Ok so, first things first you assholes, I am not a bot. I have been in the fucking game for about seven years now.
I don’t typically do posts like this and so this is fucking new to me. Anyways, it seems like a shit ton of you are falling out of favor with NOK. I don’t know what the fuck is wrong with you if you expected to gain a shit ton of money in a day, but what the fuck I have never seen such 🧻🤲🏻 in my fucking life for the past two days.
Are you guys really just going to stand there and let the enemy beat the fuck out of us.
And of course some of you are going to mention the total float as if that fucking matters because the stock is still cheap as fuck (for now lol 🚀) and because we managed to trade one fucking fifth of all the NOK stocks in circulation. They literally had to stop our asses from buying a couple of times. Just like you autistic retards I have lost thousands of dollars in this shit. My paychecks, birthday money, dividends, money from the sale of blue chips and Ark ETFs, etc.
So where’s the upside? Well let me fucking tell you where the upside is and when you can expect to pull off the biggest fucking heist alongside GME and AMC Wall Street will have ever seen. 🔥🚀💸
NOK is well known to be the bigger beast when it comes to the BANG stocks (BB, AMC, NOK, GME). It has a fuck load of shares to go around and there’s a lot of paperhanded pussies out there, so I understand why it may be daunting to expect a Juggernaut like NOK to moon anytime soon.
But it doesn’t have to be.
NOK releases its earnings on Thursday and its expected to blow the competition out of the fucking water. I wouldn’t even be surprised at all if it were to get a higher price than ERIC in two weeks (hell, possibly by EOW). NOK even plans to merge with top tier companies in the near future due to their prowess in the 5G tech that they’re developing. The 🏳️‍🌈🐻 have had their big meaty claws ever since its ATH of $62 all those years ago. Do you really expect a change if you don’t fucking BUY and fucking HOLD. No, with a team of fucking retarded superstars in this sub, NOK is prepping for a fierce comeback in the upcoming weeks. GME is top dog right now, but let’s be honest. GME hype can’t last forever (even tho it can for a long time as long as we remain retarded). However being on team NOK makes me feel like I’m on a loosing, shitty ass baseball team and no one is hitting over .100
What’s the plan, Stan?
The fucking plan is that you don’t buy market price. You look at the ask price and you fucking buy it. This is how we destroy walls. The $5 barrier battle today was hard fought and we fucking lost to the hedge funds. This next week is going to be fucking spectacular 🪄🚀🤲🏻💎 and I need to know if my fucking NOKle heads are even in it to win it or just downright frauds.
You say NOK was a plan by the bots? Take a look at fucking BlackBerry. That shit took the same swerves NOK did that it’s pretty much identical. If NOK is a sham, then the idea of the BANG stocks is a sham.
I know for a fucking fact you don’t believe that. I know that there’s dreamers in this sub. I dream just like you. I am trying to build a life just like you guys are. We are in something way bigger than ourselves so if you can for ONCE IN YOUR LIFE consider that maybe that the process is a trustable process then maybe we can win this shit.
If NOK hits $50, I will literally buy new fucking silverware (like expensive handmade shit with sterling silver cutlery) and eat my own shit. I don’t give a fuck whether you’d want to see it or not, because honestly boys I’d eat my shit to go to the moon and I am 200% willing to take one for the team.
This year, BANG is for real.
So hedgefunds, keep your ears out for the NOK NOK sounds on the door. We’re pissed and we’re armed to the teeth.
EDIT: General cheese reporting. Post this shit everywhere. I dont give a fuck. I WILL be producing a flank strategy tomorrow. People have to know goddamn it. Monday/Tuesday will close at $7 just give it time
The bell doesn’t fucking ring until WSB says it fucking rings. 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🥵🥵
EDIT 2: some of you pussies are asking where you can buy NOK. The easiest way to buy it is with that fucking app all the whores on Tinder beg for food money on: Cashapp. There are literally no fucking limits and if you want an extra 2 fucking shares then use this shit when you sign the fuck up and get $10 extra buckaroos: BKXDNGQ. I also want to make it clear that everyone should share their cash apps so that we can get that $10 extra to put into NOK. I’m only doing this for the small wagecucks so if you have the money to do so, then don’t bother. This is just the only thing on the top of my head that would help out in any way
List of reasons to buy:

1. Most essential 5G patents in the world
2. Fastest 5G speeds recorded
3. Controls over 27% of the 4/5G market
4. First company contracted to set up internet on the moon (NASA)
5. Will receive MULTI-BILLION dollar settlements from ongoing litigations with Mercedes Benz and Lenovo
6. Technology provider and main collaborator of the National Security Center of Excellence 5G Cybersecurity Project (Federal 5G project)
7. Selected to be the main collaborator of the Hexa 6G European Union Project
8. Has pending Department of Defense contracts yet to awarded
9. Just sealed a contract with TMOBILE for US 5G roll out.
10. Has and will take market share from Huawei, already has secured multi-year deals with important Chinese companies
11. Blackrock increased their position to 333,000,000 shares during 2020, an increase of 21 million shares held from the year before (7% increase)
12. May also be getting back into the phone business as they are manufacturing phones in India
13. Vanguard Capital owns 160,000,000 shares and is continuously buying
14. Google Cloud announced a partnership with $NOK to Accelerate Cloud-Native 5G Readiness for Communications Providers

Abbreviation Index:

BB -- Blackberry
AWS -- Amazon Web Services
IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything
QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system)
EOY -- end of year
PT -- price target
SP -- stock price
EV -- electric vehicle
SoC -- System on a Chip
IoT -- Internet of Things
TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY
TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market

FAQs:

1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down?
A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year.
2) Should I invest now or later?
A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP
3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business?
A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV.
4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners?
A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.

Now for the details.

Read this for DD on BB's achievements, certifications, markets, QNX products, EV growth, Spark software and clients, BB Radar, software pricing, and BB challenges:
Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Full List of Clients and Partners:

Blackberry Clients and Partners
Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional
Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik
Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung
Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment
Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Blackberry Current Revenues:

BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis
This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth

Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:

see "Blackberry (BB) Stock News Analysis | What I need to say..." by Financial Live by LEYA on the forbidden video website
The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal

Pretty Charts

The New BlackBerry Everyone is Talking About $BB

Facebook Settlement with BB

Image
This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS
https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20
Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.

Blackberry New Partnerships

Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX.
A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB

BB's Technical Page on QNX Security

Link
Very technical. But cool stuff.

Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:

Just read this post. It's quite revealing:
Great Day for BB despite stick dipping.
TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.

Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:

Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture:
Image
For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible.
As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure)
see "Is BlackBerry Stock Undervalued?" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website
see "Roadmap to $180 a share (BlackBerry Stock)" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website

Revenue, revenue, revenue...

Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share

Really, no competitors?

Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.

Conclusion:

All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly.
Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice...
This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well

Abbreviation Index:

BB -- Blackberry
AWS -- Amazon Web Services
IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything
QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system)
EOY -- end of year
PT -- price target
SP -- stock price
EV -- electric vehicle
SoC -- System on a Chip
IoT -- Internet of Things
TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY
TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market

FAQs:

1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down?
A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year.
2) Should I invest now or later?
A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP
3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business?
A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV.
4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners?
A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.

Now for the details.

Read this for DD on BB's achievements, certifications, markets, QNX products, EV growth, Spark software and clients, BB Radar, software pricing, and BB challenges:
Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Full List of Clients and Partners:

Blackberry Clients and Partners
Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional
Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik
Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung
Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment
Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Blackberry Current Revenues:

BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis
This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth

Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIrjrNYR3Lw
The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal

Pretty Charts

The New BlackBerry Everyone is Talking About $BB

Facebook Settlement with BB

Image
This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS
https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20
Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.

Blackberry New Partnerships

Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX.
A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB

BB's Technical Page on QNX Security

Link
Very technical. But cool stuff.

Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:

Just read this post. It's quite revealing:
Great Day for BB despite stick dipping.
TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.

Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:

Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture:
Image
For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible.
As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure)
Analysis on IVY
Analysis on PTs

Revenue, revenue, revenue...

Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share

Really, no competitors?

Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.

Conclusion:

All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly.
Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice...
This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well

TLDR (because this is really long)

My constraints:

• 24M, lower middle class, third-worlder, with a physics degree
• ADHD (=> low conscientiousness, high-variance attention to detail)
• have in-person, context-dependent social skills, but not enough to network aggressively
• otherwise good at math, programming and word-y things

My inner desires:

• achieve FIRE in a first-world country and start whichever moonshot company I want
• start Astral Codex Eleven and write enough words so that GPT-N can emulate me
• found a László Polgár cult
• get me and my dog into a liquid nitrogen tank

Hi, ssc. I feel like I fucked up my trajectory in life by deliberately straying off the beaten path. I got Silicon Valley-pilled very early on and it didn’t work out as well as I’d hope it would. So…
Anyway, so first things first:

• There’s this trope that entrepreneurs make for bad employees and I feel like I played it straight here. I founded a company when I was 18 and it flopped after five years, leaving me with nothing to show for it AND also a glaring lack of employment history.
• In the meantime, I spent waaay more time on extracurriculars in college than on schoolwork (physics) and that left me with a 2.4 GPA. Sure, I had trouble completing my homework and got myself diagnosed with ADHD too late, but that number is still a number and thus I’m severely limited to the kinds of places I can apply to.
• Third: I was born in a developing country. The worst thing you can do in your career is to be born in a developing country, so don’t do it.

Let me explain that last point. Before COVID-19 and its rapidly multiplying cousins, I had places to be in. Got accepted into newfangled Silicon Valley fellowships, went to international hackathons, all that jazz. But I couldn’t follow through with all of them for the simple reason that the US denied me a B1 visa. Which is like, great, right? Try again, live another day, not an AI takeover-level doomsday scenario. There were other options but I had no money and there was no way in hell I could keep studying while trying to get $10 000 just to pay for lawyer fees for an O-1 which wasn’t guaranteed to work out anyway…so yeah.
That was all Q1 2020. Instead, I had to become a freeloader in my mum’s metaphorical basement who’s also supporting my currently unemployed older brother.
The thing is, lots of career advice out there is aimed at 20-somethings in the US. Which makes sense, because the Internet is American, but it also means a dearth of advice for people like me which a) do not fail Economics 101 (Become a nurse! Everyone and their mother became nurses 30 years ago when it was still lucrative to do so and now they’re in Canada licking syrup off maple leaves and barely conscious seniors), or b) aren’t borderline illegal.
For example, since I’m not white, even if I speak English fluently it’s going to be an uphill battle for me to move to some East Asian country to teach ESL. I can’t just move to Europe too and pluck diamonds out of some newly discovered diamond mine because, well, the Schengen visa is almost as hard to get for people like me as a US visa. And it’s not like I can sell bathwater…
I know the Ideal Entrepreneur isn’t supposed to be whiny, and the Ideal Rationalist doubly so, but god fucking dammit I want things! I wanna be out there doing stuff.
So, okay. In the spirit of shutting up and multiplying, what’s my n-step plan then?

Step 1: Suck it up and move to Canada

Months of scouring iwantout and immigrationcanada have led me to believe that Canada and Australia are the only places in the world which are actively trying to minimise the number of pulled hairs per immigrant they get. Their immigration systems are points-based, which means you can actually plan your life around them instead of going on wild goose chases and trying to seduce people into committing immigration fraud.
My reasoning goes: anything and everything I do from here on out is partly constrained by money, and partly constrained by the trustworthiness of the institutions around me. For reference, it took ~6 months for me to register my company in our version of the SEC. And that’s with lots of ‘applying grease’ and other unscrupulous-but-necessary activities which I very much would not like to do again.
So the first step in my plan is to give up trying to found yet another company and get a real job.
To do that, I have to tick the following boxes:

• [ ] achieve ⩾B2 level in French
• [ ] get 1/2/3 x 1560 hours on the clock (either through full-time employment or freelancing)
• [ ] earn at least 12 960 CAD in the meantime OR somehow trick a Canadian employer to offer me a LMIA-category job

Doing all these will get me enough points to potentially be invited into the country without having to go back to school. These are pretty easy/hard depending on how much time I’m willing to allow myself to achieve them. If I hurry and make the right choices, I can probably accomplish the first two by 2022.
The third ones’ tricky though, and thus we go back to the whole developing country issue again. Most local job postings offer salaries that fall within 4000-8000 USD/year, which is not nearly enough to survive on while also saving up to immigrate BUT the advantage of choosing them is I can probably get any one of them quickly with the stuff I already have in my résumé. On the other hand, most decent-paying programming jobs are restricted to US/EU timezones (I live along UTC+8) and there’s the problem of, well, I don’t really know how to apply to jobs and their job postings are much more intimidating. At least, with local jobs, I already have an idea of what to expect during interviews from conversations with my peers.
I know it’s HR people who write those things and you don’t have to match all the requirements 100% to get accepted but the competition right now is fierce, right? I see people sending out 100+ résumés without getting so much as a canned response, so what are my odds being in a weird timezone AND not having several GitHub repos with 1000+ stars? If on the other hand I niche down and stalk the monthly Who is Hiring? posts on Hacker News, well, those guys are even more serious about posted requirements and are probably holding LeetCode interviews.
Still, not getting a job from the Western Hemisphere is leaving a lot of money on the table so I’m thinking there’s two ways I can go about this: either a) I spend 2-3 months obsessively padding my GitHub then interviewing with EU companies, or b) I grind LeetCode for much longer and try my hand at US/Canada companies directly.
Hell, if I do it right, maybe I can get transferred and not have to worry about my CRS points. A lot of people have warned me over the years that immigrating to a first-world country will probably mean I have to do some manual labor for a couple of years, and going by LMIA-category job postings the reality might not be far off. And I get that, I really do. I’m not trying to toot my own horn, but it just feels like such a waste, though. I can code my way out of a paper bag, I can teach graduate-level math to children, I can run a proper business and yet to better my living conditions I have to change toddlers’ diapers? I know dignity is one of those snooty things which people like me shouldn’t feel entitled to especially if I’m LARP-ing rationality and trying to Systematically Win, but it still sucks, y’know?

Step 2: ./financial-independence.sh, sign up for cryonics

Another sage comment I keep hearing from Canadian immigrant-would-bes is that, it’s a thankless achievement. You basically uproot your life so your children can frolick in cut grass instead of trash piles infused with rusty nails.
Since this is a pseudonymous post anyway, I can be shamelessly ambitious. I want to raise the next John Stuart Mill, and this is a huge part of why I want staying in my country of origin isn’t an option. But that also means I have all sorts of soft deadlines, e.g., peak fertility, income level by said peak, my own capacity to homeschool my children, etc. that I have to meet to maximise the success of this…err…project, not to mention having my own intellectual body of work to pass on.
Lots of things to do, time is so short, and I can already feel my mortal coil unwinding by the second…
Another constraint my utility function has imposed on me is an otherworldly attachment to my 8-month old puppy. I would very much not like him to die, and so I would like to be in a position to take advantage of biotech advances from companies like Loyal in a couple of years AND then maybe sign us both up for cryonics down the line. I know ssc has a love-hate relationship with cryonics and cryonics-adjacent technologies but I’ve been an LW-er far longer and the anti-cryonics arguments I’ve seen have yet to shift my priors as strongly as the original discussions on that darned green website.
It’s weird, actually. I used to not want to get pets, because I knew it would make things 10x harder for me (e.g., I can’t squeeze myself into six-person 3BR apartments anymore) but he was bequeathed to me and it was downright creepy how quickly my values drifted. Literally, within four days, I became so enamored with my furry friend that I had pre-mourned his probable death.
In any case, by this point I should have produced a voluminous body of work in some discipline. Which is basically the same thing as saying I have no idea what to do with my life.
I am clever. Or rather, I have to believe I’m clever because otherwise I have nothing else. I have no other genetic endowments. I will probably lose a sprint to a guy in a wheelchair, and my parents were dirt poor before they became not-as-poor so I don’t have a pile of gold to sit on. In a way, my insistence on naïvely thinking of life as a munchkinable game protects me from the harsh reality of not really having great odds when it comes to doing any of the things I want to do. So instead of playing statistical tennis, why not work with what I have, right?

Step 3: Do what I would have done in my 20s

There are lots of interesting people doing interesting things, and most of them can be found on Discord, Twitter, and Clubhouse.
wookay that statement sort of outs me as a grifter, huh, but it's becoming clear that this is LinkedIn 2.0 especially for people in the Bay Area memespace. Savvy careerists have recently been touting cosigning-style credentialism everywhere, and discussions in these spaces tend to feel very permissive (?), high Openness to Experience (??) in a way that’s hard to pin down. What’s even better is, even though I’ve given up on migrating to the Bay, I now have access to these pockets of techno-optimism that I otherwise wouldn’t. And that’s great! Entrepreneurs get a lot of flack for many things (some fully deserved, admittedly) so it’s nice to have a place where people try their darned hardest to see the good in your ideas.
If the coming Singularity somehow turns out to be underwhelming , I would very much like to start a space shipping/manufacturing company or hell join these folks who are trying to build self-replicating factories on the Moon. Barring that, I’d like to be the first to take this tech to market. I mean, I can’t be the only one seeing the trillion-dollar genital enlargement bill lying on the ground here, right?
Given all this, it’s really painful for me to even consider getting a job, even if saying that sounds so…socially unacceptable? Insert CW designator here? It means I have to give up working on this promising new idea I recently had (or at least take it up as an evenings-and-weekends affair), just as I was able to finally find a cofounder [*]. I’ve always known I rolled badly so I took great pains to rebuild my environment to maximise my chances. That’s how I was able to start a company without having any capital: I found co-founders who were willing to foot the bill. Similarly, I’ve convinced my entire family to let me disentangle myself from the typical Asian path of being my parents’ retirement plan, even though culturally speaking that was a very selfish thing to do. I don’t know how I could have done things differently, to be honest. There weren’t win-win options in my case, but then again maybe I should have looked harder.
One thing I would have if I was born in the average household in the US are equally palatable options. If I don’t drop out of high school and immediately move to the Bay, I would have gone to apply to the best universities in the world. Of course, there’s no telling if I’m actually going to get into any of them, but the alternative is what I have: a degree from some no-name university as my only real credential. Sure, what I learned in my uni was probably not that far off from what I would have learned in say Dartmouth (according to people I’ve asked) but if employers really cared about what people knew, we wouldn’t be in this pickle we’re in right now, would we?
Barring all that, I still have so many other options to chose from. Work in a trade, own a farm, become an au pair in some cozy European country, join a commune, backpack in Southeast Asia with my powerful visa, pull a Matt Damon and audit classes, write the next Great American Novel, join the formless matrix like Gwern, work remotely in an RV, etc.
Either that or I just have a very, very unrealistic view of how things work over there.

Outro

I've heard all sorts of horrible things about jobs. In fact, my mom works 16 hours a day, six days a week for ~8700 USD/year with unpaid overtime and a boss who keeps telling her she should be "thankful that she didn't lose her job during a pandemic". They even have their employees on a minute-by-minute-accurate pseudo-surveillance app where bathroom breaks are written off one's worked hours and not moving her mouse every three seconds is grounds for a being told off come performance review time. And she's supposed to be the head of her department! So I'm thinking if that's how things are, right now, and by good ol' Copernicus there's nothing special about her, then don't I have enough reason to stay away from office work forever?
I will vomit my spleen out if I get into such a dystopian state.
Of course, something tells me that her case is somewhat out there in terms of being y’know, healthy? And it does show. She’s been having breakdowns every other week and it’s a real worry for us that she’s going to pop a vein or two soon, if things don’t change. But yeah, even if I know intellectually that not all jobs are like hers, I can’t absorb it on a visceral level. I can’t make my inner brain follow my outer brain.
So that’s why I’m here. Our monthly (Slack-free) fixed costs amount to like 720 USD/month which I’m guessing is below the US poverty line so I am sorry if I’m trying to take away your jobs. But all this remote business means that the bar shouldn’t be high for people like me, right? I just have to earn enough money to allow my mum to get a new, not-run-by-Satan-himself job and hopefully allow me to save for Canadian Express Entry.
Lastly, a final complicating factor is I don’t know if I can stomach programming as a job. I love programming for programming’s sake, so I worry that unlike in my first startup where I could dictate what needs to be done, a soulless job would leave my interest a likewise soulless husk. If anything, I’m currently under the throes of the Lisp curse after having avoided the language family for so long.
I feel like I'm having tunnel vision here. Surely there are more career paths than engraving technomancic runes into electrified rock? I did scour the subreddit for other career-advice threads, which seem to crop up every season (sorry!) and there are jobs like business analysis that seem to be up my alley (aside from being the CTO in my last startup, I also did a ton of market research and spun various internal processes directly from it) But then again, I am writing all this down so I’m at the point where I’m desperate enough to compromise on this.
What do you think, ssc? Any glaring errors aside from this entirely incoherent mess? Alternative paths I’m not seeing?
[*]: We could bootstrap a less risky SaaS company and grind towards $1000 MRR but that could take at least two years to come to fruition, if I'm being honest.

Привет идиоты,
I have returned to inflict more psychic damage upon you about the sick fucks that make up the worldwide disease that is Big Capital. Today, I would like to talk to you about Kenneth Cordele Griffin, the founder and CEO of a little company called Citadel LLC.
Now unless you have been living under a fucking rock for the past week or have drank yourself to the point of amnesia for one reason or another (forgivable), you are probably by now at least vaguely aware of what Citadel does and how it relates to current events surrounding GameStop and WSB's new favorite hedge fund, Melvin Capital.
Seeing as how there's a few million more of you here now than there were last month when I was emptying the contents of the bowl of oatmeal that is my brain on these pages about present day financial crimes perpetrated by Citadel and their ilk and the ouroboros of Western intelligence agencies and Big Capital, let's do a quick recap. I do hope you take the time to read the full posts, because you may learn something interesting. ^{PSTH = Stripe 🚀🚀🚀}

1. The markets and the flow of capital around the world are rife with financial crime.
   
2. The vast majority of this crime is perpetrated by large institutions like Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Deutsche Bank. Some of this crime takes the form of laundering money for drug cartels, terrorists, pedophiles, and sex traffickers. Some of it involves manipulation of the markets.
   
3. The regulators in charge of dealing with these fucks are utterly spineless, to the point that any honest person must wonder out loud if they're in on it and getting a take. This phenomenon is known as regulatory capture and is a particularly insidious form of political corruption.
   
4. The CIA, since its inception in 1947, has acted as a sort of parallel government within the broader United States government, and has been the primary ideological engine of its foreign policy through its ties to Big Capital. That foreign policy has always kept the interests of business as its top priority. One might even call this the Deep State.
   

Who is Ken Griffin?

Ken Griffin is the absolute epitome of the archetypal scumfuck egomaniac asshole that embodies everything that is wrong with the ultra-rich class of Big Capital. Ahem, sorry. Let's try that again.
Ken Griffin started his career out as a 🌈🐻 at the age of 19 while an undergraduate at Harvard, shorting the convertible bonds market and making a bunch of money off of the October 19th, 1987 crash, more commonly known as Black Monday. He graduated in 1989, supposedly returned 70% in his first year as a professional fund manager, and went on to found Citadel in 1990. Citadel has swelled to gargantuan size in the last 30 years. It apparently almost went under in 2008 during the financial crisis, but they were fine after the empty suit known as Barack Obama reneged on his campaign promises and fully sealed the transfer of the United States to Wall Street and the rest of the 1%. The hedge fund managed $35 billion as of October 2020 (probably less now LOLOLOL) and a little more than a quarter of all equity volume flows through Citadel Securities in their capacity as a market maker.
He lives in Chicago, but that's not very important. I will note that Chicago has been a historically CIA rat-infested city, as evidenced by the group of University of Chicago-trained economists that helped carry out the regime change ops and aggressive neoliberalization of South America in the 20th century. He's not a complete political partisan, but he does tend to favor Republicans. He has donated to Democratic Party luminaries like Rod Blagojevich and Rahm Emanuel, libertarian psychopaths like the Koch Brothers, and neocon war hawk freaks like Karl "Turd Blossom" Rove. His most recent political contributions were to Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, the two imbecilic former Senators from Georgia who were both busted for dumping stocks on insider information shortly before the Great Beer Virus Crash of 2020. The thread tying these fine folks together is that what most people in the United States think of as politics is more akin to a game show than a real system of governance, and the ultra-rich value their class allegiance much higher than their allegiance to any one political party. As a slight aside, Loeffler's husband is the chairman of the New York Stock Exchange. How in the fuck is the spouse of a (formerly) sitting Senator allowed to hold that position? Yuck.

The Ken Griffin Real Estate Portfolio

(Disclaimer: Griffin may not still own every property in this section and I don't care to find out which, if any, he has divested himself from, because frankly, the levels of opulence make me feel fucking sick. Also, if this is considered d0xxing or something because some of these may be personal residences, I will remove them upon request. This is all publicly available information, though.)

• 132 East Delaware Place in Chicago, Illinois -- luxury high rise with residential units, office space, and retail stores
• 800 North Michigan Avenue in Chicago, Illinois -- penthouse unit
• 820 Fifth Avenue, New York City, New York -- overlooking Central Park in Manhattan
• Big Ass Mansion in Aspen, Colorado
• Two properties at the Hualalai Resort in Kailua-Kona, Hawaii
• Multiple mansions at 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, 60, and 70 Blossom Way in Palm Beach, Florida. Further links here and here.
• 12,500 square feet of penthouses at Faena House in Miami, Florida
• 1290 South Ocean Boulevard in Palm Beach, Florida
• 3 Carlton Gardens in London, England -- former home of Charles de Gaulle, former President of France
• Numerous units at 220 Central Park South in New York City, New York -- a four-floor penthouse and two adjacent apartments on the 20th floor
• 650 Meadow Lane in Southampton, New York -- purchased from Calvin Klein
• Vacant double lot costing $37 million Star Island, Miami Beach, Florida

The Ken Griffin Art Portfolio

Many of the pieces listed here are not held personally by Griffin, but are loaned out to institutions like the Museum of Modern Art in New York and the Art Institute of Chicago. For the extreme smoothbrains among you, the reason Griffin blows giant bags on horrible pieces of art and puts them on public display is so that he can use them as tax writeoffs.
Herein lies the part where you may call me a conspiracy theorist if you please, but I think Griffin's art portfolio is indicative of some type of covert relationship with the intelligence agencies. I sincerely do not believe that any person can reach these strata of society without at least brushing elbows with some glowies. The most expensive pieces in his collection come from the school of art known as abstract expressionism, which was quite literally a CIA-sponsored project meant to counter the influence of Soviet realism during the Cold War. The idea was that the Soviets would see the wacky vomitus that people like Jackson Pollock would spew all over a canvas as an expression of the ideals of freedom and individuality and break free of the bonds of Communism.

• False Start by Jasper Johns. Housed at the MoMA, purchased by Griffin for $80 million.
• Curtain, Jug and Fruit Bowl by Paul Cézanne. Housed at the Whitney Museum of American Art in New York. Purchased by the previous buyer at auction for $60.5 million -- Griffin's purchase price is not known.
• Self Portrait by Paul Cézanne. I think this is the correct one. He did a whole bunch of these over the course of his life. Price unknown.
• Water Lilies by Claude Monet. He did like 250 of these, this is the one that comes up when searching it with the year of the one Griffin is known to own, 1905. Price unknown.
• The Green Dancer by Edgar Degas. On display at the Thyssen-Bornemisza Museum in Madrid, Spain
• Little Dancer Aged Fourteen by Edgar Degas. An extraordinarily ugly wax sculpture on display at the National Gallery of Art in Washington, D.C.
• Interchange by Willem de Kooning. Abstract expressionist trash purchased for $300 million from noted Jeffrey Epstein associate and suspected pedophile David Geffen. Recall that Epstein is highly suspected of being some type of intelligence asset tasked with blackmailing rich scumbags by anyone who has studied his story closely.
• Number 17A by Jackson Pollock. More abstract expression trash, also purchased from David Geffen for $200 million.

How does Citadel spend its money?

Good question! They buy politicians. Remember regulatory capture? Here's Citadel doing just that: current Secretary of the Treasury, former Chair of the Federal Reserve, and sentient potato woman Janet Yellen took more than $800,000 in speaking fees from Citadel. In fact, Yellen "earned" over $7 million in speaking fees from various other financial institutions including Goldman Sachs and Citigroup between her stints at the Fed and at Treasury. What do we think? Is she just such an enrapturing speaker that she's worth every penny? Or is she getting a kickback for helping to deregulate financial markets and a bribe to look the other way when short sellers and market makers collude to shut retail traders out of the market en masse, like they did yesterday with GME?
They also buy stakes in distressed hedge funds, apparently. Remember the $2.75 billion bailout that Citadel and Point72 gave to Melvin Capital on Monday, which they promptly pissed away doubling down on their GME short? Isn't it weird that Robinhood shut down trading on the very stocks that the hedge funds were bleeding out from and then forced people to liquidate their long positions at the very bottom of a coordinated short seller attack? Doesn't it seem a little strange that the hedge fund branch of Citadel is allowed to own part of another hedge fund that's being bled dry, as Citadel Securities buys order flow from Robinhood to illegally front-run retail orders?
There's also this, on the topic of Melvin Capital and pedophiles and sex traffickers: Melvin Capital's 5th largest long holding is a company called L Brands, which is the parent of Victoria's Secret and Bath & Body Works. Victoria's Secret, as seasoned Jeffrey Epstein gumshoes will know, was founded by one Leslie Wexner, who had a very troubling relationship with Epstein. Epstein was Wexner's personal money manager and Wexner was Epstein's only known client. Wexner and Epstein were so close that Wexner gave Epstein a mansion on the Upper East Side in Manhattan in 2011, years after it was already known that he was a pedophile creep. Epstein would tell the girls he was sexually assaulting that he was a modeling scout for Victoria's Secret. Jean-Luc Brunel, another Epstein-associated "modeling scout" and sex criminal who was recently arrested in France, would supply models to Victoria's Secret through his agency MC2 Model Management. Basically, what I'm saying is that Melvin Capital, and now Citadel by extension, are long sex trafficking pedophiles.

How can I poke this asshole in the eye?

It seems like there's two big things you can do to do your part.
The first is to 💎👐 GME. The institutions are clearly scared shitless at how much blowback is coming their way or they wouldn't be taking such drastic measures to try to tip the scales in the favor of the shorts at the expense of everyone else. Turn off share lending in your brokerage if you can and still haven't.
The second is to transfer your assets out of Robinhood yesterday and graduate to a big boy brokerage. Citadel Securities (remember, this is the market maker, not the hedge fund) banked a record $6.7 billion in profit last year. You can bet that this has at least a little to do with the influx of Robinhooders pressing the market order button on their phones and letting Citadel front run their orders while Robinhood gives them a garbage fill.

TLDR: Ken Griffin final boss. Citadel bad. Robinhood bad. GME go up. Stop FOMOing into other dumb shit and stick to the plan.

TLDR: Due to a confluence of factors (none of which are technical analysis), I believe a perfect storm is likely forming for a monster, historic ER occurring sometime in late January. The initial main factor for this was that COVID issues were causing a delay in the iPhone 12 launch, pushing it into to this quarter, but that led me to discover numerous other factors now making up my thesis. I believe not only will earnings grow, but the multiple could even expand. How to play it: calls dated end of Jan or mid Feb.

Analysis:

Happy hangover day, fellow autists. I believe opportunities are rare to know when an ER is going to blow it out of the water by enough to overcome IV crush based on more than just a hunch, and when they occur once or twice per year you should swing big. When I play earnings releases, I’m almost always just a seller of spreads so that I can profit off of theta/IV crush surrounding the ER (theta gang always wins). This time however, I’ve bought outright calls. Here is what I’m seeing with Apple:

The iPhone 12 delay could mean huge YoY comparisons.

What kicked all this off was that two months ago I realized we could be heading for huge numbers this quarter due to an atypical delay in the launch of the newest iPhone. Typically new iPhones are announced in mid-September with preorders beginning immediately and shipments beginning before the end of the month. However this year because of COIVD delays the launch date got pushed into October. The iPhone 12 preorders began mid-October with shipments a week later, and the iPhone 12 mini and Max began preorders November 6. And that means no sales of the new models counted in the quarter ended Sept. 30 (Apple’s fiscal fourth quarter)as they usually do. This year all of those opening day sales have fallen into the upcoming fiscal Q1, setting up a potentially huge quarter in sales and making for easy YoY comparisons right out of the gate. Here’s a Fortune article on the delay of the launch.

The “super cycle” rumors appear to be true.

As a lover of new tech, I always have to remind myself that the average person doesn’t care about incremental new features as much as I do. So when I heard rumors earlier this year that Apple could be facing a “super cycle” of upgrades due to 5G, I was skeptical. How much does the average person really care about spotty 5G service enough to jump on a new iPhone? But based on reports starting to come out, those rumors appear to be correct. I’ve seen a few articles suggesting a super cycle not seen since the iPhone 6.
Here’s a Yahoo Finance article on Wedbush’s analysis.
Here are some notable quotes from that article since I know we don’t read around here.

"Based on our recent Asia checks we believe the supply chain is anticipating low to mid 90 million iPhone unit builds … a roughly 35% increase from our original and Street forecasts," says Ives, who covers AAPL stock for Wedbush.
Compare that to the firm's expectations for iPhone 12 unit sales over time. Three months ago, Wedbush expected 65 million to 70 million unit builds for the December quarter; it raised its outlook to 75 million units in late October; and in mid-December, it set a "stretch goal" in the mid-80 million range.
Wall Street broadly sees AAPL selling 217 million iPhones in the company's fiscal 2021, but Wedbush's bull case is "north of 240 million units (250 million could be in the cards – an eye popping figure)" that would easily surpass the 231 million units the company sold in its fiscal 2015.
"We have not seen a launch uptrend such as this in a number of years for Apple and the only iPhone trajectory similar would be the iPhone 6 in 2014 based on our analysis.".

Here is an AppleInsider article, although it quotes the same research at Wedbush. Notable quote:

That bump in production would represent a 30% year-over-year increase in smartphone models produced, and is also well ahead of current Wall Street expectations, Ives wrote.

It’s anecdotal, but I personally skipped the iPhone 11 upgrade because I was perfectly content with my XS Max, however I did buy the 12 Pro Max.

The iPhone 12 sales mix:

It’s not just that phone sales will be up on the iphone 12 launch, it’s the mix within those sales. Typically when Apple launches phones they sell more of the of the entry level new phones than they do the premium, because the total addressable market is bigger. That doesn’t appear to be the case this time. As early as September people were reporting that Apple was making more higher end iPhone 12 models than entry-level handsets anticipating a shift in demand, and they appear to have been correct. Last year the entry level iPhone 11s outsold the premium iPhone 11s by a three to one margin. This year almost immediately after launch people were reporting that the premium iPhone 12s were selling as much as the entry models. Since then, there have been reports trickling out that the premium iPhone 12s appear to actually be outselling the entry level versions.

Apple sold out of nearly everything they make for Christmas.

See further below for one of the reasons this may have happened, in both my “macro” and “risks” sections.
Apple introduced a slough of new products from iMacs to watches this year, and they sold out of all of them. The list of sold-out products at Christmas included the iPhone 12 Pro and Pro Max; iPad, iPad Pro, iPad Air, and iPad Mini; MacBook Air and Pro; iMac and iMac Pro; HomePod mini, and AirPods Max. Here’s a Barron’s article mentioning the sell outs.
Apple wearables, I would argue, are now what economists call Veblen goods. These are unique products where the demand curve actually increases as the price increases. This can happen in goods such as wine, where the consumer lacks the knowledge in how to evaluate the product so they take pricing as a signal of quality. But another reason you can get that skewed demand curve is if the product conveys status. One example of this is sports cars. You can buy cars with 90% of the performance of the ultra top end cars for 30% of the price, but that’s not the point of owning them, is it? How often are you really out at the track? Lambo isn’t in competition with $50k sports cars. They could raise the price $50k per car and people who can afford them would just want them more. Louis Vuitton bags and $50,000 Birkin purses are more examples. In fact with Birkin they not only constantly raise prices, they forbid people from buying them. You have to spend a lot of money on other lower tier products before you’re “allowed” to even buy a Birkin bag. This just makes new money women want them even more.
Those are dramatic examples of course and Apple isn’t behaving that way, but Apple just introduced very overpriced, new over-the-ear headphones which cost almost twice as much as the leading competitor, and yet...Apple sold out of every single color in the first two weeks and hit a three month waiting list by Christmas on a product that I would assume due to its high pricing has very fat margins. Apple charging twice as much makes them more appealing, not less, because wearables are worn and thus seen by your peers (and the opposite sex).

The Twitter rumor mill is reporting parts moving at a brisk pace

I can’t track down the things I’ve read here and there on Twitter and I’m starting to run out of steam here, so you may have to do some searching on your own, but people who usually track movement of parts through the companies forming Apple’s supply chain and normally have a good track record with their reports have reported that parts are moving through the chain at a very brisk pace. This is addressed some in the reports on the iPhone supply chain in my earlier links.

App sales are crushing it.

Thanks probably in part to quarantine, app sales have been crushing it and grew ~35% this December compared to ~17% the prior year, meaning sales have grown at twice the pace.

Reoccurring revenue bundle numbers will be announced

The biggest thing I’ve learned from 2020 is that nothing matters more to the market than the narrative surrounding the reoccurring revenue bundle...aka subscriptions. A company announces its cutting its dividend, but then tells you that’s because its going to pour all that money into boosting its subscriptions? The stock skyrockets. Look at Disney. ATT may be able to pull this off as well if it can convince people of that narrative with WarneHBO max and cut its dividend to pour it into content, but that’s a big “if” for them.
Apple launched their new reoccurring revenue bundle this year. I personally signed up for the premium tier and now owe Apple $30 per month for the rest of my life. I was already paying them to backup my phone to the cloud, and now their bundle has thrown me into Apple Music, Apple TV+, etc. I am firmly entrenched in the Apple universe whether I like it or not.
It is these reoccurring revenue numbers that offer the possibility of earnings multiple expansion.

RISKS

Are sellouts due to high demand, or due to COVID-related production problems? I don’t know. Based on the reports I’ve read, some of which have been linked earlier in my post, it sounds like everything is running full speed in China and the supply chain is running at near or above a record clip. One possible risk is that this was not the case earlier this year and thus Apple sold out of things because they hadn’t produced enough heading into Christmas. I personally believe that production may have taken a huge hit early in the calendar year, but by mid to late 2020 this was no longer a significant issue. I also believe that even if sales have taken a slight hit due to production, the market wouldn’t really care. Markets are forward looking. They know COVID has impacted things globally, and even if Apple reports sales difficulties they will be paired with significantly increased guidance for Q2. New reports have suggested that Apple has had to increase its iPhone production plans for 2021 by 20-30% because of strong demand An announcement like that is not a recipe for a stock crash.
Macro factors causing a crash. A lot of people around here appear to be scared of an impending crash. This seems to be based on the simple idea that stocks have run up a lot and therefore must crash. A reversion to the mean is imminent. I don’t see it that way and I think the economy is more complex than that. Just because something has gone up a lot does not mean it’s going to crash. People have been warning of a California real estate crash for 70 years.
I’m a little bit older than you guys (by probably about 10-15 years) and I can remember the market frenzy of the dot.com boom. A lot of people were saying the same thing then, and while they were ultimately proven right, they were very early. I remember seeing another year to year and a half of enormous gains after hearing all those warnings. Of course the problem with musical chairs is that we never know when the music will stop, but I would argue if anything stocks are roughly fairly valued, not dangerously overvalued.
As we go into 2021, we face the following conditions: a vaccine roll out that sometime between now and late ‘21 will lead us into a v-shaped recovery. The Krugman argument for this vision, and The Bloomberg argument for this vision. We also just had the Fed reaffirm 0% interest rates and the continuation of QE. Add to all of that very easy YoY earnings comps for the first two quarters of this year and this is not a recipe for a crash, it’s a recipe for a steady market melt up. Where are the rich supposed to put all their money in a 0% interest rate environment? 0% pushes up the value of all asset classes, and this is especially true of real estate and stonks. Generally speaking, predicting macro economic movements is a losing game, but all of those things combined with the easy YoY comps means I don’t feel the need to be concerned of an impending correction for at least the next two quarters.
A much smaller factor but still a factor, I have seen it suggested that Apple will be among the larger beneficiaries of the stimulus checks going out, although those have not started rolling out until just now so that may have an impact on Q2 if any.
Bad subscription numbers
If subscriptions to Apple One flopped, this could significantly overshadow sales and earnings numbers. I personally feel Apple isn’t likely to seriously miscalculate predictions on a subscription bundle because they have their market dialed in, but I don’t know that for sure.
Sales could have cratered in October
Sales often drop a little in the weeks preceding a phone launch. What if phone sales tanked during the delays waiting for an iPhone 12? That could be bad. I’m encouraged by the fact that iPhone 11 models appeared to still be having good sales numbers when the iPhone 12 was launched (see links earlier in this post), but I don’t really know what October sales look like.
COVID could have tanked all phone sales.
This report says all phone activations generally tanked 23% on Christmas Day. Two thoughts I have on that, that number is for all phone activations, not just iPhones. And two, that’s just for Christmas Day itself. There could be a wide array of reasons activations were down on that one day. To counter that, this report says the iPhone was the best selling 5G phone, even in October despite the phone not launching until the second half of that month. Additionally that article mentions pent up demand for 5G apple phones that sales are likely to be strong going forward.

Technical Analysis

I don’t believe in technical analysis. Charts don’t know any of the things I just explained, and are therefore, in my opinion, useless to me. Maybe somebody has figured out a system for charts to predict the future, but I am not that person.

Price Target

I don’t pretend to know things like that.

Fun rumors

I’m not big on speculative rumors and momentum type plays, but if that’s your thing there are certainly rumors in the air. The most famous of which is the rumor that Apple is back to working seriously on an EV Car. Another is reports are just coming out in the last day or two that Apple is seeing new successes in developing foldable tech. Whether these things will impact the stock price isn’t really my cup of tea, but if it’s yours those are two things to consider.

Is my post an attempt at a WSB pump and dump?

I’m under no allusions that my own WSB post is going to alter the trajectory of a $2.25 trillion company in any meaningful way. That sort of thing may work on a post-IPO company that hasn’t had its lockup expiration yet and thus has a tiny float (aka PLTR or numerous other recent “to the moon” meme stocks) with limited float. (That’s not to say those aren’t great companies or great trades. I’m just sayin’).

My positions:

I’m more conservative than most of WSB. While I love this place with all my heart and love you guys for it, I believe risking it all to chase screenshot-worthy gains is moronic and not the path to building real, long-term wealth. Thus my positions are probably more conservative than you’d expect.
I have 20% of my net worth tied up in Apple via LEAPs. 9/16/2022 AAPL $87.50 calls. I consider this to be essentially stock I hold for the long term. Delta is approaching 1 anyway so they practically are stock. Sometime in the depths of March I loaded up on FAANG LEAPs with the intention of actually holding them for years and then converting to shares. Those LEAPs were a little OTM at the time I bought them. I have no interest in day trading my significant LEAP positions so that’s going to sit there for the next two years.
But I also have put an additional 15% of my net worth into short term calls on Apple to play the ER. I have Feb 19 $130 calls which were about 10-15% OTM at the time I bought them. They are currently ITM. I also have 1/29 $135s and 1/29 $141s.
This puts 35% of my net worth into Apple.

How to get rich

I intend to cash out my short term calls after the ER, and I don’t intend to reinvest or roll them out because I suspect Apple will be fully valued by then and there are better plays out there. I intend to keep my LEAPS because I bought those for the very long term and because at the very least I should hold them until March to hit the long term capital gains tax rate.
I intend to take my profits from the calls and push them into shorting NNOX and XPEV, both of which have significant lockup expirations coming in mid to late February which I believe will significantly impact the stock prices in the short term. I have no interest in shorting XPEV right now, because you guys are crazy as fuck and for all I know EV stonks could all run up another 50% in the next month. Right about the time the Apple ER hits should be perfect.

Criticism

If you think I’m wrong, I would strongly encourage you to comment. I don’t give a fuck about looking correct or saving face but I give many fucks about not losing money. If I’m wrong, I want to know it.

The Most Important Factor

This ain’t my first day around here, and I know that DD is absolutely useless without rocketships, therefore: APPLE TO THE 🌙 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 🚀 🚀🚀🚀🚀.
Godspeed, fellow autists.

Disclaimer: This article my article. You are reading it first, as I didn't post it anywhere else.
Summary

• Game developer with $450 million in revenue with $110M net profit valued at Price to Sales (P/S) ~4.2.
• Company seems reasonably valued, operating in growing mobile games market.
• Risk-reward ratio at current price is outstanding due to SPAC-merger rules with the cash NAV set at $10.

Kismet Acquisition One (KSMT) to Combine with Nexters Global in $1.9Bn Deal

Not much information about this company, so I started writing my own research on the company. Here is the investor presentation:
https://nexters.com/images/inv_info/Nexters_Investor_Presentation.pdf
If want to understand the valuation of the company, the risk/reward, and the potential I need to answer the following questions:

1. What is Nexters Global?
2. SPAC is a safe bet?
3. Comparison with its competitors?
4. $1.9B is cheap or expensive?

Let's begin!

1. What is Nexters Global?

Nexters Global is a fast-growing mobile game development company with $450 million gross revenue* (2020), 85 million total game installs, 5.4 Million monthly active users, with 10x growth of revenue in the last 2 years. Already profitable with $110 million net profit in 2020.
The management has more than 10 years of experience in creating games. Located in Cyprus (Europe) with roots in Russia (a very strong IT region). They are well known for being in Game Development since early 2005 in the epicenter of the web, social and mobile game development.
https://preview.redd.it/juhbhhuwhmg61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=529a0e927aa3bc3205430d97204d3d625f36fc8d
Since the launch, the company has proven that it can develop, publish and use marketing to scale its games. With 37% of its revenue coming from the US/Canada, 23% from Europe, 19% from Asia it is already an international company.
\In the investor presentation Nexters Global states 310 million net revenue, as at the* sec.gov reports it is more common (example) to use the gross revenue for gaming companies as their base metrics. That's why here and below I’m using gross revenue. Please see the spreadsheet below with a comparison to other companies.
Further plans are:
​
https://preview.redd.it/t9kdphd0img61.png?width=994&format=png&auto=webp&s=b70e92455e253033e99a91b17b0a1f85012e1e5b

• To increase the revenue of existing games (basically, double the revenue in 3 years).
• Launch new titles in 2021: 3 new games announced
• Working on the sequel of their best selling game "Hero Wars 2".
• Use cash to acquire other game developers with great games to amplify revenues using their expertise and marketing/production capabilities to make global hits.

2. SPAC is a safe bet?

There are so many SPACs, that we should be very selective on what we choose to buy. To do that we need to check if the business is real.
There are different kind of risky SPAC’s on the market:

• Without product
• Without revenue
• Without an addressable market
• Without proof that they can scale

We need to verify that Nexters Global is not on that list. Let’s have a look at the company:
The product? Web, Social, Mobile Games.
To check if their numbers are real simply open the game page in App Store and Google Play store.
Android Apps by NEXTERS GLOBAL LTD on Google Play
‎Nexters Global LTD Apps on the App Store
The top game has more than 50,000,000 installs with more than a million positive reviews and an average rating of 4.6. With other games/stores combined, it correlates with the company's stated 85 million installs.
​
https://preview.redd.it/jwh51gm2img61.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=428ec2dc85a4a6c1d51c67aa8fa1f7876edd3dab
I like that I can see the numbers myself, and also can "touch" the product and how it works. it increases my confidence in owning the stock.
Actually, I have been playing their top-grossing game Hero Wars for several months last year. And I loved it... loved it so much that I’ve spent around ~1000 dollars within 3 months. And I’ve seen players that spent much much more than me (higher ranked, had much more power and ranks). And there were so many players that they had to add new servers each week, or even daily.
The first impression is that I really like the product. I see how it works.
The revenue. It's huge.
In the SPAC world, there are companies that can’t make revenue but predict that their revenue will go up 10-20-50x times in 3-5 years. Usually, such companies are SCAM as they mislead investors with revenue that will never happen.
On another side, Nexters Global has already $450 million in revenue with a $110M profit. And the growth rate is +177% YoY. And even the slowdown in growth means the actual increase in revenue substantially, just by the magic of the compound growth.
I like the numbers very much here.
The addressable market
How big is the addressable market? The World’s 2.7 Billion Gamers Spent $175 Billion on Games in 2020; The Market Will Surpass $200 Billion by 2023. So Nexters Global is well-positioned in expanding market.
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https://preview.redd.it/tf41au04img61.png?width=888&format=png&auto=webp&s=7547a1d3c2c8da43554a655d9b32bb4aaf4f2d97
Revenue geography shows that it is also diversified well. The company has proven that it can generate revenue all around the world, not just in its local market. That is very important in order to calculate the valuation of the company.
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https://preview.redd.it/sxq08qg5img61.png?width=362&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed9b771d632268efb31d96d57c831d61d8caf12f
But how long Nexters can generate revenue?
Unlike the traditional PC gaming, where the peak of sales occurs after the launch of the game and then shrinks a lot, in the online mobile game market - games get updates each month/quarter to engage customers and make them stay in the game longer.
Games with great engagement + marketing resources can stay on top charts for many years.
You just reinvest part of your revenue into marketing to earn even more. It works for games with high revenue per player (ARPPU).
Nexters Presentation: $106 - Average net bookings per paying user(2) (Q4’20)
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https://preview.redd.it/jsqcmby6img61.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=f96f6ef490ee2b16cf6ca01e8508df578bfdd302
Percentage of paying users increases. Average net booking increases.
With the 6% of paying users and $106 net payment - it is quite easy to calculate that you earn $6.36 from any user that downloads the app, so you can spend on advertisement a lot of money and you will earn even more.
When you have 277% revenue growth in 2019, 177% in 2020 it won’t just stop growing. Next year double-digit growth of revenue is highly probable.
From a statistical behavior the growth slowdown to zero is very unlikely. If we take examples of other super-hit games from Supercell (Clash of Clans) and Playrix (Gardenscapes).
Example: Playrix did continue to grow since 2016 explosive revenue withadding +41% YoY growth in 2018 +35% in 2019.
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https://preview.redd.it/so9ijp08img61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6acbdf41374f89c045bb07c4b4e5f7dc235bf9
Another example: Supercell's revenue continued to grow at least 2 years after the revenue explosion before slowing down.
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https://preview.redd.it/tjjuf159img61.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=01116616d83bbeeb34bbe98da012d22c3964f5d5
The growth
Great games could continue to grow. Nexters Global estimates their net revenue to reach $562 million dollars. That equals to ~$802 million gross revenue in 2023. And the company is valued at just 1.9B now. Re-think that.📷
This chart also shows that they project only +10.5% YoY growth in revenue in its current games after this year's gain. Which I think is too conservative considering the examples above. I understand that they’ve chosen the strategy not to mislead investors and should stay conservative, but I think they will easily beat their own estimates and 20-25% growth is much more realistic.
The good thing is that we can track their performance in terms of downloads and revenue in stores. We can stay ahead and know the data earlier than official numbers come out, which brings another level of transparency for investors.

Kismet Acquisition One Corp company

The company is led by CEO and Director Ivan Tavrin, the founder and Principal of investment firm Kismet Capital Group. Tavrin previously served as the CEO of PJSC MegaFon, Russia's second largest telecommunications operator, and before that, he founded UTH Russia, one of the largest independent media broadcasting groups in Russia.
Kismet Acquisition Two plans to target the internet and technology sectors operating in Europe, including Russia, as well as businesses established by founders with Russian origins.
Credit Suisse, BofA Securities and LionTree Advisors served as financial and capital markets advisors to Kismet Acquisition One Corp.
Advisors look good to me. The CEO's background and experience too. Additionally, he was one of the shareholders in the recently launched Russian IPO "OZON" marketplace. Which is now +120% up.
The only thing that sounds scary here is the word “Russia” everywhere. Is there an unwanted geopolitical risk? From the legal point of view, every entity is registered under British Law jurisdictions (Cyprus, BVI). So, basically, there shouldn't be any problems.
Well... they would better be in the US as many investors don’t like foreign companies. But there are great examples of super successful Supercell and Rovio that were NON-US too. And we know that the Russian Tech-sector is high qualified (Google Founder - Sergey Brin, Pavel Durov - Telegram, Vitalik Buterin - Etherium, and even Russian Hackers is a “meme”).
And as I said before their business looks crystal clear, anybody can check their metrics so they can’t fraud the data, unlike, for example, Luckin Coffee did in China. Therefore, this kind of risk is eliminated.

3. Comparison with its competitors?

Let's talk about numbers. I’ve tried to compare the game developer to its direct competitors. I've selected only companies with major mobile game-driven revenue.
Here is the full spreadsheet access: Nexters Global Comparison
I’ve marked the concerning metric with yellow and red, Good metric with green, Superb one with dark-green color.
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https://preview.redd.it/tmsosbtaimg61.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b50cd7a1a54115bb496849c43b3611094fc6309
Please take time to read the numbers and come back after.
Update! With the latest news that Electronic Arts buys GLU Mobile with +39% premium from the market - the sector is officially undervalued.
Thoughts on Nexters Global

• Nexters is big enough in terms of revenue
• The MAU (Monthly Average Users) is not very big. While you can consider that as a “minus” that's actually the sign of a young company, with the opportunity to attract more users “cheaper” (with high efficiency). When you already big and you have hundreds of million players, you have to spend more and more money on user acquisition.
• No diversification. That’s a red flag. Hearing of 3 titles coming next year + Hero Wars 2 to be developed. And the idea of acquisition of small developers with excellent games to amplify their revenue 10-100 times promoting it around the World is the Next goal for Nexters. This will bring diversification.
• Remember that Supercell (also a European company, HQ in Finland) with its only best selling game was sold to Tencent at a $10.5 billion valuation. This "Hero Wars" game is currently following its path (in terms of growth numbers & revenue).
• Games are high gross margin projects. I assume this gross margin from the cost of revenue is: AppStore/Google Play 30% commission + spending on maintaining the Servers. That brings me to the industry average of 65%
• Marketing spending numbers are rational (20-40% zone), in order to stay profitable and to maintain modest growth.
• It's already a large scalable company. No “company growth issues” seen through this data. Sign of good management here.
• Unusually high net income seeing here. Assumption: Research & Development costs /Administrative spending / Sales and Marketing is much lower compared to other US companies. Probably they benefit from HQ being outside of the US. That should affect the company multiplicators (P/E) positive.
• With not very high US Market penetration - the opportunity still there.
• Game reviews/rating is essential in mobile games: The higher-rated games = the cheaper is the cost of user acquisition. The longer players stay in-game. The “4.5” rating tells me that customers of this company are very satisfied.
• Fascinating growth. Very young company. The slowdown in growth is expected but compound growth is still very probable.
• Estimated Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) is 25%. Which would bring the company ~$802 million revenue in 2023.
• Is the company valued right? It's more profitable in comparison to its competitors, its double-triple digit growth company with all signs of the trend to continue.
• The company is honest with its estimates and setting very realistic numbers. Other SPACs prefer to predict 10,20,50x revenue in the future even without proving they can scale. This company is doubling-tripling every year and shows estimates of 25% annual growth each year.

I ended up with numbers: P/S = 4.19, P/E = 17.27. This valuation seems just right with current earnings and the sector, but not with the future growth. As there is a Hot trend in gaming and with outstanding YoY growth could be worth much much more.

4. $1.9B is cheap or expensive?

The current price of $KSMT (“GDEV”) is $10.15 which represents a $1.9B valuation. Before the deal is completed the price cannot be valued less than $10 due to SPAC rules. So there is simply no downside risk at this point..
But can it go up? What is fair valuation? Is there a risk of a selloff from shareholders? How rich the valuation can be in terms of P/E (Price to Sales ratio)?
First, let's find out the risk of insider selling:
Here is the sec report: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1814824/000121390021005589/ea134294ex99-1_kismet.htm
The Transaction is expected to deliver up to $150 million in cash to the Company’s balance sheet before advisor fees and/or redemptions by Kismet Acquisition One Corp. current shareholders, with proceeds expected to be used for general working capital purposes and potential acquisitions. Existing shareholders of Nexters will receive a cash payment of up to $150 million pro-rata to their pre-money shareholdings, and will roll approximately 92% of their holdings into the combined company while agreeing to a 12 month lock-up (subject to certain exceptions). In addition, the founders and the management will receive 20.0 million Earn-Out shares over 3 years (with 50% of the Earn-Out released at $13.50 VWAP and 50% released at $17.00 VWAP), also subject to a 12 month lock-up. The Transaction will be funded by approximately $250 million held in trust by Kismet Acquisition One Corp., subject to any redemptions, as well as the additional $50 million investment by the SPAC Sponsor, Kismet Capital Group, via an affiliate.
The investors will have a 12-month lock-up on selling + they get benefits on reaching the valuation 35% and 70% higher from the current price. This means that there will be no insider selling in the near term, which is very positive signal.
Acquisitions
Nexters Global plans to use proceeds in M&A (buying small game development studios with great projects that just don’t have enough cash, expertise, or right developer team) to benefit from its situation in order to launch great games worldwide.
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https://preview.redd.it/xhypgzqfimg61.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=642c03fecbb851984527c46774beb0ecc44eba0a
It is a common mistake to assume that great games can be run by small studios or individuals, as in 2020 you need at least a couple of million dollars spent on marketing to understand if the project is worth it, or not. Small developers can’t afford it. On the other side, Nexters can benefit from it really well.
If they are successful in that, we could see 10+ new titles in the future. That could diversify its game portfolio, making this company a safe bet for Hedge funds and other market players, driving future growth.
“Hero Wars 2” game announcement.
Hero Wars is the top-grossing game, which generates most of the revenue. With “Hero Wars 2” announcement the company can benefit a lot..
Usually, game sequels can do very well, as they are easier to promote, finding their “fan base” from the beginning. This could create a new source of income, work as a diversification, launch the new cycle of the revenue stream for many years ahead.
Partnership with Playrix founders
Here is another thing that I want to focus on:
Bukhman brothers acquired a 43% stake in Nexters in 2018
They are founders of “Playrix” - a private mobile game developer company, currently valued at $7B(valued in Q1 2020). Now more likely ~11B as their revenue increased 1.5 times during 2020.
Please read these articles in Bloomberg and Forbes first:

1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-29/billionaire-gaming-brothers-emerge-as-tencent-s-biggest-rival
2. https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=https://www.forbes.ru/milliardery/410509-nash-rost-ne-svyazan-napryamuyu-s-lokdaunom-milliarder-igor-buhman-o-tom-chto

Summary from the articles:
Cashing out (selling out to Tencent or Activision Blizzard) is not interesting right now. We are growing every year. Game industry multiplicators of public companies were priced wrong . This year has changed it. And this trend will continue as top games can grow for many many years, reengaging users with updates.
Playrix is not interested in IPO's at this valuation. They want to wait until the market changes and start pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)?
I can assume that Playrix founders are interested in the long-term success of Nexters Global SPAC-merger in order to change how markets price the gaming companies as they want to bring Playrix to an IPO in the future. They want to wait until the market starts pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)?
So, for the Bukhman brothers who own 43% shares, Nexters Global is a long-term play company. They don’t want/need to cash out.
I also think that at some point, Tencent could just buy 20-30% of the company through the open market (buying shares). Why? Because it is common for Tencent to buy a stake in gaming companies that earn a lot of cash and priced at these valuations.
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Summary

In my personal opinion, this is a great company with a bright future.
Valuation seems reasonable and there is a big upside if any of those happens:

• Company starts to actively search for acquisition targets (we will see from press-releases)
• Company launches "Hero Wars 2" title
• The company beats its own low guidance estimates (which I think the most probable)
• Company launches more titles which enter “Top ranks” in AppStore/Google Play store.
• Aggressive Tencent/Other major Gaming Holdings buying.

At this exact moment, the fair valuation of the company will move to $3-4 billion dollar. (+100% upside).
At this right moment of the time as the price is near $10 there is literally no risk in a pre-merger state, as SPAC can’t go below $10 price by its concept.
Disclosure: At the moment of writing this article I do have a position in $KSMT, that is not more than 10% of my entire portfolio. I do not plan to sell at any nearest time in future. Stocks are risk assets and this is not investment advice.

Abbreviation Index:

BB -- Blackberry
AWS -- Amazon Web Services
IVY -- Intelligent Vehicles Yo. I don't actually know if this stands for anything
QNX -- Quick-Unix perhaps? It's a Unix-like embedded microkernel RTOS (real-time operating system)
EOY -- end of year
PT -- price target
SP -- stock price
EV -- electric vehicle
SoC -- System on a Chip
IoT -- Internet of Things
TL;DR: Blackberry ($BB) is almost daily announcing new partnerships and new clients for their software, including new deals with companies that are just now or just this year launching autonomous vehicles that run on QNX software. The big kahuna of all these deals is BB's recent partnership with Amazon to go 50/50 into BB's software IVY, a scalable cloud-connected software platform designed for intelligent vehicle data gathering and data sharing. With Amazon's Jeff Bezos stepping down, and Andy Jassy filling his shoes, who was the CEO of AWS, BB will have some very firm support behind Amazon's new CEO. BB and Amazon are having a webinar Feb. 23rd about their partnership and IVY, which should be a strong catalyst moving forward. IVY beta earnings are projected to begin impacting BB's Q3 or Q4 earnings beginning in November this year, with IVY fully being integrated around the 2023 timeframe. Through a lot of reading and analysis, I believe BB has a four-tiered business model dating back as far as 2013 when BB's CEO John Chen was hired to begin the massive BB turnaround process. Tier 1 was development of QNX and IVY, lasting from 2013 to today and onward, however, Tier 2 overlaps Tier 1. Tier 2 was customer acquisition, primarily distributing their secure software in QNX, SecuSuite, Spark, and AtHoc. They secured 37 automakers during this time, including 9 of the top 10 automakers, over 106 governments from around the world, including all of G7 governments and 18 of G20 governments, as well as 77% of Fortune 100 companies, including partnerships with Amazon, Microsoft, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, NVIDIA, Intel, Qualcomm, Baidu, IBM, LG, Samsung, and others. Well if they have such an incredible market share, why are they so undervalued? The answer is that QNX was not the end-all-be-all product. It was the base that the rest would be built on. Particularly IVY, which is the real money-maker. Tier 3 is IVY beta, and Tier 4 is IVY distribution and subscription revenue streams. So why is IVY the big deal and not QNX? They are both big deals, but QNX was never designed to be the money-maker. They are charging a one-time fee per vehicle use. There is a bigger goal here, to secure their clients as their customers for the bigger product in IVY. They also need QNX is to be a secure system in order for IVY to be trustworthy and reliable. And it certainly is secure. QNX has ISO26262 certification, as well as US government clearance, NSA clearance, and CIA clearance. The US government uses QNX and Blackberry products. Just let that sink in. That should tell you something about its security. Anyways, IVY will be used in autonomous vehicle level 4 and level 5 communication (note that QNX is level 5 certified... it has a business moat just in its security level and clearance), as well as EV and gas vehicle data collecting and AI-powered data synthesis. See below for more details on IVY. Wrapping up this TL;DR, BB is going to do well this year as IVY unfolds, but will do even better in the next 2-5 years. I have a PT of 25 by EOY and a PT of 80 by 2023 EOY, and a PT of 160+ by 2025 EOY
TL;DR: TL;DR: BB go up, but go slow for now because IVY revenue not here yet, but big fast later. Make big monies, BB is the future tech that Amazon, Microsoft, Google, etc will be building upon in the EV and IoT market

FAQs:

1) Why is Blackberry stock price going down?
A: A few possible reasons. One, as of today the whole market is down. BB is connected to overall market swings as most companies are. Two, there may be some market manipulation by bearish financial institutions as there are a lot of calls expiring on 2/19. I would expect that BB SP to be volatile between $11 and $14 between now and then, and to move upwards after 2/19 and especially after 2/23 (Amazon + BB webinar). Three, there are bearish investors who still think BB is a phone company and don't understand the underworkings of BB's business strategy, their software, their patents, or their partners. Their revenue has been affected by coronavirus and has not been particularly phenomenal so far this year.
2) Should I invest now or later?
A: First off, I'm not a financial advisor, these are just my opinions. Invest at your own risk. In my opinion, BB will see a large SP growth by EOY, anywhere from 50% to 150% growth by EOY. While revenue will likely not increase much this year, the partnership with Amazon and news regarding IVY will likely create new floors for their SP much higher than the current SP right now, at around the $12 SP
3) What's stopping competitors from building a similar product and hurting BB's business?
A: There's a lot of reasons why BB has a huge moat right now. One, notice the partners that BB has with QNX. They've got all the big boys working them, aside from Apple and Tesla. Seeing as SpaceX runs on QNX, and seeing that Apple was trying to make a deal with Hyundai that did not go through, I think it is still possible that either Tesla or Apple or both companies could also make a deal with BB to use QNX as their OS system. BB worked to develop their QNX embedded microkernel OS for the last eight years or so. Anyone trying to step into the game now is far too late. Apple has the best chance of all companies, as it has its own OS and Apple knows security very well, but this still requires an entirely new system in order to work in the EV sector. Also, Apple announced recently that they would be developing their own EV, although they did not give much details beyond that statement. The likelihood that they are both working on the hardware and software side of this thing is slim given the large number of difficulties that come with certification as it relates to the cybersecurity software space. Regardless, I would suspect that either Apple or Tesla is the most likely to be competitors in this space, but neither company has successfully completed a certified OS system, particularly for the emerging sector of autonomous EVs. Tesla is currently building a Linux-based system that is having a lot of difficulty in passing certifications such as ISO26262, a struggle that has been ongoing for years now. They may achieve a product that passes these safety regulations and certifications, but the question remains whether this will be in time as the EV and autonomous market picks up speed, and whether competing companies would even be interested in using their product. In fact, any car company is unlikely to develop their own OS software because none of their competitors would be likely to use it. BB is the perfect business to license since it is not competing in the hardware sector for the EV market. This argument can also be used for Apple if they are also building an EV.
4) Why is BB's revenue so low if they have so many customers and partners?
A: QNX has been licensed so far as a one-time purchase, per vehicle or IoT using their software. IVY will be a subscription-based software that also includes a one-time purchase. Thus, BB's revenue streams are somewhat unimpressive currently, but they are playing the long game. If my hypothesis is correct, it is John Chen's goal to lay low as software is developed and customer relationships are built. It's the same with the book market. It's the sequel that makes all the money, not the first book. QNX is just the first book of a series looking to hook in its customers with low costs before hitting 'em with the strong follow up in IVY. Additionally, in order to build a competitive business moat, it was to their advantage to not forewarn any competitors of their involvement and plans. Consider John Chen's work as a CEO in his last business Sybase. Chen worked as the CEO of Sybase for 10 years. For the first 7 years, the SP remained at around $10 a share. Three years later, the SP was at $100 a share. I suspect he is implementing a similar model with Blackberry. Chen joined Blackberry in 2013. BB stock actually dropped for most of the last 7 years, resting at a stock price of around $5. Now BB is at $12 a share. I would not be surprised if BB reaches $50 two years from now.

Now for the details.

Read this for DD on BB's achievements, certifications, markets, QNX products, EV growth, Spark software and clients, BB Radar, software pricing, and BB challenges:
Comprehensive Guide about BB and how it shall take off in coming years

Full List of Clients and Partners:

Blackberry Clients and Partners
Automakers: Honda, Audi, Jeep, Mitsubishi, Ford, Hyundai, Volkswagen, Bentley, Lamboghini, Byton, Mini (cooper), Toyota, Subaru, Fiat Chrysler, Mazda, Nio, BMW, Porsche, Lexus, Kia, Land-Rover, Mercedes-Benz, Buick, Jaguar, Visteon, Skoda, Chevrolet, Nissan, Acura, Continental, General Motors, Baidu, Motional
Other: Denso, Aptiv, Bosch, Panasonic, Harman, Bugatti, LG, Vodafone, Bell, Carahsoft, CACI, Telus, iSec, KPMG, Tableau, Qlik
Major: Amazon, Google, Sony, XPENG, XPEV, Li Auto, NVIDIA, Canoo, Microsoft, Intel, Verizon, Qualcomm, IBM, LG, Samsung
Major Investors: PRIMECAP, Hamblin Watsa, Ontario Teachers’ Pension, Vanguard, Harris Associates, ETF Managers Group, Wells Capital, Arrowstreet Capital, Kahn Brothers Advisors, Norges Bank Investment
Governments: Albania, Andorra, Angola, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Bahrain, Belarus, Belgium, Benin, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Brazil, Brunei, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, Canada, Congo, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Egypt, Estonia, Finland, France, Gabon, Germany, Ghana, Gibraltar, Greece, Guadeloupe, Hong Kong, Hungary, Indonesia, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Kuwait, Latvia, Lesotho, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Macau, Macedonia, Malawi, Malaysia, Mali, Malta, Marthinique, Mauritania, Mauritus, Mayotte, Mexico, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Morocco, Mozambique, Namibia, Netherlands, Netherlands Antilles, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Oman, Philippines, Poland, Portugal, Qatar, Romania, Russia, Réunion, Saint Barthélemy, Saint Martin, San Marino, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Serbia, Singapore, Slovakia, Slovenia, South Africa, Spain, Swaziland, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Tanzania, Thailand, Togo, Turkey, USA, Uganda, Ukraine, United Arab Emirates, United Kingdom, Uruguay, Vatican City, Western Sahara, Zambia, Zimbabwe

Blackberry Current Revenues:

BlackBerry Revenues: How Does BlackBerry Make Money? -- Trefis
This display the biggest bearish argument to BB. Until IVY begins producing new revenue streams, BB is likely to not exponentially increase revenue streams, but only sustain moderate YoY growth

Blackberry Analysis Regarding Infotainment and Google and Ford Deal:

see "Blackberry (BB) Stock News Analysis | What I need to say..." by Financial Live by LEYA on the forbidden video website
The media recently picked out a story that left out a lot of pertinent information, making it seems that BB lost Ford as a client. This is not true. QNX is designed to be a SoC. This means that other operating systems, such as Linux or Android, can be easily added to QNX. It is in fact encouraged. The Ford and Google deal was simply announcing the Ford would be using Android as their infotainment system. I believe that BB was never intended to try and be the predominant entity for all software systems in EVs or IoTs, but the backbone that connects all together, and to protect all components in a secure system. Autonomous EVs and even regular EVs in general would not be possible without a secure system protecting the product, as is true with IoTs. This is also why things like US Fighter Jets run on... you guess it, QNX. Ford is still using QNX. It is simply also now using Android that is running on top of QNX more commentary on this: Analyzing Blackberry Bear Argument - Case No. 1: Ford Deal

Pretty Charts

The New BlackBerry Everyone is Talking About $BB

Facebook Settlement with BB

Image
This is an interesting one to be sure. Facebook was being evil, like the do, and were caught using a number of BB patents. They settled in February, and the day that the settlement was finalized, John Chen (BB CEO) tweeted reminding everyone that BB is used on the ISS
https://twitter.com/JohnChen/status/1358853064153784321?s=20
Well, the connection and speculation here is that Blackberry is going to the moon, and that the settlement is rather significant. Someone else also dug out some information in Facebook's most recent 10-K, specifically a portion for a 'non-cancelable contractual commitment' of an amount of $7500 million dollars. That's 7.5 billion btw. We don't know how big the settlement is, but it is worth noting that BB's entire market cap is 7.5B. I highly doubt that a settlement would reach such lofty numbers, but it could be possible that FB settled for some initial amount of $1B or so, as well as $1B in reoccurring payments over several years. We won't know until March 15th actually, so stay tuned.

Blackberry New Partnerships

Within the last few weeks, Blackberry has announced a stronger partnership with Baidu (China's Google), as well as their involvement with Baidu choosing to use QNX for their autonomous vehicles that will be hitting the road, as early as this year and next. BB has also announced their involvement with Motional, a joint venture between Hyundai and Aptiv, which will use QNX for their autonomous vehicles. Motional will be partnering with Lyft to use autonomous vehicles to begin serving customers and will be deploying their vehicles in 2023. It was also announced that QNX will be working with AOSP (Android Open Source Project), as well as announcing yesterday that QNX Hypervisor 2.2 is now released, which is what allows Android and Linux to run on top of QNX.
A sum-up of all the recent news on $BB

BB's Technical Page on QNX Security

Link
Very technical. But cool stuff.

Rumor: Blackberry Buyout? Here's why that's not happening:

Just read this post. It's quite revealing:
Great Day for BB despite stick dipping.
TL;DR: Amazon could have easily bought BB. Why didn't they? Well, all the big players are interested in this EV and IoT emerging sector. This is the new wave of technology that will dominate the market. First we had the dot.com boom, then the cell-phone and smart-phone market, and now we have the autonomous EV and IoT market. If Amazon were to buy BB, they would have to submit a tender offer. This would be a red flag to all the big players that Amazon were trying to buy up the best security out there. It would be a bidding war that could result in a double-digit multi-billion dollar buyout. It was much more to their advantage to create a secret alliance with BB and establish a 50/50 partnership, whose contract includes exclusivity for their use of IVY. Ouch! That's gotta hurt. This is where the importance of QNX lies. BB will be able to pull the rug out from any company that chooses to use something other than IVY. No IVY, no QNX, no EV. It will be a package deal where IVY is the big money maker. All other companies will have to build from the ground up or be forced to license QNX and make their money off of other sectors, such as the infotainment sector, as Google has already begun to do with the Ford deal. When this deal happened, the other big boys wet their pants realizing they needed to get into this space, and fast. Microsoft partnered with Cruise/GM. Apple tried to partner with Hyundai, who was so flattered, they may have initially said yes or indicated so, before realizing that they were already partnered with BB, so it was a no-go. Not sure if that is fact or fiction, but it is an interesting proposal.

Blackberry IVY + AWS Partnership:

Alright, so what's the deal with IVY? Why is it going to be so profitable? Why is IVY the real money-maker, while QNX has been used as the customer-acquisition software tool? Check out this picture:
Image
For one, IVY is designed for real-time communication between EVs or other IoTs. Autonomous driving level 5 requires vehicles to communicate with one another. This is where IVY comes in. IVY connects the different software components of an EV (which presumably are running on QNX), as well as harvesting data on those systems. The data used can be distributed for a wide-variety of uses, including, but not limited to, automakers and suppliers, app developers, consumer services, smart cities, EV charging providers, insurance companies, and vehicle maintenance providers. All of these different sectors will be willing to pay subscriptions for these data services, as well as the automakers and IoT makers who will also be willing to pay subscriptions for IVY. For instance, IVY can help share information between vehicles that will allow for a car detecting ice roads in one area so that other cars using IVY can take a different route. This results in less crashes, which helps the automakers. Insurance companies can use data from all these different data points as well, allowing them an inside-view of their clients. The list of what is possible here is inexhaustible.
As for price points, the subscription models for multiple outside companies wanting to use the data will be create huge revenue streams for BB. With Amazon as a 50/50 partner, and with their resources and strategic management, BB will be poised to be the foundation in security and data sharing for the entire EV, and somewhat of the IoT market (the IoT market has more competitors for sure)
see "Is BlackBerry Stock Undervalued?" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website
see "Roadmap to $180 a share (BlackBerry Stock)" by Wealthy Mindset on the forbidden video website

Revenue, revenue, revenue...

Blackberry is poised to be an industry leader in EV, government, and IoT security and data sharing with products such as QNX, IVY, Spark, and their other software products. Stock price will likely stay somewhat stunted until IVY revenue begins picking up. It is possible that more announcements and marketing related to IVY will make this growth more rapid. In my opinion, either way BB over the next 5 years will 10x. The question is whether you want to get in now at $12 / share or two years from now at $40 a share or something similar, assuming that either way this stock is going to push for that 100B market cap (it's currently at 7B). There will be bearish analysts that will continue to say that Blackberry is a worthless company until those IVY revenue streams begin to come in. It is also possible that a realistic competitor may emerge within the next three years, such as Tesla or Apple. But if Apple is seeking to create its own EV product, then both companies will have a hard time finding any way to license their software to any other company. It remains possible that Apple and/or Tesla may strikes deals with BB as well in order to be able to produce autonomous vehicles and get a bite of that market share

Really, no competitors?

Well it's called a business moat for a reason. As we have recently seen, QNX is working with AOSP, and so clearly, they are not to be worried about. Tesla is not a true competitor as their OS product is not certified yet, and has demonstrated difficulty in doing so, and additionally, other automakers will not want to benefit their competitors by using their product. A third-party non-auto-maker will be much more desirable. Other companies such as VxWorks, have a lot of to prove both in security and certifications, as well as producing an OS product that is compatible with an emerging autonomous level 5 EV market. QNX's embedded microkernel RTOS is very much unique in this regard. This type of system allows for real-time processing and power distribution, while protecting the system from attacks. In an embedded microkernel system, if one part of the system is attacked, the whole system will not shut down, in layman's terms. This is essential for the security of any high-risk product that is built upon an underlying software that controls that different components of the system.

Conclusion:

All eyes are turned towards Blackberry right now. People want to know what this deal with Amazon will look like, how it will work, what they will focus on, (will Amazon also use this system for a fleet of delivery drones? hmmm), what the revenue streams will look like, what are their projections, what markets and sectors are they targeting, what are their future goals, what will Amazon be doing on their end, etc, etc. The Amazon + BB webinar may answer some of those questions, or maybe they won't. Time will tell (Feb. 23rd, specifically -- here's a link to sign up and watch: Next-Gen Vehicle Architectures Unlock Unprecedented Opportunities for Automakers). Also look out for that FB settlement numbers on March 15th, and Q4 earnings March 31st. I don't expect Q4 earnings to be particularly interesting unless they include the FB settlement numbers. Could those numbers instead be put into Q1 earnings for 2021? Possibly.
Initially IVY beta is expected to begin being released late this year. I will also be looking forward to see how Apple and Tesla respond in the coming months. Ultimately, BB is a long-term play, but is poised to dominate this emerging industry with the partnerships and security focused software they have secretly been building. Now if only the could do something about their logo, some rebranding would be nice...
This is not financial advice, just my own opinions. I am not a financial advisor nor a professional. I own 14k shares in Blackberry, as well as options (10x 8/17/21 20c BB). Do your own DD and fact check me as well