Modern society’s very existence is tied to the proper and reliable functioning of its Critical Infrastructure (CI) systems. In the seismic risk assessment of an infrastructure, taking into account all the relevant uncertainties affecting the problem is crucial. While both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties affect the estimate of seismic risk to an infrastructure and should be considered ... aleatory probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the result-ing uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assump-tions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of Aleatory variability and epistemic uncertainty are terms used in seismic hazard analysis that are not commonly used in other fields, but the concepts are well known. Aleatory variability is the natural randomness in a process. For discrete variables, the randomness is parameterized by the probability of each possible value. Modern society's very existence is tied to the proper and reliable functioning of its Critical Infrastructure (CI) systems. In the seismic risk assessment of an infrastructure, ta (2012). Simplified method for seismic risk assessment of buildings with consideration of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. Structure and Infrastructure Engineering: Vol. 8, Uncertainties in life-cycle analysis and design of structures and infrastructures, pp. 939-953. This paper examines a particular aspect of seismic risk analysis for a portfolio of dams - the ef-fects of correlations of ground motion and probabilistic dependence associated with aleatory as well as epistemic uncertainties on estimates of risk for a group of dams. As we will show, corre- Keywords: Seismic risk, fragility, simplified nonlinear method, latin hypercube sampling, aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. * Corresponding author and Presenter Email : [email protected] – Epistemic uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates, – Aleatory uncertainty in the median ground motion, – Aleatory uncertainty and spatial correlation of ground motions for sites located in regional proximity one another. Seismic Risk of Infrastructure Systems with Treatment of and Sensitivity to Epistemic Uncertainty. Infrastructures, 5(11), 103, 2020. Francesco Cavalieri. Paolo Franchin. Francesco Cavalieri. Paolo Franchin. 2009) [1]. In general, and with reference to the above list, aleatory uncertainty is related to the seismic hazard, while epistemic uncertainty affects, in relative terms, more the physical systems (in terms of damage, functional consequences and impact). However, both uncertainties may characterise the seismic hazard as well as the physical systems.
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