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$15 to $1,500 cash game only challenge completed!

Hey guys wanted to share my little journey with you guys, leave this up as a milestone marker, and ask you guys for your opinions on what i should do next.
August 2020 i got an email from Americas card room trying to get me to come back and play on their site. They credited my account $10 and i had another $5 in unclaimed rakeback from many years ago
I was bored so i decided "I'm not going to deposit shit because last time i went on tilt and busted my account on roulette/ blackjack after a couple bad beats and i know thats what they want, but i will take this $15 and play 2nl seriously and try to run it up with strict bankroll management only moving up with 25+ buy ins and avoid roulette/BJ no matter what"
I started playing 2 tables (then 4 later on) of 2nl August 27th 2020 and played well/ ran really well (70bb/100 for 5,000+ hands was pretty swell)...
2nl Graph https://ibb.co/qFtMzn0
Once i quickly hit $125 for 25 buy ins i moved up to 5nl (and only played 2nl after that when i was bored/ tired at 4am to not screw my roll up too much)
5nl graph https://ibb.co/sgLwLxj
Once i had 30 buy ins i moved up to 10nl fast fold and regular tables where i have been since, surprisingly my fast fold win rate is even slightly higher than my 10nl reg tables (both 10-11bb/100). I'm now playing 12 regular tables at a time 8x 6 max + 4x 9max and still winning pretty solid.
10nl reg+blitz graph https://ibb.co/V9LMyqh
Total graph as of today $1,645 total https://ibb.co/z6YbH84
Best part is no matter how tilted i got i stayed off of roulette and blackjack for 5 months now and learned its ok to go to sleep down $ and not to chase losses.
Also like 80% of these hands were played at horrible hours like 12am-6am eastern so the games were way tougher, the few times i played at prime time hours on a friday i won like 10 buy ins in 3 hours 12 tabling ... https://ibb.co/Yt8bnb0
So the question is where do i go from here? Im having fun at 10nl and have easily made The Beast promo for free $50 every week for the past month. I'm rolled for 25nl, but i wonder if maybe i should do 1 month of a poker training site first...
For me which would u guys suggest (i only play cash games) 1 month of Upswing or 1 month of Johnathan Littles pokercoaching.com site? I think he has a 30 day cash game challenge course. Both are $99
Anyone know how much harder 25nl on ACR is than 10nl blitz?
Should i maybe withdraw some and go to Ignition instead for 25nl +sign up bonus?
submitted by VeritasXIV to poker [link] [comments]

Stories from 12 years of Casino Industry

I was asked to make a post about some stories within the Casino grounds so I thought I'd share. I have many so I'll do my best to pick the better ones.
Some back information: I've been a Casino Dealer for 11 years, I've been a supervisor for five years, and I've been a Surveillance Operator for one year. I've worked at three properties, none of which are connected or owned by the same company. I've worked on : Government/Private/Native American owned casinos.
  1. From Hero to Zero.
At my first Casino, I was one of the first group of people who were trained to deal Roulette . After 4 weeks of working 6PM-3AM then doing roulette training from 3AM-8AM (Not paid) , I actually really enjoyed the game and after about six months I became extremely quick at the number game and the pace of the action was steady with very low margin of errors. Young man walks in, cashes in for $500. He buys in for $2 chips and just loads the board. After a few spins and pretty decent hits, he then changes his chips from $2 to 5$ then to $10 and racks his winnings up to $10,000. It was then, five spins in a row, he loaded the board with some pretty gross bets, and every spin I would hit the ONE number with either NO CHIPS on it, or maybe 1 chip , He lost all $10,000 in a matter of minutes. He leaves , and I go on break. After my break I was going back to the same table and wouldn't you know it, the same young man walks in and cashes in another $500. He tells me he just sold his car outside and this is all that he had left. So we do the same deal, buys in for $2 chips, then slowly starts betting $5 chips, $10, $25...and he makes $10,000 AGAIN. Within the next 25 minutes it was straight agony. Every spin, same thing, he would bet $2500 in chips, and win only $250, $400, and after about a half hour he lost it all . Never saw the guy again.
2) Man down
At this property, we are 24 hours for table games. It's currently 5AM , and I'm dealing some $25 Blackjack to this guy. He's probably early thirties , heavy guy. He's sober as can be, but right away I can tell he's been losing. We know how much you've bought in for, how much your down, or up, and I could see he was down $2000+. After about twenty minutes of pure losing, his temper starts to flare.At this point I now have two other guests at my table. Drinking coffee, not saying a word, just losing their money. After losing hand, after hand, this guy looks me straight in the eye, seized up, starts shaking, he can't move. He tries to punch towards me and smashes his stack of chips all over the place and falls backwards to the floor. I call for security, we cannot touch him due to liability . I can't move from my table because, well, liability / casino cash property, all I can do is try to talk to him. As I'm doing so, these other two woman who are sitting at my table just look at me and one says "OK, dealer, cmon lets go " as she taps the table telling me to start dealing and forget about the guy having a stroke on the floor. As security takes him to the ambulance out front, I had to stay behind for a couple minutes and give a statement. I go on break. I come back, and 45 minutes later, he comes right back in with a oxygen tank and keeps gambling for the remainder of the morning.
3) You get a dildo, and YOU get a dildo!
On a late summer Saturday night, we had a large event for these massive muscle guys/strongman competition type thing. After their show, I'm at the roulette table , and five of these boys come over to play. They were absolutely hilarious. They were feeling pretty good, cashed in somewhat large amounts and I could tell this was going to be a fun time. After about a hour of dealing to these guys, it's almost midnight, everybody is pretty hammered , I spin the ball, and all five of these guys take out these god damn (what I can only tell was) two feet purple dildos from inside their pants, and wiping them around in the air. The ladies were just loving it, one of the dildos landed in the roulette wheel and we had to shut the table down to re-calibrate the wheel to make sure nothing had been changed. I just remember that night was so much damn fun, I couldn't believe what I was seeing and I would never forget it.
4) Full Moon
On this day, I was actually training dealers / supervising them on small games like Three Card poker. We opened the table at 10AM, and this older man came and sat down . He played all day. The jackpot was $21,000 and that was pretty high for this table. He played, and played and played. He's one of the players where you know he's wearing a diaper because he's been drinking coffee/pop all day and hasn't moved in eight hours. As the day went on, this man never moved from his chair. Getting closer to midnight, he was aggravated and said "I need to go have a smoke, I'm getting killed in here". He left, and the very next hand, the lady beside him was dealt the jackpot . He didn't say much, but you could just tell he just hated life at that very moment because had he not gotten up, it would of been his hand. The man calmly took his cane , his hat, jacket, coffee, and left. The next morning I found out when he did leave he drove his car straight through his bank and was arrested.
5) Slick Robber
I actually give props to people who can actually pull this off. This story may confuse you so I'll try and explain things as best as possible. A lot of casinos have machines as soon as you walk through the front doors. A man walks up to one of these machines and sticks in HIS $100 bill. He doesn't gamble it, instead he hits the cash out button and gets a $100 TITO ticket where he then takes the ticket to the ATM machine to get his $100. Now remember, his Original $100 is in the slot machine. He then takes the $100 from the ATM and goes back to the same machine, and repeats this process over a hundred times. Essentially he's taking money from the ATM, and loading up the Slot Machine . Now he knows he can't do it too much because if the slot machine gets full of money, the machine will shut down and the slow attendant will have to take all the cash out. So he deposits over $10,000 , then has a small crowbar, he cracks the machine open and makes a run out the front door. To my knowledge he was never caught . But damn, that was pretty smart .
EDIT:
6) Mental Health is a thing.
10PM man walks in to play some high limit BlackJack. This guy knows the game and played well. Dressed nice, drank juice/tea , a little bit of a attitude, cashed in over $10,000. When this man was half way down his buy in, he said something a long the lines of "If I don't win here tonight, I'm going to go set myself on fire." I wasn't sure if he was serious because when people are down, they tend to say a lot of nonsense. I actually left early that night, and from a third party was told he did exactly that in the parking lot. The next day it was clear something terrible had gone wrong in the parking lot .
EDIT:
7) Nothing good happens after midnight
After a busy Saturday night, I was dealing a mix of games, and during this story I was in the middle of Blackjack. I had one young kid (probably 19) sitting in the middle, one older male probably in his later 40's sitting beside him on his right, and I had a really nice couple in their 20's sitting together at the other side. This young kid wasn't playing just sort of watching, and ever time the old man won he would give this young guy some of his winnings. The older man, was a wine drinker, and he had black between all of his teeth, I'll never forget. He's a little drunk but nothing terrible. As the night goes on, the older man goes and uses the washroom, at which point the couple asked the young guy "Oh was that your dad?" and the young guy says "Hah, no I wish!". The couple and I just looked at each other. This old guy, was in complete control over this kid. Absolutely disgusting. The night ends, and I find out the couple called a few of their friends, and they all waited outside by this old mans truck and beat the living hell out of him. 40 years old, sleeping with a 19 year old, completely brain washed . Very weird.
8) That one co-worker where you just wish they would quit.
One of our co-workers, nice guy but had a very big ego and we as employees just sorta left him alone. One day he had enough of the atmosphere and quit. Now usually when you quit, you cannot come back until you paperwork is finalized. How ever, HR was in that day, and he was given the paperwork the very next day. He came in, cashed in $1000, and made $50,000 in about a hour at the Baccarat table. My manager, was extremely annoyed, because now this guy is just mocking the casino and having the time of his life (Thanks for the big tip by the way :) ) and so he decides to call it quits. He wants to ban himself and he wants $50,000 in cash. The casino says Nope, we are going to give you a cheque. Now here's the thing, most business people will take the cheque, how ever you CANT CASH the cheque until the following monday because it's on that day where the funds are available. The casino on the other hand will cash their own check in anytime , because they want you to play. So this guy pretty much said go to hell I want my cash, and he called the police. Police show up, and management promptly gave him the cash.I though it was absolutely hilarious .

9) No good deed goes un punished
I was dealing Three Card Poker, and the jackpot was around $17,000. This old man (a regular) was sitting there all day grinding it out. Super nice guy, always a pleasure to deal to. Well, after hours of playing, he stands up and says "Hey john!, can you come here for a minute?" so his buddy John comes over. He says to John "I need to go take a piss real quick, can you play my card until I get back?" John agrees . John takes the chips and I stop him and explain he can't play his friends chips, he needs to cash in and play his own. And he does. Welp, second hand out and bam, doesn't he win it. The old man comes back and is so happy, he can't believe it. John, took his $17,000, didn't say a word to his "buddy" and walked away. I never felt so much hatred in all my life. Didn't give him a dollar, not a thank you, nothing. The old man sits back down again, the progressive resets to $2500, and he sat there grinding away again.
10) The Top Knot
I had this player , young guy, who was born into a fortune. One of his relatives passed away and left him a pretty big sizable amount of money, so he played poker every single day for the rest of his days. I will add, he IS a good player. I did not enjoy his company just because of the "Know-it-All" attitude, but he was good. We'll call him John. John is 5'10, and well build, with muscle. John also decided today was the day to show off his Top Knot. (google top knot if you're not sure what I mean) So he sits down, and he's absolutely KILLING the table. Every hand, after hand, after hand. And because he's in such a good mood, he's playing any two cards, calling any $500 bet, and he's just dominating. This one guy at the table decided he had enough. He got up, without saying a word and left. A moment later, he comes back in, walks behind John, and takes a pair of scissors , and cuts off his Top Knot. I for one couldn't believe it, dying laughing inside, and it just turned into one big brawl. That was a good day.
11) That one bad seed
One of my best friends who I haven't seen in YEARS ended up being part of the crew. Was kind of nice to catch up. We never really got along as we grew up because he has a very high picture of himself . He wanted that 10/10 woman. A mansion, and a new Corvette. So every month or so we would all go up to the other casino to play. I myself would bring no more than $500, but I couldn't understand how this guy (we'll call him Kyle) was spending THOUSANDS of dollars at the tables. So this wen on for a few months. Well, one day, as we're closing the casino, he and I are in the High Limit room and we're getting ready to close the tables. We are told to take the chips out, count them, put them back, sign this piece of paper and that's it. Well as the supervisor was locking the tray, the piece of paper fell to the floor, so she asked Kyle to grab the piece of paper. As he bends over, a great big $500 chip falls right out of his sock. Kyle was fired immediately , but it all made sense. They offered Kyle a deal where if he replaced all the stolen chips they would not make it public. Not sure how that turned out.
12) If I ever decide to write a book, this will be the last chapter: <3
After working at my first Casino for five years, I met a Indian woman who was visiting from another part of the country. During this time I was explaining a game to her, which honestly I don't think she even cared. She explained she was visiting and sight seeing , and that was that.Well, two years later I ended up moving to the other side of the country and transferred casinos, and low and behold she worked there as a Dealer. We got married , and it's been 5 years.
13) The Tip
One of our tables that we've had for a couple years had a progressive jackpot that had reached $100,000. The dealer at the table was sitting pretty lonely. Nobody really played the game because people knew it was extremely difficult to win the jackpot. My memory is a tad foggy, but you somehow needed to flop the royal flush. This young guy sits down and says to the dealer, we'll call him John. "John, if you pay me that jackpot, I will tip you $10,000" Well John started dealing, and about a half hour into his shift, he F*cking did it. He dealt him the royal. And you know something?This young lad, kept his word, and he made sure there was a audience, and he tipped exactly $10,000. That was a moment right there. That pay cheque was real nice. I think we all got about $500 more than usual. The moment that jackpot was awarded they got rid of the table because the money it was making was not near what the casino wanted. I'm sure there have been bigger tips at other casinos, but that was something special .
14) The Lawsuit
Now this story I'm going to have to beat around the bush a bit due to the nature of what happened. I can't won't answer any questions that you may have on this topic other than what I have to say because it had a lot of publicity . The waitresses at this casino had to wear very thin sexy clothes. Not borderline legal, but it was noticed. One day they called all the waitresses to come in and explained they were changing their outfit to something even more sexier. Now these new dresses were very very borderline legal . The staff said No way. We're not wearing that.So , friday night comes, and the staff work their whole shift, then at the end of their shift were called into a meeting and were all fired. Welp, one of those ladies father was a pretty big time lawyer. Brough the casino to court and won. They won big. Good for them. We had no waitresses for a couple days haha.
Thanks for reading along, I have many more I can add as the day goes on, those were just some off the top of my head. Feel free to ask any questions of the Casino industry. I don't really have many stories about the surveillance department because that's the one area where I can't really say a whole lot due to its privacy and contracts I was and still am under.
submitted by viodox0259 to TalesFromTheFrontDesk [link] [comments]

I live in a small mining town in the mountains of Colorado. Someone is building a massive casino nearby, Pictures Included

I grew up in a small mountain town named Eureka. It was founded in the late 1800s during the gold rush, but after the mines dried up the town began its slow descent into decay. Half the houses are empty or abandoned now.
You can see a picture of the kind of houses here in Eureka:
First house
Second house
When a massive construction project began nearby, it was the talk of the town for weeks. Why would they build something in a sleepy dying town like Eureka? It wasn’t until my sister Selene talked to a few construction workers that we discovered they were building a casino.
A casino up in the mountains, over two hours away from Denver. None of us could understand why they’d chosen here of all places. After a few months of work, the casino was done.
I took a picture of the town with the completed casino in the background to the right. The ten-story-structure sticks out like a sore thumb off in the distance.
Town+Casino
After the casino opened, they hired a few dozen members of the town, offering high paying jobs to work as dealers or cleaning staff. I was already employed as a firefighter, but my sister Selene got a job as a blackjack dealer. She’s a widow with two young kids, so the paycheck was a real lifesaver.
Still, something about the situation seemed too good to be true. The jobs over there paid far too well, and the management was far too accommodating. The fire station where I work is located high on a hill overlooking the town, so I began watching the casino from a distance each day.
I had initially thought that the casino was located in a terrible location, but I was apparently wrong. True, Eureka was hours from any major city, but despite that, a bus full of people arrived every morning and left every evening.
One night I was over at my parent’s house and had dinner with Selene and her kids. I asked her about her experience as a dealer.
“It’s Ok,” she said. “Just a little boring I guess.”
“Boring?” I asked. “I’m surprised you don’t have your hands full.”
“Why’s that?” she asked. “It’s like you said, Eureka’s too small. I never have people playing cards. The casino is almost always completely empty.”
I wasn’t sure what to make of that. If the place was always empty, what happened to the people who I’d seen arriving on buses? “I’ve been keeping an eye on the building,” I said. “A bus full of people typically arrives around 9 AM every day.”
“Really?” she asked, looking confused. “If that’s true, I’ve never seen them.
“I can see it from the fire station,” I said. “If you head out for a smoke break at 9 AM, you’ll probably see them arriving.”
“Interesting,” she said. “I’ll do that. If they’re being processed for their organs or something, I’ll let you know.” She laughed.
“Har har,” I said sarcastically.
The next night she sent me a text calling me over. When I arrived, she was nearly breathless with excitement.
“Orin, You were right,” she said. “A big group of people did arrive, but they didn’t walk into my part of the casino. Instead, they all walked into an elevator at the back of the building. I’m not sure where that goes.” She looked thoughtful. “It was weird. They looked… How can I say it? Desperate? Something about the whole situation was very off. I’m gonna check out the elevator tomorrow.”
I told her to be careful, though, to be honest, I was excited to hear about what she discovered. When I visited my parent’s house the next night, I found her two kids there alone. They told me that Selene had never returned from work.
I called all her friends, then all our neighbors, but no one had seen her since she left for work that morning. Our conversations regarding the casino flooded my mind, then a plan began to form.
Early the next morning I walked across town in my nicest pair of jeans and a button-up shirt. I pushed through the door to the casino and saw that Selene wasn’t lying. The place was all but deserted. Three dozen slot machines crowded the walls surrounding a few tables interspersed throughout the floor of the casino. The only players in the whole building were Bob and Donald, two locals.
I walked up to a nearby table where Bridget, a girl I’d gone to high school with, was shuffling cards. She broke into a grin when she saw me. “Hey Orin, you here for a few rounds of blackjack?”
“I wish,” I said. “No, I’m here to ask about Selene. She never made it home last night.”
Bridget’s expression darkened. “Really? Have you asked around?”
“I already called around. Have you seen her?”
She shook her head. “No, our schedules rarely line up. I’ll be sure to let you know if I--” Her eyes focused on something behind me, and she cut herself off.
I turned around to see the casino’s pit boss watching us both. He was a tall thin man in an impeccably clean black suit. When I turned back towards Bridget, she was looking down at the table and shuffling cards absent-mindedly.
“Well, if you hear anything, let me know,” I said.
She nodded, so I turned around and headed for the pit boss. I stuck out my hand. The temperature of his hand was so hot that I had to pull my hand away after a few seconds.
“Have… have you seen my sister Selene?” I asked. “She hasn’t been seen since her shift here yesterday.”
He smiled. “Sir, this floor is for players. You’re more than welcome to head to the tellers for chips, but barring that I’m afraid I’ll have to ask you to leave.”
I stared at him for a long second before stalking towards the door. When I looked back, he was talking with Bridget.
I checked my watch. 8:55 AM, just as I’d planned. I walked around the back of the building and waited as the morning bus pulled around the building. I waited for the telltale hiss of the opening doors and the sound of people descending before I rounded the corner and joined the crowd. None of them paid any particular attention to me as I walked with them into the casino.
The crowd walked through a side door down a hallway to an elevator. Small groups of people entered the elevator as the rest of us waited for our turn. I shot a glance at the casino patrons, surprised at their diversity. There seemed to be people from all different countries and ethnicities. I heard one speaking Japanese and another speaking what sounded like an African language.
My turn came along with a few other patrons in the elevator. A sickly woman hobbled into the elevator beside me carrying an IV that was still connected to one of her veins. We piled in and rode up to the top.
The elevator rose for a few long seconds. I wasn’t sure what I would find, but I steeled myself for something horrible. The elevator’s speaker let out a TING, then the doors opened.
We all walked out onto what looked like a standard casino. Another few dozen slot machines ringed the walls, but on this floor, they were almost all occupied by customers. I took in the scene, confused at why they’d have a ground floor that was almost completely empty when this place was almost--
Selene was dealing cards at a nearby table.
I jogged over and sat down at an open seat. None of the players around me paid me much attention.
“Selene!” I said. “Are you OK? Did you spend the night here last night?”
Her eyes were glassy and confused. She looked up at me with a dumb expression and didn’t respond to my question.
“Selene?” I asked.
“What’s your bet?” she asked me. “This table is for blackjack players only.”
“I…” I trailed off, looking at the players around me. None of them were betting with chips of any kind. “What’s the minimum bet?” I asked.
“Three years,” she responded.
“Three years then,” I said, not knowing what that referred to.
Selene nodded, then began dealing cards. I shot a look down at my hand. King and a 9. Selene dealt out cards for herself, showing a 9. I stood, then leaned forward again. “Should I call the police? Are you--”
“Congratulations,” she said tonelessly.
An almost impossibly warm hand grabbed my shoulder. I spun to see the pit boss I’d spoken to earlier. He gave an impressed smile. “Orin, was it? I’m impressed, truly. Would you mind if I had a word with you?”
I shot a look back at Selene who was dealing the next round of cards. Then I got to my feet, balling my hands into fists. “What did you do to her?”
The pit boss clasped his hands behind his back. “Nothing more, and nothing less than what I’m going to do to you. That is, offer you the chance to play.”
“What the hell is that supposed to mean?”
The pit boss nodded his head towards a nearby slot machine. A woman in a wheelchair pulled a lever and watched the flashing numbers spin. They exploded in a cacophony of sirens and flashing lights. “WINNER WINNER WINNER!” The machine screeched.
The woman in the wheelchair put her feet on the ground and stood up on a pair of wobbly legs that had clearly never been used before.
“As in any other casino,” the pit boss said, “you must wager for the chance to win.”
“She... won the use of her legs?” I asked, feeling light-headed. “Wait,” I said. “I played blackjack just now. ‘Three years,’ Selene told me. What does ‘three years’ mean?” I asked.
“Three years of life, of course. Did you win?”
My mouth felt dry. “I-- Yes, I won.”
He smiled warmly. “Congratulations. I hope you enjoy them. I can tell you from personal experience that watching the decades pass is a bore. Give it some time and you’ll be back to spend them.”
I watched the pit boss’s face. He couldn’t have been more than a few years older than me, and I was in my early thirties. I looked around at the casino. No one was playing with chips of any kind. “So what?” I asked. “I won years of life. That woman won the use of her legs. What else can a person win here?”
“Oh, almost anything. They can win almost anything you can imagine.”
A cold feeling settled in my stomach. “And what do they wager?”
His eyes flashed with greed. “Almost anything. They can wager almost anything you can possibly imagine. Anything equal in value to the item they want in return.” He nodded towards a nearby roulette table.
A man stood by the table, cradling his hands. “Another finger,” he called out. He only had three fingers remaining on his left hand. As I watched, the ball came to a stop, and another finger disappeared from his left hand.
The pit boss extended his hands. “Feel free to try any of our games. Bet and win whatever you’d like.” He reached out and snatched my hand. A feeling of intense warmth passed up my arm to my chest. “There,” he said. “I’ve even given you some house money to get you started. An extra decade of life, on me.”
I ripped my hand away, staring at him in horror. Then I looked back at Selene. Something clicked in my mind. “You offered her the chance to play. What did she want?” I asked.
“Her husband,” the pit boss said. “Quite the sad story. He died two years ago. She wanted him brought back to her.”
“What did she wager?” I asked.
“She wanted the chance to win a soul, the most valuable object in existence. I’m sure you can imagine what she needed to wager for the chance to win it. What she wagered is unimportant. The important question is: What do you want, Orin?”
I stared at Selene with a flat expression. “I’m sure you can imagine.”
His eyes flashed with greed again. “How wonderful. The casino could always make use of another dealer. Feel free to make your wager at any one of our games; I’ll be eagerly awaiting the results of your night. Oh, and do take advantage of our waitresses. We always supply food and drink for ‘high rollers’.” He walked away.
I spent the next few hours trying to decide which game to play. I was going to be wagering my soul, so I wanted the highest chance possible. Slots and roulette were out. I’d done some reading online about counting cards, so I figured that blackjack gave me the best odds.
I walked up to Selene’s table and sat down. “Bet?” she asked with that same toneless voice. “Three years,” I said.
I spent the next hour or so doing my best to remember how to count cards. I knew that low cards added one to my count and high cards decreased it by one, but the casino used three decks. I had read something about how that was supposed to change my calculation, but I couldn’t quite remember how.
Every time I won a hand, I cursed myself for not putting everything on the line. Every time I lost, I breathed a prayer of thanks that I’d waited. And all the while, I kept track of the count.
I had lost fifteen years of life when the count finally reached +5.
“Bet?” Selene asked.
“I wager my soul so you can be free,” I said.
The table around me fell silent. Selene’s eyes flickered, but she showed no other emotion as she dealt the cards. I watched my first card, punching the air in excitement when I saw a Jack. My excitement turned to ash when my second card was a four. Fourteen.
I looked at her hand. One card was facedown, but the faceup card was a King. I swore loudly, staring down at my hands.
“Hit?” she asked. The entire table was silently watching me.
“Hit,” I said, not looking down. The table erupted in cheers. I looked down to see a 7 atop my two other cards. 21. Blackjack.
I looked at Selene who flipped over her facedown card to reveal a 9. 19. I won.
The glassy look left her eyes immediately. She looked around in surprise, then her eyes locked on mine. “Orin?” she asked, then almost immediately began to cry. The entire casino broke out in cheers.
I grabbed her hand and headed for the elevator. The doors had begun to close when the pit boss reached out with a hand to stop them.
“Congratulations,” he said, beaming. He seemed to be honestly excited.
“Shouldn’t you be upset?” I asked.
“Not at all. Casinos love it when we have big winners. It inspires the other players to make larger bets. I imagine I’ll gain two or three dealers before the night is through from your performance.”
“Great,” I said flatly. “Now let us go.”
“Not yet,” he said. “You didn’t just win, Orin. You got a blackjack. And blackjack pays out 1.5 times your bet. You won your sister’s soul and more.”
I stared, not sure what to say. “What are you saying? I won half a soul extra?”
The pit boss grinned wildly. “Just remember what I said. You’ll find living for decades and decades to be a boring experience. After a few centuries, you’ll be back to gamble that half a soul away. Congratulations!”
He removed his hand, and the elevator doors slammed shut.
I helped Selene back to her house. Her children were relieved. I watched them cry, then moved into the kitchen to start making dinner.
It’s been a few days since that experience. The casino is still out there, and buses full of people still arrive. I… I cut my hand pretty bad a few days later. When I checked it an hour later, it had already healed, no scar or anything. I’m not sure exactly what I won at that casino, but there’s no way I’m ever going back.
X
submitted by Worchester_St to nosleep [link] [comments]

Trading Subscriptions or other Paid Services

I used to be a Financial Advisor for a very brief period almost 10 years ago for Peter Schiff. At the time I was in my early 20s and liked a lot of what he said. He frustrates me a lot more now and fails to adapt accordingly. Anyhow, I now run junkiebonds.com. Mostly a website researching US macro and discussing the worst institution ever created: The Federal Reserve.
Here’s some quick advice for beginners and even further on up I’m sure.
I've seen an unbelievable amount of these advertisements in the last few weeks. I just came across a comment in this room about just beginning and who to trust for paid services.
This may seem counterintuitive but if you're just beginning in the stock market DO NOT buy anything for education or trading. All the material you need is available for free online. Investopedia and YouTube have everything.
If you're just beginning you need to educate yourself and make small purchases. Education is the easiest part of trading in the stock market. The hard part is educating yourself about yourself. I've seen a few beginners that trade frequently and have done very well - in all likelihood they'll eventually lose all of their gains(+95% chance at bare minimum).
Stay away from paid services that claim they can help you trade. 99% are bullshit. Only experienced individuals should use these services because those individuals most likely know the few real people or firms that actually provide value. Experienced traders use these services for insight, education, and to help their process. Beginners have other obstacles to deal with first before these would properly benefit them.
Fuck Tim Sykes, those raging bull fucks, and others. They're full of shit. They are just a salesman using flashy marketing. It doesn't mean they haven't ever done well themselves - I think Tim Sykes actually did - but they realize selling hope, making millions, along with a little education is not just more profitable but it also eliminates risk.
In my opinion, I believe I could start a very “successful” subscription service. It’s aggravating seeing these guys because fooling beginners is almost like shooting fish in a barrel. But I’m not going to start a business where 95% of profits are based off of fooling others with slick marketing.
If anybody comes across a service you may be interested in but aren’t sure of its validity, feel free to send it to me and I’ll provide my two cents.
I’m going to explain trading by summarizing how I go about it. I’m not a day trader - I’m not making multiple trades a day and I recommend you do not do that either unless you want to lose money.
Before joining Euro Pacific Capital I would make a few trades a day. 50% of my portfolio was for long term investments 1+ years and the other for my speculation. I was fortunate enough to begin these investments at end of 2008 and early 2009. The long term side would do well and my speculations did alright too. The problem was I had big goals and desires for more wealth even though I had almost doubled the 12500 in less than a year. This led me to abandon stock speculating/trading because gains were too small and slow. However, stock options provided the leverage needed and I thought I had a trading process that would work.
Btw... “back in those days” I was paying 5.99 to buy and then 5.99 again to sell every trade! In 2010 my commissions were well above 2gs.
Reflecting on it now my process was abysmal and I’m surprised I was able to hold up for time I did. I was making reckless trades but one in particular really boosted my confidence. I bought far OTM calls on VXX(volatility) that expired in a few days. It was only a 100 dollars or so.
The market got slaughtered the next day. My calls were up over 4000%. I was up 4,950 dollars at 1205pm and then 4,150 a few minutes later. I believe I exited with a return of just over 4,300% which was a close figure to the actual dollars I made.
Here’s one of the most important points I’ll make: a PROFITABLE trade does not make it a GOOD trade by any means. That’s still one of the largest returns I’ve ever had and certainly the quickest but it was foolish.
It’s like going up to the roulette table and placing money on any number. The outcome of the spin does not change the fact this is a bad decision. Do not fool yourself by thinking your gains are all good decisions or investments. The only way you can have a good bet playing roulette is if you have knowledge or insight which puts the odds in your favor. And the only way you can do that is through some illegal con I believe. However, the market is not roulette. It can be. It can be worse if you make it that way.
Moving on... A few months after the big gain I had steadily lost money and I was getting a bit frustrated ——-
understanding how your emotions impact your thought processes and decision making is fundamental. There’s no manual for this part because every tradeperson is different. Happiness can and will influence your decisions. For some people it may cause them to be less disciplined or open to taking a risk and for others it will do the opposite. Traders create a process to eliminate the effects emotions can have - a simple example is to set a stop loss on a trade so you aren’t trying to guess when or if should prevent further losses or risk it. It’s important for beginners to do this. Do not enter trades where the losses cause worry and stress and you have no idea whether or not to sell. I don’t always have pre determined actions when I trade these days but I’ve also been doing this for over a decade and there are trades where it’s not as important or just not a good strategy. Again, if you’re a beginner please do not do this.
Back to my frustration... I entered an abnormally large call option order attempting to make up some losses - another stupid and beginner mistake. Unfortunately, the next day my parents needed help moving to Florida from Iowa. I had a 5g option that expired in 4 days and I wasn’t at my computer so I put in an order to (stop)sell if it so happens to fall quite a bit. This stock was amazon and it just so happens a negative headline came out right before opening bell. I had no idea bc I was still sleeping and dealing with moving.
The option price was around 5.20 and I had 10. My stop was at 4.
At 1030am we were going out for lunch and I went to check my position.
I was down 4,700 dollars.... because I put a LIMIT at 3.85.
You see, On this trade I went through ETRADE for whatever reason and I knew these sleezy guys sell their order flow - oh, btw Robinhood also sells their stock option orders but it’s really only important for a very small% of ppl - basically ETRADE profits from selling orders to other brokers who then complete your trade. So if these guys can see a price quickly drop and pop back up they’ll execute your order at worst price and then sell it for a profit a second later. Free money.
I was trying to limit any excessive scalping by putting a limit but amazon dropped quickly so E*TRADE of course did not get my order executed. If they were an honest and customer first company the order would’ve been executed and I wouldn’t have lost thousands of dollars. However, ultimately it is my fault and once again a stupid trade.
Trading is different from investing. Being an advisor certainly doesn’t make you a good trader. Advisors are typically there to plan long term investments and get to know their client so they’re able to adjust the risk in their portfolio accordingly.
A year or so after amazon I was working for Peter Schiff. He had really exploded in popularity because his predictions about the housing bubble all came to fruition. As an advisor you can’t trade. I was only there for a year because my mother was diagnosed with pancreatic cancer and I left to be with her. I had to save funds and for a few years after didn't trade either.
These days I'm back trading but its much different. I enjoy macro research and writing so i use this to my advantage. In 2020, I made around 40 trades total. Some of these are still open. Most of my trades are options and last a few weeks to months but two open positions don't expire until Jan 2022. Last year I made a return of 135%. I made a few huge mistakes and one out of laziness. Earlier in the year I was up 200%. I believe my process is solid but also needs improvement.
I try to limit my trades and find areas I'm most confident in. I also recommend you do not make hasty decisions. MISSING TRADES can be hard but it's a much better result. 135% really isn't that great of a gain considering how well the market did and the style of my trading. I missed many trades I was really confident in and thought were easy bc I have a strategy that may require 100% of my proceeds into Few positions. It sucks knowing I should've and could've easily had a 400/500% year if I chose to be aggressive. But I stick to my game plan because I'm confident later this year or next my returns will be multiple 1000s of percent. Maybe I'm wrong. We will see. I do best when Im unbelievably confident in an outcome and yet able to remain patient. I find I can do better or much worse if I change these.
My friend that's a girl did better than me because she bought her first and only stock this year which was Tesla. Does it suck underperforming your beginner girl friend having been in this trade for 10 years?
Absolutely.
But all of that noise must be drowned out lol. Everybody has to find their own way and what works best for them. I don't use reddit too often but for some reason I received an invitation to this board and joined tonight. I figured I'd share my thoughts and story and I hope this helped. I didn't proofread this.
My website is junkiebonds.com and you can find me on @Twitter at @junkiebonds - I started both in 2020 but am just really beginning to take off.
I'm always willing to help anybody with questions. Thanks for reading
submitted by 9Basel9 to MoonGangCapital [link] [comments]

I finally got my Astrope mount! Here's how my mentor roulettes went

I finally got my Astrope mount! Here's how my mentor roulettes went
Hi everyone - I'm really excited because I finally obtained my Astrope mount yesterday! It's been my dream to own this mount since I was just a little sprout in this game. I'm sitting at 5294 commendations now that I finally have it.
I wanted to share some insights into my mentor roulette experience. I have a table of the duties I completed at the bottom of this post!
My character riding on the Astrope mount!
I'm from the Primal Data Center, and I became a mentor (and unlocked the Duty Roulette: Mentor) after the Shadowbringers release. I finished my 2000th mentor roulette yesterday, prior to the 5.4 patch release, so all 2000 duties were completed during the Shadowbringers era.
For background, the Astrope mount is obtained by successfully completing 2000 Mentor Roulettes. In order to unlock access to the Mentor Roulette, you need to:
  1. become a combat mentor (1500 commendations, 1000 duty completions, Lv 80 + completion of the Crystarium role quests in at least 1 tank, 1 healer, and 1 DPS class), and
  2. you need to have successfully completed every single duty in the game, including extreme trials, as these are all fair game and can pop up as a duty in the mentor roulette (the exceptions are: Ultimate fights, Savage fights, current expansion extreme fights - so the Shadowbringers extremes, and Binding Coils).
At the beginning, I ran the mentor roulette primarily as a tank/healer; tank because I wanted the Adventurer in Need gil bonus, and healer because I was a healer main going into this endeavor. However, I found the experience to be unbelievably draining, and started to queue almost exclusively as a DPS after awhile.
As a tank or healer, I primarily got queued into Castrum Meridianum, The Praetorium, and dungeons. I'm NOT kidding about Castrum Meridianum. That MSQ dungeon popped up SO. FREAKING. MUCH. Trials and Raids rarely came up when I played as a Tank/Healer.
As a DPS, I essentially got queued into everything, EXCEPT for Castrum Meridianum and The Praetorium. In WELL over 1000 runs as a DPS, I only got Castrum Meridianum and The Praetorium 1 time each. I enjoyed running the mentor roulette much, much more as a DPS.
Wait times. Healer pops instantly. Tank usually pops instantly; if you have to wait, the wait is always short. DPS is across the board; sometimes it's instant, sometimes you wait a little, but you never need to wait long. I think the longest I ever waited in the DPS queue was for 6 minutes.

https://preview.redd.it/vw0f8i18ld261.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=bcce35ba19e4439322c31159131b06dd38115c93
Giving advice. People generally didn't want advice, didn't listen to advice if given, and sometimes even responded with hostility to tips/etc, even if they were performing very poorly, so I learned to (most of the time) silently endure if duties weren't going well. The most notable exception was in the context of synced extreme fights, where people were mostly receptive to taking advice and learning mechanics. I always felt so happy and proud of the sprouts who were able to learn and improve quickly enough to clear within the allotted 1 hr session. (I even had a team that was able to clear Nidhogg Extreme a.k.a. The Minstrel's Ballad: Nidhogg's Rage synced within the hour! One of my proudest moments in the Mentor Roulette, I think.)
Duty Failures. I only ever saw "Duty Failed" in synced Extreme fights, and ONE TIME in the Amaurot dungeon. Indeed, that Amaurot run was 90 minutes of pure suffering as I helplessly watched my party fail mechanics until the duty timer finally ran out; I was a dragoon, so I couldn't help resurrect my teammates. It was not the only time that my Amaurot run took over 1 hr, though. I saw people struggle in that dungeon a LOT.
Synced Extremes. I absolutely, most certainly did get placed into a solid number of extreme fights. Based on the data I collected (see below), they accounted for 9.2% of the duties I completed towards my mentor roulette. While they thankfully accounted for a relatively small % of duties, they did always, always take a LOT of time and effort. They typically ran for almost the full 60 minutes.
The most common extremes to come up were The Striking Tree (Extreme) (Lv 50, Ramuh), Akh Afah Amphitheatre (Extreme) (Lv 50, Shiva), and The Great Hunt (Extreme) (Lv 70, Rathalos).
My clear rate for synced extremes was pretty decent; I took the time to type out and teach the fight mechanics almost every time I got queued into an extreme, and I would try to coach players who were struggling but played a crucial role in the fight. Many, if not most, teams were actually pretty receptive and understanding about needing to respect the mechanics. However, there were also many, many lost causes -- times where no amount of instruction or guidance would be sufficient to get a team to clear. I did still see "Duty Failed" a lot (RIP those wasted 1hr sessions). (Also, thank you to the other mentors running the roulette -- the chance of successfully clearing/clearing faster was significantly higher if there were other mentors in the duty with me).
Guildhests. I wish I got into more guildhests. They were very stress-free, quick, and easy to clear. I saw in another mentor's data from 2 years ago that guildhests accounted for 68.8% of their total completed runs, but that was absolutely NOT the case for me. Based on the data I collected (see below), guildhests accounted for only 16.9% of my mentor roulettes.

https://preview.redd.it/p5h8bcvknc261.png?width=1920&format=png&auto=webp&s=3a85eb0405c975efdabfbda791eca8d38149f316
Statistics! Data! What I was queued into. This data is incomplete and only captures data from 1375/2000 completions. NOTE: I only counted successful duty completions. There were times I got queued into a duty and we failed or collectively abandoned the duty (typically Extreme fights), and there were also times where I solo abandoned a duty (typically Castrum Meridianum, The Praetorium or Extreme fights), but these were not counted.
I started recording after I'd completed ~250 mentor roulettes, and stopped tabulating as I neared completion of the achievement. The data isn't complete, but I can say that what I did record does give a pretty accurate depiction of the duties I was getting placed into.

Duty Tank Healer DPS TOTAL
Dungeons 127 237 221 585 (42.5%)
Dungeons (Lv 1-49) 18 50 14
Dungeons (Lv 50) 16 32 30
Castrum Meridanum 16 25 1
The Praetorium 5 5 1
Dungeons (Lv 51-59) 8 21 18
Dungeons (Lv 60) 10 17 14
Dungeons (Lv 61-69) 5 26 9
Dungeons (Lv 70) 8 18 23
Dungeons (Lv 71-79) 27 36 31
Dungeons (Lv 80) 14 7 80
Guildhests 17 32 183 232 (16.9%)
Hard/Normal Trials 16 28 137 181 (13.2%)
A Realm Reborn Trials 4 21 56
Heavensward Trials 1 2 18
Stormblood Trials 9 5 28
Shadowbringers Trials 2 0 35
Extreme Trials 20 16 89 126 (9.2%)
ARR Extremes 19 12 60
HW Extremes 0 2 12
SB Extremes 1 2 17
Normal Raids 18 12 178 208 (15.1%)
Alexander Raids 8 5 72
Omegascape Raids 2 3 57
Eden's Raids (Gate & Verse only) 8 4 49
Alliance Raids 2 2 39 43 (3.1%)
Crystal Tower 24-Man Raids 0 1 13
Void Ark 24-Man Raids 2 0 5
Ivalice 24-Man Raids 0 1 12
Nier 24-Man Raids (Copied Factory & Puppets' Bunker only) 0 0 9

Thank you for reading, and good luck to anyone out there who is also working towards this mount!
submitted by AKASerene to ffxiv [link] [comments]

GW12 Expected Points and Four Point Hit Calculator

GW12 Expected Points and Four Point Hit Calculator
Hi all,
See below for the updated expected points analysis and four point hit calculator for the coming next 6 gameweeks. After the graphs you’ll find a small analysis for each position and the spreadsheet itself with the calculator (with a guide on using them from last week).
Please note, the axis on each graph no longer matches up with the other positions. This was so more players could be fit in each analysis, but does mean cross comparing between forwards and midfielders etc is harder.
Data is accurate as of yesterday, prices may have changed
Injured players are removed, doubtful players are highlighted in yellow, rotation risks are highlighted in red.
https://imgur.com/a/fySQ123

Caveat around playing time and rotation risk

The expected points calculation uses the average time each player spends on the pitch and so does not account well for players who are at risk from rotation of not playing at all (players that are substituted with some regularity are fine).
That being the case I have highlighted in red players who have missed two or more gameweeks in the last seven matches and so may underperform against these results if they do not make appearances in the following gameweeks. Should these missing gameweeks in the past have occurred due to injury or suspension and not due to manager preference the warning can be ignored.
In summary: *You are best placed choosing and using this analysis to inspect regularly starting players.*

Results from the Analysis

Forwards

https://preview.redd.it/nnepzndyj5461.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=a09c3a5850c4d3dd3f3422dc992b6d01c45945f2

Best performers

Harry Kane and Jamie Vardy are still out and out the best options for point scoring and carry the premium they deserve for holding that position. Harry Kane also remains excellent value for that position.
While still less likely to provide the same amount of points as those two, Dominic Calvert-Lewin remains an excellent option with great value for money as a secondary premium option.

Value buys

There is a cluster of excellent value in the forward position with Bamford leading the pack of Ollie Watkins, Callum Wilson, Maupay and Che Adams. Callum Wilson remains the better ‘set and forget’ option of that cluster with his expected value less dependent on a better run of scoring fixtures in the next 6 gameweeks.

Who to avoid

Timo Werner and Firmino, while still decent point scorers, are well overpriced for their expectations and represent great opportunities to free up capital in your budget by upgrading to better value options already mentioned.
Anyone not calculated to expect more than 20 points in the next six gameweeks should be avoided.

Opportunities to find a positive differential

· Upgrading Werner or Firmino to DCL
· Upgrading Ings, Richarlison, Abraham, Lacazette, Martial or Cavani to any of the ‘Value pack’ or DCL if he can be afforded.

Midfielders

https://preview.redd.it/yq4wt6mzj5461.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=4a86c83e39f850c160ae967151b9c86655bc0490

Best performers

As before there remains a strong cluster of excellent performers in the top right, Salah, KDB, Mane and Fernandes are all excellent premium players to hold and are the biggest likely point scorers in the FPL (bar Kane who is amongst them). Of these players Salah and Fernandes are still the best value.

Value buys

Of the ‘secondary premium’ area of midfielders (Son, Rashford, Mahrez, Grealish, Zaha and Maybe Rodriguez) Mahrez leads the line with an excellent likely points return and good price point but is subject to Pep roulette. That being the case Grealish and Zaha may be your best value opportunities with Son and Rashford also good point scorers but much less value for money. (Son keeps on outperforming his expected returns so far. Whether he returns to the mean or continues to be an outlier is yours to judge)
Diogo jota is limited by his average minutes, restricting his opportunity to score more. If he features more than he has in the past his stats will improve which seems like a good opportunity for a gamble if you feel he will.

Who to avoid

Raheem Sterling – (as before) Good point scoring potential, awful value for money. Costs in the vicinity of the premium options but is expected to return the same amount as a secondary premium option. You could afford Fernandes at his price point.
Aubamayeng- Massive outlier for expected points return against price. Unless he has a dramatic change in form he should absolutely be traded out, looking at you the 9.4% of players who still have him.
Anyone else expected to score less than 23 points in the next 6 gameweeks - It doesn’t matter how much value for money they are if they won’t score points and get in your team

Opportunities to find a positive differential

Mane can be traded to KDB or Fernandes
Raheem Sterling or Aubamayeng into Fernandes, Son, Mahrez or Grealish
Rashford into Grealish or Mahrez

Defenders

https://preview.redd.it/tmedv1s0k5461.png?width=913&format=png&auto=webp&s=a8c74482d3d978b2937d9deb2920d9745b8a5bd4
(Defenders are much more tightly clustered and do not represent as great an opportunity to find a positive differential against other players because of it.)

Best Performers

Andrew Robertson is far and away the likeliest to score the most but carries a hefty price tag for it.
Below Robertson is a cluster of excellent options in Chilwell, Reguilon, Dias and Cancelo. All of whom are good choices as long as they start regularly. (let me know if any of those should be tagged as rotation risks like Doherty) Of these, Chillwell is absolutely nailed on to start.
The secondary premium pack beyond the above options is led by Dier and includes Reece the Stamford Fridge James and Mings.

Value Buys

Because Defenders are so clustered none are stand out outliers for value for money but of them:
· Max Kilman
· Stuart Dallas
· João Cancelo
· Rúben Dias
· Arthur Masuaku
· Luke Ayling
· Eric Dier
Seem the most undervalued.

Who to Avoid

As before, there are no real very poor options of the players that turn up in the analysis, but I would still seek to optimise for the best performers and may avoid Walker, Semedo and Telles as poorer value for money.

Requested players

Some commenters requested specific players to be included, I have tried to make sure that they are, but where they do not meet the cut off point for the graphs and this post they are now included in the spreadsheet for your own analysis (y)


The Results Spreadsheet and Four Point Hit Calculator

See link here: https://gofile.io/d/Iw8TZU

guide from last week:

Outcomes

The Four Point Hit Calculator is designed to inform decisions on whether or not it is worthwhile to take a four point hit to make a transfer. It should allow you to avoid making poor decisions that might initially seem attractive and also take advantage of differences in expected value that you may not have foreseen
The Expected Points Analysis in the spreadsheet should allow you to make better decisions on which players to fill your team with, find the best value for money and see who is likeliest to score the most points in the coming gameweek for captaincy and inclusion decisions.

Caveats

I have only included players in each category that surpass a certain number of minutes played and contribute to a certain amount of points. This means that some players will be missing from the analysis this week but this is to avoid overcrowding of the graphs and ensure there is enough of a sample size in their playtime. So apologies if your player is not on this list. But this may well be an indicator that you should look at switching that player out for someone who is on the list.

Contents of the spreadsheet

Summary

The four main sheets are the 4PH calculator, Forwards, Midfielders and Defenders.
Four point hit (4ph) calculator – Helps you make decisions on whether taking a four point hit to make a trade is worth it based on expected point scoring between the two players in the coming game weeks
Forwards – Provides the data and analysis on the expected points and value for money based on those points for forwards in the coming six gameweeks. This is to help you choose which players to get, the composition of your team and who to captain.
Important graph for forwards (Forw Chart) – A scatter graph of forwards based on their Cumulative expected points score from the next six game weeks and their price (I may change it back to having the Y axis represent value for money rather than price depending on feedback)
Midfielders – Same as for Forwards but with Midfielders
Important graph for Midfielders (Mid Chart) - Same as for Forwards but with Midfielders
Defenders - Same as for Forwards but with Defenders
Important graph for Defenders (Def Chart) - Same as for Forwards but with Defenders

Four Point Hit Calculator

How to use it

Select your current player in the ‘current player’ box, and the player you are looking to switch into in the ‘Target player’ box.
The table below will display in the ‘worth it?’ row when and if the transfer will be worth the four point hit.
For it to be worth it you want the deficit to be made up as soon as possible and then held or increased. This is not a hard and fast rule, you may decide it is still worth it to free up capital to purchase a different target whose difference in expected value from their transfer makes up the difference.

How it works

The calculator works by calculating when the target player will outperform the current player in expected points by 4 in the coming gameweeks(recouping the value), but with an ‘uncertainty’ handicap applied to the target player to help protect against variance.

Why have Uncertainty factored in?

When taking a 4PH you are trading off a definite loss of four points for an expected likelihood it will be recouped by the trade in the future (and then some). Given this is the case you want to be sure it is worth it. Things can go wrong, players could get injuries, players can under and overperform and managers can bench players that fall out of favour.
The Uncertainty buffer is to help ensure that should a player you take a hit to trade into underperforms on expectation by as much as 10% each gameweek you will still be able to feel assured it is likely to be worth it. You can adjust the value of this uncertainty to meet your risk appetite.

Expected Points Sheets

(Forwards, Midfielders and Defenders)
The below sections explain the different sections of the spreadsheets

Unadjusted Results (in Purple)

The average expected points and average expected points per million in cost in an average gameweek based on the players performance, not adjusted to the coming fixtures in the next six gameweeks.
Useful for seeing who the general strong performers have been so far and who may have less need of being swapped in and out based on fixture difficulty.

Fixture Adjusted predictions for next 6 Gameweeks (In Gold - most important section)

This is the most important section of the sheet and should inform your decision making on team selection when making transfers.
The cumulative expected points the players are predicted to accrue in the next six gameweeks, adjusted to the opportunities and difficulties that the teams they are facing are likely to provide. This lets you know who is expected to be scoring the most points, a graph of it is below the table with a light green background
The Value for money (VFM) of the fixture adjusted cumulative expected points in the next six game weeks is the previous column divided by the price in millions of the players. This stat lets you know who is the most value for the money and helps you understand who is over and under priced, letting you pick up some value buys likely to rise in value and get out at the top of assets that are no longer worth it. A graph of these values is below the main table with a light blue background.

Expected points for the next six Gameweeks (Green)

This section itemises where the players are likely to get their points so you can see where they hit a run of good games.
The main use for this section is to understand on each week who should be included in your team and who should be captain with the highest expected score.

Expected points per million in cost for next 6 Gameweeks (Blue)

Let’s you see where players will be of most value for money in the coming Gameweeks to see if there is a certain point you should switch out or into them.

Cumulative Expected points for the next six Gameweeks (Green)

Used for the Four Point Hit Calculator, not as much value in this spreadsheet

Cumulative Expected points per million in cost for next 6 Gameweeks (Blue)

Considering removing this from the dashboard, unsure of any value it provides. Let me know if you find it useful for anything.

Averages

This area above the main table makes clear the average expected points scored in a given gameweek and the average value for money. Average expected points scored is useful to identify when using your wildcards may be useful
Thanks for reading all this, let me know if you’ve found this useful or have any recommendations for improvement or feedback.(Y)
Feedback from last week was really useful and has been acted on so please let me know if there's anything else that would be useful :)
If you would like to pay me money to post this analysis or my calculator with its future improvements to your blog or website HMU.
submitted by ClothoMoirai to FantasyPL [link] [comments]

combating plagiarism through NCT lyrics: episode 1 | "The Fluidity of the Stock Market" - Regular

Note: you can also view this paper through Google Docs or email me at [[email protected]](mailto:[email protected]) for the Word document. Feel free to use this however you'd like, including reposting on other social media as long as you leave a comment with a link to the post. I am not liable for the consequences of your actions :)

------------------------

Running head: FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 1

The Fluidity of the Stock Market
Klaunn N. Setacense
Department of Witticism, NeoCulture Technological Institute
BS105: The Literary Art of Constructing Arguments of Absurdity
Dr. Tyler Lee
April 1, 2020


FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 2
Table of Contents
Abstract................................................................................................................................3
The Fluidity of the Stock Market ........................................................................................4
Stock Exchange ...................................................................................................................4
Market Participant ...........................................................................................................5
History. ........................................................................................................................7
References .........................................................................................................................12


FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 3
Abstract
Stock exchange has a network of computers where trades are made electronically. Their buy or sell orders may be executed on their behalf by a stock exchange trader. The Paris Bourse, now part of Euronext, is an order-driven, electronic stock exchange. Many large companies have their stocks listed on a stock exchange. The process is similar to the New York Stock Exchange. A stock exchange is an exchange where stockbrokers and traders can buy and sell shares, bonds, and other securities. Investment in the stock market is most often done via stockbrokerages and electronic trading platforms. Stockbrokers met on the trading floor of the Palais Brongniart. This method is used in some stock exchanges and commodities exchanges, and involves traders shouting bid and offer prices.
Keywords: stock, exchange, market, trading, price, securities, investors, traded, trade
FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 4
The Fluidity of the Stock Market
A stock market, equity market, or share market is the aggregation of buyers and sellers of stocks, which represent ownership claims on businesses; these may include securities listed on a public stock exchange, as well as stock that is only traded privately, such as shares of private companies which are sold to investors through equity crowdfunding platforms. For example, Nestlé and Novartis are domiciled in Switzerland and traded on the SIX Swiss Exchange, so they may be considered as part of the Swiss stock market, although the stocks may also be traded on exchanges in other countries, for example, as American depositary receipts on “Diamonds on my neck. The source of light revolves around me (Let's go!) You gon’ hold up, hold up, hold up for a real one” (Dejun Xiao & Sicheng Dong, 2019). The total market capitalization of equity backed securities worldwide rose from US$2.5 trillion in 1980 to US$68.65 trillion at the end of 2018. As of December 31, 2019, the total market capitalization of all stocks worldwide was approximately US$70.75 trillion.
Stock Exchange
Many large companies have their stocks listed on a stock exchange. This makes the stock more liquid and thus more attractive to many investors. The exchange may also act as a guarantor of settlement. These and other stocks may also be traded "Yeah, pull up in the Jag. Haters gon' be mad” (Taeyong Lee, 2018). Some large companies will have their stock listed on more than one exchange in different countries, so as to attract international investors. Stock exchanges may also cover other types of securities, such as fixed-interest securities or derivatives, which are more likely to be traded OTC. The New York Stock Exchange is a physical exchange, with a hybrid market for placing orders electronically from any location as well as on the trading floor. Orders executed on the trading floor enter by way of exchange

FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 5
members and flow down to a floor broker, who submits the order electronically to the floor trading post for the Designated market maker for that stock to trade the order.
The DMM's job is to maintain a two-sided market, making orders to buy and sell the security when there are no other buyers or sellers. If a bid–ask spread exists, no trade immediately takes place – in this case the DMM may use their own resources to close the difference. Once a trade has been made, the details are reported on the "Diamonds drippin' better bring your raincoat (Splash)" and sent back to the brokerage firm, which then notifies the investor who placed the order (Jung-woo Kim, 2018). Computers play an important role, especially for program trading. The NASDAQ is an electronic exchange, where all of the trading is done over a computer network.
The process is similar to the New York Stock Exchange. One or more NASDAQ market makers will always provide a bid and ask the price at which they will always purchase or sell 'their' stock. The Paris Bourse, now part of Euronext, is an order-driven, electronic stock exchange. It was automated in the late 1980s. Prior to the 1980s, it consisted of an open outcry exchange. Stockbrokers met on the trading floor of the Palais Brongniart. In 1986, the CATS trading system was introduced, and the order matching system was fully automated. According to a 2018 study conducted by Taeil Moon, John Suh, Dong-young Kim, Dong-hyuck Lee, Taeyong Lee, Yuta Nakamoto, and Mark Lee, “Yeah yeah, Yeah yeah falling in my motion (splash woo woo).” People trading stock will prefer to trade on the most popular exchange since this gives the largest number of potential counter parties and probably the best price.
Market Participant
Market participants include individual retail investors, institutional investors, and also publicly traded corporations trading in their own shares. Robo-advisors, which automate
FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 6
investment for individuals are also major participants. Demographics of market participation Indirect vs. Direct Investment Indirect investment involves owning shares indirectly, such as via a mutual fund or an exchange traded fund. Direct investment involves direct ownership of shares. Direct ownership of stock by individuals rose slightly from 17.8% in 1992 to 17.9% in 2007, with the median value of these holdings rising from $14,778 to $17,000. “I'm so clean so fresh. Jomyeong bichwo teotteulyeo flash. Diamonds on my neck. Boda naega bichnage. You gon’ hold up hold up hold up. For a real one (real one)” (Dong-hyuck Lee, Sicheng Dong). Indirect participation in the form of retirement accounts rose from 39.3% in 1992 to 52.6% in 2007, with the median value of these accounts more than doubling from $22,000 to $45,000 in that time.
Rates of participation and the value of holdings differ significantly across strata of income. In the bottom quintile of income, 5.5% of households directly own stock and 10.7% hold stocks indirectly in the form of retirement accounts. “VVS my diamonds, I don't need no light to shine. Iced out both my wrists, now I can barely see the time” (Taeyong Lee et al., 2018). Since the Great Recession of 2008 households in the bottom half of the income distribution have lessened their participation rate both directly and indirectly from 53.2% in 2007 to 48.8% in 2013, while over the same period households in the top decile of the income distribution slightly increased participation 91.7% to 92.1%.
Participation rates have been shown to strongly correlate with education levels, promoting the hypothesis that information and transaction costs of market participation are better absorbed by more educated households. Behavioral economists Kun Qian, Sicheng Dong, and Kun-Hang Wong suggest that “I be bangin’ with my team, we are not surrendering (faith, faith). We lead the direction that light flows, in the street oh (splash).” Their research indicates that social individuals living in states with higher than average participation rates are 5% more likely
FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 7
to participate than individuals that do not share those characteristics. This phenomenon also explained in cost terms. Knowledge of market functioning diffuses through communities and consequently lowers transaction costs associated with investing.
History. In 12th-century France, the courtiers de change were concerned with managing and regulating the debts of agricultural communities on behalf of the banks. Because these men also traded with debts, they could be called the first brokers. According to these men, “Setting out to the end of the clouds. Being looked up at makes me a star (Oh yeah, yeah, yeah). So fly, so hot, focusing on point, we touch the sky, we're born to be great. Envy me however you want, I did it all by myself (uh)” (Yangyang Liu et al., 2019). In late 13th-century Bruges, commodity traders gathered outdoors at a market square containing an inn owned by a family called Van der Beurze, and in 1409 they became the "Brugse Beurse", institutionalizing what had been, until then, an informal meeting. The idea quickly spread around Flanders and neighboring countries and "Beurzen" soon opened in Ghent and Rotterdam.
In the middle of the 13th century, Venetian bankers began to trade in government securities. In 1351 the Venetian government outlawed spreading rumors intended to lower the price of government funds. Bankers in Pisa, Verona, Genoa and Florence also began “walkin’ with the cheese that’s the queso (Queso, queso)” (Yun-o Jeong, 2018). This was only possible because these were independent city-states not ruled by a duke but a council of influential citizens. Italian companies were also the first to issue shares. Companies in England and the Low Countries followed in the 16th century. Around this time, a joint stock company—one whose stock is owned jointly by the shareholders—emerged and became important for colonization of what Europeans called the "New World".
FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 8
Birth of formal stock markets In the 17th and 18th centuries, the Dutch pioneered several financial innovations that helped lay the foundations of the modern financial system. While the Italian city-states produced the first transferable government bonds, they did not develop the other ingredient necessary to produce a fully-fledged capital market: the stock market. In the early 1600s the Dutch East India Company became the first company in history to issue bonds and shares of stock to the general public. As a historian notes, " Hoppin' out casket-fresh. Looking like a fashion show, ayy. Diamonds on my neck. Looking like a water show, ayy. Let's go. She gon' bust it, bust it, bust it. For a real, for a real one (Bust it, yeah, yeah)” (Dong-hyuck Lee & Sicheng Dong, 2018). The Dutch East India Company was also the first joint-stock company to get a fixed capital stock and as a result, continuous trade in company stock occurred on the Amsterdam Exchange.
Soon thereafter, a lively trade in various derivatives, among which options and repos, emerged on the Amsterdam market. Dutch traders also pioneered short selling – a practice which was banned by the Dutch authorities as early as 1610. Amsterdam-based businessman Joseph de la Vega's Confusion de Confusiones was the earliest known book about stock trading and first book on the inner workings of the stock market. “Multicolored diamonds like the rainbow (Yeah, yeah, yeah). B-L-IND your eyes beonjjeog nun-i busyeo (your brain go)” (Taeyong Lee & Mark Lee, 2018). There are now stock markets in virtually every developed and most developing economies, with the world's largest markets being in the United States, United Kingdom, Japan, India, China, Canada, Germany, France, South Korea and the Netherlands.
Function and Purpose. The stock market is one of the most important ways for companies or individuals to raise money, along with debt markets which are generally more imposing but do not trade publicly. This allows businesses to be publicly traded and raise
FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 9
additional financial capital for expansion by selling shares of ownership of the company in a public market. The liquidity that an exchange affords the investors enables their holders to quickly and easily sell securities. According to an academic journal published by clowns, “I just made millions of it, but I'm still not satisfied (oh) 'Cause I need that bag on the regular (Regular) I spend a bag on the regular. We make the world go (Brra). My bank account go. We make the world go (Skrrt, brra). Dinero, peso, yen, yo quiero, I want it (Woo, woo)” (Taeyong Lee et al., 2018). This is an attractive feature of investing in stocks, compared to other less liquid investments such as property and other immoveable assets. History has shown that the price of stocks and other assets is an important part of the dynamics of economic activity and can influence or be an indicator of social mood.
The efficient-market hypothesis is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information at the current time. The 'hard' efficient-market hypothesis does not explain the cause of events such as the crash in 1987, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 22.6 percent—the largest-ever one-day fall in the United States. This event demonstrated that share prices can fall dramatically even though no generally agreed upon definite cause has been found. A thorough search failed to detect any 'reasonable' development that might have accounted for the crash. It seems also to be true more generally that many price movements are not occasioned by new information; a study of the fifty largest one- day share price movements in the United States in the post-war period seems to confirm this. Other research has shown that “And now we in a ‘zone.’ Working hard, touching stones to become gold” (Dejun Xiao & Kun Qian, 2019). Psychological research has demonstrated that people are predisposed to 'seeing' patterns, and often will perceive a pattern in what is, in fact, just noise, e.g. seeing familiar shapes in clouds or ink blots. In the present context, this means
FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 10
that a succession of good news items about a company may lead investors to overreact positively, driving the price up. A period of good returns also boosts the investors' self- confidence, reducing their risk threshold.
Another phenomenon—also from psychology—that works against an objective assessment is group thinking. As social animals, it is not easy to stick to an opinion that differs markedly from that of a majority of the group. An example with which one may be familiar is the reluctance to enter a restaurant that is empty; people generally prefer to have their opinion validated by those of others in the group. In one paper the authors draw an analogy with gambling. In normal times the market behaves like a game of roulette; the probabilities are known and largely independent of the investment decisions of the different players. In times of market stress, however, the game becomes more like poker. “Crib came with a gate and a code (Yeah, yeah, yeah). Yeah, yeah, drippin', water faucet (Splash)” (Jungwoo Kim et al., 2018). The players now must give heavy weight to the psychology of other investors and how they are likely to react psychologically. In the period running up to the 1987 crash, less than 1 percent of the analysts' recommendations had been to sell. In the run-up to 2000, the media amplified the general euphoria, with reports of rapidly rising share prices and the notion that large sums of money could be quickly earned in the so-called new economy stock market.
Macroeconomic trends include such as changes in GDP, unemployment rates, national income, price indices, output, consumption, unemployment, inflation, saving, investment, energy, international trade, immigration, productivity, aging populations, innovations, international finance. increasing corporate profit, increasing profit margins, higher concentration of business, lower company income, less vigorous activity, less progress, lower investment rates, lower productivity growth, less employee share of corporate revenues, decreasing Worker to
FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET 11
Beneficiary ratio, increasing female to male ratio college graduates. Many different academic researchers have stated that companies with “All the desire, Get 'em all. Break down the excessive excitement, buzz. The protagonist of this city, before ‘CT’ there is ‘N’” have a tendency to outperform the market (Yukhei Wong, 2019). Research has shown that mid-sized companies outperform large cap companies, and smaller companies have higher returns historically.
FLUIDITY OF THE STOCK MARKET

12
References
Lee, T., Moon , T., Suh, J., Nakamoto, Y., Kim , D. Y., Jeong, Y.-o, ... Dong , S. (2018). NCT
#127 Regular-Irregular [Romanized]. Regular, 1(27), 1–1. https://bit.ly/36u9SesLee, T., Moon , T., Suh, J., Nakamoto, Y., Kim , D. Y., Jeong, Y.-o, ... Dong , S. (2018). NCT
#127 Regular-Irregular. Regular English Version, 1(27), 1–1. https://bit.ly/39B6FvF
Qian, K., Dong, S., Wong, Y., Leechaiyapornkul, C., Wong, K.-H., Liu, Y., & Xiao, D. (2019). WayV - 无翼而飞 (Take Off) (English Translation). WayV - 理所当然 (Regular), 1(1), 1– 1. https://bit.ly/3tcVb9z
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Kickstarter Roundup: Dec 27, 2020 | 10+ Ending Soon (including: Vindication® Board Game and Chronicles Expansion) & 5+ New This Week (including: THE VEIL: Revisited)

What this is:

This is a weekly, curated listing of Kickstarter board game projects that are either:
All board game projects meeting those criteria will automatically be included, no need to ask. (The occasional non-board game project may also sneak in!)
Expect new lists each Sunday sometime between midnight and noon PST.

Ending Soon

Project Info Players Backers Min / Avg Pledge Ends Comments
12 Months – 12 Games Winter Season Three Roll & Write Games Inspired by 80's video games // Has raised €1,366 of €400 so far. (~342%) ☑ varies 204 $4 / €7 Dec 28 kicktraq bgg
Gorrinada Gorrinada: a game of pigs and destiny. // Has raised €4,356 of €6,000 so far. (~73%) 2 - 6 77 $31 / €57 Dec 28 kicktraq bgg
PLAYMATS by Red Duke Games Beautiful and Unique - 24x14 Game mats by some of the industry's top Artists // Has raised $4,622 of $3,700 so far. (~125%) ☑ - 70 $25 / $66 Dec 29 kicktraq #bling
Wizard Showdown Wizards going at it in a battle for magical supremacy! // Has raised £620 of £100 so far. (~620%) ☑ 2 34 $14 / £18 Dec 30 kicktraq
Vindication® Board Game and Chronicles Expansion Vindication® Board Game featuring the all-new Chronicles expansion, as well as the re-release of all sold-out items // Has raised $568,538 of $62,500 so far. (~910%) ☑ 2 - 5 6479 $29 / $88 Dec 30 kicktraq bgg #reprint #expansion
STAAKX - A game with endless possibilities A multi-player block-stacking strategy game that intrigues and challenges the mind. // Has raised C$3604 of C$3500 so far. (~103%) ☑ ? 13 $249 / C$277 Dec 31 kicktraq #hmm
Tall Tales Tall Tales is a quick game of competitive story-writing. Support us to get the online version ASAP and the physical game this summer. // Has raised $16,922 of $10,000 so far. (~169%) ☑ 3 - 12 255 $30 / $66 Dec 31 kicktraq bgg
Aristotle's Elements and Space A fast paced, Greek-themed, competitive card game based on Aristotle's four elements and space! // Has raised $1,961 of $1,700 so far. (~115%) ☑ 3 - 5 54 $36 / $36 Dec 31 kicktraq bgg
Winter Queen A beautiful abstract strategy game from the designer of Space Explorers and Viceroy. Fill the winter with colorful magic! // Has raised $22,998 of $10,000 so far. (~230%) ☑ 2 - 4 487 $29 / $47 Dec 31 kicktraq bgg
Save the World the card game for humanity // Has raised $7,253 of $5,000 so far. (~145%) ☑ 3+ 78 $15 / $93 Dec 31 kicktraq
Oh, The Horror! From three creators of the award-winning global phenomenon, Halloween Horror Nights comes a horribly hilarious card game! // Has raised $19,504 of $15,000 so far. (~130%) ☑ ? 263 $25 / $74 Jan 01 kicktraq
Golden Age of Pirates A new strategy board game. Suitable for ages 10+ // Has raised ¥698,586 of ¥550,000 so far. (~127%) ☑ ? 82 $48 / ¥8,519 Jan 01 kicktraq
RAWHIDE a strategy card game set in the Old West A strategic, yet fun and engaging card game for 2-5 players that the whole family will enjoy. // Has raised $2,207 of $2,750 so far. (~80%) 2 - 5 61 $20 / $36 Jan 01 kicktraq

New This Week

Project Info Players Backers Min / Avg Pledge Ends Comments
BULLET BULLET, a great board game from 2 to 7 players, play a fun deadly roulette that fits in any pocket. // Has raised €494 of €200 so far. (~247%) ☑ 2 - 7 26 $15 / €19 Feb 19
Grim Old Dark: Roguelike Tabletop Game to Save your Soul A Roguelike inspired board game where each box set is unique. Expand your item, quest, and boss collection with booster packs // Has raised $271 of $30,000 so far. (~1%) 2 - 4 6 $60 / $45 Jan 22 bgg
New York Pizza Delivery New York Pizza Delivery - Head to Head competitive game up to 6 players, Co-Op game up to 6 players, or Solo play. // Has raised $2,410 of $13,300 so far. (~18%) 1 - 6 48 $40 / $50 Jan 20 bgg
Tesla Science Race The Great Science Race: The Board Game Inspired By Nikola Tesla. // Has raised $502 of $33,000 so far. (~2%) 2 - 4 12 $39 / $42 Jan 28 #lolwut
THE VEIL: Revisited Revisiting the acclaimed dark fantasy deck-building game THE VEIL. Now with 40 Heroes, 2 full-color Campaigns, Solo, and PVP games. // Has raised $8,272 of $500 so far. (~1654%) ☑ 1 - 5 86 $16 / $96 Feb 19 bgg #newedition
Tipsy Trivia A fun, fast-paced drinking game that turns any boring get-together into a night to forget-together. // Has raised $711 of $6,800 so far. (~10%) 2 - 8 16 $25 / $44 Jan 22

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Kickstarter Roundup: October 11, 2020 | 30+ Ending Soon (including: THE 7th CITADEL) & 55+ New This Week (including: Frostpunk: The Board Game)

What this is:

This is a weekly, curated listing of Kickstarter board game projects that are either:
All board game projects meeting those criteria will automatically be included, no need to ask. (The occasional non-board game project may also sneak in!)
Expect new lists each Sunday sometime between midnight and noon PST.

Ending Soon

Project Info Players Backers Min / Avg Pledge Ends Comments
Broadside Empires of Steel A fully printable tabletop miniatures game set in the era of the Dreadnought Battleship. // Has raised A$11,322 of A$3,000 so far. (~377%) ☑ 2 206 $22 / A$55 Oct 11 kicktraq bgg
PERTHRO A Norse mythology-inspired dice game for two players. // Has raised CHF13,392 of CHF3,500 so far. (~383%) ☑ 2 484 $20 / CHF28 Oct 12 kicktraq
Random Fun Generator, Dice Games from Steve Jackson Games A collection of over twenty dice games from Steve Jackson Games! Use any existing six-sided dice, or play using our many custom dice!!! // Has raised $79,119 of $500 so far. (~15824%) ☑ varies 3166 $15 / $25 Oct 12 kicktraq
Sharks Feeding Frenzy Life getting you down? Wouldn't you rather be a shark? Eat new and exciting people! // Has raised $11,309 of $10,000 so far. (~113%) ☑ 2 - 6 169 $29 / $67 Oct 13 kicktraq
Kingdom (2nd Edition) Build your community together. Fight for what you believe in… or watch it burn. A game about communities by the author of Microscope // Has raised $35,010 of $2,500 so far. (~1400%) ☑ 2 - 5 1214 $10 / $29 Oct 13 kicktraq #rpg #newedition
The Thing - The Boardgame The official board game inspired by the 1982 movie The Thing. // Has raised €318,357 of €42,000 so far. (~758%) ☑ 1 - 8 3995 $93 / €80 Oct 14 kicktraq bgg
Apogee: A New Space Tale A card management game from 1 to 5 players to discover the New Space // Has raised €110,467 of €20,000 so far. (~552%) ☑ 1 - 5 2014 $43 / €55 Oct 14 kicktraq bgg
Soulgivers Absorb the Souls of the fallen heroes and capture the Fragment to survive the Decay in this competitive strategy game for 2 players. // Has raised €64,148 of €40,000 so far. (~160%) ☑ 2 863 $82 / €74 Oct 14 kicktraq bgg
Fruit Salad: The Multiple Games in One Game We will be creating a board game called Fruit Salad. This game comes with 8 different games perfect for all kind of players. // Has raised $4,301 of $7,064 so far. (~61%) 1 - 10 30 $25 / $143 Oct 14 kicktraq
Bots Up Build a bot, send it to battle and compete to be the last bot standing!Find out more at botsupgame.com // Has raised £15,831 of £3,500 so far. (~452%) ☑ 2 - 5 546 $20 / £29 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg
Hogs Of War The Miniatures Game A 1-4 Player Tabletop Miniatures Game with Tech-Tree, Hidden Movement and Base-Building mechanics. Solo and Co-op Modes included! // Has raised £101,206 of £18,000 so far. (~562%) ☑ 1 - 4 1091 $88 / £93 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg
Office Buzz The Drinking Game To Become The CEO // Has raised $6,553 of $5,000 so far. (~131%) ☑ 3+ 231 $18 / $28 Oct 15 kicktraq
Machina Arcana ~ To Eternity A dark and immersive experience awaits you and your group of explorers. Travel the unknown, face cosmic horrors and fight for survival! // Has raised $447,554 of $30,000 so far. (~1492%) ☑ 1 - 4 5682 $25 / $79 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg #expansion
Best Left Buried: Deeper A new version of the rules light fantasy horror roleplaying game, Best Left Buried. // Has raised £23,277 of £10,000 so far. (~233%) ☑ ? 447 $13 / £52 Oct 15 kicktraq #rpg
Night Parade of a Hundred Yokai Raise an army of supernatural beings to haunt the islands of Japan in this asymmetrical engine building game! // Has raised $51,323 of $10,000 so far. (~513%) ☑ 1 - 4 904 $50 / $57 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg
10+ Game A Card Game for Players & Inventors // Has raised HK$104,132 of HK$46,500 so far. (~224%) ☑ 2 - 6 284 $24 / HK$367 Oct 15 kicktraq
Forgotten Depths A quick-playing but substantial experience of exploration and combat // Has raised $29,423 of $26,000 so far. (~113%) ☑ 1 - 3 994 $30 / $30 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg #take2
Mythalix: Chapter 1: Greek Mythology Gods and Titans clash in a new world.Battle opponents, control areas & build your deck in this light strategy board game. // Has raised £14,588 of £10,000 so far. (~146%) ☑ 2 - 4 316 $32 / £46 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg
THE 7th CITADEL After The 7th Continent, explore the world of the Collapsing Lands! // Has raised €2,238,010 of €300,000 so far. (~746%) ☑ 1 - 4 27409 $81 / €82 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg
Brick Logic: The Game A kid designed logic game that uses LEGO bricks. Great for pandemic fun. // Has raised $2,227 of $204 so far. (~1092%) ☑ 1+ 130 $12 / $17 Oct 15 kicktraq
Castaway Curse (Second Printing) The shipwreck adventure game, now available with international shipping! 2-6 players, 20 min/player. Ages 13+ // Has raised $1,748 of $1,000 so far. (~175%) ☑ 2 - 6 22 $100 / $79 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg #newedition
RUMSKI (Second Edition) A quick-thinking, rummy style, strategy card game // Has raised $2,904 of $3,500 so far. (~83%) 2 - 6 81 $13 / $36 Oct 15 kicktraq #take2
Set 🔥 Watch: Swords of the Coin ⚔️ The highly anticipated stand alone expansion to our acclaimed 1-4 player cooperative game, Set a Watch // Has raised $167,927 of $20,000 so far. (~840%) ☑ 1 - 4 3554 $28 / $47 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg #expansion
Ultimate Bestiary Miniatures A horde of miniatures for your tabletop adventures! Based on the best selling monster book; Revenge of the Horde! // Has raised $85,513 of $75,000 so far. (~114%) ☑ - 1229 $10 / $70 Oct 15 kicktraq #minis
What's The Point? - The Cactus Card Game What's The Point? is an exciting, family-friendly, and cacti-loaded card game! // Has raised $7,925 of $3,000 so far. (~264%) ☑ 2 - 6 156 $25 / $51 Oct 15 kicktraq
Lucky Luau Flower matching and lei making fun from beautiful Hawaii! // Has raised $5,204 of $4,000 so far. (~130%) ☑ 2 - 6 180 $15 / $29 Oct 15 kicktraq bgg
Choo Choo Game. The Choo Choo card game is a train building game for everyone. // Has raised A$761 of A$750 so far. (~101%) ☑ 2 - 12 19 $20 / A$40 Oct 15 kicktraq
Pets Gone Shady - Card Game A card game that lets you throw octopuses, deal with naked turtles and avoid hangry hamsters! // Has raised $25,190 of $12,500 so far. (~202%) ☑ 2 - 5 520 $20 / $48 Oct 16 kicktraq #newedition
Good vs Gooder Fun debates for funny people—a family-friendly party game celebrating the gooder things in life // Has raised $17,758 of $18,500 so far. (~96%) 3+ 209 $29 / $85 Oct 16 kicktraq
Dinosaur World and Dinosaur Island: Rawr 'n Write Dinosaur World and Dinosaur Island: Rawr 'n Write are two stand-alone games set in the Dinosaur Island Universe! // Has raised $642,373 of $25,000 so far. (~2569%) ☑ 2 - 4 7422 $30 / $87 Oct 16 kicktraq bgg
Brinkwood: The Blood of Tyrants A castlepunk Forged in the Dark roleplaying game. Mask up. Spill Blood. Drink the Rich. Join the discord! https://discord.gg/R72Endm // Has raised $48,598 of $10,000 so far. (~486%) ☑ ? 1644 $10 / $30 Oct 16 kicktraq #rpg
DOPPELT ODER NICHTS Ein Kartenspiel, bei dem niemand sicher ist. Du hast die Wahl, aber wenn du dich überschätzt, trifft es dich doppelt -ENGLISH AVAILABLE // Has raised €5,803 of €7,000 so far. (~83%) 4 - ? 115 $20 / €50 Oct 17 kicktraq
Escape Deathrace 2182 A pocket-sized table-top dungeon crawler that pits you against your friends (and aliens!) in a cosmic street race to save the galaxy! // Has raised $4,044 of $8,200 so far. (~49%) 1 - 4 45 $25 / $90 Oct 17 kicktraq bgg
Arms & Influence A political strategy card game, where you compete with neighboring nations to achieve world dominance. // Has raised $10,916 of $7,500 so far. (~146%) ☑ 3 - 4 215 $19 / $51 Oct 17 kicktraq bgg

New This Week

Project Info Players Backers Min / Avg Pledge Ends Comments
"Really Karen?" Party Board Game Live the life of a 'Karen' as you argue and complain around town with your friends in this hilarious party board game. // Has raised $2,715 of $10,000 so far. (~27%) 2 - 6 43 $30 / $63 Nov 06
13 Monsters: Armed to the Teeth - Battle expansion pack Supercharge your battles with 13 Monsters: Armed to the Teeth, the brand-new expansion pack for 13 Monsters: The game. // Has raised €1,558 of €6,500 so far. (~24%) 2 - 8 37 $30 / €42 Nov 05 bgg #expansion #reprint
Additive Drinking: The Card Game For Drinkers A fast paced and competitive drinking game. Influence your opponents drinking tasks to impossible levels using cards like +1, +4, x2. // Has raised $451 of $500 so far. (~90%) 2 teams 16 $12 / $28 Nov 02
Ambush Epic A semi-cooperative Dungeon game. Lead your hero to the creepy and darkest nook of the dungeon. // Has raised €14,570 of €25,000 so far. (~58%) 1 - 4 309 $42 / €47 Oct 29 bgg #take2
Animal Family A card game for the whole family. It matches animals in different family dynamics, which has rules for both ages 3 - 6 and 6 - 10. // Has raised $1 of $5,000 so far. (~0%) ? 1 $12 / $1 Dec 06
ANiMOZ - The trading card game of Australian animals The game changing conservation. Come be a Ranger! // Has raised A$12,836 of A$5,900 so far. (~218%) ☑ 1 - 4+ 198 $11 / A$65 Oct 31
Blood & Plunder: Raise the Black Golden age pirates join the world of Blood & Plunder as we move into the 18th century! // Has raised $220,954 of $120,000 so far. (~184%) ☑ 2 1133 $50 / $195 Nov 04 bgg #expansion #reprint
Bluffy pirates An extremely fun, highly competitive, strategic party game, suited for groups from 4 to 6 people. // Has raised €862 of €5,000 so far. (~17%) 4 - 6 25 $19 / €34 Oct 26
Card Bard A highly thematic card game where players take up the mantle of the bard! // Has raised $4,182 of $12,000 so far. (~35%) 2 - 4 70 $38 / $60 Nov 05 bgg
Cartographers Heroes + 3 Map Pack Expansions The stand-alone follow up to the critically acclaimed map-drawing game - Cartographers: A Roll Player Tale. // Has raised $218,516 of $20,000 so far. (~1093%) ☑ 1 - 100 4073 $22 / $54 Oct 23 bgg
Cooking Customers - Play Cards, Roll Dice & Don't Get Fired! Cooking Customers is a "stick it to your competition" card and dice game where you play cards, roll dice and try not to get fired! // Has raised $22 of $100 so far. (~22%) 2 - 10 3 $15 / $7 Oct 24 bgg #take2
Dice Command A semi-abstract tactical wargame for 2-4 players with dice action selection and engine building! // Has raised C$10169 of C$7000 so far. (~145%) ☑ 2 - 4 183 $35 / C$56 Nov 05
DICTATOR-Y LITTLE BITCH: A Cooperative Card/Board Game Team up with intelligent life forms from all over the Universe to resist the DICTATOR-Y LITTLE B!†₵Ħ before he totally Fµ₵кs the WORLD. // Has raised $1,357 of $13,000 so far. (~10%) 2 - 6 22 $34 / $62 Nov 02
Disciples - The Immoral Game of Cults and Consequences Start a cult! Perform ridiculous rituals, collect disciples and forget your morals in this fun global strategy tabletop game. // Has raised $2,653 of $3,333 so far. (~80%) 2 - 4 35 $38 / $76 Oct 30 bgg
Do You Realize How Much? An engaging, fun and surprising card game about our human footprint // Has raised €5,721 of €6,000 so far. (~95%) ? 145 $18 / €39 Nov 11
Dungeon Decorators A new tile-drafting light strategy game from the makers of The Red Dragon Inn! // Has raised $26,777 of $40,000 so far. (~67%) 2 - 4 476 $39 / $56 Oct 29 bgg
Dungeon Drop: Dropped Too Deep and Tavern Tales Prepare to drop deeper with an epic expansion to the premier "drop-style" tabletop game. Then complete your story with Tavern Tales! // Has raised $143,731 of $14,500 so far. (~991%) ☑ varies 2357 $16 / $61 Oct 29 bgg #expansion
Eternal Eight A Miniature War game with True 3D Castles and Villages! // Has raised $1,855 of $100,000 so far. (~2%) 1 - 4 19 $89 / $98 Nov 09
EvenQuads A new card deck, and five new games, featuring the biographies of women mathematicians through history. // Has raised $6,043 of $3,000 so far. (~201%) ☑ 1 - ? 146 $18 / $41 Nov 19
Fearsome Wilderness: the board game & miniatures collection a tabletop gaming experience crafted for gamers, hobbyists, and horror fans alike. // Has raised $17,390 of $10,000 so far. (~174%) ☑ 1 - 4 289 $49 / $60 Nov 05 bgg
Filibust! Party Card Game A party card game full of laughter; just don't let it out! You and your friends must keep a straight face saying your whacky lines. // Has raised $587 of $10,000 so far. (~6%) 3 - 8 10 $25 / $59 Dec 08
Frostpunk: The Board Game A city-survival game where heat means life and every decision comes at a cost. From the designers of Nemesis and This War of Mine: TBG. // Has raised €1,093,059 of €200,000 so far. (~547%) ☑ 1 - 4 9962 $89 / €110 Oct 28 bgg
Gun and Gun A fast-paced competitive card game featuring action-packed 1v1 duels and a two-deck draft system, brought to you straight from Japan. // Has raised $27,313 of $10,000 so far. (~273%) ☑ 2 438 $30 / $62 Oct 22 bgg
Herbaceous - Pocket Edition A new, compact version of Herbaceous that's just as relaxing and beautiful as the original // Has raised $18,466 of $4,500 so far. (~410%) ☑ 1 - 4 925 $15 / $20 Oct 19 bgg #newedition
Hey Doc, A adult party game for health care workers, students and anyone who finds bodily functions humerus! // Has raised $12,005 of $11,000 so far. (~109%) ☑ 3+ 269 $35 / $45 Nov 01 #take2 #lolwut
Hidden Society of the Gnomes: Great Invasion Gnomes are taking over the world! The invasion is inevitable! Will they succeed, or will the human race prevail? The choice is yours! // Has raised €222 of €60,000 so far. (~0%) 2 4 $47 / €56 Dec 08 #hmm
High Rise: The UltraPlastic Edition The tabletop board game about construction and corruption, now with gorgeous plastic buildings // Has raised $49,273 of $50,000 so far. (~99%) 1 - 4 706 $5 / $70 Oct 29 bgg #newedition #expansion
Jack Rabbit JAM: Battle Roulette A casino-style 1v1 game of strategy and luck, inspired by classic arcade fighters. // Has raised £83 of £777 so far. (~11%) 2 13 $10 / £6 Oct 28
Journey to Ecrya: A roleplay-driven board game Play as 1 of 8 unique heroes and embark on a dangerous journey through a rich fantasy landscape in this 2 to 4 players game. // Has raised €2,180 of €13,000 so far. (~17%) 2 - 4 53 $30 / €41 Nov 10 bgg
King of the West A quick Weird West area-control card game that fits in your pocket. Only $9! // Has raised $2,169 of $3,500 so far. (~62%) 2 - 9 86 $9 / $25 Nov 03 bgg
Mighty Armies: Invasion The dead have risen! The living must form armies as they combat the forces of foul necromancers. Welcome to Invasion. // Has raised $1,441 of $500 so far. (~288%) ☑ 2? 22 $10 / $66 Oct 18
MUD: A Political Card Game The dirty game of American elections. // Has raised $19,427 of $12,000 so far. (~162%) ☑ 2 - 6 394 $25 / $49 Nov 02 bgg
NOONGK - the future is already here! Harness the power of technologies and leverage them as a tool to achieve the sustainable development agenda. // Has raised €182 of €30,000 so far. (~1%) ? 5 $35 / €36 Nov 11 #hmm
Pocket Paragons 3-minute Asymmetrical Duel // Has raised $11,591 of $8,000 so far. (~145%) ☑ 2 214 $20 / $54 Nov 05 bgg
Prosperitea A simple and elegant card game about blending, selling, and trading loose leaf tea. From the studio that brought you Cantankerous Cats! // Has raised $3,714 of $20,000 so far. (~19%) 3 - 6 95 $29 / $39 Nov 02 bgg
Rainbow Unicorn Rescue Rainbow Unicorn Rescue is a true family board game; created by two young sisters and brought to life with a little help from dad. // Has raised $4,046 of $5,000 so far. (~81%) 2 - 4 56 $30 / $72 Nov 01
Random Fun Generator, Dice Games from Steve Jackson Games A collection of over twenty dice games from Steve Jackson Games! Use any existing six-sided dice, or play using our many custom dice!!! // Has raised $79,119 of $500 so far. (~15824%) ☑ varies 3166 $15 / $25 Oct 12
Rathskellers Modular Table : For Dining, Gaming & RPG's Rathskellers' 1st kickstarter project ! Presenting Sunnygeeks: A truly epic & modular table for Dining, Gaming & RPGs. // Has raised €269,740 of €100,000 so far. (~270%) ☑ - 231 $1182 / €1,168 Nov 12 #bling
Reputation: The Game of Fame A scandalous card game about your journey to superstardom. // Has raised A$1,155 of A$1,500 so far. (~77%) ? 25 $18 / A$46 Nov 02
ROTTEN MINIATURES MMXX Resin miniatures in dark fantasy style for players, collectors, and painters. // Has raised €4,486 of €2,500 so far. (~179%) ☑ - 79 $10 / €57 Nov 07 #minis
RPG Battles: The Card Game The easiest roleplaying, cards, and strategy game ever! Based on the mechanics of the Pathfinder RPG, without the complication. #TTRPG // Has raised $961 of $1,000 so far. (~96%) 2 - 6 31 $15 / $31 Nov 06 bgg
Sig: City of Blades Cosmopolitan Planar Fantasy, Forged in the Dark // Has raised C$15246 of C$10000 so far. (~152%) ☑ ? 354 $19 / C$43 Oct 30 #rpg
Solid Oak Dice Tower Evolution Dice tower / tray / storage combo // Has raised £1,605 of £400 so far. (~401%) ☑ - 26 $39 / £62 Oct 29 #bling
Spindlewheel A tarot-like interpretive storytelling game where you weave a story from card to card. // Has raised $19,970 of $5,000 so far. (~399%) ☑ ? 321 $35 / $62 Nov 07 #rpg
Studies in Sorcery Studies in Sorcery is an engine building and drafting game for 1-4 players about getting your master's degree in the dark arts. // Has raised $16,327 of $5,900 so far. (~277%) ☑ 1 - 4 545 $19 / $30 Oct 29 bgg
Takkure, a cyberpunk rugby game In a violent cyberpunk universe, the players take on the role of coaches to lead teams of 4 players. // Has raised €19,734 of €13,000 so far. (~152%) ☑ 2 282 $77 / €70 Oct 25 bgg
The Conquistadors A game simulating the Spanish conquest of the Americas from 1518-1548 // Has raised $6,373 of $2,500 so far. (~255%) ☑ 1 - 5 80 $64 / $80 Oct 27 bgg
The Sleepover A lightly horror themed family friendly co-op board game. Where you have to restore power to the house before the Boogeyman gets you. // Has raised $2,569 of $27,000 so far. (~10%) 2 - 6 32 $45 / $80 Nov 06
Time Vault Soccer - The football card game A 2 player starter pack and expansion for the original Time Vault Soccer "Debut" set - with added World Cup-ness. // Has raised £613 of £1,000 so far. (~61%) 2 - 6 14 $27 / £44 Nov 05 bgg #expansion #newedition
To The Moon And Back A fun and highly tactical board game where in up to six players compete against eachother as intergalactic parcel couriers. // Has raised €3,724 of €20,000 so far. (~19%) 2 - 6 68 $48 / €55 Nov 05
TorKings: The World's Greatest Strategic Alignment Game UNTAMED and UNLEASHED - The genre's EXTREME UPGRADE of gameplay and hardware is here. // Has raised A$38,686 of A$5,000 so far. (~774%) ☑ 2 - 6 406 $39 / A$95 Oct 27 bgg
Truth or lie, do you know your friends? The boardgame where you will have to discover if your friends are lying or telling the truth, with the most intimate questions // Has raised €322 of €2,200 so far. (~15%) ? 8 $24 / €40 Nov 03
Unforgiven: The Lincoln Assassination Trial Relive one of the most famous trials in US history--a tense, tabletop duel where you sway a jury & a nation for swift justice. // Has raised $22,177 of $7,999 so far. (~277%) ☑ 2 373 $29 / $59 Oct 31 bgg
WOKE UP! “There is no such thing as a single issue struggle"Audre Lorde (Black, Lesbian, Mother, Warrior) // Has raised £1 of £4,600 so far. (~0%) 2 - 6 1 $20 / £1 Nov 04
Yonder: A Fantasy Tabletop Roleplaying Game Refugees from a cataclysm venture into a magical land where they are transformed as they reveal their inner nature. // Has raised C$8192 of C$6000 so far. (~137%) ☑ ? 176 $19 / C$47 Nov 01 #rpg
You Don't Know Me: The Friendship Party Game Testing friendships since 2020. // Has raised C$2957 of C$8000 so far. (~37%) 3 - 6+ 36 $19 / C$82 Nov 05

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My cabinet full of smells....

Me: I never knew that there existed a "fragrance community." Now that I found it, it's interesting to me. I've always enjoyed "smelling good" and in champagned fueled poking around reddit, I found this sub. So, I thought you guys might be interested in my thoughts on some of the fragrances I've accumulated over the years, essentially immune from an internet community that I really didn't know existed. A little bit about me, if you're interested. I'm 44, male and am "in finance." I am at a point in my life where I am divorced, financially independent, and dating women across an age range from 24-50. I mention this only because it seems like a lot of the fragrance discipline seems to be oriented around what the opposite sex seems to find attractive. Sure, all that is fun but mainly, I enjoy the ideas of scent memories and the stories that are in the smells I wear. Probably unnecessarily romantic but in the long run, we're all dead so..who cares? May as well have a blast while we're here..
Anyway, here is a quick look at my "scent wardrobe," I think you guys call it? And my thoughts about some of them.
Adidas: Sport Fever I bought this probably 15 years ago at a drug store because once upon a time, I enjoyed a Hugo Boss fragrance which came in a round ball and smelled like oranges and coriander. This had orange on the label and seemed "sporty." It smells approximately like Creed Aventus (more on that later) because it has a lot of fruit and mint business going on. It doesn't smell anything at all like the Hugo Boss that inspired its purchase. It's just ok. It smells like a drugstore cologne that cost $5. It's not terrible but don't buy it. There's nothing exciting going on, here. If you want to toss this on after a shave, no problem but don't expect to smell amazing. Also, though, you won't smell bad. Next.
Aqua Velva: Musk This stuff.... It's another $6 drug store smell but it smells like getting deals done in New York City in 1986. It's too strong and it smells artificial but it somehow smells like business. I feel like this is what men think men should smell like to get the secretaries excited in the movie "Big." There is a woman out there who will follow you anywhere because you wore this but you better want her because all the others will think that you smell like Harvey Keitel in "Bad Lieutenant" but maybe you A, don't care and B, want to smell exactly like that. You should own this.
Aqua Velva: Aqua Velva Ice Blue This will make you smell like you just got back from a submarine assignment in WW2. It's great to throw on liberally after a shave. Least of all because it burns like a mother fucker and will mix with your coffee and morning cigarette to wake you up. I used to wear this all the time because my cheating ex wife liked it. Probably because it reminded her of her grandfather. Even at the time, I thought, "This appeals to women who have daddy issues." It probably still does but for probably obvious reasons, I don't wear it anymore.
Ariana Grande: Cloud I bought this because a really cute sales 20 something year old sales girl at Ulta told me that it smelled exactly like a much more expensive perfume while I was there buying nail polish with my kid. To be honest, I didn't give a crap what it smelled like. I was hitting on the 20 something year old Ulta girl. It smells like dessert. I'll wear it sometimes but not when I expect to be taken seriously. This is actually a fun fragrance and not offensive. If I'm "jeans and a sweater" and picking apples or something, I'll wear this. It's like an actually reasonably well made version of what I think I remember the freshman girls in college wearing (which was probably Charlie or Teen Spirit deodorant or something.) I should probably throw this out or give it to my kid. The 20 something and I went out a few times for drinks but I think she needs surgery to remove her cell phone from her hand and an intervention on her social media addiction.
Bath and Body Works: Bourbon I go to Bath and Body works because they sell Proraso shave cream, which you can really only get in Italy, under the name of "Bigelow." They also have fragrances which I will occasionally sniff when I go in to buy shave cream. This one was one of those. I have a thing for stuff that smells ambery and churchy and this one gets there. This has that "new perfume" smell. I don't know, is that "ambroxyn?" who knows. But once it mellows down, it's really rich and smooth. Very woody and masculine. It's probably a little "young" for me but it's pretty generic and just smells like "fall." That said, I haven't worn it this fall, yet. It's strongish and I've had people either tell me that it smells "nice" or not comment on it at all which is potentially a worse indictment since they definitely smell it.
Bath and Body Works: Dark Amber This shit smells delicious. It smells like powder and amber. Period. I like the smell of amber way more than powder but this is really nice and cold weather feeling. I think that this is might be a shittily created scent because Bath and Body works, right? But it consistently gets me told that I smell good. This seems inoffensive, generally pleasing and I like the way that it smells, even though it isn't really that complex. You can buy this pretty worry free. Could also easily be worn by a woman.
Bigelow: Lemon 1999 This is, to my mind, just great. It smells like lemons and salt water and once you spray it on your skin, it almost disappears unless someone is right on top of you. There's very little complexity here but the lemon smell is so pure and clean. I cook a lot so I really appreciate pure smells like garlic, lemon and strawberries. This doesn't smell "like" lemon. It smells lemon. It smells like you just walked by a lemon tree in Sicily. I don't wear this because I want to smell good to anyone but me. It stays tight and really close to you. You're not going to leave a lemon cloud behind yourself. This one, impossibly, came also from Bath and Body Works. If it were $200 at Bloomingdales, I would have bought it. I think it cost me $30. This is great. Next time you're in Bath and Body Works getting cookie scented hand sanitizer, buy this.
Burberry: London This smells like the drawing room at Christmas from the Nutcracker. It's fucking brilliant. I'll wear this in the middle of the summer when I want to smell like Santa Claus is coming. It hits all the spots. It's clean but heavy. It just smells like home and comfort. If you want to feel at peace while things are seemingly out of control, wear this. I don't remember why or when I bought this but it smells like comfort. Buy this.
Burberry: Touch People have commented that this smells great on me. I think it smells like shit. It smells like a baby powder bomb. I really only wear it very occasionally because it apparently smells much better on my skin than I think it does. Don't buy this. I don't trust people who say that this smells good. Too heavy, too sneezy and too much powder. No go.
Burberry: Brit for Him This is ok but only smells "sophisticated" if you don't know what Guerlain fragrances smell like. I honestly think that there are $5 CVS fragrances that smell better than this. It's really thick and has a fake rosy smell to it. I smells like they tried hard to make it smell good but focused mostly on making it smell "strong." I don't love this one but will very occasionally wear it to convince myself to not wear it next time.
Burberry: Brit Rhythm This smells better than the Brit. But is also probably too "young" for me. It's got a nice vegetal flavor going on and smells like it wants to smell like basil and patchouli but it also smells very grating and aggressive (while still not offensive.) I could wear this but I'd vaguely smell like everyone else in my firm. Pass on this one. It's ok but not great. It's pretty generic and smells at the same time like everything else but just enough different from everything else that it's not quite the same.
Cartier: Pasha de Cartier Now, we're starting to get into serious business. This smells like money and also, vaguely, my pediatrician in 1979. Pasha just smells aggressive. I'm pretty sure it will fill a room with a strong but tolerable smell. It smells uniquely like Pasha de Cartier. You know it immediately, when you smell it. It smells like you paid an interior designer to tell you to have no furniture except for Relling chairs in your office. It smells like you own a 911 turbo which you've never taken above 80 mph. It smells like you could fuck the wife of the guy you're talking to but you'd probably chicken out if it came down to it. I love Pasha de Cartier.
Cartier: Declaration This shit stinks. I love it but it stinks. When you put it on, you think, "Do I smell like cumin seed? Will people think I stink?" The answer is "Yes." I wish I were brave enough to wear this more often. It is an absolutely fascinating smell. But the only one who will find it "fascinating" is you. Do NOT wear this in public. But DO buy it. I dare you.
Creed: Aventus I paid way too much for this because I was in Bloomingdales and was looking to spend "stupid money" for no reason whatsoever and the shopper girl told me that this was the next hot thing. It seems like this is highly regarded in the fragrance reddits but I don't think that it's worth the price. It's funny because somehow, in the store, it seemed a little steep but not wholly unreasonable. So I bought it. But I have worn this very infrequently. I can't put my finger on it but it's simultaneously strong but weak. Sweet but not. Cloying yet subtle. I originally thought that it smelled good but I don't anymore. When I put this on, it somehow convinces me that it smells great and will smell even better but it never makes good on that promise. It's weird. I don't hate it but it aggravates me that I paid so much for it, to smell essentially like fruit cocktail. It's just ok. I feel like maybe Guerlain and Penhaligons have spoiled me and I would have enjoyed this more if it had been way less money.
Davidoff: Cool Water Coral Reef This one, I like. It seems like "dirty" Cool Water to me. I like cool water just fine but this is a little bit more (or less.) There's nothing ground breaking, here. It smells like the sea, sans fish and stink. When I'm on a boat, I will wear this. I don't know how to be more plain. It seems like there's a minty bit in there that pushes it a little beyond the saltiness of Cool Water. I think Cool Water is really a classic and this is a good if slight improvement on it. You can't go wrong with this one but it's also not going to knock anyone's socks off.
Dior: Sauvage This is garbage. Plain and simple. I bought this because I was talking to another guy in my office about fragrance and he told me all about how Sauvage was that best thing that had been released in the past hundred years. So, I went to see my guy at Bloomingdales and got a bottle. This shit stinks. It smells like Axe body wash. There's something in it that makes me think of the "too much cologne" guy. I don't even care about the stuff that's under that. The primary smell is the "too much cologne guy." I was honestly shocked. I didn't figure that Dior would release something so brutal and blunt. Maybe this is just too "young" for me but I think that it's unnecessarily heavy and falsely deep. Not impressed. I like Dolce and Gabbana Light Blue Sun for women WAY better. More on that later. Regardless, Sauvage is a no go. Do not buy this.
Dolce and Gabbana: Light Blue Sun This is a women's fragrance. I don't care. It smells amazing. It's not unisex. If you're a man and you wear this, you're going to smell like a chick. But a really sophisticated chick with her shit entirely together. This smells like the beach and salt water and the sun and coppertone. It smells like a day that you wished you'd known was going to be as perfect as it turned out to be so that you could have paid attention better. This smells like a sexy librarian with a trust fund who you think, "She has no idea how hot she is." You're wrong. She knows exactly how hot she is and she wrecks men like you. I love this and wear it regularly during the summer. When told that this smells good, I always think, "Of course you think it smells good. I smell like the woman with the story you'd like to be yours."
Dunhill: Edition Do you want to smell like Magnum PI? For an hour? Buy Edition. Edition is magical. For a very short time. If you want to smell like James Bond, killing people after you just met a smoking hot spy at some roulette table, you need Edition. I don't know what this smells like. But it doesn't last long. It just smells like British. I don't know what more to say about that. It smells like green plants and assertiveness and a Jaguar XK150. You'll think you smell good and you'll be right but nobody else will be able to smell you after you leave the house. Edition smells absolutely amazing but you better do whatever you're up to quickly because it will leave you just as quickly as you put it on. This is like a less aggressive de Pasha. Buy it and then, be annoyed that it lasts for shit. Come to think of it, James Bond movies are only 2 hours long so maybe it lasts exactly as long as it needs to.
Dunhill: Fresh Do NOT buy this. Because it smells amazing and like very few other fragrances and it is my secret. This is very near all the other "sea" fragrances but goes further, somehow. This smells like the movie Dirty Rotten Scoundrels in the best way possible. This smells like Nice in August. The sea is there, the flowers are there, the food is there. This smells like that linen shirt that you almost don't put on because you think, "This makes me look like P. Diddy...I probably shouldn't wear this." But, yes, you should and who cares? Dunhill Fresh is so slick and subtle but also different. Nobody will tell you that you smell great because you just will and it smells like you're expecting to smell great and it's not a big deal. I've worn this on the Mediterranean and it was exactly perfect. It doesn't need to be warm and sunny to wear this. But it will definitely remind you of the days of summer.
Guerlain: Habit Rouge I bought this because my grandfather always had it. This smells like your grandmother's ass and lipstick when you first spray it on. But....wait. It turns into something amazing. I don't know how but it does. Habit Rouge starts out smelling like fake roses and playdoh. And then, it somehow morphs into something that can't be described. It smells like meritocracy and maturity and magic and the drawer of a dresser that has smelled exactly the same in one of the houses on Bellevue Avenue in Newport for 100 years. Be clear. You will not like or "get" Habit Rouge the first time you wear it. You will think that it smells like an old lady. You will think that it's a lot of things but none of them, "male." Stop. Let it sink in. Let it sit. Habit Rouge is so good it should be illegal. You need to have balls the size of Godzilla to wear Habit Rouge. Or, wear Habit Rouge and you will end up with Godzilla sized balls. I don't want to be crass but, there are two fragrances (both Guerlain) that have elicited the statement, "You smell fucking amazing" in bed. The first is Habit Rouge. Once you get Habit Rouge on your skin it's nearly impossible to understand why other fragrances exist at all. Habit Rouge mixed with light body odor and the smell of having been outdoors is so good it should be a federal offense.
Guerlain: Heritage This is what Chanel Egoiste would smell like if they took the "bug spray" smell out. Again, almost impossible to describe. It's got that "Dead Poets Society" smell but deeper and more serious. It's got a warmer, velvety feel to it. There's a leather background to it and something that just makes you want to keep smelling it. How Guerlains are around $100 a bottle, I have no idea whatsoever. Heritage isn't my "signature" scent but it could be. It could be anyone's. I'm probably wrong but if you're a young guy who has been told to get Sauvage...ignore that and get Heritage. They don't smell the same but trust me that you'll realize that this was a great idea much later.
Guerlain: L'Instant I'm going to keep this short and tell you two things, here. 1. L'Instant smells like chocolate covered orange peel, incense, vanilla and the heavy red velvet curtains in a French whore house and will change but lasts almost 24 hours. 2. L'Instant WILL get you laid. Guaranteed. By women or men who know exactly what they're doing and are unnaturally talented at fucking. I'm sorry to be coarse but some things need to be stated exactly as they are. L'Instant goes great with my Ferragamo loafers. L'Instant smells like you've never made a bad decision because even your bad decisions turn out brilliantly. L'Instant smells like the integrity of Abraham Lincoln crossed with the filth of a really artfully shot porn film. If all Guerlain made was this, they could consider themselves "done." This stuff is in an entirely other league. This is the other Guerlain that has elicited the contextual comment referenced in the Habit Rouge summary. The things that you will do and the situations that you will find yourself in while wearing L'Instant will ruin your life and you'll love every minute. Please, don't buy this. I'm warning you. You'll accidentally buy a boat. You'll have a soundtrack that only you can hear. You'll feel bad for Chris Isaak and Helena Christensen that they were so prudish and awkward in that Wicked Game video in comparison to you.
Guerlain: Vetiver I read somewhere that JFK used to wear this. I can see that. If you want to smell like Don Draper, wear this. It's pretty straight forward and smells like Vetiver. How do I know that? Because I have Royall Vetiver and the smell is almost identical. You can tell that this is well made and classic but it might not be the smell for you. I think that maybe, once upon a time, vetiver was a man's smell. But I think that enough time has passed that nobody remembers when men smelled like this. You'll have to decide how you play that. If you want to know what vetiver smells like, get this. If you want to smell like vetiver, get this. I haven't given this one a fair shot but I want to. It's very even toned and reasonable. It smells like it could be worn by someone dangerous but probably wouldn't be.
Lacoste: Pour Homme This is a great middle of the road smell. This is suit but with no tie. It's citrusy but also smells a little like burning leaves. I had a friend in high school who wore United Colors of Benneton and this reminds me of that. I don't think that they smell the same but I get the same, fun, innocent feeling from those days when I smell this. I think this would smell great on a man or a woman. I wear this now and then when I think, "Oh, I like that one. I haven't worn it in a while. I think I'll wear it today. This smells like a really solid concierge at the Hilton. He'll get you whatever you want and make you feel like a million bucks. No reason not to have this one.
Lacoste: Essential I like this Lacoste, too. It's very simple and very fresh. It smells like a fancy tennis game in 1983. Another high school memory, here. When I was in high school, I spent my summers working at the pool restaurant at the country club. This smells like that. It smells like sporty money but nothing too obnoxious or simplistic. It's exactly what it needs to be. This is a good fragrance for a steak dinner at one of those places where everything is a la carte. If you're wearing a polo shirt with an alligator on it, you should wear this because you'll smell exactly right and it's what everyone is imagining you probably smell like, anyway. Give the people what they want. I don't remember where or when I bought this but I feel like it's probably too cheap to not get. Again, if you're a young guy and someone told you to buy Dior Sauvage buy this instead. I say that because demographic-wise, this skews towards the younger women I've dated. 25 year old women with their first "real job in the city" seem to like this scent.
Lalique: Encre Noir I bought this at Neiman Marcus. I think that I'd be blown away by this if I hadn't smelled anything from Guerlain. This is heavy and smells like Dracula in a mossy forest. This might be one of my favorites if I could stop wearing L'Instant. This is very dark and thick. It's almost choking and intoxicating. It smells like new money. It smells like someone who knows that class and manners are important and is trying their best to be appropriate but didn't stop to consider whether smelling like forest Dracula is necessarily appropriate in all instances. This smells great and is very forgiving despite its heft. I wouldn't let my daughter date a guy who smelled like this but I would appreciate the hell out of his effort. On the right woman, this would smell incredible and dangerous. Buy it but don't wear it all the time.
Lalique: Encre Noir Extreme I also bought this at Neiman Marcus at the same time as the other one. Everything I said about the first one stands but this one somehow has a more citrusy furniture addition and the smell of incense inside a confessional. It's hard to decide which of these is better because they're simultaneously very close but also very different. Another solid one. I'm not as convinced that this one would be good "on the right woman" it might be good on the "wrong woman." If you smell her, let me know. I bought this once and would again.
Lalique: Bentley Intense Ok, in defense of "Sauvage guy" in my office, he also recommended this and he was right. I wasn't keen on the idea of a car fragrance. It seemed tacky to me. Is that the second place prize? "I can't afford a Bentley but I smell like their perfume?" But I must admit that this stuff smells great. Super easy to wear with a suit and tie or open collar and jeans. It's very rummy and a little bit leathery and has a smell of iced tea. Maybe it doesn't and I just get confused because it's the color of iced tea. This could almost be a Guerlain scent if Guerlain didn't insist on making everything smell like it came out of a steam powered time machine. It's modern enough to be modern but classic enough to be classic. This smells like a solid upstanding family man who was a little wild in his younger days but has toned it down and has settled into his adult life but still probably shouldn't be allowed to go to a bachelor party.
Michael Kors: Extreme Sky I feel like I shouldn't like this but I do. To me, Michael Kors is synonymous with people buying a Michael Kors bag when they really want a Vuitton but don't have the coin and convince themselves that Michael Kors is just as good. But this stuff smells like lightning and rain. I don't know another way to describe it. It's fresh and windy and feels like what the Sharper Image should smell like back when Sharper Image was cool and not just more expensive Spencers Gifts. (Are these references contemporary? Do those places still exist?) This smells like chrome and glass and track lighting. This smells like the guy at the BMW dealer who's the best salesman there and is somehow making 6 figures selling cars and has no idea that he could triple his income doing exactly what he's doing but selling something other than cars. I don't wear this often but I will miss it when it's gone because by that time, you won't be able to get it anymore. I probably shouldn't like this one but I do.
Penhaligons: Bayolea Do you want to spend an insane amount of money to smell like a barber shop in 1952? Then, this is for you. This stuff smells like a pirate ship if pirates weren't filthy and showered. This is like the best Bay Rhum that you will ever inhale. It smells like someone else's signature smell that they found ages ago for next to no money in some little shop in the Virgin Islands but which you will never be able to get. It smells like it should be cheap but the quality is just beyond next level. This is classic. They say that vetiver is the classic male scent but I think, really, it's this one. This smells like the guy with the 150' sail boat who used to sail his own boat but then hired a captain to sail it for him but then decided that he was going to go back to sailing his own boat again.
Penhaligons: Endymion This stuff is unbelievable. It reminds me of a very British Guerlain. This is up there with L'Instant and is somehow similar but with the addition of espresso. Very sophisticated. You might want to take up pipe smoking if you want to wear this. Or, at least, increase the number of leather bound first editions that you own. This is what Winston Churchill would smell like if he looked like George Clooney. I don't think that a younger guy could wear this. It doesn't smell like an old man but just like you need to mature into your first Kiton shirt, you need to be ready to step into this one. This smells like an F-50 CEO who somehow never has to do any work. No problem whatsoever with a woman wearing this one. I have one in particular who always uses a bit when she leaves.
Penhaligons: Juniper Sling. Gin martini. That's it. This smells like a gin martini without the alcoholic stink. People will ask you if they're correct that you smell like a martini. They will be. This one is fun to wear and I feel like it's a companion to Bayolea. To be fair to this one it only really smells like a martini for the first hour and then it turns into something that smells like the flowery freshness of a garden on a not too humid day. This reminds me of the 100 year old tile bathroom on the first floor of the NYAC. It smelled that way 100 years ago and will still smell the same 100 years from now, long after you're dead. This just smells like class in a bottle. If you actually want to embrace smelling like Gordon Gekko with absolutely no apologies, you should buy this. I don't think women like the way this smells. I don't think that the men wearing it particularly care.
Pinaud: Clubman Classic Vanilla This is in a plastic bottle and costs $6 at your local Walgreens. Penhaligons could easily take this and just dump it into fancier glass bottles and sell it for $150. I think that they've been making this the same way for decades and it is such a sleeper that I almost hesitate to mention it. This has so much going on and is spicy without being too spicy, only faintly vanilla-y and is an all around great scent. I'll go through phases where this is my go-to for a month at a time. This smells the way Mrs. Robinson from the Graduate wanted her men to smell. Benjamin didn't smell that way because I'm sure he wore Old Spice but she let it slide. You're a fool if you don't buy this the next time you have to refill your tooth paste supply.
Royall: Vetiver I find this one interchangeable (more or less) with Guerlain Vetiver. It's a little bit citrusy and very thickly vetiver. I read somewhere that the origin of vetiver was from the fact that they used vetiver oil to ship very expensive men's clothing and keep bugs away from it but that the Vetiver smell never really went away. That seems to make sense to me on this one. This is exactly what I imagine a very nice suit would smell like if it were shipped to me in 1870. It smells classic and grassy and seems like it wants to be cloying but never really gets there. I think that for a while Royall stuff was cheap and then expensive and then cheap again. I bought all my Royalls ages ago at Brooks Bros so I'm sure I paid way, way too much for them. But whatever they cost, it's worth it just for the cool bottles with the crown caps.
Royall: Spyce This Smells like super fantastic Old Spice. It smells like a super deep version of your grandfather after he just got back from playing golf in a nice cashmere v neck sweater. If you want to smell like old spice but better, this is a very refined way to go. It really does smell like allspice, cinnamon, cloves and cardamom but it never ventures into cookie territory. It's very warm and fairly heavy. I think that Royall, being Bermuda based, thinks that it has mostly warm-weather type scents. I'd be careful with this in warm weather. It's not unwearable in the warm but I'd go light on it.
Royall: Muske Musky and powdery. This is like a warm manly blanket. If you want to smell like you're very clearly in charge and nobody needs to worry anymore because you've shown up...this is the one. Mrs Robinson wanted her men to smell like Clubman Classic Vanilla but when they smelled like Royall Muske, she was immediately made weak in the knees. This is another one that could almost be in the Guerlain / Penhaligons mix but isn't subtle enough. And it's not apologetic about it's unsubtlety. It's very refined but still rough around the edges. This is what Ernest Hemmingway should have smelled like if he had gotten his shit together, grown up and conquered his alcoholism. Easy buy.
Viktor and Rolf: Spicebomb Fresh I bought this accidentally because I thought that it was Spicebomb. This is nice and easy to wear. It's got a little bit of smokiness, somehow and a lot of citrus. I don't detect much spice there but who knows. I've been told more than once that this smells good on me. It's easy when I'm not in the mood to think too hard about what I want to wear or be bothered to "pick one." Middle of the road, probably could be worn pretty easily by women.
So there you go. Going back and reading this, I'm realizing that I likely have Peter Pan syndrome but also want to smell like something from 200 years ago. But the stories are fun. I look forward to continuing to read all about everyone else's excitement about fragrances. It's a real kick.
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