First edit:
Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. Thank you moderators for pinning this post - I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January, here's a chronology of events from pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly.
Valentines Day 14/02 edit:
Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!!
I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on.
I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD'
Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day!
______________________________________________
It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread.
I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.

Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!

Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET)
Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock!
______________________________________________

Doing your part

The Congress hearing will be streamed online on the 18th of February. Please email your representatives before this day.
What else can I do?
Make sure that you are not allowing shorts to borrow your shares to short-sell them!
​

How Can You Help Me and This Thread

First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:

1. Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
2. Share this post to everyone you know - link this thread in WSB threads as comments so that we can educate the ignorant. We can link it in a way such as this: " Here’s a link to the motherload of DD for our favorite stonk " Empower others with knowledge
3. Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
4. We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
5. Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
6. Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
7. Let me know how I can better organize this thread.
8. and finally, don't forget to REPORT SHILLS. I would love to become a moderator and be able to investigate and ban shills myself. I applied but I don't think it will happen for now.

______________________________________________
Backdated posts added later in edits:

• 11-02 03:00
• Added the Chronology of events from pre-squeeze to 4th February.
• 09-02 12:45
• 22-01 13:55

______________________________________________

The List of DD Begins Here:

13-02 18:10 Shills on reddit being paid up to $650/week.

• More proof of shills
• More proof of shills
• More proof of shills

13-02 17:45 Level 2 data shows that at certain moments during trading days we may be just a few thousand shares away from hitting the high asks.
13-02 15:51 Citadel may have a long position in TSLA and will probably have to sell if it comes to liquidity when having to cover shorts (or bail out HFs again).
13-02 15:50 Intensive thesis on the Congress hearing this Thursday 18th Feb, investigating DTCC and Brokers for their complicity in enabling naked shorting, and likely collusion to shut down trading on the 28th Jan. You can help out by contacting representatives with the points mentioned in the thread.

• On Thursday you can watch the live stream here.

13-02 07:50 IV changes in options indicate that a $50 support level is established with a possible $50-72 channel. Analysing option prices shows that another run-up is coming.
13-02 06:30 At this point, if manipulators pushed the price down too hard it would have taken more shares off the market through puts, reducing the liquidity further, making it harder for the HFs.

• Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
• The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.

13-02 05:15 We are currently in a liquidity crisis and shorts cannot cover in such an environment. Manipulators fought hard to keep it below $55, which was the strike price that would have hurt them the most.

• Tool to analyse the max pain price.

13-02 04:50 Prediction that during the Congress hearing this Thursday 18th Feb, GME trading may get halted until the hearing is over. DFV will hopefully explain all the fuckery that has happened so far, and the web of lies will begin to unravel. This would bring back retail investor interest and push the price back up.
13-02 04:00 A ranting reminder that any time someone is being an aggressive bully, they are operating from a place of vulnerability. Once you know this it’s easy to spot the chink in their armour that they’re trying to compensate for. We have the power.
13-02 03:00 GME is only where it is now because of manipulation. More importantly, if you think that HFs and the manipulators are planning to give up and ‘settle’ to cover at $50 you are wrong. They’re continually doubling down and won’t rest until they bring GME down to $0.
​
12-02 22:50 WSB Warzone - Since the most discussed ticker was GME, the post was deleted.
12-02 17:10 Compilation of Due Diligence

• The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
• HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
• Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
• Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
• We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.

12-02 08:20 Shorting halted by most Brokers

• In fact iBorrowDesk only saw a 100k share movement from the 1.4M shares available to borrow all through the trading day.

12-02 07:00 FTDs: HFs naked short positions opened after 1st Feb (after the FINRA report data) and not before so that they do not get accounted for in the latest FINRA report. These new positions will have to be covered by 24th Feb if they do not want them to be shown in the next report.
12-02 02:00 Data assimilation (extractions from FINRA and Yahoo Finance) showing December 2020’s short positions that are in the red, and probably are not covered by now at significant losses (the real bagholders).

• Shorts were betting that GME wouldn’t pass $20.

​
11-02 16:40 GameStop Executives held the line and did not sell any shares at peak, even though they had the option to.
11-02 16:00 Why we don’t need a squeeze to win, Ryan Cohen’s changes to the company operation will blow up the company’s value.
11-02 15:00 Implied Volatility surges, particularly for $800 Calls expiring Feb 26th, indicating higher volatility in the days to come.
11-02 14:45 Calculations showing that:

• ~40M shares held by retail investors (~80%)
• ~54M shares held by institutions (~113%)
• ~48M shares as float (this is probably incorrect as Morningstar reports a float of 27M)
• GME detained at 193% total
• Real short interest at 138% (if Morningstar is correct, the SI would actually be 248%)

11-02 12:30 ETFs went on a buying spree, reducing float, and diamond handing.

• Link contains breakdowns of institutional shares held and changes

11-02 05:10 A list of potential upcoming changes to company operations that will make the stock much more interesting for retail investors.
11-03 03:50 A reminder from an older investor to always stick to your original plan and not get distracted by some shiny object. If you find something and ten people tell you that it’s worthless, then it isn’t.
11-02 03:00 The state of WSB since the moderator coup
11-02 01:35 Shorts could have covered on the upswing on the 10th Feb, then released fake news on Fidelity selling their shares then started short-selling and short-laddering to drop the price again.

• They start pumping weed stocks as a distraction on WSB.
• GME is inversely following SPY - liquidation.

11-02 01:10 A comparison of Short Interest data from providers.
​
10-02 08:30 Shorts have most probably been buying $800 Calls to make it seem like they ‘cancel out’ their short positions.
10-02 08:20 Figures, calculations and logic showing that the Short Interest is higher than anything reported.
10-02 07:50 An overview of what happened so far, with psychology and reasoning of HFs along the way.
10-02 06:15 DD on possibilities of covering and outlook of potential outcomes.
10-02 06:10 Crunching Finra’s SI report shows that SI is over 117%, and that there were 112% more shares shorted than were actually available to purchase on 27th January. It’s possible that between 1/13-17 about 7M shorts were covered, but they had to have continued to short like crazy since then to push the price down.
10-02 05:20 Naked shorting was probably aided by DTCC who probably shut down buying to stop the squeeze to avoid a scandal. Shorts likely hid their open positions via a loophole which generated synthetic longs. If this is correct there is a large amount of counterfeit shares floating in the market.
10-02 04:22 Finra reports 78% SI, while institutions own 206% (144M shares) of all outstanding shares. This could mean that actual SI is around 150%.
10-02 03:00 Finra releases SI data: 78.5%
​
09-02 20:00 A compilation of manipulative tactics and logical fallacies to help you identify when they are being attempted against you.
09-02 12:45 Biden administration cannot allow itself to lose trust at the beginning at the term, and HFs Brokers WS and the media may be in a worse position than we thought.
09-02 08:45 Cramer exposed - video from 2006 shows how himself (when he managed an HF) and other HFs manipulate markets.
09-02 08:20 Shares being bought around $270 after hours.
09-02 02:00 Proof that FINTEL are altering short data, with replies from CEO.

• More Proof.
• Further proof.

​
08-02 17:00 Shorts may provide fake data to FINRA for a relatively small fine which could help save them millions-billions.
08-02 14:15 Compilation of DD showing that nothing has changed no matter what the media is saying.
08-02 09:50 They are losing $2B ever 2.5 days
08-02 01:45 Why to buy GME regardless of a squeeze. The future of GameStop is bright.
​
07-02 16:45 Hypothesis that Melvin is just a tool for larger hedge fund to take over Citadel and take trillions from them.
07-02 16:40 Evidence shows the HFs likely use a loophole trick to appear as if they covered their shorts using synthetic longs generated from options.
07-02 13:30 A very useful spreadsheet to track and analyse stocks
07-02 03:45 There is no mathematical way shorts covered for Jan 13, 22, or 25 as is being reported by SI data providers - they are lying.
​
06-02 22:00 The interstellar yo-yo theory: every 13 days (settlement days) stock price increases and pushes back by selling more synthetic long positions (fake shares into the market), FTDs increase
06-02 18:20 Institutions hold 177% of float, proving the existence of a huge amount of synthetic longs.
​
05-02 23:40 HFs want you to think that they repositioned and covered their shorts, but calculations show that this was impossible and the conditions were not ideal to do this without incurring massive losses.
05-02 19:30 GME and AMC graph comparison, showing the exact same movement.
​
02-02 23:30 Analysis of 265,000 rows of SEC data shows massive amount of FTDs compared to the rest of the market - likely that it is a result of massive illegal share counterfeiting by shorts.
02-02 05:30 The market may collapse due to the creation of a massive number of preexisting synthetic longs that were bought and held. To fix it, market makers decided to make more, but their cure is also a poison they can't stop taking.
02-02 04:00 Melvin claims to have closed out their positions, but used an illegal loophole to make it seem like they have.
​
01-02 23:20 Short Interest appears to have fallen but in truth is being shoved under the rug of option traders.
01-02 20:45 A list of misinformation articles inducing FUD
01-02 20:30 Following the crumbs: How GME is exposing illegal activity
01-02 17:15 Psychological warfare - FUD and manipulated dips along with further short-selling to make you believe that you’ve missed the peak.
01-02 10:20 Evidence of massive naked short selling fraud.
01-02 02:30 Public data suggest massive securities fraud creating more shares than exist, and that retail investors may hold more than 100% of all outstanding shares.
​
31-01 09:10 Wall Street is freaking out because they are about to get caught doing extremely illegal shit that may implode the whole system - fake shares in the float.
25-01 23:30 Today’s co-ordinated attack: let the price run up only to jack up margin requirements, then dumped.
22-01 13:55 Make sure that you are not helping shorts borrow your shares and short sell by opting out with your broker! Some brokers settings are by default, so you have to change it yourself.
​
A chronology of events pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly.

First edit:
Fuck this thing blew up. in all my years of redditing I have never been overwhelmed with wholesomeness like today. Thank you moderators for pinning this post - I will keep updating this on the regular! Before I go, if anyone wants further information going back before 25th January, here's a chronology of events from pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly.
Valentines Day 14/02 edit:
Thank you all for your positive feedback and for literally all the awards. In all my life I never got platinum, let alone Argentium, and then Ternion!!!
I had a few celebratory drinks last night and I woke up totally shitfaced. It's valentine's day and I will be spending the day with the gf (who as some of you noticed from my page-article, we are expecting by the end of the month and she is right about to pop so she needs extra care and attention). I will be reading all the comments during the day, every time the gf turns her head a bit from me. I'm saving the comments with links to DDs so that I can add them later on.
I urge each and every one of you to read the new section 'HOW CAN YOU HELP ME WITH THIS THREAD'
Again thank you for everything and stay positive! Make sure to let the ones who care about you know that you care about them too today! Happy Valentines Day!
______________________________________________
It took me a very long time to collect and create abstracts, but I finally finished. I'm totally exhausted but quite proud of myself for bringing you everything you need to know so far in one thread.
I would love for this thread to be stickied, and if it does I plan to continue to update the same thread every day. If it does not I will continue posting updated versions every day. I also have my own website where I will keep updating this list.

Please help spread this around - knowledge is power. If you have a link to more DD leave a comment!

Please note that all Dates and Times posted are Central European Times (CET)
Obligatory: This is not financial advice. I am a smooth-brained holder of GME 🚀💎🤲 We like the stock!
______________________________________________

Doing your part

The Congress hearing will be streamed online on the 18th of February. Please email your representatives before this day.
What else can I do?
Make sure that you are not allowing shorts to borrow your shares to short-sell them!
​

How Can You Help Me and This Thread

First of all, THANK YOU. If you really want to help me and our brothers, here's what you can do:

1. Read and provide criticism, help me make better summaries and one-liners for the links to make it as readable as possible (think: ELI5)
2. Share this post to everyone you know - link this thread in WSB threads as comments so that we can educate the ignorant. We can link it in a way such as this: " Here’s a link to the motherload of DD for our favorite stonk " Empower others with knowledge
3. Look for any DD I have missed, old and new, especially in OG WSB from before the coup - send them to me as links in comments AND AS CHAT MESSAGES. I am going through all messages and I will update later today
4. We need to find a way to archive all the DD links from WSB so that if the mods of WSB catch on, we can have a backup of the threads before they delete them!
5. Collect more information on the coup, such as the info that was present from wallstreetbetstest and u/zjz posts. The retaliation messages, proof of removals of threads, bans for no reason ...etc.
6. Collect fake media articles that we can disprove so that I can compile a full list of bullshit media providers and articles
7. Let me know how I can better organize this thread.
8. and finally, don't forget to REPORT SHILLS. I would love to become a moderator and be able to investigate and ban shills myself. I applied but I don't think it will happen for now.

______________________________________________
Backdated posts added later in edits:

• 11-02 03:00
• Added the Chronology of events from pre-squeeze to 4th February.
• 09-02 12:45
• 22-01 13:55

______________________________________________

The List of DD Begins Here:

13-02 18:10 Shills on reddit being paid up to $650/week.

• More proof of shills
• More proof of shills
• More proof of shills

13-02 17:45 Level 2 data shows that at certain moments during trading days we may be just a few thousand shares away from hitting the high asks.
13-02 15:51 Citadel may have a long position in TSLA and will probably have to sell if it comes to liquidity when having to cover shorts (or bail out HFs again).
13-02 15:50 Intensive thesis on the Congress hearing this Thursday 18th Feb, investigating DTCC and Brokers for their complicity in enabling naked shorting, and likely collusion to shut down trading on the 28th Jan. You can help out by contacting representatives with the points mentioned in the thread.

• On Thursday you can watch the live stream here.

13-02 07:50 IV changes in options indicate that a $50 support level is established with a possible $50-72 channel. Analysing option prices shows that another run-up is coming.
13-02 06:30 At this point, if manipulators pushed the price down too hard it would have taken more shares off the market through puts, reducing the liquidity further, making it harder for the HFs.

• Price target prediction end of next week 19th Feb @ $58-59, with peaks above $60 to issue further Calls (to get paid the premium) then hold it below this line.
• The following week 26th Feb will end below $70 as there is a large off-set of calls vs Puts at this strike price, and a gain from 50-70 in two weeks will bring in more retail investors again.

13-02 05:15 We are currently in a liquidity crisis and shorts cannot cover in such an environment. Manipulators fought hard to keep it below $55, which was the strike price that would have hurt them the most.

• Tool to analyse the max pain price.

13-02 04:50 Prediction that during the Congress hearing this Thursday 18th Feb, GME trading may get halted until the hearing is over. DFV will hopefully explain all the fuckery that has happened so far, and the web of lies will begin to unravel. This would bring back retail investor interest and push the price back up.
13-02 04:00 A ranting reminder that any time someone is being an aggressive bully, they are operating from a place of vulnerability. Once you know this it’s easy to spot the chink in their armour that they’re trying to compensate for. We have the power.
13-02 03:00 GME is only where it is now because of manipulation. More importantly, if you think that HFs and the manipulators are planning to give up and ‘settle’ to cover at $50 you are wrong. They’re continually doubling down and won’t rest until they bring GME down to $0.
​
12-02 22:50 WSB Warzone - Since the most discussed ticker was GME, the post was deleted.
12-02 17:10 Compilation of Due Diligence

• The surge up to $480 was likely not short-squeezing, but reducing liquidity along with massive retail investment along with Gamma squeeze covering naked options.
• HFs liquidated significant positions of major holdings causing red days to have cash for covering positions.
• Shills, bots and crooked mods have infested WSB to spread FUD and delete posts and users fighting the good fight.
• Massive amount of $800 Calls expiring March 19th, along with massive amount of Puts for TSLA - as GME spiked TSLA tanks
• We will likely not see a massive squeeze, but a slow cover similar to TSLA short squeeze.

12-02 08:20 Shorting halted by most Brokers

• In fact iBorrowDesk only saw a 100k share movement from the 1.4M shares available to borrow all through the trading day.

12-02 07:00 FTDs: HFs naked short positions opened after 1st Feb (after the FINRA report data) and not before so that they do not get accounted for in the latest FINRA report. These new positions will have to be covered by 24th Feb if they do not want them to be shown in the next report.
12-02 02:00 Data assimilation (extractions from FINRA and Yahoo Finance) showing December 2020’s short positions that are in the red, and probably are not covered by now at significant losses (the real bagholders).

• Shorts were betting that GME wouldn’t pass $20.

​
11-02 16:40 GameStop Executives held the line and did not sell any shares at peak, even though they had the option to.
11-02 16:00 Why we don’t need a squeeze to win, Ryan Cohen’s changes to the company operation will blow up the company’s value.
11-02 15:00 Implied Volatility surges, particularly for $800 Calls expiring Feb 26th, indicating higher volatility in the days to come.
11-02 14:45 Calculations showing that:

• ~40M shares held by retail investors (~80%)
• ~54M shares held by institutions (~113%)
• ~48M shares as float (this is probably incorrect as Morningstar reports a float of 27M)
• GME detained at 193% total
• Real short interest at 138% (if Morningstar is correct, the SI would actually be 248%)

11-02 12:30 ETFs went on a buying spree, reducing float, and diamond handing.

• Link contains breakdowns of institutional shares held and changes

11-02 05:10 A list of potential upcoming changes to company operations that will make the stock much more interesting for retail investors.
11-03 03:50 A reminder from an older investor to always stick to your original plan and not get distracted by some shiny object. If you find something and ten people tell you that it’s worthless, then it isn’t.
11-02 03:00 The state of WSB since the moderator coup
11-02 01:35 Shorts could have covered on the upswing on the 10th Feb, then released fake news on Fidelity selling their shares then started short-selling and short-laddering to drop the price again.

• They start pumping weed stocks as a distraction on WSB.
• GME is inversely following SPY - liquidation.

11-02 01:10 A comparison of Short Interest data from providers.
​
10-02 08:30 Shorts have most probably been buying $800 Calls to make it seem like they ‘cancel out’ their short positions.
10-02 08:20 Figures, calculations and logic showing that the Short Interest is higher than anything reported.
10-02 07:50 An overview of what happened so far, with psychology and reasoning of HFs along the way.
10-02 06:15 DD on possibilities of covering and outlook of potential outcomes.
10-02 06:10 Crunching Finra’s SI report shows that SI is over 117%, and that there were 112% more shares shorted than were actually available to purchase on 27th January. It’s possible that between 1/13-17 about 7M shorts were covered, but they had to have continued to short like crazy since then to push the price down.
10-02 05:20 Naked shorting was probably aided by DTCC who probably shut down buying to stop the squeeze to avoid a scandal. Shorts likely hid their open positions via a loophole which generated synthetic longs. If this is correct there is a large amount of counterfeit shares floating in the market.
10-02 04:22 Finra reports 78% SI, while institutions own 206% (144M shares) of all outstanding shares. This could mean that actual SI is around 150%.
10-02 03:00 Finra releases SI data: 78.5%
​
09-02 20:00 A compilation of manipulative tactics and logical fallacies to help you identify when they are being attempted against you.
09-02 12:45 Biden administration cannot allow itself to lose trust at the beginning at the term, and HFs Brokers WS and the media may be in a worse position than we thought.
09-02 08:45 Cramer exposed - video from 2006 shows how himself (when he managed an HF) and other HFs manipulate markets.
09-02 08:20 Shares being bought around $270 after hours.
09-02 02:00 Proof that FINTEL are altering short data, with replies from CEO.

• More Proof.
• Further proof.

​
08-02 17:00 Shorts may provide fake data to FINRA for a relatively small fine which could help save them millions-billions.
08-02 14:15 Compilation of DD showing that nothing has changed no matter what the media is saying.
08-02 09:50 They are losing $2B ever 2.5 days
08-02 01:45 Why to buy GME regardless of a squeeze. The future of GameStop is bright.
​
07-02 16:45 Hypothesis that Melvin is just a tool for larger hedge fund to take over Citadel and take trillions from them.
07-02 16:40 Evidence shows the HFs likely use a loophole trick to appear as if they covered their shorts using synthetic longs generated from options.
07-02 13:30 A very useful spreadsheet to track and analyse stocks
07-02 03:45 There is no mathematical way shorts covered for Jan 13, 22, or 25 as is being reported by SI data providers - they are lying.
​
06-02 22:00 The interstellar yo-yo theory: every 13 days (settlement days) stock price increases and pushes back by selling more synthetic long positions (fake shares into the market), FTDs increase
06-02 18:20 Institutions hold 177% of float, proving the existence of a huge amount of synthetic longs.
​
05-02 23:40 HFs want you to think that they repositioned and covered their shorts, but calculations show that this was impossible and the conditions were not ideal to do this without incurring massive losses.
05-02 19:30 GME and AMC graph comparison, showing the exact same movement.
​
02-02 23:30 Analysis of 265,000 rows of SEC data shows massive amount of FTDs compared to the rest of the market - likely that it is a result of massive illegal share counterfeiting by shorts.
02-02 05:30 The market may collapse due to the creation of a massive number of preexisting synthetic longs that were bought and held. To fix it, market makers decided to make more, but their cure is also a poison they can't stop taking.
02-02 04:00 Melvin claims to have closed out their positions, but used an illegal loophole to make it seem like they have.
​
01-02 23:20 Short Interest appears to have fallen but in truth is being shoved under the rug of option traders.
01-02 20:45 A list of misinformation articles inducing FUD
01-02 20:30 Following the crumbs: How GME is exposing illegal activity
01-02 17:15 Psychological warfare - FUD and manipulated dips along with further short-selling to make you believe that you’ve missed the peak.
01-02 10:20 Evidence of massive naked short selling fraud.
01-02 02:30 Public data suggest massive securities fraud creating more shares than exist, and that retail investors may hold more than 100% of all outstanding shares.
​
31-01 09:10 Wall Street is freaking out because they are about to get caught doing extremely illegal shit that may implode the whole system - fake shares in the float.
25-01 23:30 Today’s co-ordinated attack: let the price run up only to jack up margin requirements, then dumped.
22-01 13:55 Make sure that you are not helping shorts borrow your shares and short sell by opting out with your broker! Some brokers settings are by default, so you have to change it yourself.
​
A chronology of events pre-squeeze till 4th February written by yours truly.

From the guys who brought you The Greatest Short Burn of the Century..

Oh man, oh man, oh man.
Not again.
-Drizzy

Preface:
Please believe me when I say I really wanted to take this month off and enjoy the snow in Tahoe. But as I was driving, something caught my eye...
Make no mistake. This stock is not going to be nearly as volatile or profitable as GME. In fact, this might be so boring that most of you will ignore me yet again. And that’s exactly why I like it. I’ll do my best to make this engaging, but the fact is, this is going to be a slow grind. Both this DD and the stock.
Also, as a bonus, Reddit is currently public enemy #1 in the eyes of the media. Why don’t we do a quick heel-turn and join their side? Are they gonna hate us for buying boring value stocks? They won’t know what hit them. That will be a fun show to watch.
Anyway… let’s take a look under the hood. As always, not financial advice. Just education. NOTHING IS A RECOMMENDATION. We are just sharing knowledge here. Ok SEC?
Intro:
Ford (NYSE: $F -- NOT NASDAQ:$FORD), is another depressed deep value multiple expansion arbitrage play. No short squeeze this time. The GME asymmetry may not be seen again for 10 years.
It might seem boring and unsexy on the surface, but Ford is a fantastic company in the midst of one of the best turnarounds in American history. And with a little help from our friend Mr. Options (or as Buffett called, Financial Weapons of Mass Destruction) we can turn a boring old Ford into a lightning fast Ferrari using the quadruple income option wheel strategy. Don’t try this at home. If you don’t know what CSPs, CCs, or vega are, stick to shares. Those should work just fine.
Let’s break this down into 5 parts: electrification story and leadership, multiples expansion, technical analysis, options, and the trade.
By the way, in 2019, the Ford F-Series was second only to the Apple iPhone, which raked in $55 billion, in terms of total revenue generated. The F-Series generated more revenue than the NFL, MLB, NBA, and the NHL combined, which added up to $40 billion. Just something to think about.

The wheels on the bus go round and round, round and round...

Electrification story and leadership:
Let’s jump into history for a second. Ford had a meteoric rise from 1997 - 1999 from $15 to around $32 at the peak. This was due to $F reporting massive earnings increases each quarter:

• Dec 1996 - 1997 Ford F-150 - Truck of the Year
  
• Jan 1997 - Ford profits up 82 percent
  
• Oct 1997 - Ford profits up 64 percent
  
• Jan 1998 - Ford profits up 56 percent
  

They were just feasting and feasting. Jim Farley looks like the best person alive to revitalize Ford, capable of tripling the stock in 2-3 years. Look at the last two quarters:

• Q3-2020 - Adjusted EPS: 65 cents vs 19 cents expected, Automotive revenue: $34.71 billion vs $33.51 billion expected (due to pent up demand)
  
• Q2-2020 - Adjusted EPS: A loss of 35 cents per share versus a loss of $1.17 per share expected, Automotive revenue: $16.6 billion versus $15.95 billion expected.
  

Here are excerpts from the Q3 earnings and some other notable highlights:

Farley: Now that plan, which was introduced to the Ford team and many stakeholders on October 1, is very straightforward. Among other things, No. 1, we will compete like a challenger, earning each customer with great products but as well services with rewarding ownership experiences. Number two, we're moving with urgency to turn around our automotive operations, improve our quality, reduce our cost and accelerate the restructuring of underperforming businesses.
And third, we're going to grow again but in the right areas, allocating more capital, more resources, more talent to our very strongest businesses and vehicle franchises; incubating, scaling and integrating new businesses, some of them enabled by new technology like Argo's world-class self-driving system; and expanding our leading commercial vehicle business with great margins but now with the suite of software services that drive loyalty and generate reoccurring annuity-like revenue streams; and being a leader in electric vehicle revolution around the world where we have strength and scale. So now speaking about EVs. To start with, we're developing all-new electric versions of the F-150 and the Transit, the two most important, highest-volume commercial vehicles in our industry. These leading vehicles really drive the commercial vehicle business at Ford, and we're electrifying them.

Quick sidebar here from my buddy M: "Whereas traditional manufact / consumer / industrials are valued on an EBITDA multiple, SAAS has historically been valued on a revenue multiple, which translates to flat out higher valuations. EVs themselves are not necessarily a higher margin product that justifies a higher multiple (at least not that I've seen), but tech services / subscriptions are the real money makers in this game. Hint Hint companies like Apple throwing everything they have at trying to integrate services and subscriptions over the last 5 years"
This further justifies the expansion multiples we expect will catch up to leading EV automakers (see below).

We own work at Ford. And these electric vehicles will be true work vehicles, extremely capable and with unique digital services and over-the-air capabilities to improve the productivity and uptime of our important commercial customers. The electric Transit, by the way, will be revealed next month, and you heard about it here first, for all of our global markets. We believe the addressable market for a fully electric commercial van and pickup, the two largest addressable profit pools in commercial, are going to be massive.
Now you're going to see our strategy of electrifying our leading commercial vehicles and our iconic high-volume products expand very quickly at Ford.
When you look at our results, they reflect the benefit of our decision two years ago to allocate capital to our strongest franchise, namely: pickups, a whole range of utilities across the world, commercial vehicles and iconic passenger vehicles. Additionally, we saw higher-than-expected demand for our new vehicles in the quarter.
Together, these factors, plus the strongest performance from Ford Credit in 15 years, led to a total company adjusted EBIT margin of 9.7%. That's 490 basis points higher than last year.
As an outcome of all this, we generated $6.3 billion in adjusted free cash flow.
The strong cash flow in the quarter gave us the confidence and the ability to make a second payment on our corporate revolver, which we did on September 24. So now we have fully repaid the entire $15 billion facility, and we ended the third quarter with a strong balance sheet, including nearly $30 billion in cash and more than $45 billion of liquidity, which provides us with the vital financial flexibility we need.

Check out this credit downgrade weeks before Ford paid off their revolving credit facility. Smells like GME?
Alright. What about Q4-2020 and beyond? Ford is expected to post a loss. TA is signaling a beat (see the TA section). Ford is spending this money in order further restructure and deliver on the following items in their pipeline:
Bronco:

• Within the first month of open reservations, the Bronco had received an estimated 230,000 reservations. 230,000 reservations is an incredibly impressive figure, especially when put into the context of Ford’s total vehicle sales. 230,000 sales would represent 4% of Ford’s total sales.
  
• Current estimates place over 20% of reservation holders as first-time Ford buyers.
  
• The most expensive trim, the limited ‘First Edition’, has already sold out.
  

Mach-E vs Tesla Model Y. Just the fact that there is debate between the better car is bullish for Ford.

• Source 1
  
• Source 2
  
• Source 3
  

The upcoming 2021 F-150 has positive consumer reviews as well:

• The 2021 Ford F-150 Is So Stuffed With New Tech & Gadgets That Even Tesla Owners Are Impressed!
  
• DeMuro - The 2021 Ford F-150 Is Totally New and Really Impressive
  
• Some other nice features: Fold down the shifter, lay seats down completely flat, speakers in headrest, tailgate worksurface (pen/pencil holders, rulers) C clamp, 120V outlet, bottle opener, light), sensing running board, tailgate step and railing, and more. Watch the video.
  

Ford Raptor launch (just happened today, customers are excited. Look at the comments on YouTube and IG)
Further potential tailwinds:

• Ford partnering with Rivian in a $500M deal. Product yet to be released.
  
• Google partnership that caused the intraday spike on 2/2.
  
• Ford is rumored to secure the USPS contract since deal talks are falling through with WKHS.
  

The Postal Service told Trucks.com that it expects to reach a contract with one or more of the teams bidding for the business in the federal government’s second fiscal quarter of 2021. That works out to the first quarter of next year.

• There is a historical inverse relationship between gas prices and car sizing. Tell me if I'm reaching here. But as America continues to head towards electrification and energy independence under Biden, larger gas cars will be more in demand. Furthermore, the aftershock of COVID will continue to propagate the dedensification of cities. Less commuter vehicles, and more travel vehicles. And look who is conveniently positioned to take advantage of all of this?
  
• Dr. Anning Chen is also a killer CEO of Ford China. This is largely intangibles (which Wall Street cannot model), but watch his interviews here and here.
  
• Dr. Chen used the COVID shutdown to improve the operational efficiency of the company. It has not shown on the bottom line thus far, but it will later.
  
• CTO Dr. Ken Washington bio. Ex Lockheed.
  
• Kennard on the board.. PE guy, on the AT&T board and former FCC chairman.
  
• Vojvodich. Ex CRM and ADHZ.
  
• Regarding the above leadership and BOD members, experienced executives are a better fit for running the day-to-day than any other. Add a sprinkle of savvy techfin folk and you have a recipe for a elite transition.
  

English please? Ford is a strong company. Farley is delivering on his promises and can lead the company towards an operationally efficient turnaround towards electrification. Combine this with a loyal customer base rivaled only by AAPL, and you get another special opportunity. This is the turning point.
Multiples Expansion:
Now here lies the crux of the thesis. Amidst all the EV hype, Ford is being unfairly ignored at an extremely depressed multiple compared to the other companies in the EV space. Here are some comparisons (numbers may be slightly outdated, pulled earlier this week, more relative comparison than absolute):
$Ticker - Market Cap - TTM Revenue MM - TTM EBITDA MM - Revenue Multiple - Ebitda Multiple
TSLA - $810B - $28B - $4B - 29X - 202X
NIO - $92B - $12B - ($7B) - 7.6X - (NaN)
GM - $78B - $116B - $18B - 0.7X - 4.3X
F - $44B - $131B - $10B - 0.3X - 4.4X
That’s an eyesore. Let’s focus on just TSLA and Ford, because why not. Assuming Ford can quickly turn towards electrification (from the evidence above), these two companies are fair comparisons. No Tesla is not a software/energy company, look at their automotive % of revenue. Stop it. It has only recently dropped to 80% due to the expansion of their leasing division. Energy is still a tiny part of TSLA.
Revenue Multiple:
TSLA = 29X
F = 0.3X
EBITDA Multiple:
TSLA = 202X
F = 4.4X
Yes those numbers are correct. Look at them for 60 seconds and tell me what you see. Quick quote from my buddy M:

Just zoom out and think. TSLA is for sure ahead of the rest on their tech and charging infra right now. But in terms of just overall bottom line infrastructure and manufacturing capability; once the GMs, Fs, and VWs of the world can get the ball rolling, they are way ahead in that aspect. Much more experience in production and retail / distribution channels, as well as logistics sourcing. Plenty of battery makers, and self driving tech makers out there too right now. Small to mid scale M&A will probably be the name of the game if I had to guess.

This is why Burry is short $TSLA, but two scenarios can unfold: either the high-flying stocks drop, or Ford rises. I believe we will land somewhere in the middle, with Ford rising as we begin to enter the optimism phase in the final third of our bull market.
Shorting is a dangerous game anyway... So I’ve been hearing on the news...
TA, Options:
Exhibit A from our resident chart whisperer J (who will remain unnamed because you monkeys keep bothering him).
Larger view.
As you can see, the trendline has broken out.
Exhibit B from our resident quant T (also to rename unnamed):

Starting on 1/4 you'll find right tail distributions into any liquidation which represent large buying. Which has led up to a recent run-up and eventually left tail distributions which represent short coverings which lead into the gaps and thinner distributions where there aren't any major bids. Even with the pullback on 1/22 we see more right tail distribution after the profit taking from the recent run-up, which means someone is buying up the inventory.
This is unusual for F, where F trades within tight ranges. On 2/1 you can see a bimodal distribution which means a new player has stepped in, which we assume has additional knowledge apart from the larger players that were already in the market. The recent range between 10.70 and 11.20 indicates that the market has accepted this price range as fair value. Without additional research at first glance we can see that a large player (or players) is buying up a significant amount of inventory.
On 1/4 we find that the volume increased to 77,559,128 from the previous trading of 34,462,454 (125% increase) and 33,127,776 the day before that. Volume has been higher since.
On our first major left tail distribution (which represents short covering) since the buying on 1/4 the volume was at 113,707,973.

Exhibit C
250k shares of F 10.92; 100k F 11.04; 3.53m F 9.78; 708k F 9.78; 500k F 9.64; 377k F 9.50; 338k F 9.50; 201k F 9.75; 192k F 9.80; 150k F 9.77
These are blocks of shares bought in the past 7 days
Top OI changes:
+19610 F 02/05/21 11 C 43821 38% 13% 48%
+12904 F 02/05/21 12 C 31929 38% 11% 52%
Top OI positions:
170902 F 02/19/21 10 C +807 26% 49% 25%
112480 F 02/19/21 12 C +3207 29% 29% 41%
The percentages are bid mid ask.
Someone is bullish on Ford.
For an earnings play, daily RSI is oversold looking towards an uptick.
Options gamma is interesting to note as well.
Open interest on 2/5 $13 and $15Cs are also notable. Could be covered calls? Could be someone knows something?
Could be Jeff reading too much into the tea leaves. Not financial advice. Just showing you what I see.
The Trade: The simplest way is just to purchase shares and collect dividends as Ford may reinstate them sometime in 2021. Possibly leaps if you feel adventurous.
For the option junkies like myself, and as a tribute to the greatest company in American history, I will use the wheel(s). The GME trade was a very special and momentous occasion. Now that we have a bankroll, we’ll just quietly play theta gang as we enjoy our lives and spend time with our families and loved ones. Here’s a good summary.
This is not for amateurs. I mean, none of this is financial advice anyway, just educational.
But in a nutshell, I will: 1) Buy shares, 2) Sell CSPs 30-45 days out with 0.3 delta, 3) sell CCs with 0.3 delta (will reconsider this if Ford goes vertical) 4) Collect dividends.
The Wheel doesn’t work on everything. Here are the qualifications from the above post, let me know if this sounds familiar:

• Profitable company that has solid cash flow
  
• Bullish, or Very Bullish, analyst ratings
  
• Priced around $10 to $50 so that I can afford to take the assignment if needed and I stay away from sub-$10 stocks as a rule
  
• A stable chart without wild gyrations (especially those caused by CEO tweets!)
  
• A nice dividend is always a good thing, both that you may collect it if assigned the stock but also that dividend stocks tend to more stable and predictable.
  

Hmm...
Conclusion:
Ford is a massive, complex, multinational corporation so I’ve likely missed very many things, but I wanted to get this out before ER so I can flex again. (No market manipulation here lol. My buddy's multi-million dollar block buys didn't move the needle one iota.) There are many things I haven’t covered, and simply don’t know yet. As more facts begin to unfold, and as I spend more time with the stock, I’ll share the information here. Also, every time I post about an equity, it seems to go down. Lol... (GME). With all this in mind, this is still a very risky bet.
Nevertheless, I like what I’ve seen thus far. Ford looks like a fantastically healthy company in the midst of a turnaround towards electrification with a phenomenally depressed multiple according to the market’s appetite. It deserves a multiple trending towards TSLA’s, not a dying auto manufacturer. Jim Farley has shown early to be a great CEO and I think he can continue the transformation. We’ve begun to enter a phase of exuberance, so I’ll choose to long Ford instead of short TSLA.
As a bonus, we have the opportunity to join forces with the boomers and talking heads and bet on one of their favorite companies. Time for America to be on the same side again. We’ve been divided for too long.
I know my GME posts were lucky. I’ll stake my reputation on another bet. One call sure is lucky. What about two? In any case, investing is a marathon, not a sprint. Glad to be a part of this journey with you all. Note: I will not discuss GME in the comments, which all depends on Ryan Cohen. There is nothing further to add until Q4 earnings.
And finally, we’ve officially entered the last phase of our very long bull market. This is not necessarily a sell signal yet, as some of the greatest returns can come in this period and can last for a long time. I will do my best to look for the signal and sound the alarm. The world will be celebrating, and I will be bearish. Burry’s passive indexing bubble call in combination with Thiel’s government debt bubble call will lead us into a dark time of unprecedented proportions. Tail risk hedging won’t work as the declines will be slow at first, and then fast and violent and unrecoverable. Be careful. Listen to Ken Fisher. Thank you very much for your time.
Positions: Bullish shares, LEAPS, on-going quadruple income wheel strategy as Ford reinstates the dividend. Timeframe 12-18 months. Watch out VIGILANTLY for macro risks. Bear market is on the horizon. Drop some Fs in the chat to pay respects.
PT: $32 with a chance of $98 if we start to see exuberance in the broader market.
-JA

This is coming from Zippo who has been known to be a credible leaker. They have leaked Mario 3D All Stars and Bowser’s Fury before official announcement. Nintendo has dealt with Zippo before, further proving credibility. I would attach a link, but for some reason it isn’t showing up on posts and comments so I’ll copy pasta it in this post. Take these leaks with a grain of salt btw:
SONIC MANAGEMENT:
Nearly management of the franchise is being done at "Sonic Pillar" in Irvine, California now. They're calling the shots, when it comes to games, merch, social media, etc. SOJ is well aware of how much more popular the franchise is in the west, so they've been entrusted with it's care. That said, here's some stuff that needs to be clarified:
They are NOT a game development studio. Producers, artists and all of that are there to ensure development on the games go smoothly. Development is still being done in Japan at the same studios as always. Iizuka and Hoshino are still the stewards of the franchise, but they're doing so in the US now.
Those 3 changes alone are pretty huge, but I would expect more to come out. There's new hands in the Sonic pie, and this is being described internally as a "new era" for the boy in blue.
Modern Sonic will be the focus of this anniversary. That detail is going to be extremely disappointing to numerous people, which is understandable, but here's why:
Classic Sonic and his series of games are seen as "old hat" at SEGA. From what I understand, Classic coming back is and was never going to be a permanent thing. Yes, I know what you're thinking, Mania was a huge success critically, and that team is immensely talented, but the thing is, SEGA doesn't want the franchise being "defined" by a 2D sprite based game that was done by fan/indie developers.
They want the games they make themselves to be the "shining beacon" of the franchise, for lack of a better word. One other big point is frankly, Classic Sonic has more than been taken care of, at this point, by fans. There are literally hundreds of ongoing fan games being made, such as Sonic Mania Megamix, Sonic Galactic, Sonic Roboblast 2, Sonic 2 HD, etc. SEGA has come out and publically supported all of these fan works, they have no need for a Mania sequel, because fans are already doing those, and then some, from their perspective. Another way to think about this is Dragon Ball. For any person not in the know, the classic Dragon Ball era of 1984-1989 has a much different art style and tone from the rest of the franchise. Akira Toriyama and his editors decided to age up the characters, increase the dramatic tone and action scenes, and completely change the art direction of the series, and for the most part, it's been that way for over 30 years. Sonic Adventure has been commonly compared to Dragon Ball Z for that very reason. Z superceded any need for Dragon Ball, and SEGA sees Sonic the same way.
Modern has much more potential in terms of merch, spinoffs, television, comics, you name it. It's what the franchise has had it's core identity in since 1998, and that's not changing, Prime sounds like it'll be continuing this sentiment.
Also, the modern cast is much bigger, is ever-growing, plenty of potential for spinoffs, has a lot of potential depth in the characters (even if the games haven't done a great job showing that), and while this may not be important for some, the much larger female cast is super important for many in the fanbase. Classic will still be around in merchandise and supplementary material, of course, so don't ever expect him to go away completely. I'd love to be wrong about this one, being perfectly honest, but all signs are pointing to this being the case.
I have heard from that this point on, that they're going back to 2D and 3D gameplay being the sole dimensions in their respective games, which is an extremely good thing. The past 15 or so years has had Sonic Team's games all be a hybrid of the two, but in that execution, they have realized neither dimension has been able to be used to it's full potential, so instead of trying to make people happy with one title that pleases no one, they're making two.
NEW SONIC COLLECTION:
I don't know exactly what's in it, but will be a celebration of 30 years of the blue blur, with games that haven't been in circulation in many years. Sonic Advance, Pocket Adventure and Sonic R all seem like likely inclusions here. Sonic Team/M2 are likely making this in tandem. If I were a betting man, I'd say this one will release in June.
This will NOT include the remakes of Sonic 1&2, by the way. I'd expect the M2 versions to be the ones included, instead. Sonic 3 will also NOT be included
NEW SONIC & MARIO OLYMPICS:
in development, but considering how the pandemic has fucked everything Olympics related, the IOC internally scrambling over a potential cancellation of the Summer Games, and the extremely controversial nature of China holding next year's Winter Games, there's a very good chance that this one may be cancelled altogether. I also strongly believe SEGA and Nintendo want no part in this controversy. It'll all hinge on how this pandemic and the situation with China shakes out in the next few months. I'm 50/50 on this one happening, at the moment.
NEW 2D SONIC:
This is the one I've heard the least about. Iizuka alluded to this one last year, but I would bet money that this is coming rather soon, as well. It's a game with the modern cast, so I think a return to Sonic Advance/Rush formula is what we're getting here. Summer-Fall is pretty much certain. Who's developing it? I'm not sure, to be perfectly honest, but I have a hunch that Dimps is developing this title, as their schedule is strangely empty at the moment. I know they're a controversial developer among many Sonic fans, but I would blame their weaker titles on SEGA's lack of oversight rather than Dimps, themselves. They're an extremely talented and diverse developer in the variety of games they make, so i'm confident in that they can make a great Sonic game again, if it is them developing.
NEW 3D SONIC:
Okay, so this is the big one. This is a make or break title for a lot of people, and it's easy to understand why. I'll do the best I can to elaborate on what I've heard.
What I know:
-It is NOT a boost game. SEGA has realized that they've done all they can with that formula, so this is allegedly a return to more of an Adventure/traditional platformer, which is seen as having much more long term potential.
-Full 3D, no hybrid nonsense here.
-Features return of the spin dash in 3D and character upgrades.
-There are more playable characters than just Sonic, but I wasn't given specifics as to who those were. Tails/Knuckles/Shadow all seem like valid possibilities.
It'll be the first game conceptualized by the "Sonic Pillar" in the US.
-SEGA CS2 R&D has had a number of new hires, post Forces, so a number of the devs involved are brand new to the series. "Sonic Team" is literally nothing more than just a brand name now. No idea if it'll be in the marketing or not.
-The game will be cross-gen, should be on every console under the sun, and a Holiday 2021 release is still on track, last I heard. However, given the very obvious circumstances going on around the world, there is still a chance it may slip into 2022. They're willing to give this game all the time it needs.
-This game is a NOT a tie-in to the movies at all. Paramount is doing their own thing with Sonic.
CAMEOS:
Sonic will apparently appear as a guest in a bunch of games coming this year, Puyo Puyo Tetris 2 being the first game of this year's big push. I don't know what the other games are, but I have a prediction that one of them will be a guest appearance in SEGA's new Super Monkey Ball game, that series will celebrate it's 20th anniversary this year, so expect a pretty big push for that one, as well.
REVEAL PERIOD:
One last tidbit I have, is that they are planning some sort of game reveal as we speak, it should be a digital presentation, similar to what was planned last year. Although, given the tenuous state of things, a press release drop is also a possibility. My guess is that this will air from between the next few weeks and the end of March, and should go over at least a good bit of what I laid out today. We seem due for a reveal here pretty soon, so i'm of the belief that we may be mere days away from something substantial.

TENNIS IS GETTIN GOOOOOOOD, and that kinda means more hedging and squinting from me. These are some really high quality affairs with real tour implications for some of the underdogs if they're able to win. Hard to predict, and from a betting standpoint the tournament should probably be almost over for you. Once players have won a couple rounds, oddsmakers are pricing things very well, and since everyone is playing near their peak margins are very thing. Ladies first today.
Barty Rogers : Well, I owe Ash Barty an apology of sorts. The lack of aggression that I thought would be her poison against Alexandrova was adjusted well, and while she didn’t go for winners she did keep the ball extremely low over the net for the entire match in a much contrasting style to the loopy forehands that she’d employed against some of her previous opponents. She went almost exclusively crosscourt with her forehand and used the backhand slice to draw Alexandrova into the court and challenge the big hitters footwork. It worked, as Alexandrova got locked into long rallies and, despite bright points, found herself making a ton of simple errors. Her backhand left her, she was unable to convert her forehand down the line despite it being her best shot heading into this match, and her first serve all but disappeared. She was up a break and leading in both sets, but it never looked like she had a chance. When she did attempt to play a slice or an off-speed ball, Barty hit a winner every single time.
Rogers is lucky that she had the time to realize she was going to win her match. She struggled with comfort in the rallies early and when she had simple balls to end rallies she made some anxious errors, but there was plenty of time in this. Kontaveit was not sharp in this event and Rogers is playing her best. On the tour, form is most of who wins and Rogers has had a great end to 2020 and a good start to 2021. Where Alexandrova made errors, I think since Rogers plays a more conservative approach she’ll be ok. Barty is still a ridiculously difficult defensive test though, and the same extra balls she made Alexandrova play to earn errors will give Shelby trouble since this is new territory for her as far as the round of play. It’s easy to just pick Barty, but that is what I think I have to do. It was evident early in the match that although Alexandrova had the bigger offense, the amount of work she’d have to do with it would require an amazing performance. I expect Rogers to hang more in rallies, but struggle to find her way out of them. Barty in 2 close sets.
Mertens Muchova : Mertens continues to roll, dispatching Bencic in two pretty comfortable sets. Muchova had a really close match with Pliskova despite winning in straights. She was up and down a break in the first set, finding a hold late to close out. In the second Pliskova found a better gear in the rallies and went up 5-0, and then, something happened. It’s hard to say what, but outwardly it was double faults. Muchova simply hits the ball too solid and to too many open spaces for Pliskova to deal with, and as a result Pliskova never felt safe hitting normal rally balls. She went bigger than she had to, and established no rhythm. Muchova then managed to save some break points at 4-5, and from there it just seemed like Pliskova was mentally defeated. Matches between compatriots can often have funky results, and this definitely was one.
In previous rounds Muchova’s ability in the rally made her a clear favorite. Ostapenko, Pliskova, Barthel are all offensive talents, and Muchova’s defense and power just made it simple for her to win points and difficult for them to manufacture them without errors. Against Mertens, the equation changes. Mertens is very good at redirecting the ball, and won’t make really any of the errors Muchova’s previous opponents did. Muchova made some errors on her backhand wing in the last round, and struggled to hold serve. I think that will continue here, and Mertens will get one step closer returning serves as the match goes on earning her some break point chances. Mertens in 2.
Vekic Brady : Sneaky sneaky. Down and out of this one, Vekic found her best game. Vekic and Kanepi played a really high level offensive contest, with a lot of rallies being played from deep behind the baseline and with both players on the run constantly. Kanepi’s serve was a big weapon for cheap points, but Vekic’s earned her more simple balls to hit. Her power has really dragged her through this draw, and for a former title winner who has struggled to find that form again she becomes a dangerous player at this point in the tournament. Brady had a pretty easy match, but handled it the way you need to when this is the case.
Vekic is going to be the sharper player coming in. Playing Pliskova, Kanepi, and Podoroska really involves a lot of big hitting and defending. As a result, there’s a good chance that she is a bit more resilient in rallies than Brady will expect. It’s easy to get frustrated and cough up errors when your opponent is returning the ball with depth when you expect them to float up an easy one. Beating Kanepi means Vekic can win this match as well, even though Brady’s offensive ability on the forehand side and defensive ability at the baseline mean it won’t be easy. Brady is a clear favorite here for the simple reason that Vekic is not “supposed” to be here, but deep in an event it is easy to forget the past and focus on the task on court. I’m really not sure who will be more able to earn errors here, but I suspect Brady will close it out where Kanepi faltered, as she’s been improving all of last year and seems very sharp here despite having not really played a tough test. What scares me, and I’m aware I’m going back and forth, is the simple way Li ended Brady’s run the previous week. I wouldn’t feel comfortable backing Brady, but I think she should win. Brady in 3.
Pegula Svitolina : There just are no easy matches at this point, and the way I felt trepidatious about picking a winner in the last match is similar here. Pegula beat Mladenovic from start to finish. She’s really consistent from the baseline right now and continues to serve great. Svitolina had a similarly dominant win against a tough defensive test in Putintseva. Putintseva started early with the moonballs and pushmode and never got out of it. Svitolina hit her backhand clean and in a very measured fashion in this one, working the points patiently. It was a testament to her quality, but more so to her dominance against Putintseva. When you know you’re going to outlast your opponent, playing long rallies almost becomes a joy. You’re thinking while the other person is working. Pegula almost has the offense to beat Svitolina. She almost has the defense too. I don’t see a lot to separate these two, and their recent match in Abu Dhabi was won by Svitolina but in two single break sets so it’s tough to say the upset isn’t possible. Pegula seems better this week than in Abu Dhabi, with many players just kinda getting matches in at that event and not really pressing yet. I think she reverses some portion of the result, and after playing Putintseva Svitolina will take some time to adjust to someone playing actual offense. If Pegula is able to serve well, she may cause an upset, but it would be a monumental win since Svitolina is so fast, so consistent, and just won the matchup. Svitolina in 3.
I’m aware even as I write these things that it seems unfair to play both sides. “SHE MIGHT WIN, BUT ALSO SHE MIGHT LOSE!” is not a hot take, but I generally think it’s better to be honest about uncertainty and at this stage in the tournament everyone is playing so well that the margins are extra thin unless you’re Ash Barty who is the golden potato of success and shall never be doubted again long may she reign also did she get taller somehow?
Hsieh Voundrousova : Finally, the Hsieh Errani match is over. These two traded 7 straight breaks to open the match, and did not stop there. Hsieh had little to no way to end rallies against Sara’s speed, and Errani’s serve completely left her. After being up 5-2 in the final set, Errani didn’t win another game. It was a bittersweet result after being on the court for so many grinding rallies, but the better player won as far as the tournament goes. Hsieh will be better recovered for this next round against Voundrousova, and will have a better chance ot not simply being run senseless by the talented lefty. Voundrousova placed Cirstea immediately into her own personal jail cell in their match. Cirstea was in control of every rally, but Voundrousova kept the ball within a foot of the baseline on so many offerings. It looked like Cirstea would find her resolve in the second set, but all she found were more forehand errors down the line and more backhands into the net. It is a real phenomenon in tennis that when one players establishes they’re intent on hanging in the rallies forever, the other starts making mistakes. With the edges being so small, it seems that often (sadly) the player trying to play offense ends up losing. Cirstea will be back, but for now, she simply was unwilling to believe that she could tolerate the long rallies and still win the match.
Voundrousova is a much better Errani. Hsieh has great defense, and her variety will certainly make her an equal proposition against Voudrousova’s dropshot heavy offense, but I think that Voundrousova’s defending is a cut above Errani and Hsieh’s serve really faltered last round. This could close as Hsieh just beat her in Abu Dhabi, but Voundrousova is playing significantly better here and Hsieh has already been through some emotional wars. Voundrousova in 2.
Muguruza Osaka : Yay! Muguruza has been at her best here. Consistent and ultra-focused on defensive play. Diyas had not much chance. Similarly, Jabeur didn’t really have enough offense to hit through Osaka. Plot twist: no one does. Osaka has been winning majors because her mobility and defending on the baseline are something that creates no easy way to win points. She cuts off angles and plays the ball heavy and flat down the middle of the court and honestly it takes multiple shots from there to even produce the opportunity to hit the shot that got you pinned by Osaka’s return in the first place. It’s a difficult cycle, and the best path to beating Osaka right now is something that Muguruza will do, which is slowing things down and making it a shot-for-shot affair, rather than a frenzied trade at the baseline. Muguruza will look to construct points intelligently and to take time between them. The only chance (barring a blowup) that players have to beat Osaka in a major seems to be building pressure. Naomi still is prone to strings of errors when she misses a shot. There’s a general “I’d better go safe I just missed” reflex in most athletes and going safe generally means unintended deceleration on your swing which creates the next error. This is storytime though, and I don’t expect random strings of errors to net Muguruza more than a set. She’s playing her best, but I don’t expect it to beat Osaka’s best. Osaka in 2.
Sabalenka Williams : Match of the day! Sabalenka beat Li in such an impressive fashion, and I’m starting to get my hopes up that this is the year she breaks through in a major. She hits the hardest of anyone on tour, and has one of the best serves seen in a long time. The backhand down the line is a beautiful controlled swing, and the best thing about Sabalenka is that her movement doesn’t at all match her height. She covers the court beautifully, and her belief in herself isn’t deluded at all, but rooted more in a desire to compete and win. That’ll get you real far on tour, as her opponent can attest to.
Serena is one of the first players on tour to wear a catsuit, and Feliciano Lopez has been spotted in the stands eyeing the attire and stroking his nonexistent beard. Things to come, Catsuit Feli? Possibly. Serena looked her best coming into this event, and then the Potapova match happened. The same defensive struggles that she’d exhibited post-pregnancy were back, and it made me think I may have put too much emphasis on her slight bit of extra weight being tied to her errors. She’s lost the weight, but that first set was rough. On the bright side, when she had to fight at the end of the first set, she really was amazing. When she competes she gets such a singular focus it really is great to watch. The second set was better quality, as it always is when she plays. The question is, how does she neutralize Sabalenka’s offense. Serena can serve aces. She can put balls away when she has control, and she can attack second serves and break. Can she defend though? Ann Li is quick. Ann Li redirects the ball well, and attacks second serves. Ann Li is not Serena, but she was soundly beaten for two sets.
In sport sometimes (all the time) I get fooled. Sometimes Nadal looks sloppy and then comes out and rolls Novak in the French. Sometimes Federer goes 5 in the first round with the world #140 and then doesn’t drop a set the rest of the way. It’s possible that Serena was not really concerned about Potapova winning the match, and had a gameplan, and also that she will play excellent today. This is necessary though as much as it is a possibility. She’s making great strides back to her best form, but the tour has been improving during this period as well. Having a full crowd would be a huge boost to Serena as well, and it may be hard to rattle Aryna without that noise. Sabalenka in 2.
Swiatek Halep : Swiatek is just great to watch, and this is a contest that makes me happy. The WTA really is in great shape right now because honestly most of the players left in the event could win the tournament. Halep struggled against Tomljanovic but the next round she cleaned up those errors. She was aggressive and played her usual overwhelming game against Kudermetova. Kudermetova struggled in this one, and was pretty awful in the first set. She found more range in the second, but it seemed like she really was in a nightmare of errors and Halep’s pressure never allowed her to really have a moment to put things back together. Iga and Halep is a close match, because while Iga is likely to be the future, her best results have been on clay. She had a great run on hardcourt in the AO a few years back, but that was prior to her injury and she has struggled since then. Halep is hard to predict. The bookmakers have lent a helping hand here by making this match a pickem. Normally I’d say that points towards Swiatek but she’s such a recent major winner that her name is a big market. I would say that in this case, the pickem line is a real indicator of the tightness of this contest. Swiatek should start winning this match at some point in the future, but is it now? Halep was sharp against Kudermetova but had trouble when Kudermetova started to keep the ball in the court. I think it’ll be tough for Iga to score, and her errors will keep this close. I stil like her upside, and think Halep will play her into form at some point even if she struggles early. Swiatek in 3.
Djokovic Raonic : What in the fudge was that Fritz Novak match. After acquitting himself nicely in the first two sets, Fritz seemed on his way to a respectable L. I began to think that maybe Novak bought some stock in the USTA as he’d spent two rounds playing friendly with Tiafoe and Fritz. The the weirdness happened. Novak suddenly couldn’t hit the court. Simple balls, he hit almost predictably into the net. He had slow volleys into the open court and hit the net. He began guessing on all of Fritz shots and chose wrong on all of them. He double faulted. Something was wrong after a fall in the third set, and he spent a lot of time twisting and flexing, which made me think it was some residual neck or back stiffness. He would later tell the media he tore a muscle on his right side, but he’s struggled with back and neck issues in the past.
Down 2 sets to 1 against Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz was listed as even odds to win the match. You will never see anyone down 2 sets to 1 and even to win the match against a market like Djokovic, except Nadal at the French possibly. For a random 250 level guy like Fritz to be so was a clear indication that Novak’s physical hinderance was a nail in the coffin. Then the magic happened. The match was suspended while they asked the crowd to leave the stadium. Sure they warned the players they’d be taking a pause to clear everyone out. Sure they kinda made sense by sending them off-court so the crowd would know they weren’t going to continue play until they left. But wow did Novak return to the court almost completely recovered as far as his play and movement. They said Novak was not allowed to receive any medical treatment during the break. So what happened? Did whatever painkillers he took kick in? It is unlikely that he’d be able to compete as well as he did with a serious back/muscle issue even with painkillers. The stiffness and sharpness of pain generally remains. Did the muscle relaxers kick in? That’s a possibility. Did he stretch and miraculously recover? Unlikely, as he wasn’t really working on any stretching or rehabilitation work during changeovers and breaks. I’m not complaining, but the break came as he was pretty much completely finished, and benefitted him greatly as he was able to physically compete when they came back. What was great to see actual as Novak went crippled godmode and roped the ball down both lines over and over on every shot was Fritz competing so hard and playing such good defense. He is a mush and it was great to see him finally fight his way to his best level. Both him and Tiafoe benefitted greatly from their time on the court with one of the best players of all time.
The question now, and there are nothing but questions, is how will he recover to play Raonic. The odds have opened at -190 +160 for Novak/Milos, and this is a pretty clear indication that they either don’t expect the match to happen, or expect it to happen with Novak in a pretty hampered form. Within the match, I can see how Novak might want to play through and see what treatment was available. If it’s the same story going in though, and with many rounds left to play, I don’t see his team allowing him to play and risking furthering the injury. This is likely going to be a Raonic win, and the only caveat is that Djokovic has been injured, completely finished, and obviously going to lose in many situations and tournaments already. He has found miraculous 3rd set comebacks and as many pointed out in the 4th set while he looked sunk “he’s always like this, haven’t you learned?” I’ve learned that I cannot learn. Raonic, who is currently dressed like a guy who stole an old lady’s clothes off her clothesline because he wound up trapped outside naked in a bad comedy movie, by forfeit.
Lajovic Zverev : Hmm. Lajovic was struggling to gain control of points against Martinez, and eventually decided on outlasting him as a strategy. It worked, as Martinez played a number of lovely points but couldn’t find his way out of rallies. A great result for him, and since clay is his best surface this is just a super bonus that allows him to stay on tour all year. Zverev never really struggled against Mannarino. Mannarino was laughing to his team about the height of Zverev’s serve, and he was wholly overwhelmed by the power. It’s hard to say it, but Zverev is starting to look dominant against a lot of the tour in these 3/5 situations. He also won back to back tournaments towards the end of last year, and made the finals of a major. He is a spindly dillhole, but he’s good at the tennis. Lajovic is a step up from Mannarino in terms of ballstriking, but is a similar level of ineffective at hitting outright winners. I’m underthinking this, but Lajovic doesn’t have a clear way to win other than “hang in rallies and hope for errors or fatigue.” Zverev in 3.
Thiem Dimitrov : Well shoot. Thiem and Kyrgios was a classic. The crowd was almost exhausted themselves by the 5th set, and the announcers were excited as well. Thiem looked rattled by the crowd for at least half of this match, and didn’t hit the ball well for those portions. The crowd was loud, and Kyrgios was solid. There is something aggravating about imploring the crowd to make noise and celebrate, and then employing the best friend tactics by saying “too good” to the guy you are actively trying to mess with. The fake underhand serve directly into the normal service motion is one of those things that, while not illegal, is a grimey move. Kyrgios is a classic attention-seeker though, so he can’t help trying to play both sides. “I need them to like me, but I also want you to like me” is the vibe regarding the crowd/box and his opponent.
That aside, and his usual immediate non-sequitur bitching to the umpire whenever the tennis doesn’t go his way, he played a good match. He lost because, well, he doesn’t often play good matches. The same way Kokkinakis lost because he couldn’t physically compete by the 5th set, Kyrgios lost because he hasn’t played enough serious tennis to believe that he could hang in rallies. Fatigue is obviously a factor as well, but for a guy who moves as well as he does, training can eclipse that kind of fatigue. He could have won majors if he took it seriously, but he’ll still be a great entertainer and I’ll admit he does cringey things but I do enjoy watching a bit of drama. As it stands these guys have passed him by, and Thiem’s silent comeback was well deserved as he dealt with nonstop cheering of his errors and faults and heckling and Kyrgios even did his own passive-aggressive brand of trash-talking. I would point to the same premature celebration that Tiafoe had as an issue here with Kyrgios as well. There were so many big points for him that it seemed at times he was emotionally drained and looking to drum up crowd support or things to take issue with so he could compete. You gotta manage your physical reserves as well as your emotional ones, and he was in it for a sprint not for a marathon.
Dimitrov was scary good for a set against PCB, who had to retire with an abdominal issue. I really have not seen anything from Dimitrov so far that says he can’t win this match. He’s serving incredibly well, smoking his backhand, and he seems focused. The problem is now that he’s playing a guy who’s very similar but with more experience winning at this stage, a better backhand, and more power in general. This is a shootout that Dimitrov will need Thiem to start slow in to have a chance. Thiem’s defending is just as good if not better than Dimitrov’s, and while people think both are cute, Thiem’s instagram comments include significantly more marriage proposals and demands to “treat me like a baby otter and hold me while i sleep” (I counted two of these it must be a thing). Dimitrov’s serving is a bit better than Thiem’s right now. Thiem’s 5 setter makes him significantly more fatigued than Dimitrov, but his training is such that he’ll likely be at his best for some large chunk of this. Thiem can often be a slow starter, which gives the Dimitrov we saw early against PCB a shot, but producing that sort of winning tennis across a match will be Dimitrov’s biggest challenge in quite some time. I’m not comfortable backing Thiem to achieve any specific result here, but it’s hard to say he shouldn’t win. Thiem in 4-5.
Auger-Aliassime Karatsev : Auger-Aliassime got a nice gift from Shapo, who found errors late in sets over and over. Shapovalov was feeling pressure, and the look on his face made it seem like he always was fighting the “WHAT IF YOU LOST” thoughts that had to have been flying through his spacious head at a rapid rate. That brings up a very interesting clash against a guy who played the best match of offensive tennis I have seen since watching the tour. If you can find a replay, watch the Karatsev Schwartzman match. Aslan Karatsev hit 50 winners in 3 sets, and there was not a single point when he did not simply outclass Diego. He faced break points and served ace after ace, and when he had a ball to hit or the open court, he smoked it right past Diego. It is extremely rare that Schwartzman doesn’t get his racquet on the ball, and the offense Karatsev produced was surprising even after watching him produce it. I can’t say enough about how well he’s playing, and Gerasimov’s relative surrender makes a lot more sense now.
FAA is a different test than Diego, but wow have the odds for this one plummeted. After opening at -274, FAA now sits at -180. This means huge amounts of money are pouring in on Karatsev. So can he win? Sure, and in a 2/3 structure I think he is a favorite, but the 3/5 and FAA’s current form and coming off an easy win against Shapo makes this interesting. Karatsev’s level against Diego can beat anyone. I really mean that. There is a level of offense where the opponent does not matter. The issue here is that FAA brings his own offense in, and since Diego was unable to really get deep into rallies with Karatsev, We haven’t really seen his stamina tested. If FAA is able to win a set, that’s an extra set of offense Karatsev needs. If FAA is able to return serve well, these are extra balls that Karatsev has to play. He is in no way suspect, and it isn’t likely after 3 rounds of immaculate play that his offense will just disappear, but we haven’t seen the errors that have populated his play in the past yet. FAA is fast and deals well with power. This is a completely even match in my head, which says a ton about Karatsev. FAA struggling with Gerasimov last week is a similar thing to what might happen here. For bettors though, after a line move like that, you’re kinda getting in late if you’re backing Karatsev to win outright, and major line movements don’t always mean you’re right. Often the public is quick to jump on a “LOCK!” and everyone floods their money in as if they know something the book doesn’t. I actually felt that FAA opening at the same price as Diego was somewhat interesting, and I don’t often see that with a surging underdog on tour. Generally you’ll see a -274 +224, -200 +170, -160 +140 gradual type regression. Still, interesting numbers aside, this is a close match because Karatsev is relatively fresh, and Schwartzman is the best outside the big 3 at deflating offensive talents. I think he gets the job done here unless we see a huge regression to the mean. The problem will really be breaking FAA’s serve, since lower ranked player tend not to be the most adept returners and FAA is a wayyyyyy better server and offensive player than Diego. Karatsev in 5 if his stamina holds up.
Rublev Ruud : Rublev just keeps rolling. Lopez’ serve was negated, and with a very winnable match here against Ruud, the Rublev Medvedev clash seems likely. Ruud struggled but found the win against Albot. It took a really long time and a ton of rallies. Rallies that Rublev will end. Rublev in 3.
McDonald Medvedev : Great run for McDonald. It’s gotta end sometime though, and this will be a fun contest since he’s so solid and aggressive from the baseline, but Medvedev is just a defender you can’t hit through. I thought Krajinovic had a chance after watching the early parts of the first set, because simply put, the guy trains with Djokovic and is one of the best counterpunchers on the baseline that the tour has. He’s perfect to play against Medvedev. Medvedev blinked too, but his serve is just too big a weapon for him to lose these difficult matches. As it gets late, he gets the easier holds. He will against Mackie also. Medvedev in 3.
Tsitsipas Berretini : Cover me I’m going in. Tsitsipas backed up his struggle against Kokkinakis with a sound dispatching of Ymer. It reminded me of the Mutombo “uh uh uh” finger wagging. Just because the guy struggles at times under pressure doesn’t mean he’s prone to upsets. A great win to get back on track, and he’ll need it as Berretini is playing great ball. There were two weapons in the Khachanov Berretini match. Berretini’s forehand, and Berretini’s dropshots. This combo makes it so incredibly difficult to defend once Berretini gets inside the baseline. He doesn’t hit the bailout “I want the rally to end” dropshots that others on tour do, they are really well done and generally go untouched. The forehand is crazy. He hits the ball so fast that Khachanov who is a great defender really looked in desperation mode. He spent a lot of time just redirecting the ball and it was a good strategy but he didn’t end up with clear ways to win points. When it came time for tiebreakers, Berretini just played better. Khachanov had netcords fly past him when he was in positon for a volley, and just really everything that could go bad did. Still, Berretini’s play was backed up even better by how well he served at times. When he had a set point, he served an ace. Simple, effective.
I liked what I saw from Berretini enough that I disagree with the -380 price tag of Tsitsipas. I’m not sure how Tsitsipas will fare against a significant offensive talent, and although Berretini’s backhand is a huge liability, his ability to get it low may give Tsitsipas ample opportunity to make backhand errors. What I think the trouble here for Tsitsipas may prove to be is the same as Khachanov faced. As the sets get deep, it starts to be clear that Berretini is going to play his offense on all the big points, and it can take the racquet out of your hands. It’s rare on tour for such a great server to also have a huge forehand, and Berretini is not really going to be uncomfortable with his opponent or with the situation. These two have played a number of times, with Tsitsipas dominating their past matches and Berretini winning the most recent one (although it was a UTR exhibition). Tsitsipas has had similar clashes against servers wind up deep, and although he has a bright future, and can play a perfect set of tennis, this is not a dominant matchup, but a shootout. Picture Berretini getting to the same 5th set against Tsitsipas. Do you see Tsitsipas pulling it off? Will Berretini be exhausted? Will he struggle to win rallies once he gets control? I’ve overestimated his chances before against guys like Federer and Nadal, but I don’t think Tsitsipas is there just yet. If, on the other hand, Tsitsipas is able to dispatch Berretini in a simple manner, then he has a real chance to defeat Fognini in the next round. I’m leaning into the upset. Berretini in 4.
Fognini Nadal : I wanna say it and so do you. This is not the guy who you want to see playing Nadal. De Minaur was in full “I wanna go fast!” mode against Fognini. He kept playing the ball back quickly and down the middle and he kept waiting to get rewarded by Fognini errors. They came, but not on the break points, and Fognini proved that his wins against Caruso and Herbert were not flukes and that when he’s focused he can win. Although bookmakers lines are prices for expected investment, not lines, De Minaur was sat at -500 against Fognini and Nadal is only -600. Nadal is the largest market in tennis year after year. People feel extremely comfortable in backing him at absurd prices because, simply put, he is a machine. He plays every single point well, and he gets better as a match goes on without starting it at a mediocre level. Fognini may not be a winner here, but he has earned some significant respect by only sitting at +450 (or whatever the devilish books have gouged +600 down to on your site). There is a good reason for the somewhat careful price. Fognini is rarely motivated, but has turned in some of his best performances against Nadal. Nadal is probably the greatest competitor we have seen (RIP my inbox), but these are very fast courts and he did have some woes against Norrie. If you’ve read my articles in the past, you know I very admittedly fall for Nadal’s slumps and Federer’s, and bet against them once per event. Is this that round?
Fognini hitting through De Minaur means, despite his early errors, that he is cranking the ball at a solid pace, and defending well. His backhand is solid, and his forehand is easy power. He is supremely skillful, and he can make a game of it with Nadal. Downsides are clear. Nadal happens to be Nadal. Fognini is a child inside a conceited man’s body, and gives up when things don’t go his way. He is inconsistent, and his carefree play means he will make errors in spots where he shouldn’t. I’d be wary of backing Nadal here, but he should still win. Nadal in 4-5 (RIP my second super secret inbox).

Should you buy Amazon stock or has it run out of growth opportunities? What is my price prediction for Amazon? Read until the end of the post as I reveal my price target for Amazon and why I believe it can deliver insane returns!
~Warning! Very Very Long Post~
[Disclosure: I made this DD 2 weeks ago & I wasn't part of this Subreddit until the last few days]
[Wanted to post this before the next Amazon earnings later tonight!]
Hello everyone and welcome to another stock price prediction! Today we are going to talk about Amazon and what’s the upside for the company! So, let’s go over the company a little before moving on to some fundamental, technical analysis, predictions and my price target for the stock in the next years & months.
So, let’s start by talking a little about Amazon, yeah, I know it’s one of the biggest companies in the world, but I believe Amazon is still undervalued & underappreciated compared to some of the highflyers that have generate insane returns in the past months, though most of them are still far from profitability and don’t have the growth across all the board like Amazon.
Maybe the market doesn't put as much attention in the numbers as I do but I would rather invest in a business which I consider to be healthy and growing rather than a what if stock like many of the recent inflated IPOs. Amazon is a trillion-dollar company growing at a double-digit pace as many companies that are a fraction of their size would kill for this numbers, but this hasn’t helped Amazon since September.
On a global scale e-commerce is expected to increase from 16% to 22% of retail sales by 2023. With the U.S. expected to increase its retail e-commerce sales from $374 billion to $476 billion by 2024.This is another thing that supports the growth that e-commerce has in front of it, both as total and as a % of the total retail sales. With the latest report showing a 24% increase in holiday e-commerce transactions and a 19% increase for the 2020 fiscal year.
E-commerce is showing signs that it will continue to gain share of the total market as a recent report projects that digital sales during the Black Friday-to-Cyber Monday period will grow by about 35% YOY, reaching penetration of around 32% and growing by more 10B, as this continues to eat up market share from more traditional B&M retailers.
I think one of the biggest problems the company has, it’s the actual share price of the company, not the value. We have seen that a stock split can and will attract more buyers and the share price would probably see an accelerated rate of growth, just look at what happened with Tesla and Apple recently. By splitting the stock just like Apple has done a number of times, this allows more individual investors to invest in the company, as they will be attracted by the cheaper share price. Amazon hasn’t done a share split since the dot com era, and it might be time for the company to take advantage of this hot bull market to actually go ahead with something like at least a 5-10:1 split.
So, let’s go a little through the latest quarter results and guidance. The company increased the operating cash flow by more than 55% to over $55B for the latest twelve months, with free cash flow also increasing by $6B, while they managed to avoid significant dilution of the company, with only 7M additional shares being outstanding.
The net sales also increased 37% in the last quarter to just over $96B, an increase of more than $26B over 2019, which is an insane 36% increase y/y yet again.
This year Amazon has also pushed their Prime Day ahead of schedule, which resulted in the two biggest days ever for third-party small & medium sellers, which saw an increase in sales of over 60% over 2019, even bigger than Amazon own retail business.
Amazon continues to expand into multiple revenue streams, with the first Amazon Fresh grocery store opened in California, which is offering both in-store and online products.
We also saw Amazon’s more profitable revenue streams meaning the services revenues increasing, with Amazon Studios continuing to produce original movies and TV-series while also expanding their offering to live sport games.
The company is also seeking to expand into the red-hot Video Gaming market, as they launched a new service Prime Gaming, available for free for Prime Members and also announced Luna which will be a cloud gaming service that will allow customers to play high-quality games on previously owned devices, thus not requiring bigger investments for many customers. They also continued to improve their devices like the Echo, Alexa, Ring and FireTV line of products, which feature more & more AI Improvements.
Amazon has also announced an expansion into the pharmacy business which put a lot of pressure on traditional pharmacy companies like CVS & Walgreens, while also announcing a new Halo service, aimed at helping customers improve their lifestyle.
I like companies that make me a lot of money, but I also like that they are involved in projects aimed at helping poorer communities around the world, with their latest Project Kuiper, being a low-earth orbit satellite constellation that is aiming to provide reliable & cheap internet access around the world.
And last but not least, let’s not forget about the biggest income provider as margin goes, the Amazon Web Services (AWS). Amazon continued to see significant customer demand for this product with multiple big companies like Global Payments & Moderna using their services. Alongside these 2 companies we also saw AWS providing even more data services for the NFL and many more other companies. AWS has been a terrific revenue stream for Amazon, with AWS having 1/3 of the market share for cloud infrastructure in the first half of 2020, as the compound annual growth of AWS has been 40% in the recent years, just below the other profitable services they offer on subscriptions services, advertising & payments, with the only revenue stream seeing a negative growth being the physical stores.
Overall, the company has seen a 28% compound annual growth in revenues since 2016 and an even bigger 68% growth in earnings/share, which is incredible to say the least.
So, before even starting, you should now that I am bull on Amazon but I am willing to hear other opinions so don’t be afraid to leave a comment down below!
I have made some predictions based on the growth rate of the company, the latest plans announced by them and used some estimates. So, keep in mind this are only projections and are calculated by myself, this is not an investment advice and you should do your own research and so on…
Firstly, let’s start with the Guidance that Amazon gave us for the 4th quarter, as they are expecting net sales between $112B and $121B implying a growth of between 28-38% over 2019. They also provided guidance for the operating income but this is heavily impacted by the problems we had in 2020 and that still continue to be around.
The company also is aiming to optimize the free cash flow which was up 26% y/y for Q3, as they are trying to dilute the shares as little as possible. The total net SALES for the last twelve months is nearing $348B which even adjusted for forex is still up 31%. Amazon has only 12% of their revenues coming the AWS right now, but this is by far the most profitable revenue for the company, as the increases in AWS sales have led to an over 90% increase in operating income from the previous year.
Let’s take a look at the last quarter’s results. We saw a big INCREASE in all 3 big revenue streams for Amazon, with the first 9 months of 2020 brining over $160B in sales in North America, $67B from International sales and almost $33B from AWS. For my projections I actually just added another quarter like this one to the end results, which actually is a conservative estimate of $96B compared to the guidance of $112B, and the growth rate that Amazon’s net sales has seen in the past year, with North America Sales rising by 37%, International by 31% and AWS by 30%.
For the cost of sales, I did pretty much the same, and with cost margin standing at 75% of net sales for the last quarters I think this is pretty safe to say it will remain mostly the same if not even improve due to bigger revenues from the AWS. I also estimated the full yearly costs by adding another identical quarter, just like for the revenues, so that things stay even.
For the other operating expenses, I also took this from their financials as I expect both SG&A and R&D expenses to start to normalize a little after the huge spending to ramp up capacity this year due to the increase in demand, while I also did the same thing for the Capex spending of Amazon, as they have invested massively in the last 12 months to ramp up things.
Meanwhile for the interest income and expenses I also just averaged things out for the full year while maintaining the other sources of income, but these have such a small impact that they don’t even matter.
Amazon has had a pretty wild effective TAX RATE in the past decade, but I decided to see what the avg was for the last 4years, and that was 16%, but for safety and due to the change in administration in the US I decided to bump this up a little to 18%.
And one last number that is important is THE earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, which has seen a 36% increase y/y for since 2016.
I like to value companies based on multiples of future price earnings. So, let’s take a look at what Amazon earnings/share will be by 2025.
I implied for the 3 main streams of revenues which are North American Sales, International Sales and AWS sales a rate of growth similar to the one we had this year but with gradual declines each subsequent year. I also used pretty much the same average cost of sales which includes the actual cost of sales and the fulfillment costs. This has stood at about 75% of the net revenues for the past years and might actually improve, but I do want to stay on the safe side. So, by 2025 the gross REVENUES should reach around $244B, assuming margins stay pretty much in line, though it’s likely they will improve margins, with International sales becoming a little more profitable and AWS brining more & more money.
We also have to estimated what the Capex & Operating expenses would be by 2025. I think Amazon should see somewhat of a slowdown of Capex, R&D & SG&A spending, as they have seen a huge boost in the past year, and I think it should normalize, so I will imply an 8% annual growth for these, which is still very high.
Next, we look at the interest income, expense and other losses or incomes for the company. This numbers are small compared to the vast cash flows of the company that they can even be ignored, but let’s assume they see a 10% decrease both in income and expenses related to interest while also not suffering losses but having a smaller other income by 10%/year. This would results in an almost $114B income pre-tax for 2025.
As I showed you earlier, the effective tax rate for Amazon has been around 16% in the past 4 years, despite the nominal US tax rate. For safety reasons I will use an 18% tax rate, though this should stay closers to 16% on the back of the International taxes. So, with an 18% tax rate, the FINAL income for the company after everything has been taken into consideration should be $93.25B.
For the outstanding shares, I will be conservative and imply a .5% increase in outstanding shares, as the company has been very careful in avoiding the dilution of the stock. So, with that increase by 2025, we should have around 531M shares.
So, BASED on Price to Future Earnings/share we can see Amazon is currently trading at almost 18 times 2025 earnings/share, which compared to the 90 multiple it’s trading right now would be insanely low. I can see Amazon continuing to trade at very high P/E for the foreseeable future. So, with a 25 PE price the company should trade at 4400$, while with a 50 PE ratio, the stock should be close to 9000$/share, which is insane when you think about that number, but maybe Bezos will listen and split the shares finally.
So, after all these estimates what are my price targets? HERE are my actual price targets… I think the bear case 2025 price we can see Amazon trade at is $4828 which would imply a return of over 54%, while my base case and my pretty safe assumption is that Amazon will trade at 6145$/share by the end of 2025, implying a 96.5% return on the current price. My most bullish case though is $7900, which would imply a return of 152%, with that number being mind-blowing given the current valuation of the company… but I guess we do have to start getting used with such high numbers… I guess decades ago when we saw the first millionaire or billionaire, people would have also thought that it was crazy… but crazy is for the limited minds only I believe.
So yeah guys, here is my OVERALL price targets for 2025, my bear case is an average of the 25 & 30 PE ratio, while the normal case is the average between the 30 and 40 PE’s with the most bullish case valuing the company between a PE of 40-50.
So HERE is the full spreadsheet that I have projected for Amazon by 2025, if you do have another opinion or a suggestion please leave a comment down below, I think I have been conservative in most of my projections, but feel free to give your opinion.
Keep in mind, these targets might sound ridiculous, but just look at the growth Amazon has in the past. The company has increased in value by more 450% in just the past 5 years and is over 160.000% up since it started trading. So yes, the valuation is mad right now for the company. So, are you willing to bet against one of the biggest and fastest growing companies in the world?
The company also has pristine FINANCIALS, with more than $112B in current assets vs only $102B in current liabilities, with over $282B in total assets. So, the company is way more than solvable at any point in the near future.
And let’s also take a look at what the estimates are from the analysts. We can see that the analysts expect a similar EPS by 2025, of around $166 compared to $171/shares that my Growth Valuations are projecting. So, it seems that this could be a very reasonable upside for the company.
So, what do I expect in the next couple of days, weeks and months for Amazon?
Let’s look at this CHART, so starting with the high the stock made before the September sell-off. The stock has been trading in this wedge formation for the last couple of months with increasingly higher lows. The stock isn’t overbought and hasn’t been since it saw an RSI of 73 when it reached the all-time highs. I think with this wedge formation building up, with increasing higher lows and with the pattern of trading likely being an Elliot Theory 5 WAVE formation, I think it’s very likely we see a breakout in the near future, maybe just before earnings, and I expect this breakout to mimic the last run the stock had of about 23% up. So, with that 23% increase mirrored that would result the stock should peak around $3900, which I expect to see by the end of the year.
And let’s take a quick look at what 47 analysts on wall street are saying. They are mostly very bullish on the company with an average price target of $3800 and a high price target of $4600 which is insane for a return in the next 12 months, as 46 of the 47 analysts are either bullish or very bullish on Amazon. So yet again, the $3900 isn’t that out of possibilities even as Wall Street’s analysts expect
So, what would I do? Well, I own Amazon stock and I believe it still has tremendous room to grow, so I would start building a position as I expect the company to resume its uptrend sooner rather than later and the next catalyst may be just a couple of weeks away with the last quarter earnings expected to be announced early in February.
And I shouldn’t forget to mention that I believe Amazon is one of the most stable stocks out with very good leadership, and with large institutional holders like Vanguard, BlackRock and Morgan Stanley owning huge amounts of the company.
So, THIS are my projections and my expectations for the company, and if you do want to check out the spreadsheets you can find the link HERE
Thank you everyone for reading🙏 Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market! Have a great day and see you next time❗