Don’t believe us, take a look, it’s not the same as the others you’ll see, compare it, critique it.
Find it here.

You can find it here at the bottom of the page, currently only for select bets but very soon to be applicable to all ML bets on a given day for the NBA
Feel free to ask questions, happy to talk about the way it was built!

Hey all, I know there are money line parlay calculators out there but what is the specific math behind determining the payout for a money line parlay?

Betting arbitrage strategies and tips

Avoid arbs over 10% profit.

Often arbitrage opportunities over 10% profit are either an apparent mistake by the sportsbook or a match far out in the future. In both cases placing bets on the opportunity may tip sportsbooks off that you may be arbing.

Don’t use unsafe links from betting arbitrage websites.

When coming from a betting arbitrage site, make sure not to click any unsafe links to a sportsbook. If a sportsbook notices you coming from an arbitrage website, it is pretty obvious what you’re trying to do. If you use links from an arbitrage website to a sportsbook, make sure they are safe non-referring links.

Avoid betting on weird markets.

It’s best to stick to the most popular sports. In the U.S., this would be football, baseball, basketball, and hockey. Placing bets on obscure events like Korean ping pong is going to seem strange to the sportsbooks.

Open both sportsbook websites side by side to reduce the time placing bets.

As arbing opportunities don’t always last an extended amount of time, it is important to place your bets as quickly and as accurately as possible. Pulling up two tabs to each sportsbook and quickly double-checking the match and the odds will ensure you don’t make any mistakes that will cost you.

Round your arbitrage bets depending on your bet size.

When stakes are calculated for arbitrage bets, technically to obtain the full profit possible, the bets would be made to the nearest penny. Ordinary bettors are not placing bets down to the penny. Depending on the size of your bankroll, you will want to hedge your bets to the nearest $1, $5, $10, $50, etc.

Start with small stakes.

Until you figure out the process that works best for you, it is best to start with small stakes. This way, while you are figuring out the best way for you to place bets or the strategy you are pursuing, you can do so without making mistakes.

Double-check the odds are the same.

Odds can change very fast. In some cases, faster than your arbitrage software can pick it up. Before placing your arbitrage bets, make sure that the odds from your research or arbitrage service match up with those on the sportsbooks’ websites.

Double-check that you are betting on the correct event.

Think about matches that are within the same division. For example, in the NFL, each team in the same division will play each other twice. Make sure the date, game, and odds match up on the sportsbooks and the arbitrage service. This way you can be sure that you are placing the bets on the correct match and not one featuring the same teams in the future.

Place “mug bets” occasionally.

A “mug bet” is basically a dummy bet to break up arbitrage bets. By placing these mug bets, it may appear that you are simply an average bettor that gets lucky sometimes. When placing these mug bets, only use 1-2% of your bankroll. Please don’t get carried away with mug bets, or they may eat away at your bankroll.

Limit deposits and withdrawals on sportsbook websites.

Arbitrage bettors need to move around their funds often to take advantage of arbitrage opportunities as they arise. To minimize the need to withdraw and deposit funds, stick to a lower number of bookmakers.

Place an occasional parlay.

According to a UNLV Center for Gaming Research study from 1992 to 2019, Nevada sportsbooks won $0.30 for every $1 placed on parlays compared to just $0.05 for $1 spent on regular bets.
Many beginner bettors bet with their hearts and not their heads when it comes to placing parlay bets. They hear stories like “Man turns $300 to $85,000 on eight-leg parlay”. If you don’t know what a parlay is, it’s basically multiple bets wrapped into one. If one of the bets loses, then the entire parlay is lost. To win the parlay, all of the individual bets must be won within the parlay. These bets have high payouts for a reason; not many people win. By placing the occasional parlay, you can look more like one of these beginner bettors. Just don’t get carried away!

Keep track of your winnings to compare performance at different sportsbooks.

One of the best ways to stay under the radar with sportsbooks and understand your performance is to keep track of your bets. Create a spreadsheet grouping the bets by sportsbook. If one sportsbook has a much higher win rate or lifetime winnings than the others, it may be time to place some mug bets or parlays to even the score.

Spread your bets around to different sportsbooks.

Following up with the track your performance tip, it is important to spread your bets around. If you have a higher number of arbitrage bets with some sportsbooks than others, try to even this out to keep a low profile.

Check stake limits to ensure you can place your arbitrage bets.

You don’t want to place bets on one sportsbook to find out that you can’t place the other half of the arb on the other sportsbook because the stake limit is too low. Ensure you know your stake limits (max bet) with each sportsbook, so you keep your bets within what’s possible when using an arbing calculator.

Avoid long term arbs.

Long term arbs that are greater than a week are usually not the best choice. The odds for these matches are more so guesses, especially when the match is far in the future. If you keep profiting off of these odds, it seems suspicious. Stick to arbs where the match occurs in less than a week.

Avoid arbitrage betting to the max bet limit.

Seeing that there are nearly risk-free profits when it comes to arbitrage betting, it makes sense to go all-in on every bet, right? Not exactly. When you win big it puts more eyes on you. When you win big over and over again, you will get noticed, and sportsbooks will limit how much you can bet. Go for about 60-75% of the max bet limit at most if you have the funds to do so.

Try and focus on smaller sportsbooks.

The more established and higher-earning the sportsbook, the better their anti-arbitrage systems are likely to be. It’s not a bad idea to try and focus on the smaller sportsbooks when possible. Regarding arbitrage betting in the U.S., there may be a period of time when arbitrage betting goes by relatively unnoticed compared to other international markets. This is due to sports betting being new in the U.S., and these new sportsbooks do not have any complex systems in place to detect betting arbitrage.

Don’t place bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear.

Placing bets on arbitrage opportunities as soon as they appear could come off as a little suspicious. The reason being regular bettors are generally not attentive enough to place bets instantly once the odds change.

Stick to 1-3 sports.

Most regular bettors and those that watch sports in general only follow 1-3 sports. If your betting on many more than three sports at a time, it may look suspicious.

Look like a typical bettor.

Overall your strategy should make you look as normal of a bettor as possible. The more you deviate outside of what you think a typical bettor would do, the higher chance of your account being noticed. Act normally, and you can arbitrage successfully while making a profit.
If you are interested, you can learn more here.
​
What I am really interested in is if you guys know of any other strategies?
Anything in the thread may help others!

Right now I'm calculating average win amount times win percentage minus average loss amount times lose percentage but this doesn't take into account the odds of the bets. So if I hit a big win on a big parlay or something it'll look like it was a good day when in reality it was mostly luck.

I went to put in a same game parlay for the Eagles game last week. Moneyline was +350, TT over was +104. When I added those two legs to a parlay, the odds the parlay gave me was +327. The parlay had worse odds then one of its own legs.
I messaged support with a screenshot of the error, and they gave me a standard "heres how parlay odds are calculated" response, I sent a message back saying "that doesnt answer why your parlays are giving worse odds than a single leg of said parlay". That was a week ago and they havent responded since.
Screenshot of parlay
TL;DR: Check the odds on FanDuel parlays a little more carefully next time to see if it's calculated right. Or just dont bet parlays in general.

Much thanks to NoddingCrow and Redarcs for helping edit and review this.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Dagoth Undevan stared at his console, double checking the coordinates his captain gave him. As navigator, it was his job to plot the route they would take, making sure the computer generated trajectory would cause no problems. As amazing as warp drives proved to be, bad calculations would mean instant death if you passed through a planet. As such, it often took many days of mapping out where celestial bodies would be before engaging the drive.
Most of the route seemed standard except for a section where it cut across into sector 69-420. Dagoth looked around to find his captain, observing him leaning over and talking with the communication officer instead of being in his command chair.
"Sir, can you confirm these coordinates for me? It says here that we cut across sector 69-420." Dagoth pointed over at the sector on his console.
"That's no mistake, we do. It saves us over 8 days of travel." The captain waved him off and returned to what he was doing. Grumbling, Dagoth reluctantly proceeded with the rest of the calculations.
More like there's no cargo inspection checkpoints over there.
Dagoth sighed, it appeared that this run was going to be a smuggling run. Not that the captain would ever admit it but the signs were there. Why else would they try and save time by going through pirate infested space?
Dagoth kept at his work, trying to give as much clearance possible between celestial bodies. He finished a few hours later and submitted it for review. No more than 15 minutes later, his captain authorized it and they began making warp preparations.
The warp drive activation proceeded smoothly, entering hyperspace without any problems. The first few hours were always the riskier ones. Dagoth stayed at his console for eight hours until his replacement, a junior navigator, came to replace him.
It would take nearly 3 days to reach the border of what was defined as pirate territory; and once there, another 4 days and a few hours to traverse back into empire space.
Time passed as it would on a spaceship travelling at twenty times the speed of light, the crew doing their duties and spending some time relaxing. The first leg of the journey was rather uneventful, only crossing paths with other ships twice, the computing maneuvers to avoid collision had gone well and quickly.
The empire was quite large, composed of three races that banded together many thousands years ago. Trade traffic was much higher out in the main hubs, not many wanting to increase the risks for slightly increased profits. Spacefaring remained a dangerous profession even with all the inventions that followed.
The pay tended to attract certain types however, the more carefree and dangerous ones. Dagoth was somewhat of an exception, getting into the trade to be able to retire early. He was still in his prime and saved up most of his wages to buy a nice home on a border world. Two more trips after this one and he'd have enough for a modest retirement with over 40 years to look forward to.
Dagoth began daydreaming about his nice little cottage, near a body of water and with plenty of space. His feathers shook in excitement, a shiver running down his spine. His daydream was cut short however when his face connected with his console in a rather abrupt sudden motion. Staggered from the impact, it took him a few seconds to check what was happening. From the feeling alone, he knew something happened to the drive.
“Give me a status update people! What happened?” Shouted the captain from the floor, having fallen out of his chair.
“Something knocked the warp drive out of sync!” Reported engineering through the ship wide comms.
“Sensors are picking up something.” The communications officer added. “Looks like a single ship. Pinging their transponder now..”
Dagoth didn’t bother waiting and he set the impulse thrusters to full, moving the ship away from the unknown one.
“Received their transponder reply, running it against the database now.” Continued the comms officer. “Looks like ‘Go fuc--’….oh. It’s pirates sir.” She finished, her voice shaking.
“Engineering! I need those drives online 10 minutes ago!” The captain was now seated back in his chair, looking over the displays that had zoomed in on the pirate vessel, seeing it gain on them quite rapidly.
“Everything’s a mess! We have to replace a few parts, we’re going to need like, ten hours!”
Ten hours was too much. In less than half of that, the pirate ship would be upon them. With hardly any weapons onboard, due to being a trading vessel, the odds were not in their favor. Dagoth checked the system, trying to find something to help them or buy time. An idea came to him as he looked over the planet.
“Captain, if we jettison the cargo when we pass near the planet here, the pirates will have to choose between pursuing us or getting the cargo in one piece. It would buy us enough time.”
“Out of the question. We’re as good as dead without that cargo.” The captain seemed quite serious, his expression being rather somber.
The first officer spoke up. “The escape pods then.”
Dagoth shuddered. There were enough for everyone on board but the prospect of a 10 year cryogenic sleep after a random single minute warp jump until someone found them was not appealing, if anyone would find them. Else it meant waking up and starving to death.
The captain looked at his first officer and sneered, pulling out his blaster and melting his head with a single shot. The deck fell awfully quiet, ranging from shocked faces to ones of disgust. No one said anything, most likely due to the captain still holding the weapon in his hand.
“We’re in this till the end. Drovth, go to the armory, get blasters for everyone. We’ll fight them off when they board us.” The captain returned to his seat and contemplated the displays while the junior officer went to fetch weapons.
Dagoth did the best he could with what he had but the pirates caught up nonetheless. An unnerving clatter of metal-on-metal, like pulling into a docking port too fast, made everyone aware, made everyone aware that the pirates were now hull to hull with them. Dagoth didn’t want to die here but he had little choice. The pirates of this sector were notorious for taking no prisoners. He swallowed hard and readied his blaster while crouching behind a panel on the main deck with the other crew members. They could all hear the footsteps of the pirates and what appeared to be machinery of some kind, likely cutting a hole through the hull.
The sounds all ceased suddenly and Dagoth felt a bit lighter. He realized it was not because the pirates stopped what they were doing but that his companions were also floating.
The captain opened a comms channel to engineering. “Damnit, did you turn off the gravity!?”
“No, of course not. We’re using all our resources on the engine right now, we don’t have time to check the gravity generator!”
The gravity quickly changed again, causing everyone to fall down, embracing the floor with all of their bodies. Dagoth banged his head rather nastily and could feel some blood seeping out. Mere moments later however, he was floating again, this time with much more force: he touched the ceiling and was slightly pushed up against it. Dreading what was to come, he reflexively put his hands around his head, dropping his weapon.
“Hold your weapons you fools!” shouted the captain before the floor came to greet them again, knocking the consciousness out of the majority of them, Dagoth included.
Dagoth came back to his senses an unknown amount of time later, rather happy at the fact that he was alive even if he had some of the worst soreness and back pain in his life. His hands were bound and he was placed in a prone position, with the rest of the crew surrounding him.
Guarding the only entrance was a relatively tall and slim creature wearing some armor. It seemed familiar somehow, the small patch of fur on the top of what seemed to be it’s head and the elongated limbs that it stood on and grabbed the weapon with. It reminded him of a creature he saw once, some years ago when he was but starting his career in space.
“Pirate scum,” uttered one of the crew members next to him, loud enough that the pirate could hear it.
“Hah, that’s funny coming from xeno scum like you! Why don’t I skip straight to the end with you then?” The pirate said as he began walking towards the crew member, the others parting before him as he wielded his gun.
Dagoth tried to think how he could prevent the death of the crew at the hands of the pirates when it suddenly hit him. The creature he had saved those years ago was a human, just like this pirate seemed to be. He tried recalling the specifics of the encounter, hoping some nugget of information would prevent their deaths. There was one thing, the ravings of a madman that didn’t seem to make much sense. The human had been alone on an outpost for nearly half a year and was in very rough shape. At the time, what it had told him had gone over Dagoth’s head as unimportant mumblings but he decided he wanted to try it now, since there was nothing to lose.
“I want to … par lhey?” He mumbled out, the pirate merely two meters away.
It froze in its tracks when it heard the xeno speak. “What did you say?”
Dagoth cleared his throat and tried again. “I want to parlay? Parlez? Parley?”
The human blinked rapidly and then cursed, spitting on the ground in front of the xenos. “Alright, I’ll go get the captain. You’re lucky.” He said the last part as he pointed to the one who had insulted him.
The pirate left the room to everyone’s surprise. “What did you do? What was that?” Every crew member was throwing questions his way and Dagoth tried calming them down.
“It’s something I overheard once, from a strange person. This makes us able to speak to the captain to try and negotiate something. I know a little more but I’m not sure it makes sense, won’t hurt to try it though. Does anyone know where our captain is?”
“They took him away when they rounded us all up. They’re probably torturing him or something. Knowing the captain, he likely secured the cargo.” Replied one of the crew members.
The pirate returned to the room where they were held and spoke up. “Hey, come with me. Yeah, you, the one who asked for a parlay. The captain is busy right now but he’ll see you.”
Another pirate awaited outside the doors to the room and escorted Dagoth to the cargo hold. Inside, a half a dozen pirates stood with their weapons drawn as one of them punched on a figure tied to a chair. When the pirate administering the torture moved, Dagoth saw that the captain was tied to the chair, battered and bloody. He and the captain did not often see eye to eye but it still sent a painful feeling to his heart seeing him like this.
“I need the codes, Captain, sooner or later my men will break the encryption.” The pirate who was only moments ago punching the captain spoke up.
“I’m dead either way.” Spat out the captain. “Hah, have you come to try and use my crew as hostages to get me to comply? It won’t work.” He said, looking at Dagoth.
“Strangely enough, no. As if that kind of tactic would work on a slimy slaver like you, who cares about nothing but himself. On the contrary, this crew member of yours has asked for parlay.”
“What’s this parlay?” The captain asked.
“It’s part of an ancient pirate code of honor, something you have none of, that obligates us to hear him out before we proceed. Not many know of it which is why I’m especially intrigued how he came aware of it. What’s your name?” The pirate leader towered over Dagoth, looking at him with eyes that could pierce steel.
“Dagoth.”
“Speak now, Dagoth, or forever hold your peace.”
Dagoth swallowed and repeated the phrase in his mind. It made no sense and he was sure it would get him killed but the first part had worked, what did he have to lose?
Dagoth spoke loud and clear. "I've always seeded generously, I'd like a trial by my peers."
Reflexively, the pirates all replied in perfect harmony. “Praise be the seeder, he who keeps his ratios above 1.0”
The pirate leader stepped towards Dagoth, who tried his best to stay still and upright. “I am most curious as to how you know our creed. Nonetheless, I must hold my end of the bargain. You may ask for anything that is within my power and I will comply if I can.”
Dagoth blinked in disbelief. Anything? It didn’t make sense, the pirates have them at such a disadvantage, why would they grant anything because of a mysterious passcode? Naturally, he’d ask for them to leave them alone and resume their route but he was also curious about a few things.
“Can I ask a few questions first?” Ventured Dagoth, hoping to gain some information before making a decision.
“Mhmm, I suppose I can do as much, yes,” replied the pirate leader.
Dagoth looked over to his captain. “Why are you torturing him?”
“He will not divulge the code to open this cargo container. It contains something we need. In fact, what it contains is the sole reason we attacked you.” The pirate leader seemed to be speaking honestly.
“What is inside then?” followed up Dagoth.
“Slaves. Human slaves. Captured from our world during the war and shipped out all over the galaxy.” The pirate leader clenched his fists as he spoke, looking over at the xeno captain with hate.
“Wait, you must be mistaken. We move some contraband sometimes, I turn a blindeye to it of course, drugs and stolen goods but not slaves.” Dagoth tried looking over at his captain for support.
“You naive fool,” spat out the captain. “Why did you think you were being paid so much?”
Dagoth’s stomach turned, he felt sick to his core. All this time, every instance that the captain smuggled something, it was slaves?
One of the pirates yelled out.” I’ve got it! Sending it and… it’s unlocked!”
The cargo container door hissed open, revealing a handful of humans crouched low on the floor, wearing little but rags and visibly malnourished. They shied away from the light until one of them recognized a human pirate and jumped into its arms, tears flowing from both of their faces.
“Most call us pirates but really, we’re more like rebels. The peace treaty our governments signed prevents them from seeking and aiding the millions of humans taken away as slaves during the war. We have to act outside the boundaries of the law to reunite families and free the oppressed. In order to keep up appearances, we raid traders every so often but this is our main goal.” The pirate leader crossed his arms, looking over at the xeno captain.
“Now you, for crimes against humanity and your refusal to assist, I sentence you to the plank. May whatever deity you have grant you their mercy because I won’t.”
The pirates began putting a space suit on the captain even as he tried resisting and then two of them grabbed each side of him, hauling him off to the pirate ship.
“What will happen to him?” asked Dagoth.
“He will walk the plank. A long stretch of metal plate that leads off into space from our airlock. He will then float in space until he either starves, suffocates or manages to end it himself.”
The pirate leader continued. “Now, have you made your decision? What favor would you like?”
Dagoth sighed, he’d been thinking a lot since coming to terms with the fact that he facilitated slave trading and it gnawed at the back of his mind. “I’d like to join your crew, I must make amends in order to have peace of mind for my part in this slave trading.”
“Hmmm, a response I did not expect but one I respect. Very well, Captain Dagoth, I hereby welcome you into our dysfunctional family.”
“What? I’m not a captain.” retorted Dagoth
“It’d be a waste to scrap this vessel don’t you think? I can see how your crew was oblivious to what was really happening, if they wish to join as well, make the offer. Else, I’m afraid it’s the plank. We take no prisoners, remember?” The pirate leader flashed a devious smile to Dagoth. If only he knew what he’d gotten himself into.

Bet structure and behaviours

The Yankee bet consists of 11 bets and four selections
As you can see in the image below, the bet is structured with:

• 6 Doubles
• 4 Trebles
• 1 accumulator

The six doubles are displayed visually below.

• Selections A, B
• Selections A, C
• Selections A, D
• Selections B, C
• Selections B, D
• Selections C, D

As per the picture below:
Trebles:

• Selections A, B, C
• Selections B, C, D
• Selections A, C, D
• Selections A, B, D

The final bet then consists of an accumulator or Parlay of four selections being selections:

• A, B, C and D.

​
​

History and Strategy

Why is this bet called a “Yankee”?
No one is really sure where the word Yankee originated from; some say a British Army general named James Wolf used it first in 1758 when he was commanding; some New England soldiers in America, others say the word comes from a Cherokee word Ian Kay which means coward! Wherever the word comes from … does not matter now as the Yankee bet has remained in the betting shops for decades … and looks like it is going nowhere!The Yankee is closely related to the lucky 15. The lucky 15 is simply a Yankee with four single bets. See our Lucky 15 Guide HERE.
How many bets are required to gain a return?
This means that a Yankee would therefore require 2 winning selections to enable a return, assuming the bet was a WIN Yankee. If the Yankee was an each way bet, this would of course total 22 Bets. The return from an Each Way Yankee with require two of the selections minimum to be placed. See our each Way Guide HERE. Punters must bear this in mind when placing their Yankee bets and selecting the correct prices which would suit their needs. For example, if you had a win double as you only return, and both these winners consisted of even money favourites the return of your £1 Yankee brackets which totals 11 pound would only be 4 pounds.
Strategy
This is one of the most important factors that punters should bear in mind when structuring their multiple bets. It is very popular for punters to opt for the each way choice of Yankee due to this factor above, however, this of course results in 22 Bets in total - and some punters would rather reduce their stake and be in with more of a chance of obtaining a return, rather than have a larger stake consisting of a win only bet.
At the end of the day, it is all down to personal preferences.
You can CALCULATE your bet above, play around with the odds and see which suits your needs the most!
Be Lucky!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LTWpExeWBw2v5bQXRWM_RS7t9YK9z2zLNCET-5sIiZc/edit?usp=sharing
For those that still care, I am tracking Bill's Million Dollar Picks this season that he gives out every Thursday. I have updated the spreadsheet for week 3 and let me tell you, it is hard following this guy. He is super inconsistent, all over the place and forgets to give out the odds for all of the picks except for the Long Shot Parlay of the Week. I have done my best to align with the +$378K he is at on the year, that included playing around with some of the odds from previous weeks. If the numbers don't add up next week I may abandon the money concept all together, we'll see, but I appreciate everyone's feedback. Some notes:

• Week 1 loses are $220K, $440K because, upon listening back, he mentions the lines are juiced and that is how much he would lose
• He said last week he won $1.241M but by my calculation it was $1.21. But, thought it would be more important to algin with his +378K so that is why I didn't play around with it. I presume he was looking at potential winnings, $1.236M and just rounded it up, no idea
• I am presuming that the straight up picks are -110. For the teaser, he didn't mention the odds so I put it at +109, which is what a book I have access to is currently offering
• This week he said he wants to buy AZ down to -1 and TB down to even but then two other times says AZ-5 and TB -6, so the odds are based on the -1 and even. We'll have to wait until next week, or if The Ringer Twitter does one of those videos, to see what is right I guess
• Yes, they are Million Dollar Picks but he puts down as much as he wants each week...

Feedback is welcomed, thanks for reading.

Before posting a basic question, please check out our FAQ If your answer is not there, post away and we'll help?

Day	Link
Sunday	General Discussion/Questions
Wednesday	Combat Sports Weekly
Monthly	Models and Statistics Monthly
Monthly	Podcasts Monthly
Monthly	Futures Monthly

Have a 6 team parlay of mostly dogs tomorrow, bookie saying it pays $450 on a $5 wager, checked odd shark and it said it should pay $1,400. Any reason why?

Most of us parlay a group of games we think will win or beat the spread and wait to see what happens, thinking that once you make the bet you’re helpless. Would you rather be able to control things along the way and be able to pull out after every game?
Instead of making all bets no matter when they start only parlay the games starting at the same time or so close to each other that you won’t have time to rollover your winnings into a new bet. Here’s why: 1. Odds work out to be the a little better if you were to bet each game and take your original bet plus winnings and bet it all on the next game and so on. 2. You won’t have to hedge again because you hit 7/8 and just need Mondays game to win to make a huge payday. You will already have half the payday in your account/hand and can bet it all on Mondays game or risk which ever amount you want, You can decide to risk it all or take your winnings and only risk 1/2?? When I want to parlay games starting diff times I do a parlay with all the games at the first start time then after that ends before the next start time I make a new bet or parlay with the winnings etc. check out the example below it’s pretty easy to follow
This is all true but I started with $100 for simplicity.
I bet $100 Sat at +160 it hit so I won $160 and had $260
I bet $260 Sun at +105 and it hit so I won $273 and had $533
I have $533 bet Mon at -105. If it hits I’ll win $507 plus the $533 I wagered
So I parlayed $100 into $1,040 without having to worry about a star player getting hurt or arrested or anything crazy happening. If I was nervous I could take out $300 and just bet $233 on the Monday game. Or risk as little or as much as I want. I still am in control.
The only advantage to locking in a parlay early is if you think the odds or line is going to move and you want to lock it in where it’s at currently. For every time you locked in a parlay where the late games line swings wildly against you there is a time where the late game line will swing wildly for you. I’m saying it all evens out.
According to an online parlay calculator if you bet $100 with 3 games odds +160, +105, -105 it pays $940 and add in your original bet we are at $1040 betting each game and rolling it over, so there’s no financial incentive either way. This is such a simple concept that so many people overlook and I hope it’s helpful in your future.
I realize in NFL a majority of games are the early slot and the late games sometimes start earlier than others and for those times you just have to parlay the early sun and late sun games but not Sunday night or Monday night or Thursday night games ever. Or you can live bet if you’re only going to bet on one of the late games.
You should never have a parlay where you are laying in bed sun night hoping the Monday game goes well because it’s all or nothing. You may bet everything on the Monday game solo but you have had access to latest injury reports and if you hit a bunch of early games maybe you just want to risk part because winning some guaranteed is better than sweating out a late game.
For those who wonder the games in question from above were:
11/23 (EPL) Man City vs Chelsea 1&BTTS y +160 ✅
11/24 (NFL) Seattle vs Philly Seattle ML +105 ✅
11/25 (NFL) Baltimore vs LA Rams -3.5 -105 ✅
All were posted as POTD and I told everyone to bet the entire bankroll. I doubt anyone did but I know that many people were grateful and made some positive income.

So I made a couple parleys with the following odds Argentina +370 and USA -120 bet $10 to make $76 And also made Argentina +370 and England +315 but I only make $80 betting $10. So only $4 more but with a massive underdog that is England??? Is my bookie fucking me or am I tripping????
Different parleys*

https://www.pinnacle.com/en/betting-resources/betting-tools/arbitrage-calculator
https://www.vegasinsider.com/parlay-calculato
The parlay calculator comes in handy when you would like to check if an odds boost is a good deal but the site wont let you combine the outcomes. Something like, star play to score and his team to win. Typically I would set up the parlay on a few sites to see if it is actually as good of a boost as advertised but they wont let you combine outcomes on the same event. Using this you can plug in the individual payouts and see what it would pay as a parlay.
Do you guys have any useful tools that you like to use?

Trying to get into sports betting more seriously, I know MMA is hard to predict, and these calculations could be far more detailed, and are most likely not reflective of the actual odds of the fights, but it is more of an in-depth prediction into how the fighters match-up. I already have ideas of what I could add for more data, but this is a first draft, and I limited it to 16 statistics and assigned values to the stats to create a score for each fighter. I want to put it's predictions on here so I have some accountability for it's picks.
​
Martin Day vs Davey Grant : Grant (53% Probability)
Karol Rosa vs Vanessa Melo: Rosa (71% Probability)
Raulian Paiva vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov: Paiva (61% Probability)
Marcin Tybura vs Maxim Grishin: Grishin (58% Probability)
Leonardo Santos vs Roman Bogatov: Santos (63% Probability)
Makwan Amirkhani vs Danny Henry: Amirkhani (51% Probability)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos vs Muslim Salikhov: Salikhov (52% Probability)
Volkan Oezdemir vs Jiri Prochazka: Prochazka (53% Probability)
Amanda Ribas vs Paige Vanzant: Ribas (62% Probability)
Jessica Andrade vs Rose Namajunas: (Namajunas 51% Probability)
Petr Yan vs Jose Aldo: Petr Yan (51% Probability)
Alexander Volkanovski vs Max Holloway: Volkanovski (51% Probability)
Kamaru Usman vs Jorge Masvidal: Usman (54% Probability)
​
A few things to mention about these probabilities;

• They use a limited set of 16 statistics I considered to be important to compare.
• Some fights should be a higher probability, but came out lower because of a lack of detailed stats available, for example, Amanda Ribas vs Vanzant, Ribas is a huge favorite but only has 62%, I couldn't find a lot of her detailed stats, lowering the margin.
• However, it's semi-important to note that when 1 fighter didn't have a stat available, I didn't track the other fighters either to balance it out.
• My goal for draft 2 is having more statistics to input to increase the data set and hopefully see a more confident spread in the probability.
• Finally, please DO NOT use these predictions to model any bets on, I don't want my first trial to be responsible for people losing money. I am somewhat satisfied with how this turned out for a first attempt, but I won't be putting money on most of these picks.

Post-Fight Update - 12/13 - A 92.3% success rate. Including I believe 3 betting underdog picks correct with Grant, Salikhov and Prochazka. I used these predictions to piece together a 4 fight parlay, I selected Rosa, Ribas, Volk by decision and Usman, and won with a 4.4x return. Aiming to run this format through previous cards throughout this week to see the accuracy using a larger sample size.

!!!!DISCLAIMER:!!!!
Before you even start watching this for entertainment and see if you get offended by this un-P.C. content. Don't be a pussy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igsb3ejgbL8
If you can't handle it, leave this thread. If you can, then you may proceed to the next level.
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📰📜Story📜📰:
I've been scatter-brained, ire-filled, soul-searching and lost after a 7-day Degen Marathon that brought a shit load of misfortunes. I used to hate social media, but I've learned how to wield the soc. med. sword like a fucking Degen Jedi. I'm going to promote an honest cause where I seek to be victorious in the end. Just you watch you fucking doubters, haters, blockers, scammers. How much grit and intellect would the average fucking person have to endure what I've gone through in the last fucking 48 hours and still come out alive with a sense of greater purpose?
Had about $400 to $500 in righteously earned bonus dollars earned through impossible grinding degen mission that came pretty close to accomplishing (91%).
I would have had some imaginary >$600 BR by now, but instead the roll-over deadline caused the entire deposit to be forfeited and I manage to salvage some $100.
Due to a bonus rollover scheme, 80U of my balance was stuck in bonuses and if I fail to accomplish the roll-over by the deadline, it all gets forfeited.
With a $500-$600 balance, I could have somewhere at $900-1000 by now after a 20-2 W-L record on European football on Wednesday.
How did I get that record yesterday, by sampling a bunch of solid pre-game picks and live betting using my own fucking brain. I consult with the finest in capping. With $10-$20 bet sizes, That would have put me up maybe $15x16 = +$240 at minimum. $1000 was the imaginary bank roll. As of today, betting with $1 units, after Monday-Wednesday's successful run, while Tuesday was a -$50 blip, I converted $100 to about close to $200 (40U).
🤪🤑Psycho Betting🤑🤪:
I learned the art of psycho betting. Taking some well-advised 10U and 30U psycho bets that put my bankroll up a significant amounts, but a big loss does the opposite. Yesterday I manage to hit 4 grand 30U slams in a row, however many on juiced lines, so each $30 bet one returns about $15-20. Thus my bankroll grew nearly +100 units and sits close to $200 from the initial $100 I manage to salvage after that bonus robbery.
If you want to fucking learn the art of Psycho-Betting to the extremest and be successful at it, fucking put in $100 in Bovada (remember to use money that you can afford to lose) and get that fucking bonus for the purpose of looting the bookies in a successful vengeance scheme. This guy is a fucking Artillery: https://twitter.com/GoTimeCappers.
Fucking hit more than 4x30U grand slams yesterday and some 10-20U cherries on top. I tailed his free picks and other through consultation [Haha fucking reddit/sportsbook will probably ban me for promoting another tout, :)].Of course with my $1.5U size on a crippled bank roll, I cannot grow it to as much as I wanted to using GoTime's techniques. I would have been at another +$400 if I had $6 units. It's a high risk and high reward system, but if you are confident with your picks you go big on it. If you lose it, then you grind back with smaller 10U and 20U bets to try to get back to part to be able to do another 30U bet. The goal is to be like 2-1, 3-0 on 30U grand slams a day. There is some level of sustainability and back up plans to execute in case the 30U bet did not work out. It is very improbable for you to lose 10 in a row on well researched picks that the experts in the community have common agreement on. A lot of the times, the lines shift to reward you less for the pick since big money is already on the pick.
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!!!!!DISCLAIMER: DO NOT READ BEYOND HERE IF YOU HATE MATH OR HAVE AN IQ OF < 89!!!!!
Use the chart on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IQ_classification
Here is a Nice Calculation to do:
📚📑💻Stats 301 Question in Degenalytics💻📑📚**:**
Lastly I asked anyone in the past few days to do a Stats 301 question with Degenalytics Context: To fucking determine the probability that an avg Joe with a $100+100 Bonus Bank-roll or $500 + 250B bank roll can actually pull off the $3000/$7500 grind in some number of N months betting with supposedly 2 full months of real sports (N-2) getting Obliterated by COVID-19. I want you to give me an analytical calculation or a simulation of your work and give me all the possible scenarios.
Then give the final verdict of if that number converges to 0.000% or 100.00% that the average Joe would succeed his false-hope mission for a successful rollover.
In other words think of it like this: If the average joe bets his entire bank roll 12 or more times (roll-over is not x10 because of bookie juice), what is the probability that he will still end up in the green? Also assign a tilt probability factor that the Average Joe would go on some emotional tilt spree to end up bust again? And make it even harder by eliminating 2-3 full months of real sports (N-2.5) and having to bet on Bovada's limited shitty ass lines and shitty live odds.
If you fucking want to eliminate the -2.5 months, then allow the average joe the freedom to bet on N months of e-sports [hahah] and see where that goes.
I had a bad experience betting on e-sports for 2 months and only end up -15-20U. I'm not saying that I lost because I suck at e-sports betting or I tailed the wrong people. The Bovada lines are super shitty and limited. Most of the time, on live esports, all you see are dashed out lines as if they fucking know what the rigged result is and prevent people from doing hedge bets or try to bet opposite spreads when they are winning to guarantee an insurance 1-1 with minimal damage incurred to their bank-roll. The live betting experience on e-sports on the Bovada platform is so bad that you are guaranteed to lose in the long run. Fucking hell Bodog/Bovada even offered me a $250 deposit on 100% bonus after the Rudy Gobert day in Mid March. They advertised the joys and wonders of getting rich betting off esports.
I was so tempted to deposit, however I kind of over-slept and missed out on the dead-line so they closed the bonus offer. Pretty good relief that I did not fuck-up my real credit card and bank account by falling for that scam again. It was an accidental Grace of God moment to fucking avoid that E-sports deposit marketing scam.
BONUS Questions:
A: Calculate the number of months needed and number of successful bets required for the conservative degen 1u bettor to grind out the roll-over playing
$2.00 tug of war with the bookie.
B: Calculate the odds that a professional capper who knows how to adjust unit sizes (1u-5u), do parlays once a while, will succeed the roll-over in some
N-2.5 months or add some e-sports to have fun to keep the N factor.
C.1: Calculate the conditional probabilities for the bettor succeeding in the mission if on the first few days of betting:
i) He loses bet 1 for about $20.
ii) Wins bet 1 for about $20 to earn $17.5.
iii) Goes on a 3 game losing streak
iv) 5 game losing streak
v) Positivity case: The guy got lucky and nearly doubled his bank roll on a decent run from day. Up +100U or $200. [I'm sure that out of bad discipline the average Joe would still go -200U in the long run with a pretty high probability.]
C.2: Determine the mathematical scheme on how the Bookies can use your first few losses to eventually put you in a 60+:40- (Greater than 60% locked in bonus, less than 40% of your deposited money). Bonus:Locked funds ratio.
The Jinx-King answer: It converges to zero [hahaha], but I really am interested in know what other scenarios math and stats people have come up. And your mathematical approaches and formulae used to generate possible scenarios and probabilities. But I think it is safe to say that for the average Joe,the answer is 0.00% success rate. Bodog/Bovada knows this exactly and refuses to put a hiatus on the roll-over deadline. Instead they keep it going so that people can try to wager on e-sports and lose their entire bank roll. They are only interested it getting 100% of your locked funds so that they can buy expensive cruises, yachts, beach mansions, resort packages, etc in Aruba or some other tropical place. Where you got millions of desperate Americans, Canadians in struggling economies with lost jobs and zero positive cash-flow. About 10% or so or perhaps even more deposit money into off-shore gambling websites hoping they can roll-over their bank-roll some ridiculous number of times and make a few bucks to put food on the table.
In fact, it makes matters worst being jobless, having zero cash flow and having locked funds in scamming bookies. If you are not good at casino or sports-betting games, you would have:
A: Lose your entire deposit for failing to grind it out properly.
B: Not grind it out on time on whatever dead-line the roll-over was.
C: Even if you did successfully grind that shit out using conservative 1u betting and play $2 tug of war with the bookie, you will end up just wasting your time grinding it out for hours and hours on end. It would have been better for you to fucking find a job at some farm helping out with harvesting crops or work in meat plants so that food does not go to waste. I bet you I can make more money than your $2 tug of war in one a day picking off cans and bottles off the streets in some exercise walking/running/biking + collection routine then selling it to the recycling center for $0.05-0.25 a unit. Trust me at my university, I spot maybe about 50-200 empty/partially driven cans and bottles left on desks, lecture halls, the floor, libraries, work areas, etc. Supposed that I harvested that shit, I would be making $5-$20 a day collecting it all and going to the recycling center once every week.
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⚖Conclusions⚖:
The fucking company knows this COVID-19 closure shit and want to use it to their advantage to continue to rob millions of their customers. Last week, I tried to call customer service, chat help, email, etc. and management has spoken to plead my case to delay the roll-over dead-line in a pro-rated time frame so that customers with locked balances can resume betting with their full balance when Game 1 of any Major League Sport actually returns. They give me the same bull-shit over and over saying they decline my request. For what reason?

1. The terms and conditions written in fine print for accepting the bonus conversion challenge. "Rules are Rules."
2. They were aware my deadline of June 22 at 19:23 ET was approaching soon. They knew I was on a mission to salvage my bank roll before they yank out the 60-75U trapped in bonus balances (i.e. Ghost money). By the end of it, I realize I made a foolish mistake. Most of my wins were just from bonus money and I was rewarded $0.00 on righteous wins on expired bonuses.

Therefore Bonus money only earns bonus money which put my entire bank-roll in a 80:20 ratio where the bookies control 80U in ghost money. By the end of the roll-over deadline, they get to yank out 80U of my balance at the deadline and left me with about $100 (20U) bank roll to regrind.

1. They knew I was winning consistently making solid picks.

During my 110 hour marathon over the brutal grind of losing more than 70 hours of work, leisure and recreation; 35 hours of sleep; to a fucking impossible grind of trying to roll over some 60% of $7500 on sports I have little knowledge of capping (i.e. E-sports, Table Tennis, European football) after a few days of studying the game, I was picking up my stride to grind it to 91%. They fucking knew that if I had another day to grind, they would be coughing up +$600-800 of withdrawable balance to my account.
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Bio:😎📚🎓👨‍🎓
I am a Fucking PHD Candidate (2-6 months from graduating and not having to pay another round of BS tuition) who does a shitload of mathematics, statistics, simulations, mathematical physics, wrote scientific papers. I've won T.A. Awards, Government/Provincial/Institutional level scholarships, Conference presentations, with even Undergrad honors back in the day. DM me if you need a fucking CV to prove my fucking credentials.
Why am I able to write a lot of shit? Because my fucking brain operates on some max level Intel Xeon chip on overclock mode and I cannot do much to shut it down other than going to sleep. They only way is to write articles that I think might benefit the community.
I have a crazy interest in sports and Degen'ing. I love to fucking put action on sports games, be proud about making the correct calls on the outcome of games before it happens, and then boast to my circle of competitive friends about who's the fucking Boss. As tabboo as society think us degens are, I think this absolute BS. There is a pure enjoyment in watching sports and having action on it. It is nice to get paid beer money to cover a round for your buddies, or earn that rent money over a successful night of betting on shit you actually enjoy watching. Fuck I rather make $300 for one evening of enjoying sports rather than working a 9-5 dull job to try to afford rent/mortgage. If I can fucking pay off all my monthly expenses in 3 fucking successful nights of 3 hr sessions of sports matches, that would be ideal. I would take the lather over a 9-5 rat-race grind.
Overall I am "PRO" in the debate for local single sports betting bookies to be established in Canada. Get these fucking scamming off-shore books like bodog/Bovada who contribute only contribute "Bagel" to the Canadian Economy, but instead make it worst by scamming the masses of hard working or desperate people to leak out some sum of billions of dollars of national GDP. Probably the same applies to all American States, that people should not have to cough up their hard earned $$$$ to off-shore scamming bookies. I shall write an article about this later to justify my arguments later.
Ultimately I my goal is to obliterate or negate the influence of all the cons, scamming bookies, and false touts out there who are just interested in stealing people's $$$. To write out full studies on exposing their schemes in an objective lens.
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Calling me out: (Think I cannot track these pussy downvotes? I know you cowards 😂😜😎)
If you think I'm full of BS, then send me a personal DM to have a 1v1 argument the same way that Stephen A debates sports with Max Kellerman. You can downvote me or flame me with empty hate talk all you want on public threads. But don't be a fucky pussy by avoiding a debate with me. Trust me, I'm going to win and be the last one to state a real point that you will have no comeback for [haha]. Lastly, if you are open to discuss or debate with me about some issues, do some resarch/exploration, betting strategies, etc., I would love your collaboration in some projects I got going on.
Ultimately, I should help every honest worker strive towards Degen success or if not, just to purely enjoy putting action on sports games. If you are too full of yourself, then you are on your own, I bid thee adieu, and wish you all the best. However you will be absolutely declined to all services and counsel I work to provide to friends for free.
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Social Media📺🎬
Some extra Resource to how I got to this point in my mission.
Here it is for starters:
June 23, 2020: The Impossible Pursuit Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Tuesday)
June 24, 2020: Doubling Bank roll and rewarded Bagel: Reddit/sportsbook/Brag and Bitch (Wednesday)
June 24, 2020: How can you win 5 in a row and lose it all simultaneously? Reddit/sportsbook/What is your most impressive win?
Full Twiiter: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5
All my media: https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/media
Discord: ????? To be solved.
Challenges: Got a few right in progress now and a couple of drafts I am working on.
The Jinxking Crusade (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275516258822131714?s=20
Turns out many people cannot withdraw anything out of Bovada/bodog due to some website glitches. Will try to recover a bankroll to attempt a withdrawal, however I am likely to have the same issues too. They will make some lame excuse to not give me a cheque. Definitely no point of pursuing anything in bovada/bodog if they refuse to give you withdrawables. The goal is to get their website off outta here. As well as get them out of advertisements. They definitely pulled off some "Get the fucking money and run scheme" and you will likely not see your money again. GG
The Jinxking Challenge (In progress): https://twitter.com/jinxking0p5/status/1275661929940467713?s=20
Want to expose a bad tout who over prices the service and has a mediocre record? Tail and fade to call their their BS or mediocre non profiting record out. Also good for finding legitimate winners too. This will be a mission to expose shitty touts on Twitter the way Penn & Teller exposes BS in the market.

I am looking for an easy way to track my bets and history. Someone recommended action network but I would prefer to go a free version. I do however like they pull in the lines from 5dimes and calculate the odds on parlays. Any suggestions would be great.

So a couple of things to say from the beginning. I am smart enough to use excel and do some math, which is to say I am not that smart, and I am stupid enough to think that I could somehow figure out a way to use parlays to get free money. Secondly, for some this is going to be super trivial stuff, and for other this isn't going to be worth anything. Regardless, I am putting it out there because you really never know when some random piece of math, or a random discovery/idea you had and threw away is the last piece of a puzzle for someone else.
I had never bet on sports using a book and I knew very little about sports betting before this summer. One of my best friends bets quite a bit and I would pick up tid-bits from him all the time. He talked to me about parlays and having no idea what it was I looked into it. After a quick search and him explaining it some more, I figured it would be worth it to see what would happen if you bet every "leg" of a combination of different parlays. ( That is what I have been calling it myself, what I mean by a leg is lets say you are betting on two moneylines for a basketball game, there are four possible parlays, or legs, win win, lose lose, win lose, and lose win, each parlay would be a leg as I am calling it in the overall system). This is probably already sounding stupid, which it is. I settled on combining soccer with any regular sport like basketball, because its not uncommon to find games where all the odds are positive for the two teams winning and a draw. This meant a total of 6 parlays.
What I did in Excel was pretty rudimentary. I calculated the decimal odds for each parlay. Then I chose an arbitrary amount of money I split between the 6 parlays, say 200$. 200$/6 was 33.3$. (33.33*the odds for the parlay)-200$=profit. Minus 200 because thats the total amount you have spent across the 6 bets. that profit number will always be negative because you will always lose money if you do this. Take that profit and divide by the odds of the parlay. That is how much money you need to add to the original 33.3$ to "maximize" your gain (what you will really be doing is minimizing your losses across the board). Once you do this for each leg, the actual amount that you bet will be different, the lower odds will require more and the higher odds will require less. using the new bet amount, multiply again by the odds, and subtract the total the new betting amounts, for your "profit". All of the profits should be the same number, and they will all be negative.
This number is something you can find just from looking at the odds, I called it the "Parlay Goodness" number. The Parlay Goodness number tells you the percentage of your principle you will lose if you bet all the legs of a parlay. The equation I made assumes that you are using soccer + a regular sport with no draws, and assumes all the soccer odds are positive. As I am looking at my spreadsheet it would take a little to long to describe, so I will link it somehow if you are interested.
The next obvious step on this path was to determine if I could remove a leg, or two legs, and have the operation still be profitable. Remove meaning not bet, this would lower the amount of overhead, but now leaves the hole open for you to lose because you did not bet a certain outcome. I tested 4 different situations. Two where I removed only one leg (5/6), and two where I removed two legs( 4/6).
In the first 5/6 I removed the favorite. I should say that for this part of the story, I converted each of the parlay decimal odds into percentage odds, or the odds it would hit/win. When I removed the "favorite" I removed the leg of the parlay with the highest percentage odds. I did a different scenario using the least likely parlay to happen. The give and take here is that the favorite requires the largest bet size, but is "favored", so while your taking out more overhead, your leaving yourself open to not having bet the most "likey" scenario. When you remove the least likely, you don't really remove much overhead, because it was the one that required the lowest bet size.
The same sort of thing was done for the 4/6, the two favorites were removed and the two least favorite removed.
In order to see if any of these would be profitable over the long term, meaning say if you bet 100 times. I said that (win $/loss$) > (% of the time you lost/ % of the time you won) then you would make money. Where win $ means how much you win if the parlay hits one of the legs you bet, and loss $ is how much you lose if the outcome is one of the leg(s) you didn't bet. The percentage of the time you won was found by adding up those percentages of each leg I talked about earlier, subtracting that from the total percentage of each leg added up, dividing by the total percentage. Then doing 1-that number so it was how often you won not how often you lost, then multiplying by 100 for a %. That is the % of the time you should win, and 100-that is the % of the time you should lose. Throwing all that information into the aforementioned equation should tell you if you have found something interesting or not.
If your actually interested I uploaded my spreadsheets into google. Its a mess, but you may find something you want. For most people this was a stupid post to read, sorry bro. For people who are actually good at excel, sorry bro. For everyone who is a real sports bettor, sorry bro.
​
TLDR; I did some math because I am stupid.
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1DMzSSiwLurQGHTV8XAgXOaeDbHUk-n-view?usp=sharing
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1KyWPmfE90yszfrRanJNFbUWsQQVb-l54/view?usp=sharing
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1qJW9-Dox_62ytA8FBltO_2GHOHLol3WQ/view?usp=sharing
https://drive.google.com/file/d/1QXO_FWEqUYgrPZ7ulShogJ5DID_pucm1/view?usp=sharing
​
EDIT: I would like to add that if you could ever "insure" your bet so to speak, or bet against your self, as in bet a friend or your book that you would lose money, then you be able to use all this to make money.