How the Hunt Brothers Cornered the Silver Market and Then Lost it All

TL:DR: yes its long. Grab a beer.

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Until his dying day in 2014, Nelson Bunker Hunt, who had once been the world’s wealthiest man, denied that he and his brother plotted to corner the global silver market.
Sure, back in 1980, Bunker, his younger brother Herbert, and other members of the Hunt clan owned roughly two-thirds of all the privately held silver on earth. But the historic stockpiling of bullion hadn’t been a ploy to manipulate the market, they and their sizable legal team would insist in the following years. Instead, it was a strategy to hedge against the voracious inflation of the 1970s—a monumental bet against the U.S. dollar.
Whatever the motive, it was a bet that went historically sour. The debt-fueled boom and bust of the global silver market not only decimated the Hunt fortune, but threatened to take down the U.S. financial system.
The panic of “Silver Thursday” took place over 35 years ago, but it still raises questions about the nature of financial manipulation. While many view the Hunt brothers as members of a long succession of white collar crooks, from Charles Ponzi to Bernie Madoff, others see the endearingly eccentric Texans as the victims of overstepping regulators and vindictive insiders who couldn’t stand the thought of being played by a couple of southern yokels.
In either case, the story of the Hunt brothers just goes to show how difficult it can be to distinguish illegal market manipulation from the old fashioned wheeling and dealing that make our markets work.
The Real-Life Ewings
Whatever their foibles, the Hunts make for an interesting cast of characters. Evidently CBS thought so; the family is rumored to be the basis for the Ewings, the fictional Texas oil dynasty of Dallas fame.
Sitting at the top of the family tree was H.L. Hunt, a man who allegedly purchased his first oil field with poker winnings and made a fortune drilling in east Texas. H.L. was a well-known oddball to boot, and his sons inherited many of their father’s quirks.
For one, there was the stinginess. Despite being the richest man on earth in the 1960s, Bunker Hunt (who went by his middle name), along with his younger brothers Herbert (first name William) and Lamar, cultivated an image as unpretentious good old boys. They drove old Cadillacs, flew coach, and when they eventually went to trial in New York City in 1988, they took the subway. As one Texas editor was quoted in the New York Times, Bunker Hunt was “the kind of guy who orders chicken-fried steak and Jello-O, spills some on his tie, and then goes out and buys all the silver in the world.”
Cheap suits aside, the Hunts were not without their ostentation. At the end of the 1970s, Bunker boasted a stable of over 500 horses and his little brother Lamar owned the Kansas City Chiefs. All six children of H.L.’s first marriage (the patriarch of the Hunt family had fifteen children by three women before he died in 1974) lived on estates befitting the scions of a Texas billionaire. These lifestyles were financed by trusts, but also risky investments in oil, real estate, and a host of commodities including sugar beets, soybeans, and, before long, silver.
The Hunt brothers also inherited their father’s political inclinations. A zealous anti-Communist, Bunker Hunt bankrolled conservative causes and was a prominent member of the John Birch Society, a group whose founder once speculated that Dwight Eisenhower was a “dedicated, conscious agent” of Soviet conspiracy. In November of 1963, Hunt sponsored a particularly ill-timed political campaign, which distributed pamphlets around Dallas condemning President Kennedy for alleged slights against the Constitution on the day that he was assassinated. JFK conspiracy theorists have been obsessed with Hunt ever since.
In fact, it was the Hunt brand of politics that partially explains what led Bunker and Herbert to start buying silver in 1973.
Hard Money
The 1970s were not kind to the U.S. dollar.
Years of wartime spending and unresponsive monetary policy pushed inflation upward throughout the late 1960s and early 1970s. Then, in October of 1973, war broke out in the Middle East and an oil embargo was declared against the United States. Inflation jumped above 10%. It would stay high throughout the decade, peaking in the aftermath of the Iranian Revolution at an annual average of 13.5% in 1980.
Over the same period of time, the global monetary system underwent a historic transformation. Since the first Roosevelt administration, the U.S. dollar had been pegged to the value of gold at a predictable rate of $35 per ounce. But in 1971, President Nixon, responding to inflationary pressures, suspended that relationship. For the first time in modern history, the paper dollar did not represent some fixed amount of tangible, precious metal sitting in a vault somewhere.
For conservative commodity traders like the Hunts, who blamed government spending for inflation and held grave reservations about the viability of fiat currency, the perceived stability of precious metal offered a financial safe harbor. It was illegal to trade gold in the early 1970s, so the Hunts turned to the next best thing.
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Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics; chart by Priceonomics

As an investment, there was a lot to like about silver. The Hunts were not alone in fleeing to bullion amid all the inflation and geopolitical turbulence, so the price was ticking up. Plus, light-sensitive silver halide is a key component of photographic film. With the growth of the consumer photography market, new production from mines struggled to keep up with demand.
And so, in 1973, Bunker and Herbert bought over 35 million ounces of silver, most of which they flew to Switzerland in specifically designed airplanes guarded by armed Texas ranch hands. According to one source, the Hunt’s purchases were big enough to move the global market.
But silver was not the Hunts' only speculative venture in the 1970s. Nor was it the only one that got them into trouble with regulators.
Soy Before Silver
In 1977, the price of soybeans was rising fast. Trade restrictions on Brazil and growing demand from China made the legume a hot commodity, and both Bunker and Herbert decided to enter the futures market in April of that year.
A future is an agreement to buy or sell some quantity of a commodity at an agreed upon price at a later date. If someone contracts to buy soybeans in the future (they are said to take the “long” position), they will benefit if the price of soybeans rise, since they have locked in the lower price ahead of time. Likewise, if someone contracts to sell (that’s called the “short” position), they benefit if the price falls, since they have locked in the old, higher price.
While futures contracts can be used by soybean farmers and soy milk producers to guard against price swings, most futures are traded by people who wouldn’t necessarily know tofu from cream cheese. As a de facto insurance contract against market volatility, futures can be used to hedge other investments or simply to gamble on prices going up (by going long) or down (by going short).
When the Hunts decided to go long in the soybean futures market, they went very, very long. Between Bunker, Herbert, and the accounts of five of their children, the Hunts collectively purchased the right to buy one-third of the entire autumn soybean harvest of the United States.
To some, it appeared as if the Hunts were attempting to corner the soybean market.
In its simplest version, a corner occurs when someone buys up all (or at least, most) of the available quantity of a commodity. This creates an artificial shortage, which drives up the price, and allows the market manipulator to sell some of his stockpile at a higher profit.
Futures markets introduce some additional complexity to the cornerer’s scheme. Recall that when a trader takes a short position on a contract, he or she is pledging to sell a certain amount of product to the holder of the long position. But if the holder of the long position just so happens to be sitting on all the readily available supply of the commodity under contract, the short seller faces an unenviable choice: go scrounge up some of the very scarce product in order to “make delivery” or just pay the cornerer a hefty premium and nullify the deal entirely.
In this case, the cornerer is actually counting on the shorts to do the latter, says Craig Pirrong, professor of finance at the University of Houston. If too many short sellers find that it actually costs less to deliver the product, the market manipulator will be stuck with warehouses full of inventory. Finance experts refer to selling the all the excess supply after building a corner as “burying the corpse.”
“That is when the price collapses,” explains Pirrong. “But if the number of deliveries isn’t too high, the loss from selling at the low price after the corner is smaller than the profit from selling contracts at the high price.”
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The Chicago Board of Trade trading floor. Photo credit: Jeremy Kemp

Even so, when the Commodity Futures Trading Commission found that a single family from Texas had contracted to buy a sizable portion of the 1977 soybean crop, they did not accuse the Hunts of outright market manipulation. Instead, noting that the Hunts had exceeded the 3 million bushel aggregate limit on soybean holdings by about 20 million, the CFTC noted that the Hunt’s “excessive holdings threaten disruption of the market and could cause serious injury to the American public.” The CFTC ordered the Hunts to sell and to pay a penalty of $500,000.
Though the Hunts made tens of millions of dollars on paper while soybean prices skyrocketed, it’s unclear whether they were able to cash out before the regulatory intervention. In any case, the Hunts were none too pleased with the decision.
“Apparently the CFTC is trying to repeal the law of supply and demand,” Bunker complained to the press.
Silver Thursday
Despite the run in with regulators, the Hunts were not dissuaded. Bunker and Herbert had eased up on silver after their initial big buy in 1973, but in the fall of 1979, they were back with a vengeance. By the end of the year, Bunker and Herbert owned 21 million ounces of physical silver each. They had even larger positions in the silver futures market: Bunker was long on 45 million ounces, while Herbert held contracts for 20 million. Their little brother Lamar also had a more “modest” position.
By the new year, with every dollar increase in the price of silver, the Hunts were making $100 million on paper. But unlike most investors, when their profitable futures contracts expired, they took delivery. As in 1973, they arranged to have the metal flown to Switzerland. Intentional or not, this helped create a shortage of the metal for industrial supply.
Naturally, the industrialists were unhappy. From a spot price of around $6 per ounce in early 1979, the price of silver shot up to $50.42 in January of 1980. In the same week, silver futures contracts were trading at $46.80. Film companies like Kodak saw costs go through the roof, while the British film producer, Ilford, was forced to lay off workers. Traditional bullion dealers, caught in a squeeze, cried foul to the commodity exchanges, and the New York jewelry house Tiffany & Co. took out a full page ad in the New York Times slamming the “unconscionable” Hunt brothers. They were right to single out the Hunts; in mid-January, they controlled 69% of all the silver futures contracts on the Commodity Exchange (COMEX) in New York.
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Source: New York Times

But as the high prices persisted, new silver began to come out of the woodwork.
“In the U.S., people rifled their dresser drawers and sofa cushions to find dimes and quarters with silver content and had them melted down,” says Pirrong, from the University of Houston. “Silver is a classic part of a bride’s trousseau in India, and when prices got high, women sold silver out of their trousseaus.”
According to a Washington Post article published that March, the D.C. police warned residents of a rash of home burglaries targeting silver.
Unfortunately for the Hunts, all this new supply had a predictable effect. Rather than close out their contracts, short sellers suddenly found it was easier to get their hands on new supplies of silver and deliver.
“The main factor that has caused corners to fail [throughout history] is that the manipulator has underestimated how much will be delivered to him if he succeeds [at] raising the price to artificial levels,” says Pirrong. “Eventually, the Hunts ran out of money to pay for all the silver that was thrown at them.”
In financial terms, the brothers had a large corpse on their hands—and no way to bury it.
This proved to be an especially big problem, because it wasn’t just the Hunt fortune that was on the line. Of the $6.6 billion worth of silver the Hunts held at the top of the market, the brothers had “only” spent a little over $1 billion of their own money. The rest was borrowed from over 20 banks and brokerage houses.
At the same time, COMEX decided to crack down. On January 7, 1980, the exchange’s board of governors announced that it would cap the size of silver futures exposure to 3 million ounces. Those in excess of the cap (say, by the tens of millions) were given until the following month to bring themselves into compliance. But that was too long for the Chicago Board of Trade exchange, which suspended the issue of any new silver futures on January 21. Silver futures traders would only be allowed to square up old contracts.
Predictably, silver prices began to slide. As the various banks and other firms that had backed the Hunt bullion binge began to recognize the tenuousness of their financial position, they issued margin calls, asking the brothers to put up more money as collateral for their debts. The Hunts, unable to sell silver lest they trigger a panic, borrowed even more. By early March, futures contracts had fallen to the mid-$30 range.
Matters finally came to a head on March 25, when one of the Hunts’ largest backers, the Bache Group, asked for $100 million more in collateral. The brothers were out of cash, and Bache was unwilling to accept silver in its place, as it had been doing throughout the month. With the Hunts in default, Bache did the only thing it could to start recouping its losses: it start to unload silver.
On March 27, “Silver Thursday,” the silver futures market dropped by a third to $10.80. Just two months earlier, these contracts had been trading at four times that amount.
The Aftermath
After the oil bust of the early 1980s and a series of lawsuits polished off the remainder of the Hunt brothers’ once historic fortune, the two declared bankruptcy in 1988. Bunker, who had been worth an estimated $16 billion in the 1960s, emerged with under $10 million to his name. That’s not exactly chump change, but it wasn’t enough to maintain his 500-plus stable of horses,.
The Hunts almost dragged their lenders into bankruptcy too—and with them, a sizable chunk of the U.S. financial system. Over twenty financial institutions had extended over a billion dollars in credit to the Hunt brothers. The default and resulting collapse of silver prices blew holes in balance sheets across Wall Street. A privately orchestrated bailout loan from a number of banks allowed the brothers to start paying off their debts and keep their creditors afloat, but the markets and regulators were rattled.
Silver Spot Prices Per Ounce (January, 1979 - June, 1980)
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Source: Trading Economics

In the words of then CFTC chief James Stone, the Hunts’ antics had threatened to punch a hole in the “financial fabric of the United States” like nothing had in decades. Writing about the entire episode a year later, Harper’s Magazine described Silver Thursday as “the first great panic since October 1929.”
The trouble was not over for the Hunts. In the following years, the brothers were dragged before Congressional hearings, got into a legal spat with their lenders, and were sued by a Peruvian mineral marketing company, which had suffered big losses in the crash. In 1988, a New York City jury found for the South American firm, levying a penalty of over $130 million against the Hunts and finding that they had deliberately conspired to corner the silver market.
Surprisingly, there is still some disagreement on that point.
Bunker Hunt attributed the whole affair to the political motives of COMEX insiders and regulators. Referring to himself later as “a favorite whipping boy” of an eastern financial establishment riddled with liberals and socialists, Bunker and his brother, Herbert, are still perceived as martyrs by some on the far-right.
“Political and financial insiders repeatedly changed the rules of the game,” wrote the New American. “There is little evidence to support the ‘corner the market’ narrative.”
Though the Hunt brothers clearly amassed a staggering amount of silver and silver derivatives at the end of the 1970s, it is impossible to prove definitively that market manipulation was in their hearts. Maybe, as the Hunts always claimed, they just really believed in the enduring value of silver.
Or maybe, as others have noted, the Hunt brothers had no idea what they were doing. Call it the stupidity defense.
“They’re terribly unsophisticated,” an anonymous associated was quoted as saying of the Hunts in a Chicago Tribune article from 1989. “They make all the mistakes most other people make,” said another.
p.s. credit to Ben Christopher
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The cannabis market right now is so similar to the start of the green energy market.. its nowhere near done being bullish. Save for some small dips, there will very likely be a huge bullish trend for 2021. EVEN NASDAQ AGREES. I’ve posted my positions a few times, and I’ll continue to do so. But this is my reasoning for investing in cannabis stocks in general for 2021.

• I've been a bull on cannabis since the democrats had a strong pro-cannabis platform. But what made me go balls deep into the market was that the UN changed its classification of cannabis. Countries follow the UN closely for guidance on their own classification of controlled substances. Congress has repeatedly cited the UN’s classification as one of the reasons for not changing it. Several countries immediately changed their stance on cannabis in response to this, including Israel, which In November 2020, announced that it was moving forward with a plan to legalize recreational cannabis nationally. “The country is aiming to implement recreational legalization within nine months, and even if there are delays, that means mid-to-late 2021.” (This is my reason for investing in Canadian cannabis companies, because they are already poised to expand internationally since its legal there nationwide)

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• THE SENATE IS NOW BLUE! The Georgia runoffs were won by Democrats, and they can now swing the vote left with VP Harris. She promised it as part of her platform, so we know it will be prioritized. CHUCK SHUMER SPONSORED THE MORE ACT. HE WILL BE SENATE MAJORITY LEADER. IT WILL 100% BE PRIORITIZED BETWEEN HIM AND VP HARRIS.

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• EVERYONE predicted beforehand that the republicans would win Georgia... everyone talked down decriminalization passing the house because of they believed it would NEVER pass the republican majority senate. But the left spent more than any senate race in history to encourage voters to go out and vote. Only once the race started did it become clear that the left had a chance. Then some gains from the surprise that they won. However the gains from 1/5 onwards definitely hasn’t been priced in for all the future legislation, because some of it will be completely new legislation that wasn’t possible to consider before without a blue senate. THIS HASN'T BEEN PRICED INTO THE MARKET YET.

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• The SAFE BANKING ACT has bipartisan support, and is likely to pass BEFORE decriminalization because it is tied into some stimulus bills.

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• The government is broke post-COVID. There is a terrible image of the police. They don’t want to waste more resources on cannabis related crimes that would be fixed under decriminalization. And the tax revenue from decriminalization would be significant. Decriminalization (THE MORE ACT) opens up the borders to interstate-commerce and international import/export. This would all trickle down into Uncle Sam’s empty pockets.

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• New York Governor Cuomo announced on Jan 6 his plan to legalize marijuana for adult use (right after New Jersey vote, as I anticipated in my last post) as part of his State of the State agenda. The next step is a ripple out on the North East. NY didn’t want to miss out on tax revenue, neither will any of the other states in the northeast within driving distance of NJ and NY. This is Cuomo’s third attempt in three years to legalize adult-use cannabis in the state; last year, Cuomo included a legalization proposal in his state budget, but the plan was ultimately cut in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Other ongoing state legislature:

• Rhode Island: Regulators have received 45 applications for six new medical cannabis dispensary licenses in the state. If all applicants meet the requirements for a license, six will randomly be selected in a lottery to operate retail locations in different regions across the state. Read more
• Missouri: Rep. Shamed Dogan has filed legislation that would place an adult-use cannabis legalization measure on the state’s 2022 ballot. Meanwhile, Missourians for a New Approach has announced plans for a separate 2022 ballot initiative after an unsuccessful signature campaign to get the issue before voters in 2020. Read more
• Alabama: Sen. Tim Melson plans to reintroduce a medical cannabis legalization bill this year. Medical cannabis legislation passed the Alabama Senate during the 2020 session, but failed to clear the House. Read more
• Illinois: Illinois lawmakers have proposed the creation of 75 new cannabis retail licenses to give disadvantaged and minority applicants a second chance at licensing following the controversial licensing lottery to issue an initial 75 dispensary licenses. A work group made up of lawmakers and members of Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s administration met this week to finalize details of the bill, which will be introduced in a lame-duck session that starts Jan. 8, before new lawmakers are sworn in Jan. 13. Read more
• Minnesota: House Majority Leader Ryan Winkler is again renewing his push to legalize adult-use cannabis in the state, announcing plans to reintroduce a legalization bill this year. Winkler told WCCO that he sees “Senate leadership as being the number one obstacle,” but said that if lawmakers agreed to place an adult-use legalization initiative on Minnesota’s 2022 ballot, “it would pass overwhelmingly.” Read more
• Virginia: Del. Steve Heretick has reintroduced a bill to legalize adult-use cannabis. Heretick has proposed legislation related to decriminalization and legalization in the past, and this year’s bill would legalize the cultivation, sale and consumption of cannabis in the state. Read more
• Connecticut: Gov. Ned Lamont renewed his push for adult-use legalization during his State of the State address Jan. 6, announcing that it is a priority for the new legislative session. Connecticut’s 2021 legislative session opened Jan. 6, and Lamont, a Democrat, kicks off the session with increased majorities in the House and Senate, which could increase his chances of passing an adult-use legalization bill. Read more

Now that you understand why I’m going green, here’s my reasoning for my positions.
TLRY (Tilray)

• largest cannabis company in the world by revenue post merger. Will run out of Seattle and New York City. New York Legalization on top of senate turning blue is a big catalyst for TLRY.
• Merger hasn’t completed yet, and the merger happened before the senate went blue.. that was the gamble APHA was making, and they won. The sky is the limit now. When they merge, they will reduce expenses and be much more likely to post profitable quarters. (This is why mergers have so much hype; the sum is > than their parts because they can reduce operating expenses while maintaining revenue from the two companies)
• Tilray CEO Brendan Kennedy: “I think medical cannabis will be legal at the federal level, which means medical cannabis can cross state lines and be imported into the U.S., like we export cannabis from Canada and Portugal to about 15 countries now,” Kennedy said. “Anyone who thinks there’s a state-specific medical market is wrong.” As for the recreational market, Kennedy says the state-specific markets, with interstate trade banned, “are not going to last long.” Kennedy believes that cannabis will be distributed like alcohol and tobacco within two years’ time. That would require significant overhaul of US federal drug laws—and would significantly disrupt all US cannabis companies’ existing business models. Brendan Kennedy, the cannabis billionaire will step down as Tilray's chairman and CEO. Irwin D. Simon, Aphria's current chairman and CEO will take Kennedy's place.
• [On December 18, 2020, just three days after the U.S. Senate adopted the Cannabidiol and Marihuana Research Expansion Act (CMREA or the Act) (more on this below), the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA or the Administration) published in the Federal Register a final rule, “Controls To Enhance the Cultivation of Marihuana for Research in the United States” (Rule), which finally paves the way for DEA to issue additional licenses to grow “marihuana” (i.e., cannabis) for research purposes.](https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/on-heels-of-senate-s-adoption-of-36129/)

GNLN (Greenlane Holdings)

• One of the largest global sellers of premium cannabis accessories. Pax/JUUL/Volcano products. I’ve had Pax products, and although I prefer Arizer because of the affordability, I can’t deny Pax has quality products and is like the “iPhone” of vaporizers. I like their products, I like their branding. There’s lots of hype and loyalty, especially with their Volcano desktop vaporizer.
• Strong US brands.
• The main reason they did poorly was bad timing. They IPO’d during the year that JUULs started being banned. They’re actually at all those levels again. Theres a ton of upside potential.
• Market cap is ridiculously low for some really renown brands all because of the JUUL flavor pod ban. Everyone knows Pax, Volcano, and JUUL. But no one knows Greenlane because of the bad timing of their IPO and the subsequent JUUL flavor ban. It’s crazy. They’ve already broke all time high for the year. But I’m holding until they break 1B market cap.
• Recently became the exclusive distributor for the world's first gravity powered contactless water hookah.
• Overall i think too many people count it out just because of their IPO and subsequent decline in JUUL sales from the JUUL flavored pods ban. They definitely have the potential because of their strong branding and quality products. I’m betting on them having more high quality products in the future with equally loyal customers.

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SNDL (Sundial Growers)

• SNDL must close above $1 per share for 10 consecutive sessions by June 26, 2021 or it will be delisted from NASDAQ. People see this as a fear factor, I see this as “they will do anything necessary to reach $1 for a week so they won’t be delisted”.. IMHO reverse splitter probably isn’t on the table since they could have done that in 2020, but instead applied for a 6 month extension after announcing “alternative strategic investments”. We can already see this by their predatory loan SPAC spinoff.
• Rumors of a merger with CGC; SNDL also purchased a SPAC recently and entered an agreement with Zenabis, immediately claiming they defaulted. Turning that SPAC into predatory loan/debt repurchasing company. Imo if they want to complete a merger, it would be easy to sell ownership through that SPAC to the buyer.
• THEY RECENTLY WENT DEBT FREE by selling off unprofitable assets in the business. This means we are much more likely to see earnings in future quarters, and they are much more attractive for mergers.
• Because they are indoor growers, they are more likely to be bought up by a company in the consolidating Canadian cannabis market than fail all together. The amount of space licensed to grow cannabis in Canada is now heavily skewed toward outdoor cultivation instead of indoor for the first time, according to new data from Health Canada. A growing population of licenses for outdoor growers means that there aren’t as many indoor licenses being given out... If a company ANYWHERE IN THE WORLD wants to quickly expand into indoor growing OR into the west, they would have to purchase an existing company that has the license to quickly do so. This is WAY faster, and a guaranteed way to obtain a license rather than applying for one and waiting x amount of months and be rejected for some requirement that wasn’t met.
• From my own experience, outdoor cannabis is subpar quality to indoor grown cannabis. So a growing market for outdoor cannabis doesn’t necessarily mean its better... it is likely just cheaper. I would imagine a high quality “craft cannabis” company would want to purchase SNDL, or an existing outdoor growing company that wants to quickly expand to indoor grown cannabis. With this being a Canadian company, there’s a chance a company in another country like Israel would be interested in purchasing it in the near future.

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PLNHF (Planet 13 Holdings)

• Biggest tourist trap in Las Vegas if you’re a stoner, casual smoker, or just wanting to try it. From my own experience, I think they will continue to be successful. If I went around the US trying other brands I’d probably be more confident in putting 5-10% of my portfolio into those picks or choosing to not include them lol. Like for example, I used to have Curaleaf. But there's tons of bad feedback on Curaleaf, a friend has tried it said the nug is really subpar quality and if I tried their nug I’d probably confirm that I wouldn’t want to invest in them. With PLNHF, i’ve seen the ambience and tried the product myself. It’s definitely a lot of hype price wise, but still quality. This is my own bias showing, but I still think they’ve got solid fundamentals and excellent location/strong US branding.

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I’m well aware of other good stocks like GTBIF, CRLBF, SSPK, TCNNF, GRWG.. but these stocks haven’t been swinging as hard in response to pro-cannabis news. E.g. TLRY, SNDL, GNLN swung more than 20% some days from pro-cannabis news...I will likely reduce my current positions shortly after inauguration, after some news about the timeline for cannabis legislation, and diversify my positions more between these other good picks.
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2021 is the year of cannabis boys

Obviously this isn't set in England, but spiritually this piece is within my English Football series. The first six episodes covered Nottingham Forest's 21st century woes, the dickpic that consigned Notts County to the non-league, a reignited rivalry between Derby County and Leeds United, Stoke City's legendary shithouse era, the English Golden Generation of the 00s descending into farce, and Wimbledon FC's controversial relocation to Milton Keynes
This spin-off piece follows on from the main question raised by the Wimbledon FC/MK Dons saga. When does a club stop being a club? Is it the legal entity or something rather more intangible? These were questions posed with regards to one of the titans of Scottish football earlier this decade.
Background - The Establishment Club
Rangers FC has long cultivated an image as Scotland's 'establishment club', it isn't just a sports team, but an institution that embodies a particular way of living and worldview. Alongside other institutions like the Church of Scotland, the club is perceived as embodying traditional and small-C conservative Scottish values. Alongside Celtic (more on them in a bit) Rangers have dominated Scottish football since the league started. No club other than the two Glaswegian sides has won the league since 1985. Rangers have 54 league titles, Celtic have 51. The joint 3rd best sides (Aberdeen and the Edinburgh pair Hearts and Hibernian) have just four a piece. And yet as a legal entity the club ceased to exist in 2012. What happened? Does Rangers FC still exist?
It would be impossible to tell this tale without telling the tale of the Old Firm and the profound political, cultural, and religious divides involved. Glasgow's two largest clubs have a rivalry that defies comparison to anything in the rest of Scotland or in England. Essentially Rangers FC and its supporters represent Protestantism and British Unionism, while Celtic FC are considered to be aligned with Catholicism and Irish Nationalism. When the two sides meet, the Scottish saltire is rarely flown by supporters. Rangers supporters prefer the Union Jack or Ulster Banner, Celtic fans are likely to fly Irish tricolours. It is as if somebody took the socio-cultural conflict of Northern Ireland and transplanted it into a football ground.
Which is sort of what happened. Ultimately a big factor was migration to Glasgow in the early 20th century - Irish Catholics in Glasgow set up Celtic FC as their club, while Protestants from Northern Ireland (who are historically of largely Scottish extraction) who worked in the shipyards of the Clyde came to adopt Rangers which was located near the shipbuilding areas. Local Scots, being generally Protestant, inclined to support Rangers and many would have shared the religious and political feelings of the newcomers from Northern Ireland. This has meant that at matches both clubs have sections of support who chant about the Northern Irish conflict - some Rangers fans have a 'songbook' including the Loyalist anthem The Sash (which commemorates King William III, the Dutchman invited to become King of England and Scotland who defeated a Catholic army at the Boyne in 1690), while Celtic fans might sing in support of the Irish Republican Army. This involves by no means the majority of supporters, but it is important in setting the atmosphere at games.
Rangers FC had until the late 1980s an alleged policy of not signing any player known to be a Catholic. This led legendary Celtic manager Jock Stein to joke that if offered a Catholic or a Protestant to sign for Celtic, he would sign the Protestant in the knowledge that Rangers would never sign the Catholic. I cannot find evidence of any player ever transferring directly between Celtic and Rangers in the postwar era, with the low number of players who have turned out for both having had a 3rd club in between. Another example of the intensity is the way in which the clubs traditionally share shirt sponsors. This sounds innocuous, but the only way to sponsor one of the clubs without triggering a mass boycott by the other supporters was to simply sponsor both.
No other football rivalry in Britain has a dynamic like this (Liverpool and Everton did to a far lesser extent before about the 1960s, but sectarianism largely died out there decades ago), even in the days when hooliganism was a serious blight on English football it never quite reached the sort of scenes on display at the 1980 Scottish Cup Final.
Which club is the 'biggest'? It is impossible to say. Rangers have had more League titles, but Celtic being the first British club to win a European Cup in 1967 is a fairly potent trump card. What is without a doubt is that they are the two best supported Scottish clubs and their rivalry is possibly like no other.
Chasing the Rainbow
Avid readers of this series will notice a theme. The 1990s were a boom time for football and everyone involved in the sport. TV revenue started to really take off, as did the prizes for winning European competitions. Many clubs sought to capitalise on the windfall and Rangers were no exception.
Their chairman, Sir David Murray, had become one of Scotland's weathiest businessmen by leveraging debts against future revenue. He spent big on Rangers in the hope that they would win a major European trophy and repay his investment. Top players like Paul Gascoigne came to Rangers where before it was fairly rare for big name players from other leagues to move to Scotland. Domestically his investments paid off, from 1989-97 Rangers won nine League titles in a row, equalling the record set by Jock Stein's great Celtic side between 1966-74.
Unfortunately this did not translate to the windfall a Champion's League win would have given. While Murray was bankrolling Rangers, other clubs around Europe were likewise chasing the new massive financial prizes. Rangers came close to getting past the group stage of the new Champion's League format in 1992-93, but no Scottish club would enter a Champion's League knockout round until Rangers do so in 2005-06.
The debts mounted and Murray sought ways to manage the debts and hedge them against future revenue anticipated from TV fees and European prize money. He allowed the Bank of Scotland to buy a stake in the club with a mortgage allowing them to recover their losses in the event of the club defaulting on its repayments. Nothing to worry about, surely? David Murray had become a wildly successful businessman by effectively managing credit lines and debt against future income to fund expansion.
But a far bigger problem was just three small letters.
EBT
Put simply, Employee Benefit Trusts are a way of not paying tax, it was legal in some cases at the time but is generally illegal now.
Murray sought, from 2000, to pay his players through EBTs. This meant that they would be able to offer high net wages to players while cutting tax costs. In Britain most employees have all their tax payments deducted by the employer, so schemes like this and ones where employees are paid in dividends are a way of essentially not paying tax.
By 2010 HMRC had begun to investigate the case, concluding that Rangers may have evaded £49m in taxes, a vast amount for a club already overleveraged in debt in a league not known for being particularly wealthy.
By about 2008 Murray had had enough of Rangers and was looking to sell up. He had gambled and lost huge amounts of money on the club, which was now saddled with huge amounts of debt. The prospect of paying £49m to HMRC if the courts ruled against Rangers deterred any serious buyer and it took some years for a buyer to emerge. Another serious issue was the sheer amount of debt Rangers had to Lloyds (who had taken over the Bank of Scotland), with fans in 2009 threatening a boycott of the banking chain if the bank called in its debts.
Would a buyer emerge and save Rangers from this predicament?
Well, a buyer would emerge in 2011. Not the other bit, sadly.
Enter Craig Whyte
Craig Whyte had once been Scotland's youngest millionaire as a venture capitalist. He bought the club for £1 from Murray but desperately needed to leverage some funds to settle the Lloyds debt, so he borrowed a cool £26.7m against future season ticket sales. This on the face of it should have set alarm bells, even the biggest clubs don't make huge amounts of money on matchday tickets in relation to their massive costs.
Whyte also indulged in a bit of tax fiddling. But rather than setting up an avoidance mechanism and letting the lawyers fight it out, he just stopped sending Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs the income tax payments for the club players and staff. Definitely not the sophistication of Murray.
Matters only got worse. In early 2012 BBC Scotland aired a BAFTA-winning documentary about Whyte and Rangers, which revealed that Whyte had been once banned from working as a company director for seven years. The Scottish Football Association agreed, Whyte was not a 'Fit and Proper' person to own a football club.
At about this time Rangers entered administration. When this happens in Britain, the company's creditors can agree to a 'Company Voluntary Arrangement' (CVA) which essentially means agreeing a plan for the company to continue operating while in administration so the creditors can recover their debts. HMRC, with the outstanding £49m tax case from Murray's era plus the money owed by Whyte's outright failure to pay tax, voted against allowing this to happen.
In the absence of a CVA and agreement with creditors, this meant that Rangers FC as a company ceased to exist in June 2012, with all assets transferred to 'Sevco Scotland Ltd'.
Could this have been avoided? In the end, the £49m owed to HMRC which proved such a millstone has been substantially reduced and the cases around it are still ongoing. But ultimately, Rangers had vast amounts of debt not just to HMRC.
For his part Whyte would be bankrupted by his loan to buy the club and would be faced with a far longer ban on acting as a company director.
Sevco FC?
Sevco inherited everything Rangers had. The players had an opportunity to transfer their employment to Sevco, which also gained Ibrox Stadium and Ranger's membership of the Scottish Premier League.
For the club owned by Sevco to be able to play in the SPL next season, 2/3rds of members had to vote in favour. Clubs such as Aberdeen, Dundee United, and Hearts bowed to fan feeling that Rangers could not continue where they left off. In the end, no club voted in favour of Rangers remaning in the SPL with only Kilmarnock abstaining. This event would generate a huge amount of bad feeling and bitterness from Rangers fans who felt that supporters of other clubs were content to throw them under a bus for reasons not of their making. There was definitely a sense of schadenfreude from supporters of other clubs, watching Scotland's 'Establishment Club' go to the wall.
Could Rangers join the Scottish First Division and gain promotion to the Premier League? First Division clubs didn't want to face the consequences of a Premier League problem, so they also rejected it.
In the end, the Scottish Football League allowed Rangers FC to rejoin the league in the Third Division, a largely semi-professional league three divisions below the Premier League. Their first competitive game was a Challenge Cup (competition for the two lower leagues in the Scottish Football League) tie against Brechin City, who represent a sleepy town of just 7,000.
Clawing their way back up
Most of Ranger's players had refused their statutory right to transfer employment to the new company. Nonetheless, the 2012-13 season started well with their first home league game setting a world record for the best attended fourth division match in history as over 49,000 attended Rangers vs East Stirlingshire. A strong league performance saw Rangers confirm promotion into the 3rd tier by the end of March.
2013-14 saw another promotion as Rangers had an unbeaten season in League One (the leagues were renamed at about this time) to secure promotion to the Championship, the first league which would be wholly filled with professional clubs after the mix of professional and semi-professional that plies their trade in Scotland's lower leagues.
Rangers didn't make it three back-to-back promotions as they lost a promotion play-off final 6-1 to Motherwell, one of Scotland's more successful non-Old Firm clubs who had suffered a stint in the 2nd tier.
During this season they met Celtic in the cup. Some Celtic fans placed an advert in a newspaper claiming that the 'Old Firm' was over and while they had enjoyed a rivalry with Rangers FC they did not recognise the new club as the same entity. This caused some controversy, not just with Rangers fans, but with Celtic fans who were indeed looking forward to the first Old Firm in some time. The accusation that Rangers were 'Zombies' or 'Sevco FC' would become a common one from Celtic supporters at games and remains as such.
Rangers won the 2016-15 Scottish Championship to secure promotion, while also beating Celtic in a Scottish Cup semi-final. But, the 'Gruesome Twosome' of Scottish football would once again grace the top flight together.
Same as before?
Celtic had done very well out of the previous few years. They had won a succession of League titles at a canter with the accompanying European qualification giving them financial muscle the other clubs couldn't compete with. Rangers finished a respectable 3rd, but Celtic once again dominated the league.
After an embarrassing elimination out of the Europa League at the hands of a semi-professional side from Luxembourg, Rangers didn't improve on their 3rd place and Celtic won again. It wasn't until 2018-19 that Rangers finished 2nd.
With Celtic winning again.
Could Celtic's domination be broken before they won 10 titles in a row and broke the record jointly held by 1960s-70s Celtic and 1990s Rangers? Perhaps not yet.
2019-20 started well, Rangers had a fantastic run in the Europa League under Steven Gerrard and beat Celtic at their ground for the first time since 2010. COVID put paid to an increasingly close title race with Celtic awarded the title based on Points Per Game with the season abandoned.
This season has very much been Ranger's season though. At the time of writing they seem, barring a miracle/disaster, overwhemingly likely to win the League this year and deny Celtic the coveted ten in a year.
Postscript
Is the Rangers FC of today the same club as that pre-2012? Displays from Celtic fans would say not, and as a legal entity it certainly isn't the same. But UEFA allows for 'sporting continuity' for a club in terms of identity and honours even if the holding company or corporate structure changes. This suggests something that many football supporters would agree with - a club is as much as community asset as it is a company or business and the stories we have looked at explore the issues when the business and the community collide.
Next time, we'll take a look at how Arsenal Fan TV revolutionised football social media while turning their club into a laughing stock

I will be going through each and every feasible option of manager, citing their style, personality, history and strengths/weakness. I will also be looking at their respective situations in determining the likelihood of acquiring them.

Where We Are and What We Need

The current situation Madrid finds itself with is more complicated given the pandemic, financially the club has been said to have no money to spend next summer, but their is conflicting reports suggesting we could very well potentially spend for the right targets in the right situation. However, free signings seem to still be plausible with the strong Alaba links. There is also returning loan players or players who've been given limited chances, who can help fill needed roles, or players from Castilla's.
Currently we have players ranging in all different kinds of styles, roles, positions, abilities and personalities. This allows for a lot of tactical maneuverability, meaning we have a lot of the personnel needed to play any style realistically without a need for a prolonged managerial transition. With that though, we have a lot of players ranging in prestige and mentality, some are at the top, whilst others are projects expected to grow into that level. This means despite a large amount of youth, the manager still needs prestige and a reputation high enough to garner respect and command a dressing room.
The expectations for Madrid will most likely not change, and patience will depend on the manager (reputation as a playemanager, their vision and/or how the relationship is with the board/Perez). Despite being in a "transition period" expectations for Madrid wont change, its the curse of being the most successful team in the world. The manager will be expected to get results, winning at least one major trophy or competing highly in most competitions. With that we need a manager who can win now but also help to build the team for themselves or others in the future for much more success.
Its unclear when Zidane will be sacked, most reports suggest hell last until the end of the season, others state he has until we get knocked out of all major coemptions, in the worst case the team is in a bad position and needs a change to save next season on top of this season, a lot of fans want him gone now. With unclarity on Zidane's timetable, availability of managers also change. Some are available now but could be gone soon whilst others are more available at the end of the campaign.
With the large amount of youth we need a manager who can successfully build them into great players, and turning some into Madrid class. The manager needs to also combine youth with experience effectively. in order to continue competing.
Finally, the manager needs to instill confidence in fans. A brand of football that can be entertaining, a personality that makes fans root for them, and little-to-no drama.

Options

In this list we'll just be giving names of all managers of the necessary level or potentially step up to that level, managers who miss out of the next process will be crossed off, those managers miss out due to clashes with club/fans, financially unfeasible in relation to quality, and no interest from managers. It should be noted this includes managers available now or in the summer, as some aren't available now but are more so in the summer. Manager = unattainable.

Jürgen Klopp	Ole Gunnar Solskjaer	Brendan Rodgers	Carlo Ancelotti
José Mourinho	Ralph Hassenhutl	Frank Lampard	Mikel Arteta
Marcelo Bielsa	Pep Guardiola	Nuno Espirito Santos	Diego Simione
Ronald Koeman	Julen Lopetegui	Unai Emery	Imanol Alguacil
Hans-Dieter Flick	Julian Nagelsmann	Peter Bosz	Marco Rose
Adi Hütter	Stefano Pioli	Antonio Conte	Gennaro Gattuso
Paulo Fonseca	Gian Piero Gasperini	Simone Inzaghi	Andrea Pirlo
Mauricio Pochettino	Christophe Galtier	Ernesto Valverde	Quique Setien
Thomas Tuchel	Massimiliano Allegri	Maurizio Sarri	Luciano Spalletti
Guti	Raul	Marcelo Gallardo	Leonardo Jardim
Marcelino García Toral	Roberto Martinez	Joachim Low	Luis Enrique
Roberto Mancini	Frank de Boer	Erik Ten Hag	Gareth Southgate
Niko Kovac	Ryan Giggs	Lucien Frave	Santiago Solari
Ralf Rangnick

Witling Down the Options

Next the names I suggest wont be continuing because of their own respective falters being too big of a risk to consider.
Unai Emery - Villarreal 2023
Despite Emery's clear issues he's still a top manager, however his inability to progress past the Quarter Finals with a stacked PSG team as well as the historic defeat to Barcelona, on top of his unimpressive time at Arsenal shows he need to do well with Villarreal for a while before its a gamble worth taking.
Marcelo Bielsa - Leeds 2021
Bielsa is a manager many managers look up to, his current Leeds team is one of the most entraining in the world. However his style is known to take a while to implement, often it hasn't worked in the past. Despite his long managerial history he's not got much to show in terms of success. Though he might be a fun manager it seems like too big of a gamble, he needs to show more longevity and/or success if he is to come into a top-top team.
Imanol Alguacil - Real Sociedad 2023
Imanol has taken Sociedad to a level expectant of their history and personally, he has them playing fun football mostly. Along with his knowledge of the league and Nationality on top of other things he'd be perfect if only he had the experience. Coaching only around 100 matches of top flight football isn't quite enough unless you did something truly unbelievable. He's a manager to definitely keep an eye on, however its not the right time for him.
Peter Bosz - Bayer Leverkusen 2022
Peter Bosz is definitely someone who is making a name for himself, he has Leverkusen 3rd in the table and playing some attacking football. Very reminiscent of his time at Ajax, when he was truly a name to talk about. However that time at Dortmund can't be forgotten so quickly, 2 cumulative good seasons isn't enough. But he is someone to keep an eye on.
Adi Hutter - Frankfurt 2023
Hutter has been making waves in Frankfurt, having been brought in from a very successful time at Young Boys he's done very well in the last 2.5 years. He's shown to get the best out of a competent strike force, specifically Jovic. However like most managers on this list he isn't quite there yet, but definitely one to watch.
Christophe Galtier - Lille 2021
What more can you say, he was chosen by Luis Campos (the man who constructed Lille's transfers) to take helm and lead them into a very good few seasons. Mixing youth and experience, playing a complete style. He garnered a lot of experience in his career, however he needs another good stepping stone before going to a top-top club. If he carries on doing well at Lille or another club, definitely bring him aboard.
Luciano Spalletti - FREE
Luciano has a very large CV, managing a lot of clubs, but specifically Roma and Inter. However his style isn't that great, specifically at Inter he made them play very boring and uneventful football. His personality is a mix bag. Though he did well at Roma. He's been out of a job since the end of the 2018/19 season, given that it doesn't seem wise to go for him. maybe he can turn things around but its uncertain.
Leonardo Jardim - FREE
His Monaco side was the epidemy of exciting, it was youthful, creative, well balanced, and punched all the way to very high heights. However when the selling spree occurred Jardim couldn't cope, and even after returning in the same season he couldn't reignite the fire once seen. Having been out of a job over a year he hasn't recaptured the quality needed to gamble on him.
Roberto Mancini - Italy NT 2022
Mancini has one of the largest CV's out of all the coaches, having managed clubs like Inter, City and Lazio since the early 2000s. However its been clear his coaching has been stagnating and declining, the move to Italy seemed like it could rejuvenate him, however though he's done better then the others he hasn't done quite enough to warrant his name being considered, could very well change in the future.
Niko Kovac - Monaco 2023
After having a great time at Frankfurt he went to Bayern and did very poorly, even more so in retrospect when Flick came in and managed to turn what seemed to be a trophyless season into another historic treble winning season. After his appointment to Monaco he's been helping to take them back to the top. His reputation after Bayern has been very much hurt, he clearly wasn't at that level but similar to others, maybe he can in time. As of now though he's not good enough.
Ryan Giggs - Wales NT 2022
Giggs has a very large reputation thanks to his playing career, however he's not done enough as a manager to warrant an opportunity. if this was MU he'd probably move up the list given his legend status, but in Madrid it cant be said he should.
Lucien Frave - FREE
Played attractive football at times, and was very highly considered at points in his career, however getting sacked by Dortmund rightfully so definitely warrants him getting punted off the list. Potentially can be a very good coach, but as of now, definitely not.
Gareth Southgate - England NT 2022
Took England very far, though not super attractive football, he did very well with Enlgand. However language barrier could be an issue along with other things. He doesn't seem like the right fit at all for Madrid, but definitely is garnering a big reputation.
Frank Lampard - FREE
Derby to Chelsea seemed to be too big of a step up, so Chelsea to Madrid seems unfathomable. Definitely a promising manager however his issues with the board, media and players seems too toxic in-it-of-itself to consider him. He needs a lot more time to build experience.
Paulo Fonseca - Roma 2022
A promising manager with a lot of experience, he's lacking the necessary pop with Roma to consider him any further, though he's doing well with them, in comparison to managers before him, he's not taking them much if any higher. He's just a caliber below at the moment.
Roberto Martinez - Belgium NT 2022
A manager with a less then impressive club CV, and playing CV in relation to Madrid. He certainly has done very well with Belgium, however he hasn't done enough yet. The big links to Barcelona definitely did his reputation very well however he needs to do more with this quality Belgium team if he's to be considered more.

Shortlisted Options

We'll be looking at each candidate in this section, breaking them down, before moving onto the next section where we'll place them numerically.

Jürgen Klopp	Ole Gunnar Solskjaer	Ralph Hassenhutl	Erik Ten Hag
Nuno Espirito Santos	Julian Nagelsmann	Hans-Dieter Flick	Antonio Conte
Marco Rose	Gennaro Gattuso	Simone Inzaghi	Joachim Low
Gian Piero Gasperini	Massimiliano Allegri	Maurizio Sarri	Marcelo Gallardo
Guti	Raul

Jurgen Klopp - Liverpool 2024
Probably everyone's most ideal candidate, Jurgen Klopp has been making waves in football for many years now, as of now he's considered one of the top 3 managers in the world. With about 20 years of top flight coaching experience he makes up for his downfall in lack of player reputation. His 4231/433 approach has garnered praise for his use of gegenpressing, in recent times he's made very large adaptations that's seen his side use possession based football a lot more. This has seen Klopp's team become a very complete side, able to attack, defend and control games. He's excellently balanced youth, world class players and turning players into class/world class. His trophy cabinet, along with how he handles big games is very impressive.
His personality gets fans and the board on his side, whilst also having that egotistical approach that makes you a winner. His locker-room is very warming and their is very few times controversy. At 53 he's at a good age, not too young or old.
His biggest complaints could come from his style taking a bit too long to implement, with his reputation he will be awarded patience but its unclear whether it will be enough or if he can handle it. There's also the issue with his contract, it could cost Madrid a lot to bring him in, it seems very clear he wont move in the winter but its unclear if he'd even want a move in the summer. Finally the language barrier could pose a problem, for himself and his staff.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer - Manchester United 2022
Ole is a name many will question, and rightfully so. He doesn't have the managerial pedigree yet, though he does have a large reputation as a player, its unclear if that could translate to Madrid.
However he's certainly an interesting option. His style of play is focused primarily on counterattacking, however he is very adaptable formation wise. Usually he has done well to pick up points against bigger opposition. He seems like a coach who can win something with a team. He does well to implement youth, focusing on local talents and club prospects, but can also use the quality in a team. He's a manager whose been in high pressure situations before and has handled them well, he's taken MU to the top of the table this season, fighting for the league.
At 47 he's at a good age. However language could be an issue on top of adapting to the league, as he's never been in that process before to such extremes.
Ralph Hassenhutl - Southampton 2024
Another questionable name on the shortlist, he's certainly a character. He's known to be a passionate manager, oozing such emotion and energy onto his players and fans. His style is very much about Gegenpressing, press hard and strong, win the ball, and look to exploit the opponents. Switching between a 4222/442 and a 352.
Whilst he doesn't have to most Impressive current job, managing a midtable Prem team, he has somewhat of an interesting CV. Having managed Leipzig to a second place in their first to flight season, but a poor 6th placed finish and a bad run in the UCL/Europa League left him getting the sack.
The 53 y/o is doing very well with the Saints, having them play attractive football. He's done well to get players into great form, implement youth, however its unclear how he'd handle star talent. His biggest issues come from language, contract, and maybe not being at the level needed quite yet.
Erik Ten Hag - Ajax 2022
Someone who doesn't quite have a large playing reputation for Madrid's standards, but his managerial CV potentially makes up for that. Erik Ten Hag has been impressing at Ajax with the way he's been able to successfully integrate youth players and get the best out of older players. He has around 5 years of managerial experience at a professional level, whilst also managing Bayern's B team and being assistant coach for 3 seasons prior.
His ajax team were well known as they beat Madrid a few years ago on there way down multiple successful clashes in the UCL. There possession based approach with emphasis on counter pressing, really epitomized attractive football at a possession based level, the constant fluid movements make it not very tiki taka like but more modern. He likes a 4231/433, with all the players, especially fullbacks having good technical agility.
His shortcomings are clear though, the massive differences between Eredivise and La Liga could see him have very Bosz level of issues. His approach could see issues Zidane has faced as their styles of play are somewhat similar. At 50 he's at a peak managerial age, whilst taking him might be a gamble, given the quality of youth, it could be worth it. Adaptation could be a problem.
Nuno Espirito Santos - Wolves 2023
A manager whose been earning a lot of attention the last few years, Nuno is an interesting case. He doesn't have an amazing playing career but more Journeymen which bodes well for his adaptation. He also has a large amount of experience having coached in Portugal, Spain and now in England, so he knows the league and speaks the language. He has a very likable personality that fans get behind and appreciate.
He is very adaptable with his style, he can play counterattacking football , or utilize possession. It all depends on the team he's coaching. At Porto he had a tough time breaking down opponents in a low block but adapted pretty well to it in time. He's against fruitless possession and wants intense creativity. He's versatile in formation, playing a 343,442,433 and so on.
His biggest problems come from his lack of experience at a top team, when he has managed a top team he's run into issues. His close connections with Jorge Mendes could also spout issues in acquiring him. At 46 y/o he's entering the perfect age range for a manager. He might not have the experience yet to warrant him taking over but he deserves to be on the shortlist of options.
Julien Nagelsmann - RB Leipzig 2023
A potential future managerial icon, Nagelsmann represents the next generation of German coaches. His experience as a manager is pretty decent, having managed top flight football for about 5 years now. He took a Hoffienheim team struggling to stay up, and turned them into a top 4 team in no time. He is able to use youth well on top of get the best out of middling players. At Leipzig not only did is he challenging Bayern for the league but he's continued to turn Leipzig into a competitive European team. Getting them into the Semi's last season in the UCL and this season beating MU to progress into the knockout stages.
He's very similar to Klopp, very warm personality but can have fire in his sole, a will to win. His style is similar to Klopp's football now, high pressing, quick vertical passes, counterattacking and using smart possession. He's adapted between a 4222, 343, 352, 4231, and 433. Of all the candidates he's shown to have one of the highest ceilings.
His major faults come with his age, at 33 y/o he's had issues keeping a locker room respecting of him in the past. At Leipzig with all the players being younger then him its not an issue, but cant be said for Madrid. His lack of player reputation means he has to have a high managerial reputation, as of now its gaining a lot of momentum but it cant be said its quite there yet. He's yet to manage truly world class players who are winners yet, so its unclear how he'll handle that situation. Language and league adaptation could be an issue as well.
Hans-Dieter Flick - Bayern 2023
A manager not many people heard of until he won the treble, Flick has blown up very quickly in the world of football. Whilst as a player he has some reputation, his managerial experience is very large. Having worked in the Bundesliga for a while, carrying different roles at certain club, he really made an impact as key figure in the German NT staff. Once he got his chance for Bayern he took it in stride.
Kovac had said Bayern were unable to press and the team looked like it wasn't going to win anything. Flick came in, instilled a system based on pressing, possession, attacking, again very similar to Nagelsmann and Klopp. He then was able to have an historic treble winning season. A lot of comparisons to Heynckes, a former Madrid manager who also won the treble with Bayern. The formation usually used is a 4231. He was able to get unbelievable production out of the team, truly making it one of the best teams in Europe if not the best. He mixes star talent, with youth, and is also able to get a lot out of others.
Biggest weakness come in the form of direct club managerial experience, he's blown up quite a lot, Bayern have started to pick up problems here and there and the question is can he handle the pressure of that situation and come out on top. Its also unclear whether he'd want to come to Madrid, as his Bayern career is just a little over a year old. Finally language and league adaptation could be a problem. At 55 y/o he's still at a good age.
Antonio Conte - Inter Milan 2022
A very questionable figure, Conte is probably the coach who carries the most baggage. However his CV cant be ignored, good playing reputation that's incredibly bolstered by a long fruitful managerial career. He's shown he can adapt to leagues and be very successful.
His style focuses on counter attacking, pressing very reluctantly, playing his favored 352 but able to adapt to a 343 if needed. He's one of the most consistently successful managers on this list. And at 51 y/o he's at a great age.
His downfalls make him a questionable option however, though he has cup and league success, he's been very unimpressive in the UCL. He's known to have issues with the board and cause drama. Usually he is a very short term manager, able to bring success but isn't a long lasting choice. His utilization of youth is few, and he often has clashes. However give him a good team and hell run with it, potentially isn't the right fit for Madrid now.
Marco Rose - Borussia Mönchengladbach 2022
Another exciting name out of Germany. Rose is a manager gaining a lot of attention for his play style and how he's turned Gladbach into consistent European qualifying team. He has a very uplifting personality and clearly knows how to make connections with his players and fans. His time at Salzburg saw some very impressive results, even against their German parent club. Whilst he doesn't have the most renowned playing CV his managerial reputation is growing very quickly. Garnering interest from Dortmund.
His style is similar to Hassanhuttl, energetic press with emphasis on counter attacking or intense vertical passes. He's done well to use youth and turn middling player into a strong team. He usually plays a 4231/4312. Madrid fans will know ho interesting his side can play. He's known to be very tactically astute along wit his staff.
Biggest issues come from how'd he adapt, as well as if this is too big of a step up, which it seems like it is. At 44 y/o he's at that very good age. But he is a manager to keep an eye on.
Gennaro Gattuso - Napoli 2021
Gattuso is a household name of a player, known for being a rough personality, he also tends to be very good with how he manages players. He seems to be one of the better man managers available. He was one of the best managers Milan has had in many years, making them look like a functional team, now at Napoli he's doing pretty good as well, even managing an Italian cup victory last season. His managerial experience isn't much however he seems to do well with big personalities.
His style of play is possession focused however its more flexible and simplified, he prioritizes hard work above anything else. Playing mainly a 433, he likes a very physically imposing striker with all round ability.
At 43 y/o he's beginning to enter a good age range for management. However his lack of experience is worrying, only having 3-4 years of top flight experience. His own kind of personality could potentially have problems with the board or certain players. Even issues with fans if pressure hits him hard enough. However he looks to be available at the end of the season at the time of writing.
Simone Inzaghi - Lazio 2021
Another manager with little experience in management and not the biggest playing CV in relation to Madrid standards. Inzaghi has done very well with his first top flight job, managing Lazio for almost 5 seasons now he's done some very impressive work, turning them into consistent Europa League qualifying team, now potentially a consistent UCL qualifying team. Inzaghi is an outside shout but never-the-less should be on the shortlist.
His preferred formation is a 352, very adaptable style, his team are known to change between a high intense press and a more conservative mid press. His teams know also how to alter between possession and counter attacking football. Inzaghi has gotten the best out of questionable players like Immobile, Luis Alberto and Correa, whilst also turning others in to highly acclaimed stars like SMS. He has won a lot of trophies, though not the most impressive (Super Copas and a Copa) its trophies none-the-less.
His major pitfalls come with his reputation maybe not being high enough, his playstyle being called a bit boring at times as well as its reliance on particularly high quality players. At 44 he's entering a good age rang for coaches. Adaptation could also be an issue on top of patience from the board and fans given his playstyle and pedigree.
Joachim Low - German NT 2022
A manager with probably the largest managing CV of anyone, surely making up for any potential shortcomings in playing. Low has really garnered a lot of praise, but more recently there are question marks over his time in Germany, with his time seemingly coming to an end soon after around 15 years of managing the team.
National team tactics don't usually translate well into club tactics and vice versa, so its unclear how he'd exactly want to play, but he's a very adaptable manger playing many different formations in the past.
His only real downfalls come from how'd he adapt to club football, as well as the language. He's had issues with the German NT recently with his decision to cut out more older players, even if they are performing miles ahead of youth. Its unclear how that'd work for Madrid but it could be either a good thing or a bad one depending on personnel. At 60 he's beginning to potentially age out, but he should definitely be up for consideration.
Gian Piero Gasperini - Atalanta 2022
Another manager whose been making waves in football with his Atalanta side. Gasperini is one of the oldest managers on this list at 62 y/o with plenty of managerial experience, a potential positive but also negative. His team is one of the most breathtaking attacking units in world football, competing with the likes of City and Liverpool for goals and shots. He's turned a relegation battling team into consistent European qualifying team, whilst also producing the most of Italy's national team players as well as other promising youth players.
His style revolves around a 343/3412/3421, high pressing football built around transition using the wings as a big point of attack. There is also a degree of freedom given to certain attackers like Illicic and Gomez, allowing them to move around and create space. Every player seems to be heavily involved in attack in some way.
Biggest issues is Atalanta are known for scoring a lot but have also had there fair share of conceding a lot of goals. Madrid can see more of how they play in the upcoming matchup. Gasperini wasn't too great at other top clubs he's managed so its unclear whether there could be an issue there. Language barrier is a potential problem on top of his age as at 62 y/o he's beginning to age out. He's definitely a gamble but one very much worth taking given the impact he's made.
Massimiliano Allegri - FREE
A manager whose been out of management longer then expected, Allegri has a very large CV of managing top clubs on top of winning a lot and being very competitive. Of all the managers on this list, he's one of the most highly decorated.
His style is a bit more conservative in defense, however it can be very entertaining in attack. Very much about adaptation, given his use of many different systems. He's a winning mentality kind of manager.
Potentially this is his downfall, any other point for Madrid he would've been a perfect acquisition But during a transition where the club needs to build itself up and figure out all of its pieces, it doesn't seem like the right time for Allegri. At 53 y/o he's at a fine age, but language could be an issue. Given his availability, despite his potential issues with boring football and being more about winning then building, he might be worth acquiring if he can get this side and certain players firing.
Maurizio Sarri - FREE
A name most probably don't fancy at Madrid, he's definitely someone who does deserve a spot on the shortlist. Known for making his way up the footballing pyramid, he definitely doesn't have the playing pedigree, however his large managerial pedigree on top of his trophy cabinet might make up for potential issues.
Preferring to play a 433 or a 4312, Sarri is all about possession and positional play, on top of organized pressing. His Napoli team played some of the most attractive football in the world, and saw many players grow in reputation. However it became clear that to play his brand of football effectively, a lot of time is needed to fully integrate the system. Despite this issue he was still successful at Chelsea, and mediocre at Juve.
His shortcomings are clear, his potential issues in play style will definitely detour his acquisition, but if Madrid are in a rebuild this might be a smart play to get him if certain amount of time is afforded. However his biggest downfalls come in his handling of the team, which didn't come off well at Chelsea and Juve, Language is an issue, smoking could be a problem, at 62 y/o he's beginning to age out as well. He definitely deserves a place on the shortlist but his potential pitfalls make him a questionable candidate.
Marcelo Gallardo - River Plate 2021
A big manager in Argentina and South America in general, Gallardo really started making global waves when he was heavily linked to Barcelona. Having a pretty ok playing CV in relation to Madrid, he really has made big waves in coaching with 13 cup wins (including 2 Copa Libertadores) in his 10 years of management.
Preferring to play a 433/4231/4312 he's mainly about possession, pressing and counter attacking football, he is very similar to Naglesmann Vertical attacking football. Considered one of the best managers to come out of South America, and specifically Argentina. He's definitely earned a high reputation, but its unclear ow well it can translate to European football ,especially to a world sized club that Madrid is.
This is on of his major shortcomings, along with potential issues in how his reputations fully translates to European football. However he's at a good age (45 y/o), knows the language, and could potentially work well with Madrid's south American talent. A big contender for the job.
Raul - Castilla
A manager with one of the largest playing CV's for Madrid if not the largest on this list, Raul is a true legend in Madrid, and knowing football nowadays, that's a near guarantee of getting the job. Though he doesn't have anywhere near the other candidates kind of top flight experience hes done well with Castilla's.
His tactical approach isn't too clear to see due to the team he is competing with, however is appears he likes a 4231/433. He has often talked about professionalism and hard work being cornerstones of his philosophy, which isn't surprising for a manger to say. He himself has suggested he needs more experience.
That's his main gripes, his lack of experience may make this a gamble not worth taking at this point in time, if Zidane is sacked mid way then potentially, but come the end of the season, it doesn't seem like a good time for Raul. At 43 y/o he's beginning to enter a good managerial age, he obviously knows the club and league, and will surely introduce youth to the forefront of Madrid. Given the nature of legends taking managerial roles, he definitely deserves a shout, but it may be too soon for a Raul, and Madrid don't want to make a mistake in giving a legend the job too soon when its not necessary.
Guti- FREE
Another highly acclaimed player, Guti is a Madrid legend, potentially making up for his lack of managerial experience. In Madrid's youth setup he did fairly well, before making his way as Besiktas assistant but subsequently got the sacking along with the manager after a season. He then got a big break with a managerial role in Spain's second division. He was also subsequently sacked after 22 games in charge after failing to get Almeria promoted, finishing in a qualification spot but failing against Girona who lost to Elche. As of now he's out of a job.
His style of play isn't too known, the way he setup Almeria isn't indicative too much of how he'd set up Madrid. So its a bit unclear. Potentially a 433/4231/4141. He did improve Almeria's placement in the league, but its been suggested that Almeria's board are very quick to sack managers who don't offer immediate success.
Its unclear how he'd do at Madrid, in a similar case to Raul, potentially coming in halfway through the season makes more sense then coming in during the summer. Though it might be unfair, his unimpressive managerial career definitely will hurt him in the consideration process for now. He's at a good age and knows the league, but unless Zidane gets the midseason sack, it doesn't seem like its the right time to rush Guti into this position. Needs a bit more experience, but given his status he will be on the shortlist.

Shortlist Rankings

TOP 5 (summer)

1. Klopp
2. Gallardo
3. Naglesmann
4. Gasperini
5. Flick
6. Allegri, Erik Ten Hag, Low, Sarri, Inzaghi, Gattuso,

I think Klopp is obviously the most anticipated choice, whether he wants to come, and we can afford to acquire him is still very unknown, however he ticks all the boxes of being suited to Madrid. Gallardo is soon to be available, his pedigree is there, and whilst its a gamble, it seems one very well worth taking at this point in time. Why not Naglesmann? His lack of reputation and experience is very worrying, I see him as a very great manager in the future but Madrid seems like too big of a step up similar to Raul and Guti. Though I still consider him third choice as maybe his ability to manage (especially given Madrid's changing environment) might see him overcome this issues. I put Gasperini in at 4th as he very much seems to suit the short term option that excites and build the team, though I can easily see people wanting Flick as 4th choice given what he's done with Bayern in such a short time, however I think he needs to show a bit more with Bayern before making that jump. He's still an impressive manager though and I think he'd be a better choice then the 6th ranked, who are managers that don't make the final five but are definitely in consideration.
Outside shouts in no particular order are Guti, Raul, Hassenhutle, Nuno, Ole, Rose and Conte. They all didn't make the cut, either because they were of lower quality, need a built more time to manifest, or might have issues with board and players on a big level (Conte).
Top 5 (now)

1. Guti
2. Raul
3. Gallardo
4. Allegri
5. Sarri
6. Nuno, Low, Inzaghi, EtH, Gattuso, Rose

Guti is available to take the helm for a short period of time, its better then Raul whose job at Castilla just began and it could cause issues in trying to plug those holes so rapidly. However he is still second best short term immediate option. Gallardo is third because his contract ends this at the end of the year, meaning he'd cost very little to bring in, as well as River Plates season is ending soon so there would be a big issue for him leaving for Madrid. However if Madrid want him to be the longer term manager bringing him in so soon could be unfair or problematic, with certain expectations and other preconceived notions occurring before he's had a fair summer to integrate with the team. Allegri is fourth, which would be considered strange given he's available for free, however this isn't the right time for him in Madrid. He'd want assurances that cant be given if you come in halfway through the season, especially given his nature as a coach. Sarri is fifth, another manager available for a free, he is fantastic however his handling of players could see problems emerging, he also needs usually a while to implement his style, so halfway through the season doesn't seem too wise but for free its a good gamble given his reputation. The 6th placed are composed of managers outside the top 5 consideration because its either unclear if they'd want to come in at this point, or aren't the right fits for this position at this point in time in comparison to the other candidates.
Outside shouts include in no particular order Klopp, Naglesmann, Hassenhutle, Ole, Conte, Gasperini and Flick. Most if not all of these managers probably wont come in halfway through the season and/or they'd be too expensive for a midseason manager.

Conclusion

What do you guys think? It seems almost certain Zidane is going to lose his job, whenever a manager loses the locker room they almost certainly lose there job unless a miracle happens, which can very certainly be a possibility but its very unlikely. This paper is to help open a general discussion about management and who you guys have for your shortlist. As it stands it seems Madrid are heavily looking at Gallardo and Naglesmann but the situations are all very complicated so who knows who can potentially get the job. This isn't meant to diss Zidane in any way but to merely open up the conversation, because as it stands, the seat will be open either soon (depending on results) or in the summer.

TraceSafe Inc. (TSF in Canada, UTOLF in U.S. with OTCQB listing in near future)
Industry: Real-Time Location Services (including Contact Tracing)
Notable Management:
Mr. Wayne Lloyd (C.E.O. of TraceSafe)
Dr. Dennis Kwan (C.E.O of TraceSafe Technologies),
Why We Love it:
By the time I finished my DD, and I did quite a bit of it, TraceSafe was an auto-buy for me and a pleasure to write about. But before diving in, I had questions; plenty of them. I believe that investors should enter every opportunity with skepticism. It gives you a clearer head and reduces potentially dangerous levels of FOMO (fear of missing out). FOMO can drive valuations of stocks to scary levels and it rarely ends well, as retail buyers like you and me buy the hype on a company while bigger players exit their positions.
Smaller growth-oriented companies can often have new, exciting technology that captures the imagination of the market, but smart investors, retail or otherwise, always look for one key milestone before buying in: validation. Without proof that a company is successfully penetrating their market, you’re buying the idea instead of the reality.
When I first looked at Tracesafe in the autumn of 2020, I was impressed by the technology they were bringing to market with an experienced management team. But I didn’t invest my hard-earned money because I needed to see real partnerships with big-market companies. Cutting edge technology, for all its impressiveness, isn’t worth much to a company without the means to monetize it. If you’re buying the idea, you’re making a leap of faith, and that is a little too close to gambling for me.
So much has happened since then that the leap of faith has become an open door to walk through. Validation is here.
But before we get to all that, let’s set the foundation, because none of this would have been possible without the management team, which is one of the most impressive parts to the story. The C.E.O., Dr. Dennis Kwan, and The C.T.O. Suresh Singamsetty, have been developing technology companies in the wearables space for years. Dr. Kwan co-founding Martian Watches, the first ever voice-enabled smartwatch. He was also V.P. of a Bluetooth company that was acquired for $160 million and he personally owns more than ten patents in wireless/bluetooth technologies. Mr. Singamsetty, the software expert, was with Dr. Kwan at Martian Watches. He owns more than 20 patents himself. The third member of the team, Gord Zeilstra, is another massive successful industry veteran. His specialty is driving companies’ global sales footprint. His success in the building of Monster.com and S.A.P. into global brands is an exciting indicator of where TraceSafe is headed.
So what about validation? Let’s begin with its partnership with Tritan Software. You probably haven’t heard of them, but I have no doubt you have heard of Carnival Cruises, Norwegian Cruise Lines, and Royal Caribbean. Tritan is the health and safety software provider for 95% of the entire global cruise line industry. I’ll put that in word form to give it the attention it deserves: NINETY FIVE PERCENT of the global cruise line industry.
Tritan is responsible for collecting, storing and securing the privacy of health information for all passengers, in addition to quality and incident management and a host of other software solutions. The CDC (Centre for Disease Control and Prevention) will most certainly have compliance requirements for resumption of sailing operations and Tritan knows this, which is why they are acting now, and acting swiftly. (Countless other companies approached Tritan, but they chose the experience and superior security of TraceSafe). The partnership was only recently announced and it remains to be seen how entwined the two companies will become, but contact tracing is only the tip of the iceberg (sorry, not the best cruise line analogy). For a clearer picture of the entire iceberg, we can look to Walt Disney’s iconic theme parks.
It is no secret that Disney theme parks have always placed a premium focus on customer experience, and one of the most effective ways they achieve this is through the “Magic Band”, which is essentially a wearable device that customers use to enter the park, unlock their hotel rooms, and buy food and merchandise. A one stop shop on your wrist.
This is where the cruise industry is headed. With a wearable on your wrist, you can enjoy all the same conveniences as the Magic Band combined with a contact tracing and safety monitoring device, all in one device.
So, that’s it? The cruise lines?
Even if it were the only partnership in the pipeline, it may have been enough to turn TraceSafe into a major global player, but it is just one of many projects, both ongoing and in the future. But even greater validation was announced just today (making me do some quick edits to this story)
TraceSafe, just today, announced a potentially game-changing purchase order. The agreement is to supply a global Tier 1 semiconductor manufacturer with 60,000 wearable units to be used across their enterprise. Professional services network Deloitte is managing the implementation of TraceSafe’s “next generation” of wearable products, which can be processed and paired within seconds, compared to about 3 minutes per device of other companies in the industry.
To give you an idea of the magnitude of this agreement, Dr. Kwan is quoted “This is one of the largest deployments of its kind anywhere in the world and we are very proud to be working with technology innovators to deliver a product so important in enhancing the health and safety of their workforce.”
I will forgive you if you stop reading now. The above agreement, combined with the cruise line partnership, is honestly enough for me and for many investors, but for those who stick around, the story actually gets considerably better.
The total wearable market is projected to reach $60 billion, and a large part of this will focus on corporate safety. In this way, Tracesafe has a bit of an advantage, as the company has a presence in Southeast Asia. You will remember that long before we realized the impact of the pandemic, several Asian countries were already scrambling to deal with the first wave. Since that time, we have dealt with each wave several months behind Southeast Asian countries. This time lapse has given TraceSafe a window into near-future conditions in the Western world. The best example of this is in Singapore, where they are closer to emerging from lockdown than we are in North America. Singapore has become the proving ground for TraceSafe technology., and it has gone perfectly. TraceSafe is being worn on construction sites for Boustead, a massive Singaporean construction company. This partnership has not only led to improvements in safety and security at Boustead, but it has also won TraceSafe the Singaporean National Innovation Award.
Closer to home, TraseSafe partnered with The World Junior Hockey Championships in Vancouver, Canada in December. The tournament was essentially a bubble-event that was completed safely using TraceSafe technology. T.T.G, the sponsorship firm that organized the event (and, incidentally, was instrumental in bringing The Winter Olympics to Vancouver in 2010) was impressed. So was Telus, the tournament sponsor. The future is very bright in venue tracing, with fans itching to return but needing a safe and proven way to do it.
There remains one incredibly large catalyst for growth, and some may find it the most interesting of all, but before we get to that (cough, Airbeam, cough), let’s quickly dispel any lingering doubts you may have:
Aren’t those wrist bands uncomfortable and a nuisance?
This is another part of the reason Tritan and others have chosen TraceSafe. Recall that two of the management team are pioneers of the wearable space with over 30 patents between them. The TraceSafe product has a battery that long outlasts any other in the industry and it is also incredibly lightweight and unobtrusive. Added to this is the
extended product line, with tags and credit-card style devices.
Discounting everything else in the pipeline, is anybody seriously going to get back on a cruise ship after all that has happened? Will the return to cruise lines be slow?
The high amount of bookings for the second half of 2021 says “no”, and so do experts in the field, who state that cruise line demand is higher than most other industry segments. Once people are vaccinated, the industry will return in a big way. Tritan understands this; hence the quick action.
But what about privacy? Isn’t this just another way for companies or governments to spy on us?
I honestly wondered about this because it seemed an obvious question, but the answer makes complete sense. If the TraceSafe software were downloaded onto your phone, perhaps there would be more skepticism on my part. We all value privacy and bristle when it is infringed upon. But these devices are only work-site specific, meaning that the wearables (and software embedded in them) are separate from your personal devices and they do not function once you leave the site. They only ensure health and safety through workplace tracking.
Aren’t margins higher on software than hardware? Will this make enough profit?
The answers to these questions vary, but they all begin with “yes”. Margins are indeed higher on software, and TraceSafe in fact is currently selling 50/50 between hardware and software (cloud computing), with a focus on moving to 20/80 in the coming months. The cloud-based real-time monitoring system does not, in fact, need an internet connection (which I’d say is important when you’re out at sea) as it is a bluetooth device. No user information is stored on the device and it has medical-grade privacy/security (remember the company’s origins). The administration functions are user-friendly.
What about the revenues?
Whatever exciting news you may hear about a company, it is always more reassuring to see actual revenues pouring in, even so soon after developing a contact tracing solution. TraceSafe could be forgiven for only being a quarter or two away from meaningful revenues, but luckily for investors, this isn’t the case. Based on video interviews in January, the company expects to continue their 100%-200% year over year growth, which puts them somewhere between a projection of $20-$32 million for 2021. Although it should be noted that I’m extrapolating these numbers by following growth patterns from previous quarters, this DOES NOT INCLUDE ANY NEW PARTNERSHIPS, INCLUDING THE AGREEMENT ANNOUNCED TODAY! (Oops, sorry. I seem to have left caps lock on there!).
And then there is the share float. Fully diluted, after all outstanding shares incentive-based options, the total share count will be under 70 million. This is a very small float, which appeals to most investors, as a company in a growth phase will have fewer obstacles to share price growth.
What about data? Data monetization is big business.
TraceSafe will have the ability to monetize data from their cloud-based software at some point in this process, although that shouldn’t be confused with personal data, which would never be shared, obviously. But corporations looking for trends in safety and efficiency would most definitely benefit from the analysis of general workforce data.
What else am I missing?
This is a bonus for the company that cannot be overstated. Airbeam. Ever heard of it? Before you read the bonus paragraph below, note that TraceSafe has invested into Airbeam and owns an impressive 9.9 million shares. Ok, go ahead and read about Airbeam now (Thanks to Stock Fam discord user “Aberdenov” for the assistance)
The 5G revolution is upon us. This revolution will be in the tens of TRILLIONS of dollars. Airbeam will be a player in 5G critical infrastructure. Their 5G micro cell network utilizing AI/ML with EDGE computing on the 60Ghz band will be a catalyst for smart cities enabling such things as autonomous vehicles.
Airbeam will also be deploying wireless cameras with unlimited storage and smart displays for advertising. The company is led by former executive and head of research and development at Qualcomm, Dr Karim Arabi, and along with Stockwell Day and his political connections, the future looks bright for the company. Airbeam's last private raise was back in 2019 with a valuation of 97 million. Since then they have gained traction with pilot projects in America, Qatar and the Philippines. An IPO is expected sometime in 2021 with a far higher valuation.
TraceSafe has openly talked about increasing shareholder value after the Airbeam IPO, including a potential dividend, which is unheard of for a growth tech company.
So you see how skepticism can lead to the DD that you need to uncover a company like TraceSafe. It has the management team, tech cutting-edge technology, the validation, the contracts, the blue-sky opportunity of an industry that will be a part of our lives, and an incredible piece of foresight to buy in early to a very hotly anticipated IPO.
Just another Stock Fam favourite! Thanks to expert poster Jethro and all the members of the TraceSafe channel for their relentless DD. Come join the discussion!
Follow me on twitter MrDotto5

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

I've been reading this sub for a long time off and on, but I've never posted because I didn't think I'd fit in.
[What follows is long, I know, but I've been carrying these feelings around with me for a long time with no one to fully share them with, and it feels nice to finally get it all out.]
I believe a collapse or a singularity is coming, but have made no plans for surviving either. No stored food, no water, no nothing. I saw a single-panel cartoon once that neatly summed up my thoughts. It was a stick-figure drawing of a field littered with corpses, with a few hardy souls trekking single-file through the devastation. A caption with an arrow pointing to the survivors read "Who you imagine you'll be after the apocalypse." A caption with an arrow pointing to one of the corpses read "Who you'll actually be after the apocalypse."
As for a possible singularity, you can't plan for that anyway, that's the nature of the thing, so it's a moot point.
And it's not just that statistically I don't think I'd survive, it's that I wouldn't even want to. My life is too easy. I'm spoiled. I enjoy abundant food, water, healthcare, and basic financial security. My life is cushy. Take all that away and tell me that the rest of my existence will be an endless, valiant hero's struggle for basic survival, probably as I mourn at least most of the people I ever cared about, and ... nope. I'm not a survivalist type. I'm a "you know what, this sucks, I give up" type. No wi-fi, you say? No hot water? I'm out.
I have no children, and that helps. My sister has no children. We never wanted any, or saw the point of bringing them into a world like this, and we found partners who feel the same way. My parents are getting old. Without them, without my sister and brother-in-law, without my partner, why would my mere survival even matter? And if all or some of them somehow made it, watching them fight to survive each miserable new day doesn't sound all that exciting.
Everything ends, from a mayfly's flicker of existence to the ten-trillion-year slow burn of a red dwarf star. Everything's temporary, viewed from a suitable remove.
But the real root of it all, the reason I feel this way, is that I've become so disgusted with humanity over the years (I'm in my 40s) that I don't believe the species is fit to survive. We don't deserve the Earth because we are not proper stewards of our environment, and we show no real inclination toward changing that. We certainly do not deserve to inherit the other planets or the stars if we can't take care of this one little ball of mud. I used to think we'd get there some day, that we'd learn and grow enough to earn our inheritance, but I've come to believe that will never happen.
Elon Musk wants to go to Mars and start over. That's like refusing to clean or maintain your house until it finally falls in on itself and then moving next door to do it again. Insanity.
Is that the answer to Fermi's paradox? Is that why the universe is so empty? Maybe animals like us with our vaunted higher intelligence levels are all self-destructively insane. Maybe the aliens also never learned how to live in harmony with themselves and their worlds. Like the largest stars, we burn hot and quick and then we're gone, while a planetary ecology full of simple organisms going about simple lives would chug along indefinitely so long as everything had the good sense to avoid getting smart.
We have the same animal drives as other creatures, but unlike those creatures we have these big brains that allow us to manifest our destructive will on a planetary scale. The human species has no impulse control. No real ability to plan and act over the long term. We are led by people who think no further than 2, 4, or 6 years ahead: just do and say whatever it takes to make it to the next election. Lather. Rinse. Repeat.
Humanity has no willingness to make the sacrifices now that would safeguard the future. We don't demand it of ourselves. Our leaders don't demand it of us. If they did we'd have them tarred and feathered by sundown.
We'll deal with the future when it gets here, we decide, and by "we" we mean someone else, because we'll have had our individual fun by then and be snug in our graves when the poop well and truly hits the fan. It's a smart gamble, if a cynical and cruel one. It's been paying off handsomely for generation after generation. Get while the gettin' is good, and let the future fend for itself. Some day the check will come due. We know that, but we don't care.
When I was a kid I'd watch Star Trek and all those other old sci-fi shows, and I'd read books about humans taking to the stars to explore. I visited so many bright, shiny futures, full of magical technology and wonder and vibrant, far-flung societies. But now when I picture humanity spreading to the stars it's as an all-consuming plague of locusts. Humanity is terrible in the aggregate, and a large chunk of us are despicable individually, too. So many of us are such cruel, grotesquely selfish things.
That's why even after thousands of years of "civilization" we're little better at it today than when we started. We don't know how to live. We don't know how to be. We are psychologically suited to living in small villages, yet our DNA compels us to build giant cities. Expand, expand, expand. And yet I just got done saying that without the creature comforts our global technological society affords me I'd lose interest in living at all, so who am I to complain?
And so the world is always on the brink of some new horror: war, pandemic, famine, the rise of crushing authoritarianism threatening a new Dark Age, the wanton destruction of the only biosphere we have.
What would we look like from orbit, to an enlightened being? If aliens did show up to have a look around and see how we're getting on I'd mostly just be mortified. "Take us to your leader!" Yeah, I'd really rather not.
We are saddled with tens, even hundreds of millions of people who have lost all touch with reality, who have no interest in facts. They don't care what is true, let alone what is decent and just. They think they can alter reality by choosing not to "believe" in it. Or perhaps they believe that their god will be back soon to rapture them up to their promised land in the sky and all this talk about protecting and preserving Earth is pure folly.
And so at nearly every juncture where we as a whole could make better choices we fail. We let the diseases spread. We pollute. We tear the planet apart in a mad quest to dig up more and more hydrocarbon filth to burn in the only atmosphere we have because clean energy sources can't be as easily controlled and monopolized. The politicians owned by the energy companies care only about keeping their corporate paymasters fat and happy, and to hell with their own grandchildren.
Stronger nations brutally exploit, invade, and destabilize weaker nations without assuming responsibility for rebuilding what they've destroyed. Then we privileged few act shocked and angry when the millions of refugees we've created show up on our borders, starving and desperate. If we are so materially and morally unready to provide for these refugees of our own making, what will become of the hundreds of millions who will soon find themselves driven from their homes by rising waters, disease, famine, and murderous heat?
Weirdly, none of this seems to depress me much. It weighs on me but it doesn't beat me down. Maybe because I've been coming to terms with it for many years. Or because I realize it's so big, and I am so small. I just sort of shrug. So it goes.
My partner of nearly 20 years and I moved from the US to Sweden a little over a year ago. It's quite lovely here in all the ways that matter to us. As the planet heats up, it'll stay quite lovely here for a good while, or so we hope. Yes, I know how privileged we are. Not that we didn't work for it, or earn it, of course. Still, being able to live in a beautiful place with pleasant weather among people who enjoy a high standard of living and who take caring for the Earth at least somewhat seriously is a blessing. It makes things easier, but it's also bittersweet. I'd sure hate to see it all destroyed.
When it comes right down to it, when I really ask myself "What if ...?", all I can really say for sure is that if all this is going to go away I'm not sure I want to be around to see what comes next. I'm not going to worry over it or plan for it. Whatever happens, happens.
To most of you that probably sounds crazy. And probably infuriating, too, because if the worst happens and I somehow survive it, it'll be your doors I come knocking on and begging at, won't it? And then as you tell me I should have laid better plans and send me away you can remind me I said all this, that I chose my own fate.
For those of you who are focused on planning for and surviving it, I guess my question is ... why? What's the point? What makes you think another attempt at civilization would go any better than this one did, the nature of humanity being what it is?
Why would a humanity in collapse deserve another chance, given that the rest of the Earth's creatures would be better off by far with us gone?

Alright autists, I know that we're still fighting the good fight and this should in no way encourage anyone to sell GME. Hold until the suits shit their pants while crying about it to their mamas. This is for AFTER we've made them pay. Remember, there's a life after GME, and while the 2 million retards that were here before the storm may remember Beastberry, there's also 6 million newbies that don't have a fucking idea about what WSB was before it got all the media attention. There's been rock-solid DD about our lord and savior John Chen and Beastberry, and I shall do my duty to remind/introduce you to the stock that will be here for your ride from whatever galaxy GME is heading to, to our next destination 🚀
I'm going to blatantly copy said DD, cause there's no need to reinvent the wheel and take credit for shit that's been posted here weeks ago. Buckle up retards, this is gonna be a long one, but it's gonna make your brain so much smoother you're gonna be glad you've read something for once in your life. I've already trimmed it a little to account for your ADHD (yes this shit was even longer). Credit to u/_MoveSwiftly:
 
Note: BlackBerry is NOT a cyber security company. They are a security company. Revenue does not care about your AI driven autonomous machine learning EV car with DDs. People are using these terms loosely. A quick lookup for interviews with John Chen would prove that he explicitly avoids these terms as they do not define nor matter to the products/revenue of BlackBerry. QNX revenue does not depend on any of these terms, it's an installation on any device. This includes the space station, of which there is 1 of with obviously non-recurring revenue. Buying based on these basis would be gambling.

• Business transformation: BlackBerry is now a software company, starting the transformation in 2015. The focus is security, the general term.
• 5 Products:
  
• 1. QNX: Embedded system OS.
  
  • Multi-OS housing: It has the capability to allow for multiple OSs on a single chip.
  • Real-time availability/software prioritization: Not all pieces of software operate on the same priority. Steering/braking would be higher priority than media, and QNX allows for that. Even if the thread/core is shared with other applications, when high priority software is requesting a resource it will be prioritized to ensure reliability.
  • Resource sharing: CPU, RAM, and GPU resource sharing between different applications capability. Two applications can share the same CPU core and bump each other based on prioritization.
  • Why not Linux? QNX has the highest certification for security available. Linux does not. CEOs would want to avoid liability and this certification allows for that.
  • Device agnostic: It can be installed on any device, not just cars. Any IoT and offline device can use QNX.
  • QNX Hypervisor: Consolidate multiple OSs on a single SoC using virtualization
  • SoC: System on a chip. Instead of using multiple ECUs, which is what car manufacturers currently do, they can use one single chip to run multiple high priority applications and multiple OSs. This is what Tesla does now. Virtualization: Running an OS in a virtual environment. Think Linux environment inside of Windows. This helps with debugging for developers without having to have the actual hardware.
• 2. IVY: Scalable cloud-connected software platform for vehicles (Joint Venture with Amazon).
  
  • What is it a solution for? When a vehicle manufacturer wants a way to transmit the QNX/OS data safely, normalize it, and visualize it/interact with it. It also allows car manufacturers to own the data, unlike other OSs.
  • Scalable: AWS servers are capable of handling the load from many endpoints.
  • Software platform: There is currently no centralized software ecosystem for vehicles. IVY is providing that.
  • Non-BB developers would be able to use an SDK to develop applications on IVY for infotainment/general apps/others. IVY will also use ML to gain insight on unrecognized patterns by developers. An example of this is detecting if a car slipped, without having the developer connect multiple sensors to figure out if that event happened.
  • 50/50 joint effort on revenue and effort to develop the ecosystem. Using AWS's knowledge in AI/ML for calculated sensors (slip, driver on seat, etc)
  • Usage by other vendors: A city can connect to the data from vehicles and detect when ice/slipping is happening. If brakes are getting overheated coming from a high elevation area. If a car had an accident, etc. An insurance company can provide an app to give discounts similar to the currently implemented OBD-2 readers. A maintenance provider can also connect to this data and check if an error is specific to maintenance, malpractice, or general misuse.
• 3. Spark: Endpoint management. Basically API security. Did not delve far into this, basic info.
  
  • Unified Endpoint Security: This is the endpoint where a laptop/phone/IoT device hits. It provides encryption and security around that. Continuous authentication is a part of it, where a device is learning the user behavior using ML and continuously checking if the behavior matches the original owner; if not, lock the device.
  • Unified Endpoint Management: Basically managing your API for devices.
  • Zero trust: I think this is specifically talking about continuous authentication. Basically, it's not an authenticate once and forget it. It's constantly tracking behavior to verify the user is the authenticated user.
• 4. AtHoc: Non-enterprise communication system.
  
  • Target customers: Government, healthcare, education, etc.
  • Solution: A communication system targeting non-enterprise businesses; specifically for Event management, cross organizational communication/collaboration, mass notifications. Who does this benefit? You've seen the hacks in healthcare/educational/governmental sector. This is specifically for them.
• 5. SecuSUITE: Phone application to allow employees to use work related data in personal devices without cross communication (between personal and work data). End to end encryption.
  
  • Separation of concerns between personal and work data. Employers CANNOT access your personal data.
  • Used by NATO; doesn't carry much value in my book but maybe in yours.

 

• Customer oriented solutions: As you've seen in the products above, some products overlap and are just names to target specific customers. It allows customers to easily understand what product could solve their issue. Continuous authentication is a great example of this: Their customer complained that they kept re-authenticating, so they designed a solution allowing them to authenticate once and using ML they learned their behavior and can continuously check if the user is the owneauthenticated user. This kind of passion in leadership is good for business.
  
• Liability: QNX has the highest security rating available. Most CEOs want to avoid liability when it comes to security, using QNX would help them avoid that in a similar way cloud services help them avoid being blamed for hacking.
  
• Leadership: BBs leadership isn't one to play on famous words to drive the stock up. John Chen explicitly states this in his interviews and says they are a security company. Not cyber, doesn't mention AI or whatever. He explicitly avoids meme words and understands what the point of BBs business is.
  

 
Where I think growth can be made:

• QNX in more cars. They can capitalize on the idea of less ECUs = less cost for OEMs + security.
  
• IVY usage by OEMs along with QNX.
  
• IVY ecosystem. Maybe application billing?
  
• Professional services (support) for the products listed.
  
• AtHoc increased market share in more governmental/healthcare/educational entities.
  
• SecuSUITE for more enterprise customers with the idea being saving employers money from purchasing work phones for employees, and worrying about securing them.
  

 
Resources:
John Chen interview: https://youtu.be/_hQQlCWMrQA?t=313
John Chen interview: https://youtu.be/FNdbGhun2E8
J.P. Morgan IVY presentation: https://cache.webcasts.com/content/jpmo001/1416508/content/58ffe5daaa24e738fdef0d065b9b15077892ea63/pdf/secured/BlackBerry_-_Winter_2020-21_Investors_Deck.pdf
IVY: https://blackberry.qnx.com/en/aws
QNX: https://blackberry.qnx.com/content/dam/bbcomv4/qnx/software-solutions/embedded-software/qnx-neutrino-rtos/pdf/QNX-Neutrino-Product-Brief-v7.pdf
QNX Hypervisor: https://blackberry.qnx.com/content/dam/qnx/products/hypervisohypervisorGEM-ProductBrief.pdf
QNX Tools: https://blackberry.qnx.com/en/embedded-software/qnx-software-development-platform
Spark UEM: https://www.blackberry.com/content/dam/bbcomv4/blackberry-com/en/products/resource-centeresource-library/guides/guide-blackberry-spark-uem-suites.pdf
Spark UES: https://www.blackberry.com/content/dam/bbcomv4/blackberry-com/en/products/resource-centeresource-library/briefs/Solution_Brief_BlackBerry_Spark_UES_Suite_Final.pdf
AtHoc: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/products/blackberry-athoc
AtHoc in healthcare: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/products/blackberry-athoc/healthcare
SecuSUITE: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/products/secusuite
Customer oriented solutions - continuous authentication: Start the video at 5:04: https://www.blackberry.com/us/en/events/security-summit/2020/video-details/work-anywhere
Easier link: https://vimeo.com/497426347
VW OS: https://electrek.co/2020/06/19/vw-to-develop-its-own-operating-system-but-dodges-question-about-id-3-software/
 
Alright, if you've made it this far, I have a little cherry on top for you. u/SmahD55 wrote a fucking thesis on Beastberry: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1YmBTtxxoAxW2l1cDTCKJzqsxpT7sL4j7/view?usp=sharing
TL;DR: QNX is in 175m cars, top 19/25 car producers. It's in fucking SpaceX rockets and the ISS. If it's safe enough for space, it's safe enough for you. Amazon / Blackberry IVY is a JV with Amazon where they combined entity will begin monetizing its users. You better believe Amazon knows how to make money. The legacy cybersecurity business is still valuable proven by customers – 9/10 largest banks, 18/20 of G20 countries. All that, at <10bn evaluation. There's a multitude of reasons this shit was heading to 30$ before RH scammed us.
Also the've recently closed a deal with BAIDU, so they're getting in on the Chinese market. Yes, autist, an NA company got into the fucking Chinese market. If all that shit above hasn't impressed you, you should be impressed about the fact that the fucking CCP wants to take advantage of the systems Beastberry has cooked up over the last years.
HOLD GME, HOLD AMC, FUCK WALL STREET. But afterwards, get in on this fucking rocket or I guarantee at the end of the year you're gonna be crying to your wife's bf about your retarded ass missing this opportunity.
 
Of course this is no financial advice, I'm just an autist trying to educate other autists about our Lord Messiah John Chen and his gift to the world.
BB 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀