The Russia Mafia is part and parcel of Russian intelligence. Russia is a mafia state. That is not a metaphor. Putin is head of the Mafia. So the fact that they have deep ties to Donald Trump is deeply disturbing. Trump conducted FIVE completely private meetings and conferences with Putin, and has gone to great lengths to prevent literally anyone, even people in his administration, from learning what was discussed.
According to an ex-KGB spy...Russia has been cultivating Trump as an asset for 40 years.
Trump was first compromised by the Russians in the 80s. In 1984, the Russian Mafia began to use Trump real estate to launder money.
In 1984, David Bogatin — a convicted Russian mobster and close ally of Semion Mogilevich, a major Russian mob boss — met with Trump in Trump Tower right after it opened. Bogatin bought five condos from Trump at that meeting. Those condos were later seized by the government, which claimed they were used to launder money for the Russian mob.
“During the ’80s and ’90s, we in the U.S. government repeatedly saw a pattern by which criminals would use condos and high-rises to launder money,” says Jonathan Winer, a deputy assistant secretary of state for international law enforcement in the Clinton administration. “It didn’t matter that you paid too much, because the real estate values would rise, and it was a way of turning dirty money into clean money. It was done very systematically, and it explained why there are so many high-rises where the units were sold but no one is living in them.”
When Trump Tower was built, as David Cay Johnston reports in The Making of Donald Trump, it was only the second high-rise in New York that accepted anonymous buyers.
In 1987, the Soviet ambassador to the United Nations, Yuri Dubinin, arranged for Trump and his then-wife, Ivana, to enjoy an all-expense-paid trip to Moscow to consider business prospects.
A short while later he made his first call for the dismantling of the NATO alliance. Which would benefit Russia.
At the beginning of 1990 Donald Trump owed a combined $4 billion to more than 70 banks, with $800 million personally guaranteed by his own assets, according to Alan Pomerantz, a lawyer whose team led negotiations between Trump and 72 banks to restructure Trump’s loans. Pomerantz was hired by Citibank.
Interview with Pomerantz
Trump agreed to pay the bond lenders 14% interest, roughly 50% more than he had projected, to raise $675 million. It was the biggest gamble of his career. Trump could not keep pace with his debts. Six months later, the Taj defaulted on interest payments to bondholders as his finances went into a tailspin.
In July 1991, Trump’s Taj Mahal filed for bankruptcy.
So he bankrupted a casino? What about Ru...
The Trump Taj Mahal casino broke anti-money laundering rules 106 times in its first year and a half of operation in the early 1990s, according to the IRS in a 1998 settlement agreement.
The casino repeatedly failed to properly report gamblers who cashed out $10,000 or more in a single day, the government said."The violations date back to a time when the Taj Mahal was the preferred gambling spot for Russian mobsters living in Brooklyn, according to federal investigators who tracked organized crime in New York City. They also occurred at a time when the Taj Mahal casino was short on cash and on the verge of bankruptcy."
....ssia
So by the mid 1990s Trump was then at a low point of his career. He defaulted on his debts to a number of large Wall Street banks and was overleveraged. Two of his businesses had declared bankruptcy, the Trump Taj Mahal Casino in Atlantic City and the Plaza Hotel in New York, and the money pit that was the Trump Shuttle went out of business in 1992. Trump companies would ultimately declare Chapter 11 bankruptcy two more times.
Trump was $4 billion in debt after his Atlantic City casinos went bankrupt. No U.S. bank would touch him. Then foreign money began flowing in through Deutsche Bank.
The extremely controversial Deutsche Bank. The Nazi financing, Auschwitz building, law violating, customer misleading, international currency markets manipulating, interest rate rigging, Iran & others sanctions violating, Russian money laundering, salvation of Donald J. Trump.
The agreeing to a $7.2 billion settlement with with the U.S. Department of Justice over its sale and pooling of toxic mortgage securities and causing the 2008 financial crisis bank.
The appears to have facilitated more than half of the $2 trillion of suspicious transactions that were flagged to the U.S. government over nearly two decades bank.
The embroiled in a $20b money-laundering operation, dubbed the Global Laundromat. The launders money for Russian criminals with links to the Kremlin, the old KGB and its main successor, the FSB bank.
That bank.
Three minute video detailing Trump's debts and relationship with Deutsche Bank
In 1998, Russia defaulted on $40 billion in debt, causing the ruble to plummet and Russian banks to close. The ensuing financial panic sent the country’s oligarchs and mobsters scrambling to find a safe place to put their money. That October, just two months after the Russian economy went into a tailspin, Trump broke ground on his biggest project yet.
Directly across the street from the United Nations building.
Russian Linked-Deutsche Bank arranged to lend hundreds of millions of dollars to finance Trump’s construction of a skyscraper next to the United Nations.
Construction got underway in 1999.
Units on the tower’s priciest floors were quickly snatched up by individual buyers from the former Soviet Union, or by limited liability companies connected to Russia. “We had big buyers from Russia and Ukraine and Kazakhstan,” sales agent Debra Stotts told Bloomberg. After Trump World Tower opened, Sotheby’s International Realty teamed up with a Russian real estate company to make a big sales push for the property in Russia. The “tower full of oligarchs,” as Bloomberg called it, became a model for Trump’s projects going forward. All he needed to do, it seemed, was slap the Trump name on a big building, and high-dollar customers from Russia and the former Soviet republics were guaranteed to come rushing in.
New York City real estate broker Dolly Lenz told USA TODAY she sold about 65 condos in Trump World at 845 U.N. Plaza in Manhattan to Russian investors, many of whom sought personal meetings with Trump for his business expertise.
“I had contacts in Moscow looking to invest in the United States,” Lenz said. “They all wanted to meet Donald. They became very friendly.”Lots of Russian and Eastern European Friends. Investing lots of money. And not only in New York.
Miami is known as a hotspot of the ultra-wealthy looking to launder their money from overseas. Thousands of Russians have moved to Sunny Isles. Hundreds of ultra-wealthy former Soviet citizens bought Trump properties in South Florida. People with really disturbing histories investing millions and millions of dollars. Igor Zorin offers a story with all the weirdness modern Miami has to offer: Russian cash, a motorcycle club named after Russia’s powerful special forces and a condo tower branded by Donald Trump.
Thanks to its heavy Russian presence, Sunny Isles has acquired the nickname “Little Moscow.”
From an interview with a Miami based Siberian-born realtor... “Miami is a brand,” she told me as we sat on a sofa in the building’s huge foyer. “People from all over the world want property here.” Developers were only putting up luxury properties because they “know that the crisis has not affected people with money,”
Most of her clients are Russian—there are now three direct flights per week between Moscow and Miami—and increasing numbers are moving to Florida after spending a few years in London first. “It’s a money center, and it’s a lot easier to get your money there than directly to the US, because of laws and tax issues,” she said. “But after your money has been in London for a while, you can move it to other places more easily.”
In the 2000s, Trump turned to licensing deals and trademarks, collecting a fee from other companies using the Trump name. This has allowed Trump to distance himself from properties or projects that have failed or encountered legal trouble and provided a convenient workaround to help launch projects, especially in Russia and former Soviet states, which bear Trump’s name but otherwise little relation to his general business.
Enter Bayrock Group, a development company and key Trump real estate partner during the 2000s. Bayrock partnered with Trump in 2005 and invested an incredible amount of money into the Trump organization under the legal guise of licensing his name and property management. Bayrock was run by two investors:
Felix Sater, a Russian-born mobster who served a year in prison for stabbing a man in the face with a margarita glass during a bar fight, pleaded guilty to racketeering as part of a mafia-driven "pump-and-dump" stock fraud and then escaped jail time by becoming a highly valued government informant. He was an important figure at Bayrock, notably with the Trump SoHo hotel-condominium in New York City, and has said under oath that he represented Trump in Russia and subsequently billed himself as a senior Trump advisor, with an office in Trump Tower. He is a convict who became a govt cooperator for the FBI and other agencies. He grew up with Micahel Cohen --Trump's disbarred former "fixer" attorney. Cohen's family owned El Caribe, which was a mob hangout for the Russian Mafia in Brooklyn. Cohen had ties to Ukrainian oligarchs through his in-laws and his brother's in-laws. Felix Sater's father had ties to the Russian mob.
Tevfik Arif, a Kazakhstan-born former "Soviet official" who drew on bottomless sources of money from the former Soviet republic. Arif graduated from the Moscow Institute of Trade and Economics and worked as a Soviet trade and commerce official for 17 years before moving to New York and founding Bayrock. In 2002, after meeting Trump, he moved Bayrock’s offices to Trump Tower, where he and his staff of Russian émigrés set up shop on the twenty-fourth floor.
Arif was offering him a 20 to 25 percent cut on his overseas projects, he said, not to mention management fees. Trump said in the deposition that Bayrock’s Tevfik Arif “brought the people up from Moscow to meet with me,”and that he was teaming with Bayrock on other planned ventures in Moscow. The only Russians who are likely have the resources and political connections to sponsor such ambitious international deals are the corrupt oligarchs.
In 2005, Trump told The Miami Herald “The name has brought a cachet to certain areas that wouldn’t have had it,” Dezer said Trump’s name put Sunny Isles Beach on the map as a classy destination — and the Trump-branded condo units sold “10 to 20 percent higher than any of our competitors, and at a faster pace.”“We didn’t have any foreclosures or anything, despite the crisis.”
In a 2007 deposition that was part of his unsuccessful defamation lawsuit against reporter Timothy O’Brien Trump testified "that Bayrock was working their international contacts to complete Trump/Bayrock deals in Russia, Ukraine, and Poland. He testified that “Bayrock knew the investors” and that “this was going to be the Trump International Hotel and Tower in Moscow, Kiev, Istanbul, et cetera, and Warsaw, Poland.”
In 2008, Donald Trump Jr. gave the following statement to the “Bridging U.S. and Emerging Markets Real Estate” conference in Manhattan: “[I]n terms of high-end product influx into the United States, Russians make up a pretty disproportionate cross-section of a lot of our assets; say in Dubai, and certainly with our project in SoHo and anywhere in New York. We see a lot of money pouring in from Russia.”
In July 2008, Trump sold a mansion in Palm Beach for $95 million to Dmitry Rybolovlev, a Russian oligarch. Trump had purchased it four years earlier for $41.35 million. The sale price was nearly $54 million more than Trump had paid for the property. This was the height of the recession when all other property had plummeted in value. Must be nice to have so many Russian oligarchs interested in giving you money.
In 2013, Trump went to Russia for the Miss Universe pageant “financed in part by the development company of a Russian billionaire Aras Agalarov.… a Putin ally who is sometimes called the ‘Trump of Russia’ because of his tendency to put his own name on his buildings.” He met with many oligarchs. Timeline of events. Flight records show how long he was there.
Video interview in Moscow where Trump says "...China wanted it this year. And Russia wanted it very badly." I bet they did.
Also in 2013, Federal agents busted an “ultraexclusive, high-stakes, illegal poker ring” run by Russian gangsters out of Trump Tower. They operated card games, illegal gambling websites, and a global sports book and laundered more than $100 million. A condo directly below one owned by Trump reportedly served as HQ for a “sophisticated money-laundering scheme” connected to Semion Mogilevich.
In 2014, Eric Trump told golf reporter James Dodson that the Trump Organization was able to expand during the financial crisis because “We don’t rely on American banks. We have all the funding we need out of Russia. I said, 'Really?' And he said, 'Oh, yeah. We’ve got some guys that really, really love golf, and they’re really invested in our programmes. We just go there all the time.’”
A 2015 racketeering case against Bayrock, Sater, and Arif, and others, alleged that: “for most of its existence it [Bayrock] was substantially and covertly mob-owned and operated,” engaging “in a pattern of continuous, related crimes, including mail, wire, and bank fraud; tax evasion; money laundering; conspiracy; bribery; extortion; and embezzlement.” Although the lawsuit does not allege complicity by Trump, it claims that Bayrock exploited its joint ventures with Trump as a conduit for laundering money and evading taxes. The lawsuit cites as a “Concrete example of their crime, Trump SoHo, [which] stands 454 feet tall at Spring and Varick, where it also stands monument to spectacularly corrupt money-laundering and tax evasion.”
In 2016, the Trump Presidential Campaign was helped by Russia.
(I don't have the presidential term sourced yet. I'll post an update when I do. I'm sure you probably remember most of them...sigh. TY to the main posters here. Obviously I'm standing on your shoulders having taken a lot of the information or articles from here).

President Donald Trump announced he and First Lady Melania Trump had tested positive for the virus and will begin their quarantine and recovery process immediately. The news comes after it was announced that close presidential aide Hope Hicks tested positive Wednesday evening.
Megathread Part I

Submissions that may interest you

SUBMISSION	DOMAIN
Trump, first lady to quarantine after top aide tests positive for coronavirus	thehill.com
Trump flew to New Jersey for a fundraiser, reportedly after learning Hope Hicks had COVID-19 symptoms	theweek.com
Putin says Trump's 'inherent vitality' will see him through COVID-19	reuters.com
Trump in 'quarantine process' after top aide gets COVID-19	sfgate.com
Trump in ‘Quarantine Process' After Top Aide Gets COVID-19	nbcwashington.com
President Donald Trump, first lady to quarantine after top aide tests positive for COVID-19	upi.com
Trump in ‘quarantine process’ after top aide gets COVID-19	bostonherald.com
Trump's positive Covid-19 test throws country into fresh upheaval	amp.cnn.com
Putin offers Trump wishes of 'sincere support' after positive coronavirus test	thehill.com
Trump tests positive for COVID-19: What happens if the president cannot perform his duties?	wftv.com
President Trump and first lady Melania test positive for COVID-19	cbsnews.com
Fears for Joe Biden after Trump tests positive for Covid	theguardian.com
Trump's positive Covid test was a surprise that many saw coming	theguardian.com
Biden Will Get Urgent COVID-19 Test After Trump’s Diagnosis, Says Report	thedailybeast.com
Vice President Mike Pence and second lady test negative for coronavirus following Trump's positive diagnosis	cnbc.com
VP Mike Pence tests negative and 'remains in good heath,' after Trump tests positive for COVID-19	timesunion.com
The Finance 202: Stock futures dive on the news that Trump has coronavirus	washingtonpost.com
Putin wished Trump a speedy recovery after his COVID-19 diagnosis, and said his 'innate vitality' will see him through	businessinsider.com
Mike Pence and wife Karen test negative for coronavirus after Trump diagnosis	independent.co.uk
China’s state media outlet mocks Trump for contracting coronavirus	nypost.com
Inb4 trump has now "contracted" coronavirus cos his team knew he f****d up the first debate that bad that any further appearance would be detrimental to his campaign.	sbs.com.au
Putin says Trump's 'inherent vitality' will see him through COVID-19	reuters.com
Mike Pence and wife Karen test negative for coronavirus after Trump diagnosis	independent.co.uk
Trump tests positive for COVID-19: Pence tests negative, Biden reportedly getting test	usatoday.com
Timeline: How Trump Has Downplayed The Coronavirus Pandemic	npr.org
Trump's coronavirus diagnosis presents America with new clear, present dangers	axios.com
Biden to get tested Friday morning following Trump COVID-19 positive test: report	thehill.com
The virus spares no one’: World reacts to Trump’s positive coronavirus test	washingtonpost.com
Shock, sympathy, mockery: World reacts to Trump infection - CBC News	cbc.ca
Trump’s Covid diagnosis renews testing debate on Capitol Hill	politico.com
Mike Pence, who will assume the presidency if Trump is incapacitated, has tested negative for COVID-19	businessinsider.com
Biden wishes Trump, first lady 'swift recovery' after positive COVID-19 tests	thehill.com
MyPillow Guy Mike Lindell Shouts Out Unproven COVID-19 'Cure' To Trump	huffpost.com
Age, obesity put Trump at high risk for severe coronavirus infection	axios.com
Chinese state media mocks Trump's positive virus test: 'Paid the price for his gamble to play down' pandemic	thehill.com
Older, overweight and male: Trump's COVID risk factors make him vulnerable	reuters.com
President Trump’s positive Covid-19 test throws country into fresh upheaval	mercurynews.com
Trump’s Covid-19 Diagnosis Reshapes Election a Month From Vote	bloomberg.com
MyPillow Guy Mike Lindell Shouts Out Unproven COVID-19 ‘Cure’ To Trump	m.huffpost.com
Trump’s positive coronavirus test will keep him out of swing states he hasn't visited yet	independent.co.uk
QAnon Believers Think Trump Got COVID On Purpose Because of Course They Do - QAnon followers believe the virus is fake, but also that Trump has it. And they're "dangerously hype" about it.	vice.com
Biden says he's 'praying for the health and safety" of Trump after the president's COVID-19 diagnosis	businessinsider.com
Keller: Will Voters Punish Trump For Deriding Coronavirus Precautions?	boston.cbslocal.com
‘Wear A God Damn Mask,’ Joe Kennedy Tweets While Wishing Trump Fast Covid Recovery	boston.cbslocal.com
New York Times slammed for suggesting Trump might not remain on ballot after coronavirus diagnosis	foxnews.com
Trump joked while people suffered with Covid. Well, is now the time to stop?	theguardian.com
Pence, second lady test negative for coronavirus after Trump's positive result	thehill.com
Coronavirus: Pelosi says Trump’s failure to wear masks at rallies was ‘brazen invitation’	independent.co.uk
Fox's Kilmeade: Trump could serve as positive example if he beats COVID while in 'danger age' of 74	thehill.com
White House wanted to keep Hope Hicks's positive COVID-19 test private: report	thehill.com
Trump experiencing ‘mild symptoms’ after coronavirus diagnosis	cnbc.com
Trump experiencing 'mild symptoms' after coronavirus diagnosis	cnbc.com
Trump’s strange pre-spin on his coronavirus diagnosis: It came from military, police who want to ‘hug’ and ‘kiss’ you	washingtonpost.com
Minnesota congressmen traveled with Trump before, after Duluth rally and positive COVID-19 test	duluthnewstribune.com
White House official: Trump experiencing ‘mild’ symptoms of coronavirus after positive test	apnews.com
Putin sends Trump a telegram offering ‘sincere support’ after positive coronavirus test	marketwatch.com
RNC chair Ronna McDaniel has tested positive for coronavirus following Trump diagnosis	independent.co.uk
Trump’s Behavior Was ‘Brazen Invitation’ for the Coronavirus, Pelosi Says	thedailybeast.com
Trump, first lady positive for virus; he has 'mild symptoms'	apnews.com
Trump, first lady positive for virus; he has ‘mild symptoms’	apnews.com
Donald Trump has 'mild symptoms' after contracting coronavirus	news.sky.com
President Donald Trump's coronavirus infection draws international sympathy and a degree of schadenfreude	eu.usatoday.com
Gretchen Whitmer: Donald Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis 'wakeup call to every single American'	freep.com
Kushner, Ivanka Trump test negative for COVID-19	thehill.com
Tracking Trump: Where the president was and who he came in contact with before announcing his positive coronavirus test	marketwatch.com
Of Course Donald Trump Got Covid	newrepublic.com
Trump has ‘mild symptoms’ after testing positive for COVID-19	wkow.com
Trump and Melania test positive for Covid.	foxnews.com
Leftists Cheer News Trump, Hope Hicks Infected With COVID-19: ‘I Hope They Both Die’	dailywire.com
White House coronavirus adviser Scott Atlas reacts to Trump's coronavirus diagnosis, says 'zero reason to panic'	foxnews.com
Piers Morgan rips mockery of Trump after contracting COVID-19: 'No better than the man they loathe'	thehill.com
Trump Has ‘Mild Symptoms’ After He and First Lady Test Positive for COVID-19	nbcnewyork.com
US stocks slump after Trump tests positive for virus	bostonglobe.com
Trump’s test shows how Covid-19 might threaten Barrett confirmation	rollcall.com
UK bookmakers stop taking bets on US election after Trump gets Covid-19	edition.cnn.com
WATCH: Trump ignored the science and his own experts on coronavirus — now he's tested positive for COVID-19, while more than 200,000 Americans have died	businessinsider.com
Pelosi: Trump Flouting COVID-19 Guidelines Was 'A Brazen Invitation For This To Happen' - The president, who said he tested positive early Friday, has downplayed the COVID-19 pandemic, even as more than 200,000 Americans have died.	huffpost.com
Trump Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett tests negative for coronavirus	thehill.com
Trump’s pre-spin seems to blame military, police interactions for coronavirus diagnosis	washingtonpost.com
How Many People Has Donald Trump Already Infected With COVID-19?	vanityfair.com
Concern over Biden's possible exposure to COVID-19 after Trump tests positive	abcnews.go.com
RNC chairwoman tests positive for coronavirus after she was with President Trump, who has COVID	nydailynews.com
Donald Trump's Positive COVID-19 Announcement Becomes His Most Liked Tweet Ever	newsweek.com
Hicks, hubris and not a lot of masks: the week Trump caught Covid	theguardian.com
'We continue to pray': Joe Biden offers thoughts, prayers to President Trump for speedy recovery after coronavirus test	usatoday.com
Nancy Pelosi says Trump’s behavior was ‘brazen invitation’ after COVID-19 infection	nypost.com
Pelosi says Trump's actions were a 'brazen invitation' for a positive COVID-19 test, calls his diagnosis 'very sad' and 'tragic'	businessinsider.com
Conspiracy theorists believe Trump is using COVID results to postpone the election — Many online are calling b.s. amid the shocking news.	dailydot.com
A Steelworker Who Sat In The Debate Hall On Trump’s Positive Coronavirus Test: “It’s Frustrating”	buzzfeednews.com
President Trump showing mild symptoms after testing positive for COVID-19: officials	nydailynews.com
Mitch McConnell says the next presidential debate could be held remotely via videoconference after Trump tests positive for COVID-19	businessinsider.com
Trump experiencing mild Covid symptoms: Why the first week matters	nbcnews.com
Trump had close contact with "dozens" on trip after White House learned he was exposed to COVID-19. Trump traveled to a fundraiser after Hope Hicks already tested positive and he was "feeling poorly"	salon.com
Trump Kept Regular Schedule After Learning Close Aide Had Covid	bloomberg.com
Map: President Trump’s travels the week he tested positive for Covid-19	nbcnews.com
QAnon, the far-right, and some left-wingers are all spreading conspiracies about Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis	businessinsider.com
GOP donors panic after coming close to Trump at fundraiser hours before his positive Covid-19 test	cnbc.com
Trump experiencing "mild symptoms" of the Coronavirus	newsday.com
Biden, Harris express wishes for speedy 'recovery' after Trump's positive coronavirus test	foxnews.com
Trump and Melania 'paid the price': Chinese propaganda mocks president after COVID-19 diagnosis - The editor-in-chief of one of China's state-run media outlets suggested that President Donald Trump and the US first lady, Melania Trump, "paid the price" by contracting the coronavirus.	businessinsider.com
Putin sends Trump a telegram to wish him speedy recovery from COVID-19: agencies cite Kremlin (Reuters)	reuters.com
Trump coronavirus: Pence ‘praying for full recovery’ of president and first Lady Melania after positive test	independent.co.uk
After Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis, Trump, Biden appearances in Arizona next week unclear	azcentral.com
Trump’s coronavirus infection is an indictment of his approach to the pandemic - The diagnosis is another reminder of his administration’s failure on Covid-19.	vox.com
“No one knows where this is going to go”: Pandemonium inside the White House as Trump contracts COVID-19	vanityfair.com
Trump experiencing mild symptoms from COVID-19	telegraph.co.uk
Judge Amy Coney Barrett tests negative for COVID-19 after Trump contracts virus	nydailynews.com
President Trump apparently has COVID-19	thebulletin.org
Stocks Fall After Trump Tests Positive for Covid-19	nytimes.com
Twitter users predicted Trump's October COVID-19 diagnosis	dailydot.com
White House learned of Hicks's positive test before Trump left for fundraiser: Meadows	thehill.com
[GOP donors 'freaking out' after coming close to Trump at fundraiser hours before his positive Covid-19 test](https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/gop-donors-panic-after-coming-close-to-trump-at-fundraiser-hours-before-positive-covid-19-test.html?__source=sharebar	twitter&par=sharebar)
Chris Wallace Says He's Getting Tested for Coronavirus After Being Exposed to Trump During Debate — "I don't think there's any question it's going to raise questions again about how seriously the president has taken the coronavirus," Wallace said Friday.	people.com
Trump's Covid diagnosis upends campaign, presents challenge for Biden — "This election isn't about Trump getting Covid, it's about America getting Covid," one Democratic strategist said.	nbcnews.com
Trump tests positive for COVID-19: Trump 'feeling mild symptoms,' but 'energetic'; Bidens praying for Trumps - live updates	usatoday.com
At 74 and obese, Covid-19 could be very serious for Donald Trump	telegraph.co.uk
John Cleese Revels in Donald Trump's COVID-19 Diagnosis — The 'Monty Python' icon has made it clear in the past he is not a fan of the president's and often criticizes him via social media.	hollywoodreporter.com
What Trump’s Positive Coronavirus Test Means for the Presidential Campaign	newyorker.com
Pelosi: Trump Flouting COVID-19 Guidelines Was ‘A Brazen Invitation For This To Happen’	m.huffpost.com
The Surprising Leftists Who Actually Wished Trump Well After COVID Diagnosis	townhall.com
How Will Trump’s Positive COVID-19 Test Affect The Election?	fivethirtyeight.com
Trump campaign did not notify Biden of positive coronavirus test	thehill.com
President Trump has ‘mild symptoms’ after testing positive for the coronavirus	opb.org
Trump downplayed Hope Hicks' Covid diagnosis on Fox hours before announcing he also tested positive	cnn.com
Mary Trump Slams President After Coronavirus Diagnosis: ‘Wear a F*cking Mask’	thedailybeast.com
Trump's age and weight could put him at higher risk for severe coronavirus infection	cbsnews.com
Will Trump’s COVID-19 Infection Change the Way He Manages the Pandemic? It Didn’t for the Leaders of Brazil and the U.K.	time.com
Trump's busy week before his positive Covid-19 test – in pictures - US news	theguardian.com
Timeline of Donald Trump’s activities in week coronavirus hit home	mlive.com
Global stocks fall, dollar gains after Trump gets coronavirus	uk.reuters.com
The latest coronavirus test results for Trump’s advisers and allies	washingtonpost.com
Sen Rob Portman, Rep Jim Jordan, Jon Husted will get COVID tests after being around Donald Trump	beaconjournal.com
Trump’s coronavirus infection is the result of his deadly, foolish recklessness	latimes.com
Positive! Trump’s Covid Bungling Now Takes a Personal Toll	thenation.com
Boris Johnson, who almost died of covid-19, wishes Trump a ‘speedy recovery’	washingtonpost.com
Did President Trump Refer to the Coronavirus as a 'Hoax'?	snopes.com
The world was already in chaos before Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis, and now there is more uncertainty than ever	businessinsider.com
Joe Biden has tested negative for coronavirus after Trump tests positive	vox.com
Trump says he and first lady have tested positive for the coronavirus	washingtonpost.com
Trump has coronavirus: Biden tests negative for COVID-19 after sharing debate stage with president - WATCH LIVE	abc7ny.com
'Not a Tragic Accident—A Crime Scene': Critics Say Trump Covid Diagnosis a 'Culmination' of His Deadly Pandemic Response	commondreams.org
After Trump's Positive Test, Here's The Status Of The Line Of Succession	npr.org
Trump suggested US troops or police were to blame for infecting White House staff just before he tested positive for COVID-19	businessinsider.com
Democratic nominee Joe Biden tests negative for coronavirus after potential exposure, Trump's diagnosis	cnbc.com
Schumer demands Senate coronavirus testing program after Trump diagnosis	thehill.com
Flights for Donald Trump's Wisconsin rallies canceled after president tests positive for COVID-19	madison.com
Joe Biden tests negative for coronavirus after Trump tests positive	businessinsider.com
Trump's coronavirus diagnosis guarantees this election will be about everything he has tried to avoid	cnn.com
The stock market's fear gauge surges 12% after President Trump tests positive for COVID-19	news.sky.com
Trump Team Knew of Hicks’ Positive Test—but Went Ahead With Golf Club Fundraiser	thedailybeast.com
InfoWars’ DeAnna Lorraine Claims ‘the Left’ May Have Given Trump COVID-19 Through His Debate Mic	rightwingwatch.org
Getting COVID-19 Is Probably Not a Brilliant Ploy for Sympathy That Will Boost Trump’s Reelection Chances	slate.com
House Probe Into Trump's Failed Covid-19 Response Shows "Unprecedented, Coordinated" Political Interference	commondreams.org
This Republican senator is the early leader for worst take on Trump's coronavirus diagnosis	cnn.com
Chris McDonald ‘Wouldn’t Put it Past’ Democrats to Infect Trump With COVID-19 to Stop the Presidential Debates	rightwingwatch.org
Trump supporter potentially exposed to COVID-19 from RNC chair's visit	cincinnati.com
GOP senator on Judiciary panel tests positive for Covid-19 days after meeting with Trump's nominee	cnn.com
Today’s coronavirus news: Ontario sets new record with 732 reported cases; Trump, first lady test positive for virus; Biden tests negative	thestar.com
[Politico] Trump coronavirus diagnosis leaves lawmakers exposed	politico.com
RNC chair Ronna McDaniel says she has COVID-19, hours after Trump	6abc.com
Nancy Pelosi Says Donald Trump's Actions Were 'Brazen Invitation' to Catch COVID	newsweek.com
Trump Has Repeatedly Downplayed COVID-19. What Will He Do Now That He Has It?	buzzfeednews.com
No, Trump Isn’t Faking COVID In A Master Scheme To Vanquish Biden	talkingpointsmemo.com
Trump Could Only Ignore the Reality of Coronavirus for So Long	jacobinmag.com
Trump’s ‘positive for COVID-19’ tweet is his most ‘liked’ post ever	marketwatch.com
Trump’s refusal to wear a face mask is a catastrophe A face mask might have protected Trump — and the people around him — from the coronavirus.	vox.com
Schumer says Trump coronavirus diagnosis shows what happens 'when you ignore science'	foxnews.com
Sen. Mike Lee, who met with Trump Supreme Court pick Amy Coney Barrett, tests positive for COVID-19	usatoday.com
Nancy Pelosi says continuity of government is ‘always in place’ after Trump tests positive for Covid-19	cnbc.com
Naomi Klein: I Fear Trump Will Exploit His COVID Infection to Further Destabilize the Election	democracynow.org
PolitiFact - Trump’s health and COVID-19: Here’s what we know	politifact.com
Confusion, concern infiltrate White House after Trump’s positive test	politico.com
Putin, Who Has Spent Almost Six Months In Isolation To Avoid The Coronavirus, Sent Trump A Get Well Note	buzzfeednews.com
Trumpworld delighted in cruelty. Now that Trump has COVID, it demands empathy.	businessinsider.com
Where Trump went (and who he was with) leading up to his coronavirus diagnosis	politico.com
Biden tests negative for COVID-19, reminds folks to 'wear a mask' after being mocked by Trump for mask at debate	usatoday.com

Obviously this isn't set in England, but spiritually this piece is within my English Football series. The first six episodes covered Nottingham Forest's 21st century woes, the dickpic that consigned Notts County to the non-league, a reignited rivalry between Derby County and Leeds United, Stoke City's legendary shithouse era, the English Golden Generation of the 00s descending into farce, and Wimbledon FC's controversial relocation to Milton Keynes
This spin-off piece follows on from the main question raised by the Wimbledon FC/MK Dons saga. When does a club stop being a club? Is it the legal entity or something rather more intangible? These were questions posed with regards to one of the titans of Scottish football earlier this decade.
Background - The Establishment Club
Rangers FC has long cultivated an image as Scotland's 'establishment club', it isn't just a sports team, but an institution that embodies a particular way of living and worldview. Alongside other institutions like the Church of Scotland, the club is perceived as embodying traditional and small-C conservative Scottish values. Alongside Celtic (more on them in a bit) Rangers have dominated Scottish football since the league started. No club other than the two Glaswegian sides has won the league since 1985. Rangers have 54 league titles, Celtic have 51. The joint 3rd best sides (Aberdeen and the Edinburgh pair Hearts and Hibernian) have just four a piece. And yet as a legal entity the club ceased to exist in 2012. What happened? Does Rangers FC still exist?
It would be impossible to tell this tale without telling the tale of the Old Firm and the profound political, cultural, and religious divides involved. Glasgow's two largest clubs have a rivalry that defies comparison to anything in the rest of Scotland or in England. Essentially Rangers FC and its supporters represent Protestantism and British Unionism, while Celtic FC are considered to be aligned with Catholicism and Irish Nationalism. When the two sides meet, the Scottish saltire is rarely flown by supporters. Rangers supporters prefer the Union Jack or Ulster Banner, Celtic fans are likely to fly Irish tricolours. It is as if somebody took the socio-cultural conflict of Northern Ireland and transplanted it into a football ground.
Which is sort of what happened. Ultimately a big factor was migration to Glasgow in the early 20th century - Irish Catholics in Glasgow set up Celtic FC as their club, while Protestants from Northern Ireland (who are historically of largely Scottish extraction) who worked in the shipyards of the Clyde came to adopt Rangers which was located near the shipbuilding areas. Local Scots, being generally Protestant, inclined to support Rangers and many would have shared the religious and political feelings of the newcomers from Northern Ireland. This has meant that at matches both clubs have sections of support who chant about the Northern Irish conflict - some Rangers fans have a 'songbook' including the Loyalist anthem The Sash (which commemorates King William III, the Dutchman invited to become King of England and Scotland who defeated a Catholic army at the Boyne in 1690), while Celtic fans might sing in support of the Irish Republican Army. This involves by no means the majority of supporters, but it is important in setting the atmosphere at games.
Rangers FC had until the late 1980s an alleged policy of not signing any player known to be a Catholic. This led legendary Celtic manager Jock Stein to joke that if offered a Catholic or a Protestant to sign for Celtic, he would sign the Protestant in the knowledge that Rangers would never sign the Catholic. I cannot find evidence of any player ever transferring directly between Celtic and Rangers in the postwar era, with the low number of players who have turned out for both having had a 3rd club in between. Another example of the intensity is the way in which the clubs traditionally share shirt sponsors. This sounds innocuous, but the only way to sponsor one of the clubs without triggering a mass boycott by the other supporters was to simply sponsor both.
No other football rivalry in Britain has a dynamic like this (Liverpool and Everton did to a far lesser extent before about the 1960s, but sectarianism largely died out there decades ago), even in the days when hooliganism was a serious blight on English football it never quite reached the sort of scenes on display at the 1980 Scottish Cup Final.
Which club is the 'biggest'? It is impossible to say. Rangers have had more League titles, but Celtic being the first British club to win a European Cup in 1967 is a fairly potent trump card. What is without a doubt is that they are the two best supported Scottish clubs and their rivalry is possibly like no other.
Chasing the Rainbow
Avid readers of this series will notice a theme. The 1990s were a boom time for football and everyone involved in the sport. TV revenue started to really take off, as did the prizes for winning European competitions. Many clubs sought to capitalise on the windfall and Rangers were no exception.
Their chairman, Sir David Murray, had become one of Scotland's weathiest businessmen by leveraging debts against future revenue. He spent big on Rangers in the hope that they would win a major European trophy and repay his investment. Top players like Paul Gascoigne came to Rangers where before it was fairly rare for big name players from other leagues to move to Scotland. Domestically his investments paid off, from 1989-97 Rangers won nine League titles in a row, equalling the record set by Jock Stein's great Celtic side between 1966-74.
Unfortunately this did not translate to the windfall a Champion's League win would have given. While Murray was bankrolling Rangers, other clubs around Europe were likewise chasing the new massive financial prizes. Rangers came close to getting past the group stage of the new Champion's League format in 1992-93, but no Scottish club would enter a Champion's League knockout round until Rangers do so in 2005-06.
The debts mounted and Murray sought ways to manage the debts and hedge them against future revenue anticipated from TV fees and European prize money. He allowed the Bank of Scotland to buy a stake in the club with a mortgage allowing them to recover their losses in the event of the club defaulting on its repayments. Nothing to worry about, surely? David Murray had become a wildly successful businessman by effectively managing credit lines and debt against future income to fund expansion.
But a far bigger problem was just three small letters.
EBT
Put simply, Employee Benefit Trusts are a way of not paying tax, it was legal in some cases at the time but is generally illegal now.
Murray sought, from 2000, to pay his players through EBTs. This meant that they would be able to offer high net wages to players while cutting tax costs. In Britain most employees have all their tax payments deducted by the employer, so schemes like this and ones where employees are paid in dividends are a way of essentially not paying tax.
By 2010 HMRC had begun to investigate the case, concluding that Rangers may have evaded £49m in taxes, a vast amount for a club already overleveraged in debt in a league not known for being particularly wealthy.
By about 2008 Murray had had enough of Rangers and was looking to sell up. He had gambled and lost huge amounts of money on the club, which was now saddled with huge amounts of debt. The prospect of paying £49m to HMRC if the courts ruled against Rangers deterred any serious buyer and it took some years for a buyer to emerge. Another serious issue was the sheer amount of debt Rangers had to Lloyds (who had taken over the Bank of Scotland), with fans in 2009 threatening a boycott of the banking chain if the bank called in its debts.
Would a buyer emerge and save Rangers from this predicament?
Well, a buyer would emerge in 2011. Not the other bit, sadly.
Enter Craig Whyte
Craig Whyte had once been Scotland's youngest millionaire as a venture capitalist. He bought the club for £1 from Murray but desperately needed to leverage some funds to settle the Lloyds debt, so he borrowed a cool £26.7m against future season ticket sales. This on the face of it should have set alarm bells, even the biggest clubs don't make huge amounts of money on matchday tickets in relation to their massive costs.
Whyte also indulged in a bit of tax fiddling. But rather than setting up an avoidance mechanism and letting the lawyers fight it out, he just stopped sending Her Majesty's Revenue and Customs the income tax payments for the club players and staff. Definitely not the sophistication of Murray.
Matters only got worse. In early 2012 BBC Scotland aired a BAFTA-winning documentary about Whyte and Rangers, which revealed that Whyte had been once banned from working as a company director for seven years. The Scottish Football Association agreed, Whyte was not a 'Fit and Proper' person to own a football club.
At about this time Rangers entered administration. When this happens in Britain, the company's creditors can agree to a 'Company Voluntary Arrangement' (CVA) which essentially means agreeing a plan for the company to continue operating while in administration so the creditors can recover their debts. HMRC, with the outstanding £49m tax case from Murray's era plus the money owed by Whyte's outright failure to pay tax, voted against allowing this to happen.
In the absence of a CVA and agreement with creditors, this meant that Rangers FC as a company ceased to exist in June 2012, with all assets transferred to 'Sevco Scotland Ltd'.
Could this have been avoided? In the end, the £49m owed to HMRC which proved such a millstone has been substantially reduced and the cases around it are still ongoing. But ultimately, Rangers had vast amounts of debt not just to HMRC.
For his part Whyte would be bankrupted by his loan to buy the club and would be faced with a far longer ban on acting as a company director.
Sevco FC?
Sevco inherited everything Rangers had. The players had an opportunity to transfer their employment to Sevco, which also gained Ibrox Stadium and Ranger's membership of the Scottish Premier League.
For the club owned by Sevco to be able to play in the SPL next season, 2/3rds of members had to vote in favour. Clubs such as Aberdeen, Dundee United, and Hearts bowed to fan feeling that Rangers could not continue where they left off. In the end, no club voted in favour of Rangers remaning in the SPL with only Kilmarnock abstaining. This event would generate a huge amount of bad feeling and bitterness from Rangers fans who felt that supporters of other clubs were content to throw them under a bus for reasons not of their making. There was definitely a sense of schadenfreude from supporters of other clubs, watching Scotland's 'Establishment Club' go to the wall.
Could Rangers join the Scottish First Division and gain promotion to the Premier League? First Division clubs didn't want to face the consequences of a Premier League problem, so they also rejected it.
In the end, the Scottish Football League allowed Rangers FC to rejoin the league in the Third Division, a largely semi-professional league three divisions below the Premier League. Their first competitive game was a Challenge Cup (competition for the two lower leagues in the Scottish Football League) tie against Brechin City, who represent a sleepy town of just 7,000.
Clawing their way back up
Most of Ranger's players had refused their statutory right to transfer employment to the new company. Nonetheless, the 2012-13 season started well with their first home league game setting a world record for the best attended fourth division match in history as over 49,000 attended Rangers vs East Stirlingshire. A strong league performance saw Rangers confirm promotion into the 3rd tier by the end of March.
2013-14 saw another promotion as Rangers had an unbeaten season in League One (the leagues were renamed at about this time) to secure promotion to the Championship, the first league which would be wholly filled with professional clubs after the mix of professional and semi-professional that plies their trade in Scotland's lower leagues.
Rangers didn't make it three back-to-back promotions as they lost a promotion play-off final 6-1 to Motherwell, one of Scotland's more successful non-Old Firm clubs who had suffered a stint in the 2nd tier.
During this season they met Celtic in the cup. Some Celtic fans placed an advert in a newspaper claiming that the 'Old Firm' was over and while they had enjoyed a rivalry with Rangers FC they did not recognise the new club as the same entity. This caused some controversy, not just with Rangers fans, but with Celtic fans who were indeed looking forward to the first Old Firm in some time. The accusation that Rangers were 'Zombies' or 'Sevco FC' would become a common one from Celtic supporters at games and remains as such.
Rangers won the 2016-15 Scottish Championship to secure promotion, while also beating Celtic in a Scottish Cup semi-final. But, the 'Gruesome Twosome' of Scottish football would once again grace the top flight together.
Same as before?
Celtic had done very well out of the previous few years. They had won a succession of League titles at a canter with the accompanying European qualification giving them financial muscle the other clubs couldn't compete with. Rangers finished a respectable 3rd, but Celtic once again dominated the league.
After an embarrassing elimination out of the Europa League at the hands of a semi-professional side from Luxembourg, Rangers didn't improve on their 3rd place and Celtic won again. It wasn't until 2018-19 that Rangers finished 2nd.
With Celtic winning again.
Could Celtic's domination be broken before they won 10 titles in a row and broke the record jointly held by 1960s-70s Celtic and 1990s Rangers? Perhaps not yet.
2019-20 started well, Rangers had a fantastic run in the Europa League under Steven Gerrard and beat Celtic at their ground for the first time since 2010. COVID put paid to an increasingly close title race with Celtic awarded the title based on Points Per Game with the season abandoned.
This season has very much been Ranger's season though. At the time of writing they seem, barring a miracle/disaster, overwhemingly likely to win the League this year and deny Celtic the coveted ten in a year.
Postscript
Is the Rangers FC of today the same club as that pre-2012? Displays from Celtic fans would say not, and as a legal entity it certainly isn't the same. But UEFA allows for 'sporting continuity' for a club in terms of identity and honours even if the holding company or corporate structure changes. This suggests something that many football supporters would agree with - a club is as much as community asset as it is a company or business and the stories we have looked at explore the issues when the business and the community collide.
Next time, we'll take a look at how Arsenal Fan TV revolutionised football social media while turning their club into a laughing stock

Nikola saw another stock crash yesterday, while Alibaba’s stock plunges after-hours with increased pressure from the regulators. Some news about DKNG, PENN and other stock market news for today.
~Very Long Post~
Hello everyone and Good Morning! First of all, I wanted to wish to everyone happiness, peace and prosperity this upcoming Christmas, hope you are all doing well, Merry Christmas everyone.
And let’s start with the recap of yesterday as we saw the Dow Jones leading the way, finishing up .38%, with the broad market SP500 also barely finishing in the green for the day up .07% and the Nasdaq Composite finishing in the red .29%.
We also saw the VIX dropping again today by 3.8% despite being even lower but seeing a pop in the last hours of trading with a spike of more than 4% with more uncertainty being created in the Congress after Trump vetoed the defense bill, as he continued to distract the attention from the big number of pardons he keeps giving out, with the latest round bringing the total to almost 50 in the past week.
More than 60% of the companies were gaining yesterday with over 200 new highs, but the volume was relatively low in this shortened trading week, as 8 of the 11 SP sectors were gaining yesterday with Energy and Financials gaining more than 1.6% with Financials gaining a boost as the Treasury yields pushed up and the curve continues to steepen, while the laggards were Real Estate, Technology and Utilities as value plays especially small and mid-caps outperformed yesterday, with the large-cap growth companies finishing the day down by more than half a percent.
You can see this exact thing in this HEAT MAP as the 3 biggest companies in the world, Apple, Amazon & Microsoft, finished the day down more than 0.6%. You can also see that most of the gains were concentrated in the banks and oil & gas industry while the rest of the market was pretty much mixed with companies like Tesla, Google, Facebook having small gains, while others like Zoom, Netflix, Airbnb and many more suffered.
Yesterday we also got the AAII SURVEY that shows how investors were feeling last week. This time we don’t get any good news as this is a contrarian indicator, as people started to move from a bearish sentiment to a more neutral sentiment with more than 4% of investors moving from a bearish view to a neutral view, with only a .1% increase in bullish investors last week, as the stimulus bill seemed to be finally agreed on before Trump making new headlines this week again with the Veto of the NDAA.
Meanwhile we also got tons of economic data yesterday starting with initial and continuing jobless claims as initial claims came in way lower than expected just over 800K, down almost 90K from the previous week and falling to a 3-week low, with the continuing jobless claims also dropping to 5.3M, lower than last week and what was expected from the analysts.
We also saw the durable goods number coming in better than expected with a .9% increase, up for the 7th straight month, while house PRICES rose nationwide by 1.5% in October from the previous month, which continued to push house prices higher by more than 10% since last year, with home SALES falling in November but are still up over 20% year over year as the median sales price of new houses continued to trend up.
Alongside this we saw the final consumer sentiment read slipping in December to 80.7, lower than expected but higher than the 76.9 in November, with the November Personal INCOME coming worse than expected, losing 1.1% from the previous month.
In contrast, today we don’t really get any critical economic data and the stock market closes early.
So, we saw Nikola take another stumble yesterday, after the whole Apple & Tesla disruption as we saw the stocks drop more than 10% again yesterday and is down more than 26% since I made my prediction and just hit my first price target, here is the link to that post.
Nikola shares skid yesterday again after another deal for the company fell, as that meant the termination of the deal with Republic Services to develop an electric garbage truck for them. The deal was expected to have Nikola produce over 2500 trucks for the company. So, I would trim my sell position on Nikola here, while leaving some for my next target, with that target being a drop in the single digits in the future for the company.
In some other stock market news, we saw Alibaba shares plummeting again more than 8% on the Hong Kong exchange and more than 7% in pre-market in the US by now, after more pressure has been put on the company as the Chinese authorities are continuing to pursue anti-monopolistic investigations on the company while also continuing the investigation on Ant Group which is an affiliate of Alibaba as they hold more than 1/3 of the company. I think these investigations are very likely to come out with fines and structural changes on how the company will work with its subsidiaries and affiliates, and that the high flying, record-breaking, Ant Group IPO will likely be postponed for a longer period until they meet regulators requirements as it is expected that Ant Group will be given some guidelines to follow by the regulators. My personal belief is that Alibaba is a great company and it should trade higher than this, but until this whole mess with the authorities clears, anything can happen as you can see in this CHART, as the stock has underperformed since Ant Group canceled the IPO, with my long-term price target for Alibaba being 300$, but I wouldn’t go to heavy on this trade right now.
Enough of Alibaba, meanwhile we also saw XL Fleet jumping huge yesterday after the usual short-seller Citron, indicated that there is still more upside for this company.
And one final piece of news is that Colorado set another record for wagers in November, this is another confirmation of the gambling tailwinds that will skyrocket companies like DraftKings & PENN Gaming higher in the next years.
Let’s hope for a good day in the market as the FUTURES seem to be pointing at a good open, with the Nasdaq Composite leading the way, while the European Union and UK are finally nearing a deal for Brexit, and remember there are only 5 trading sessions left in 2020 with today also being a short-day of trading.
Also, don’t forget this is usually when one of the best 7-day period for gains happens, with an average return of 1.33% and a 77% chance of that happening since 1950. But be careful, not every year is a winner, you can see here some examples, with 1999 being a very bad year as the dot com bubble approached, with another bad year coinciding with the start of the financial crisis. Hopefully this will be the 5th straight year with a positive return in this period.
Thank you everyone for reading! Hope you enjoyed the content! Be sure to leave a comment down below with your opinion on the stock market!
Have a great day and see you next time!

What has happened in the last the days in this subreddit has been nothing short of an explosion of mass hysteria and delusion.
It's been a mix of a cult like following of the 'reddit stocks' where any alternative opinion shared is shot to hell and a tinfoil hat wearing brigade declaring any slight market movement not in their favour or platform issue, is due to some grand conspiracy and/or market manipulation. From an outside perspective it honestly felt like the Trump crowd proclaiming 'tHe elEctiON waS rIgGEd' just because it didn't go the way the way they wanted.
I have no issue with people sharing views on the next penny stock or with people that have wildly more speculative investing styles to my own, I think that it's completely normal and should be welcomed. But it felt as if overnight investors (as in people that got an account in the last few weeks, watched a few youtube videos on 'what's a stop loss' etc and built a confirmation bias from reading articles on reddit) were throwing completely baseless allegations at T212.
I remember it unfolding. Everyone was like 'F*** T212 let's go to FreeTrade where they aren't manipulators' or 'I can't wait til we get Robinhood in the UK' to, 'T212 is taking backhanders from HF's' & 'the whole industry is in on it'. Which is all completely baseless and false. I also remember when people were absolutely losing their marbles when they couldn't place orders despite having no knowledge NYSE had halted trading etc. Anyone who's been a market participant for more than 5 minutes knows that none of what happened was new or shocking. Brokers do unusual things in unusual times to protect themselves. I also posted on their fiduciary responsibility (which got shot to hell) which i'll share again beneath. There was also a great comment from u/dialectic_duck which i'll paste beneath for anyone that wants to read about what was happening behind the scenes.
There's also the massive issue to me that this is a FREE service. To expect lightning fast execution at the best prices and 100% server response at peak market times during a completely unexpected event like this, is an absolute joke. It's not what this platform is here for. It's a free service which to me, everyone that used this service prior to the frenzy understood. If you're new to the markets and want to dabble, or you want to invest without the fees of say HL, great T212's your guy. If you want a professional level broker, go get yourself a $10k minimum deposit and go elsewhere, or be willing to pay high account charges.
I was also downvoted for saying what would have happened if T212 hadn't suspended trading when the price was of GME was at $450. So many here would have flooded in and due to the reddit sentiment, would still be holding at a MASSIVE loss. Without realising, many people have been saved from losing a tonne of money by physically not being able to enter orders. You can't have your cake and eat it. I also think it's completely reckless when completely unqualified users are telling others 'to hold no matter what'. People that can't afford to lose money have lost £0000's on this. Holding onto a loser is completely against basic investing principles as you almost certainly lose more money. Google behavioural finance.
On risk & regulation etc. Again people who have been in the market for more than 5 minutes would have identified all the risks here INCLUDING counter-party risk and stepped back and happily watched the frenzy from the sidelines. When investing in risky stocks such as this you have to be prepared to lose money, and that loss can come from anywhere. If you honestly look for 100% risk free and feel entitled to this from a free service, you are probably better purchasing Gilts from the DMO. The FCA also regularly issues notices on the risks to retail investors on issues such as these so they quite frankly don't give a monkey's and complaints with the FOS will go nowhere. Here is the FCA's statement for anyone interested.
Prior to the WSBs crowd, there were generic discussions on investing tips, sharing investment ideas or gains, platform information and general financial news etc. I think people need to take a step back and remember that's what this is here for.
I have NO IDEA what will happen next, i'm not trying to say I do or share any opinion on what might happen to GME etc in the next few days. Could go to $10 or $10k. I also sympathise with those who were stuck in orders etc. But I think it's time we all took a step back and just chill a little. A lot of us like T212 for what it is. I like the updates to the web app and am looking forward to carrying on using it.
---------------------------
u/dialectic_duck 's post:
It’s hilarious people think this has legs and I look forward to my downvotes.

1. when you buy a stock settlement is not immediate
2. orderly settlement is an important function of underlying market transactions (a tx isn’t complete until what you bought is delivered)
3. most brokers rely on settlement agents to handle settlement and clearing for them.
4. every day brokers post collateral on a continuous net settlement basis so that the clearing house knows that both sides of a transaction will be fulfilled at settlement time this allows brokers the confidence to know that even if the other side is at another brokerage there is enough cash/equity to fulfil.
5. the margin rate for brokers went from 10% to 100% overnight because there was concern that settlements may result in failures to deliver (simply put for clarity this means if you bought you might not end up getting what you think you bought**) and in that case the broker would be on the hook to pay this liability, as such they’re completely within their rights to manage this risk (that they cannot fulfil a delivery) not just in the case of a customer wanting to buy, but for the security of all their customers who would be adversely impacted if the broker itself imploded. (This is why Robinhood got caught short and pulled down a reported 500mm in bank lines and 1bb in emergency convertible debt funding from their investors in 24hrs, because half their customer base was buying GME and they wouldn’t have been able to meet short term clearing obligations without it)
6. my own broker made it very clear in multiple communications that they passed on the enhanced margin requirements (100% long and 300% short AND the liquidate only restrictions on to all customers - retail, professional and institutional customers). some of those customers are family offices, small hedge funds etc (anyone that doesn’t have a prime IB brokerage).
7. T212 uses IBKR as their intermediary, they literally had no choice but to comply, and neither did IBKR because they would have been in breach of settlement collateral posting obligations. As an aside HL uses a RFQ system and their is no obligation for the RFQ broker network to provide a quote to open new positions if they reasonably believe they cannot fulfil delivery to the client. (Btw when I checked I didn’t see restriction on buying with HL, but I only looked once).

** this is the fallacy in the argument, people are complaining they were prevented from buying, their only thesis for wanting to buy something that everyone “knows” is absurdly priced is because of XXX% short interest, by their (own logic) means there is limited shares actually available to buy. If you take this to the extreme they’re demanding someone sell them something that by their own logic might not exist for delivery to them.
It’s like going into Tesco and demanding to buy something they no longer can give you with any reasonable certainty, then writing to your MP about it, it’s stupid.
The only thing the outrage could guarantee is enhanced “retail protections” that will almost certainly result in a curtailment of retail investor freedom people have today.
Edit: if you have a complaint about not being able to buy ARK complain to ARK, it’s them that do not run a MIFID complaint fund nor report to HMRC for tax purposes (meaning gains anyway would be taxed as foreign overseas income, and not CGT).
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My post on 28/01:
They (T212) have a fiduciary responsibility to protect their customers' interests.
And yes they can control risk. It's exactly the same reason why they can't offer excess leverage to retail clients and can close out positions. Halting trading for this reason is not new. It has happened across the board with plenty of brokers in the past.
The FCA handbooks cover this. They could be liable to FCA sanctions if it transpired they were offering easy access to completely non-qualified investors and they all ended up losing huge sums and made FCA complaints.
Say GME dumps at open (which it is completely possible), I feel people won't be complaining.
They've said in that notification, this is partly to do with trading volumes (which have been crazy) and their servers will just melt again and people will be stuck in orders when the market potentially dumps this.
So T212, a free service, should upgrade all their servers and increase capacity in the space of 2 days, purely because every man and his dog has decided to pile into a handful of stocks the last few days (fuelled by a reddit forum)?
This happens, it's happened loads on the past with all brokers across the board and this issue wasn't specific to T212 yesterday.
People that have qualified themselves as pro investors, have literally become traders overnight and are complaining 'manipulation' etc...
Yes it's really shit to everyone stuck in orders, but what did you expect!!! Experienced investors will have stayed well clear of this and only invested what they can afford to lose, knowing it's a complete gamble!
The FOS are going to say T212 looks after the interests of all its users and were trying to decrease server volatility whilst literally millions of people were piling into a few names at a time there was also no liquidity. And that the platform isn't just for people trading risky instruments via CFDs. The FCA won't give a monkey's, they regularly issue risk warnings on stuff like this.

NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html
NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1.
https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html
NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%)
NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar.
https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866
NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below
https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
!!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should.
In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase.
Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below:
https://www.playboy.com/
https://www.playboytv.com/
https://www.playboyplus.com/
https://www.iplayboy.com/
Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success.
“Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.”
https://www.scientificgames.com/
https://www.microgaming.co.uk/
“This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.”
https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/
As per their SEC filing:
“Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1
They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon.
https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era
Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea
“Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.”
“According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently:
https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae
Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress.
Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait.
https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/
Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video:
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html
Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05
Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing:
“For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.”
“In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.”
“In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.”
They are profitable across all three of their current business segments.
“Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.”
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders).
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm
This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world.
"Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.”
Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame:
“As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn.
The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :(
He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :)
Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw.
I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003
Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this:
“Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy.
“Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative.
https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html
Y’all like that China money?
“Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.”
Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.”
https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company
These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose.
I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future.
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF
I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing.
https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing
“Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.”
“Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.”
Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong.
Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will.
Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way.
Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains.
TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here:
WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though
https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf
Or here:
https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx
Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.”
STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon.
Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.

Lord Darnley was not a man mourned by many. Today, his short and indolent life is overshadowed by his legendary wife and the circumstances of his death. But even today, more than four hundred years later, those circumstances are, in many ways, still a mystery. Of the hundreds who would have loved to see him dead—lords, lovers, and ‘friends alike—could his wife have orchestrated his murder? And what of the strange letters that seem to incriminate her?
Note: This is several mysteries wrapped up in one, so, fair warning, it’s disgustingly long. it's also another I have no idea how to tag. Murder? Lost artifact? It's 3AM and I don't care anymore. Apologies for the clunky title, too.
Life:
Lord Darnley, as he is commonly referred to, was born Henry Stuart sometime in 1545. In his infancy, his father—an earl—was found guilty of treason and exiled to England. Darnley received a classical education and was the model of a carefree noble’s son. Eventually, his father’s title was reinstated. Now, Darnley was an ideal candidate for any noblewoman in search of a husband.
One such woman was Mary Queen of Scots, Darnley’s cousin. Mary was taken with him immediately, but not all were; as Sir Walter Scott put it, “Young Darnley was remarkably tall and handsome, perfect in all external and showy accomplishments, but unhappily destitute of sagacity, prudence, the steadiness of character, and exhibiting only doubtful courage, though extremely violent in his passions.” Mary was not dissuaded, and they wed in July 1565, much to the displeasure of Queen Elizabeth. To no one’s surprise, the marriage was not a happy one.
Mary faced incredibly high expectations as the only surviving legitimate child of James V of Scotland and, as many considered her, the legitimate heir to England’s throne. Darnley was not a partner with whom she could share her burdens; instead, he was “shallow, vain, weak, indolent, selfish, arrogant, vindictive and irremediably spoiled.” Darnley spent his days gambling and avoiding court business and his nights with women of ill repute. But he was also prone to fits of jealousy, and was involved in the murder of Mary’s secretary, David Rizzio. Though Mary seemed to forgive him, many have questioned how genuine this was—for all that she was saddened by the unhappiness of her marriage, she was a consummate politician. Whatever the case, she tried, unsuccessfully, to obtain a divorce. Despite this, she gave birth to a son in 1566, and Darnley spent more and more time away from court.
Death:
As the distance between Mary and Darnley grew, Mary became closer to James Hepburn, Earl of Bothwell and Lord Admiral of Scotland. Like Darnley, Bothwell was known for his brutality, licentiousness, and pride. Unlike Darnley, Bothwell was power-hungry and cunning, though he was “more opportunist than strategist.” Darnley, perhaps aware of the close relationship between Mary and Bothwell, became sullen, and eventually, in 1567, took ill (possibly from syphilis) in Glasgow. Mary traveled to him, and decided he would be sent back to Edinburgh to recover at Kirk o’Field house, a small two-story dwelling in a church courtyard (now covered by modern-day Edinburgh, likely under the Old College). Soon after, Mary left to attend a wedding. Allegedly, she remembered she had to attend the wedding at the last minute, after previously saying she’d be spending the night with Darnley.
On February 10th (note: some sources say 9th), a gunpowder explosion destroyed the house. But the explosion didn’t kill Darnley—his body, along with the body of his attendant, was found in an orchard nearby, likely smothered, with a cloak, dagger, chair, and coat beside him. Darnley wore only his nightshirt.
The explosion was strong, powered by two barrels of gunpowder placed under Darnley’s bedroom, and another servant was killed by the blast, which rocked the nearby church buildings. But Darnley and his attendant were not in Darnley’s bedroom, where they almost certainly would have died instantly. What passed for an autopsy in 1567 was performed, revealing internal injuries likely from the explosion, but no visible marks, from strangulation or otherwise. Some contemporaries believed that the surgeons lied about the lack of external injuries, but they would have had few reasons to do so.
Theories & Suspicion:
The most likely scenario is that something—but what?—alerted Darnley to the danger he was in, and he escaped from the house with his attendant using the chair and rope found with them. A pursuer, likely the person or persons who set off the gunpowder, chased Darnley (who would still have been weak from illness), and strangled or smothered him. Alternatively, some think that the explosion was never meant to kill Darnley, merely cover it up—but when Darnley escaped before he could be killed and his body burned, he was murdered in the orchard instead. According to one witness, 12 men went through the gate into the courtyard, and after the explosion, another eleven went by. Witnesses presented a problem, however, because of the differing opinions on Darnley and Mary. But the real mystery isn’t how Darnley died. It’s who did it. Or rather, who ordered it.
Unsurprisingly, Darnley had no shortage of enemies, political or otherwise. As consort to Mary Queen of Scots and scion of a controversial family, dozens of people would have loved to see him dead, to say nothing of his personal unpopularity. In Kirk o’Field alone lived Duke James Hamilton, an enemy of Darnley’s family with whom he had competing claims for the succession of the Scottish throne and the Douglas family, an enemy of Darnley with whom Hamilton had connections. And that’s in addition to the many, many others who might have come to Kirk o’Field to kill the convalescing Darnley, who was, as rumors had it, stark raving mad from syphilis; the family of the murdered David Rizzio, for instance, was quite prominent. In killing Rizzio, Darnley had also committed two capital offenses—unprovoked murder and high treason—and there is a strong possibility that Darnley’s murder could have been an extrajudicial execution, since, as Consort to the Queen of Scotland, he never could have been tried. Another very viable suspect is James Stewart, Earl of Moray and Mary’s illegitimate brother, who may have been attempting to kill both Mary and Darnley to seize the throne; there is evidence that Mary was expected to be with Darnley that night, leading several historians to believe that the target was not only Darnley, but Mary. James has also been accused of having signed a bond with other Lords in December of the previous year, pledging to dispose of Darnley, which makes it just as likely that Darnley was the sole intended victim. Some even argue that if Bothwell or Mary did it, it might have been James Stewart whispering in their ears and manipulating them the entire time—two birds with one stone for him, getting rid of the troublesome Darnley and casting a pall of suspicion over his political rivals.
Bothwell & Mary:
Despite the pool of suspects, the likeliest to most people of the time was Bothwell, who was already considered an upstart with ideas above his station. According to him, thunder came out of the sky, burning the house and leaving Darnley’s body intact. But according to one lord’s memoirs, Bothwell’s servant would allow no one to see the body. he certainly had motive; Bothwell, remember, wanted power—with Darnley gone, Mary’s hand would likely be his, and everyone knew it. Bothwell was tried by Scotland’s privy council in April of that year in what was largely considered to be a sham trial and acquitted. Queen Elizabeth herself seems to have believed Bothwell was responsible, though she was tactful enough not to mention her opinion on Mary's alleged participation. Soon after, he married Mary. It is still debated whether Mary was a willing participant or not; according to her letters, she chose to marry him to protect herself and her country. It is most likely, however, that she was forced through violence or fear to marry Bothwell. As time passed, many still remained convinced that Bothwell, possibly with Mary’s help, had killed Darnley.
Despite his acquittal, Bothwell’s accused associates were not so lucky. One, a captain, was hanged—likely a scapegoat—and several others were hanged and quartered. One of these men claimed that he, under the orders of Mary and Bothwell, had placed gunpowder under Darnley’s room. He also claimed that Mary had given him a key to the cellar under the pretense of wanting a new bed, which is considered strong evidence for her involvement. Mary also did comparatively little to investigate Darnley’s death, especially when compared with her usual forthrightness. And, on the night of Darnley’s death, Mary posted no guards to his house, as she usually did. Allegedly, Mary—who had visited Darnley the day before his death—had also planned on spending the night with him, but had changed her mind. But despite the suspicion, little could be done to the Queen of Scots.
The Casket Letters:
One of the most interesting parts of the Kirk o’Field mystery are the Casket letters. Soon after Mary’s wedding to Bothwell, James Stewart—another possible suspect in Darnley’s death—rebelled, leading a group of ‘Confederate Lords.’ Bothwell fled to Scandinavia, where he was caught and imprisoned, and died in April 1578, in “appalling” conditions. Mary, however, was put under house arrest (castle arrest?) and abdicated in favor of her infant son, becoming the Regent of Scotland.
Rumors soon spread that she was abdicating because incriminating letters had been found proving her involvement in Darnley’s death. This seems to have begun with James Stewart, who told an ambassador (and not Queen Elizabeth) that he’d “heard of” someone having found letters from Mary to Bothwell about the murder. Then, the Bishop of London, Edmund Grindal, said he’d also heard of these letters, and that they showed Mary urging Bothwell to speed up the plot. According to a document from the Confederate Lords, these letters were found and disseminated before Mary’s abdication, and the existence of these letters was confirmed in a statement to Parliament confirming Mary’s abdication: “it is maist certain that sche wes previe, art and part (complicit) and of the actuale devise (plot) and deid of the foir-nemmit murther of her lawful husband the King our sovereign lord's father.” In the official charges against Mary, called Hay’s Articles, its alleged that a servant of hers was ordered to retrieve the letters but was caught and, after torture, gave the letters to Earl Morton, one of the Confederate Lords.
Thus far, the letters seem like little more than slander. But the so-called Casket letters were soon presented to a group of officers of Queen Elizabeth, and compared with known samples of her handwriting. The results—at least those released officially—were that the Casket letters were genuine. And, suspect as these results may seem, several other independent investigations revealed the same, even by those who wanted strongly to support Mary.
The collection itself, housed in the titular silver casket, contained eight letters, two marriage contracts, and twelve sonnets. The authenticity of the sonnets are questioned;, as one historian pointed out, they are far clumsier than what Mary would likely have written, and don’t fit the genre of “courtly love poetry” she would have known. The marriage contracts, which allegedly depict Mary and Bothwell’s union a full month before they’re known to have wed, seem to be an almost certain forgery, since they include excerpts from events that occurred after they were allegedly written, though some argue that the dates could easily have been either confused or deliberately miswritten. But the letters themselves, if true, are the most damning. The first two, known as “the short Glasgow Letter” and “the Long Glasgow Letter” (note: the texts of both are linked, beginning on page 127, as well as some excerpts. There are several translations, all of which differ, but the overall meaning is the same) allude most obliquely to a murder plot and affair between Mary and Bothwell. Some claim that the disparities in dates may be because all of the writings are Mary’s, but different dates were added later to make the Casket letters more incriminating.
Today, we would be able to compare Mary’s known writing to these letters and determine her guilt once and for all—but the letters are lost. They seem to have remained in Earl Morton’s possession until he was unexpectedly executed, after which they changed hands several times. Eventually, they ended up with the Earl of Gowrie, who refused to give them to Queen Elizabeth. Instead, they were given to King James VI, Mary’s son, and likely destroyed in 1584, though some still hope that they might have been hidden away. Several copies remain, one in French and the others translations into Scots and English. Now, whether or not the letters were authentic is almost impossible to ascertain, and as such, so is the true extent of Mary’s guilt, if she was guilty at all.
Final Thoughts & Questions:
The evidence against Bothwell—and perhaps Mary—certainly seems strong. But some, maybe conspiratorially, think that they were merely scapegoats. The English government certainly had reasons to want them gone, blamed for this crime and forever shadowed by it, their rule and chances for the throne destabilized. It certainly did shadow Mary for the rest of her life, and she never quite escaped suspicion. But Mary and Bothwell, as well as the English government, were clearly not alone in wanting Darnley gone, and the various nobles had motives that were just as strong. James Stewart, Earl of Moray, certainly ended up quite well; he flourished as regent of Scotland (note: before his own assassination where, fun fact, he was the first head of government assassinated via firearm) while Mary was eventually executed after a long period of captivity.
Interestingly, yet another mystery surrounds the events at Kirk o’Field. You may have noticed in my images the inclusion of sections from a sketch; this drawing, from soon after Darnley’s death, was created to summarize the murder scene. But several elements have been a source of confusion for hundreds of years; the artist includes, for instance, a group of riders in the corner. Those riders, however, were not mentioned in eyewitness testimonies until weeks later. How, then, did the artist know about them?

• Who ordered and who carried out Darnley’s death? Exactly how did it happen?
• Was it Bothwell and/or Mary, James Stewart, The Rizzios, James Hamilton, or someone else entirely?
• If Bothwell was responsible, how much did Mary know?
• Are the Casket letters authentic, a mix of fact and fiction, or simply forgeries?

Sources:
https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/map-of-the-murder-of-lord-darnley-1567#
https://www.tudorsociety.com/10-february-1567-murder-henry-stuart-lord-darnley/
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/education/resources/kirk-o-field/
https://www.rse.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Who-Killed-Lord-Darnley.pdf
https://www.historyextra.com/period/tudodownfall-mary-queen-scots-execution-murder-lord-darnley/
https://www.britain-magazine.com/carousel/who-killed-lord-darnley/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Lord_Darnley
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casket_letters
https://archive.org/stream/casketlettersmar00henduoft/casketlettersmar00henduoft_djvu.txt (the letters)
I genuinely thought this was going to be short. hahahahaha

I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example.
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First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500.
Second, let’s make an important distinction:
Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for.
Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there.
Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop.
Determining the intrinsic value of an asset
The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead.
Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.”
PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n}
PV = present value
C = cash flow per period
n = number of payments
i = interest rate
G = growth rate
The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate.
C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS.
The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters.
I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong.
OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years).
I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%.
This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence.
Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar!
I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down.
Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%.
So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds).
Due diligence still has to occur
Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company:
-Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion.
-What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here.
-What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company.
-Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut.
-Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great.
-Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break.
So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in.
Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out.
You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value.
You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them.
A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are.
Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely
That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history.
If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts.
Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations.
I am available for questions in the comments

Good day, Exiles! Long time reader, few times poster here.
With so much interest in the stock market this past week I thought I’d share some real life currency trading strategies - translated to PoE - to help you get rich! This guide is mostly meant as fun and educational, but if you wanna try your hand at this, feel free.
This guide is very long (sorry!), and also contains a little math and a few financial terms (I have tried to keep both at a minimum).
So let’s get started with a few mechanics and market fundamentals of the PoE market:

• First, most of these strategies are based on Fx-trading (foreign exchange) and centered around making arbitrage profits. What is arbitrage? It’s being able to exploit the differences in price of the same asset in different forms (or markets, but since PoE only has a single market this is not relevant). On top of that, arbitrage profits are guaranteed, there is no gambling involved or making predictions. When you execute the arbitrage trade you are in profit.
• Second, arbitrage does in theory not exist on perfect markets. But is the poe market perfect? Nope, far from.
• Third, I’m sure you are all familiar with the theory around supply and demand so we’ll not go deep into that however this also applies to PoE. But what’s interesting about PoE is that we have an endless supply (of most things) and unlimited demand (of some things). We use this to our advantage.
• Fourth, a difference from real life markets is that buying and selling larger amounts of an asset in PoE raises the price. You could in theory argue that the same applies to the stock market for example but then we’re talking about hundreds of thousands of shares while in PoE these larger numbers are in the 10s and 100s and can be acquired by anyone.

1. Exploiting the bid/ask spread

Theory: In foreign exchange, market makers buy and sell currencies at what is called the bid and the ask price. They bid one price to take the currency off your hands, and they ask another price to give it to you (you’ll see this in airports for example). The actual price of the currency is somewhere in between. This spread is how foreign exchange firms make all their profit.
Description: Ever tired selling and buying exalted orbs? We can all agree that the price of an exalted orb is 80 chaos, however when buying one we seem to sometimes be paying 81 chaos. And when selling for chaos perhaps we only receive 79 chaos. This gives a bid/ask spread of 2 chaos. To benefit from this price difference we have to act as the market maker by SELLING our currency instead of exchanging (buying) it. This plays directly on to the fact that there is an unlimited demand in the market.
Execution: Instead of visiting the trade site and proceeding to whisper sellers you act as the seller by listing your currency at a slightly higher price than it’s worth. Never be the buyer!
Profitability: Low (but rises with high volume, see section 5).
Works for: Mainly chaos/exalt

2. Pure arbitrage trades

Theory: In real life you find pure arbitrage trades by noticing price differences on currencies or assets on different markets. For example, you could buy Mexican peso in the US market and instantly sell it in the London market should there be a price difference.
Description: Arbitrage trades in poe can be done with any currency that has either a divination card or a vendor recipe. It’s quite simple, take the chaos-exalt currency pair as an example. What you do is simply buy divination cards like The Saint’s Treasure or Abandoned Wealth for chaos orbs. The cards are essentially exactly the same thing as parts of exalted orbs. The Saint’s Treasure currently trades around 14-17c (minimum stack size 3). So by buying 10 of these at the lower price levels (let’s say 15c), we get two exalted orbs for the price of 150 chaos. Proceed to instantly sell the two exalted orbs for 80 chaos each, and by doing so make a 10 chaos arbitrage profit.
Execution: Buy divination cards that give exalts, fusings, alterations, regrets, scourings (at a lower price than the actual value of the card) - turn in the cards, sell the currency from the cards on the market for chaos. Alternatively, using the vendor system, you buy Orb of Augmentation, Jeweller's orb or Chance orbs in the market at a price that is lower than ¼ (the vendor price) of an Alteration, Fusing or Scouring respectively, then exchange these with the vendor and sell the refined currency in the market for chaos orbs.
Profitability: Medium, requires some math and some time.
Works for: Anything that has a divination card or vendor recipe and a price discrepancy.

3. Exploiting cross-rates

Theory: Cross-rates are a triangulation method used in order to make an arbitrage profit on Fx-trading. By taking a currency pair like USD/GBP and involving a third currency, a “middle hand” like the Euro, you can make an arbitrage profit by exchanging USD into GBP, GBP into Euro and Euro back into USD. In the real world discrepancies occur occasionally but are very small and adjusted quickly.
Description: How do we calculate cross-rates in PoE? Well, exactly how we do it in the real world market ofcourse. With math and the following formula: A/B * B/C = A/C. The answer in this calculation is what the price of an asset should be. So let’s do some math with Chaos orbs, Exalted orbs and Alterations as the middle hand.
A = Chaos, B = Exalt, C = Alteration
A/B = 80/1
B/C = 1/320
Which gives us a theoretical price of A/C (Chaos per Alteration): 80/1 * 1/320 = 0.25.
Buying alterations for chaos currently costs about 0.22-0.24c per alt. So we have a discrepancy from what the price should be.
Execution: We sell 1 exalt for 80 chaos, we buy alterations at the price of 0.24c per alt which yields us 333 alterations. We then proceed to sell 320 alterations in the market for 1 exalted orb. Our profit is 13 alterations = ~4 chaos.
Profitability: Medium-High (but complicated and time consuming).
Works for: Chaos orbs and exalted orbs along with a third currency.

4. Carry-trades

Theory: A carry trade is a trading strategy that utilizes the difference between interest rates in different countries. Let’s say the USA has low interest rates and Britain has high interest rates. You borrow USD, exchange for GBP which you deposit in the UK and let the money grow with the british interest rates while you pay the low interest on the USD you borrowed. You then sell back the GDP to USD in the future using a forward contract today (this is called hedging your position). Your profit is the difference between interest rates minus the fees from the short forward contract.
Description: This exact method does not really translate to PoE as we don’t have any interest. However with some game knowledge you can still utilize carry trades early in the leagues by investing in various things like Orb of Alteration. In the first week of any league chaos orbs are scarce and everyone wants them. So you sell yours for Alterations (which was trading at 7:1 the first week of the new league). Deposit the alterations in your currency tab and sell them back to the market one week later to the current 4:1 price.
Execution: Invest early in currencies that will become more expensive the longer the league goes on. Let time (our interest) do the work for you.
Profitability: Very high (but these kinds of trades are limited to early league)
Works for: Alterations, expensive div cards, expensive prophecies.

5. Volume trading (aka “flipping”)

Theory: Volume trading basically revolves around using high volume to make small gains (in percent) become substantial in nominal value.
Description: Remember the bid/ask spread-exploit? What if you sell your exalted orb for 81 chaos and then again proceed to sell 79 of your chaos orbs for 1 exalt. You’ll end up where you began with 1 exalt but also an extra 2 chaos orbs. Now imagine following this pattern 100 times and you have made 200c. The secret to get rich from this is using more than 1 exalt. If you start with 20. You’ll make 40c profit, at least, as you are now a bulk seller you can increase your spread to 3c, so you’ll make 60 chaos, from flipping your exalts one time.
Do it with 100 exalts, and you’ll make 300 chaos, or 5 exalts.
Execution: Sell chaos for exalts and then exalts for chaos and then chaos for exalt. Use a slightly highelower price for the conversion. Use high volume and print chaos orbs.
Profitability: High (if you got the volume).
Works for: Chaos/Exalt mainly.

6. Value creation

Theory: This is quite different from the rest of the strategies but creating value by refining a product or raw material is essentially the business model for many, many, companies. So why wouldn’t it work in PoE right?
Description: The idea is buying raw material, enhancing products, and selling the finished product at a higher price. But remember; we don’t gamble. So for example, Shavronne’s Wrappings is selling uncorrupted for 38 chaos right now. However a 6-socket version of the chest is selling at around 70 chaos. So we could theoretically buy 350 jewellers orb for the current market price of 21 chaos. Use the crafting table to 6-socket our Shavs with our 350 Jewellers orb and voíla; we made a profit of 70-38-21=11 chaos orbs.
Execution: There are a large number of things you can buy, improve and sell. 6-socket chests as in our example. Prophecy items (require base unique, prophecy and a map) usually make a fine profit as well. I won’t go into more detail but value creation is something you can just always keep in mind.
Profitability: Medium
Works for: Gear, prophecy uniques, jewels affected by divine orbs, alternative quality gems and more!
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Edit 1; Some typos. And I wanna mention once again that these strategies work best if you trade in bulk (high volume). An average player would probably make more currency from just mapping. However, it can be very usefull know some of these mechanics, even if you don't utilize them.